Backing the (Wolf) Pack: Profile Of A Possible Savior: Tubby Smith

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bga1 said:
Monty- not sure where you got that. Here is the info from the Big Ten site currently:

3 point defense - we are 8th in percentage made against us at .354- that is the equivalent of shooting 53% on two point shots- fairly devastating.
We have allowed 594 points on threes- that's worst by a country mile.
The closest to us is 492 points allowed by Penn State.
Teams have attempted 79 more threes against us than the nearest competitor.
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3pt defense for the entire year is lower, yes. I'm talking conference play only, we're 4th in the conference at 34.1%, and I believe it was lower before Al went down if I'm not mistaken, which I could be. I think Tubby's mixing in more zone, which has helped, but he still goes to that mainstay quite a bit.

My only point was that it's gotten better throughout the year, but yeah, teams are still firing away from deep on us. They're hitting less though, and I feel like just from watching, that more are contested threes. And yes, it's still equivalent to shooting 51% on twos, but you can't ignore the actual FG percentage defense, which is below 40% for the year, and is just a tick above 40% in BT play. With the threes, probably puts us middle of the pack, which is right where we are in scoring defense, so it makes sense.
 

Howeda,

I largely agree with you, but I don't think the Gophers job is as good as you do. While being the only school in the state is a bonus, there isn't an overabundance of true top-level talent in this state. While there are more and more Division I players in the state, there are not that many truly elite/game-changing recruits. There are a lot of schools that have much more fertile recruiting bases.

I also think Williams Arena is at best a neutral when it comes to recruiting. There is a subset of players (largely local ones) who get what the experience is like, but lots of players are very attracted to new and NBA-like. Fans might not like that type of environment, but lots of players do. The arena is like buying a house. Everybody probably knows people who have a nice house in a suburban subdivision. And they probably also know somebody who has a bungalow in Minneapolis or St. Paul. Both are totally acceptable, but different tastes for different folks. Williams Arena is that old story and a half. Some players don't want that. Some players look at a newer building and think that is awesome.

And I don't think the history is that great. This program hasn't won a NCAA tournament game since 1997. While many of us can remember that run 14 years ago, the players who the Gophers are recruiting now can't remember that. Some of them were barely out of diapers at that point. That's the reality.
 

anonymous said:
Howeda,

I largely agree with you, but I don't think the Gophers job is as good as you do. While being the only school in the state is a bonus, there isn't an overabundance of true top-level talent in this state. While there are more and more Division I players in the state, there are not that many truly elite/game-changing recruits. There are a lot of schools that have much more fertile recruiting bases.

I also think Williams Arena is at best a neutral when it comes to recruiting. There is a subset of players (largely local ones) who get what the experience is like, but lots of players are very attracted to new and NBA-like. Fans might not like that type of environment, but lots of players do. The arena is like buying a house. Everybody probably knows people who have a nice house in a suburban subdivision. And they probably also know somebody who has a bungalow in Minneapolis or St. Paul. Both are totally acceptable, but different tastes for different folks. Williams Arena is that old story and a half. Some players don't want that. Some players look at a newer building and think that is awesome.

And I don't think the history is that great. This program hasn't won a NCAA tournament game since 1997. While many of us can remember that run 14 years ago, the players who the Gophers are recruiting now can't remember that. Some of them were barely out of diapers at that point. That's the reality.
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You're wrong. Minnesota high school basketball is SEVERLY underrated. Just imagine if Tubby came here a year earlier:

PG- Jordan Taylor
SG- Blake Hoffarber
SF: Rodney Williams
PF: Trevor Mbakwe
C- Jon Leuer

That lineup would not only win the Big Ten this season, it could realistically compete for a national championship.
 

bga1 said:
Every one of them a Parade AA or a Mickey D AA player. One would have to go back and assess what the need was for Tubby for each one of those players. I happen to think that Andre Hollins will excel next year for Tubby - because he has little choice but to play him.
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Fitch was neither. In fact, not even Top 100 rated as HS senior.

Bogans bumped starting G Desmond Allison to WF and starting F Tay Prince to PF.

Parker beat out HS A-A Marvin Stone and Marquis Estill at C.

Fitch bumped Bogans to WF.

Hayes bumped Bogans back to SG.

Rondo was needed at PG but bumped Patrick Sparks to SG.
 

The diagram in the linked "Sea of Blue" article looks pretty familiar - in a bad way. How many times have I seen the Gopher weak side defender hedge/help to the inside and leave the shooter wide open. Sucks that, in doing so and trying to stay in position to get to the outside if the ball goes there, he ends up pratically ineffectual doing either. I get the heeby-jeebies just looking at it.

The ball line defense reminds me of the Tampa Two football defense. It works great if you have a Hall of Fame-caliber middle linebacker and two Pro-Bowl defensive linemen. Of course, if you have those caliber of players, your defense will be good regardless of the system.
 


Monty519 said:
3pt defense for the entire year is lower, yes. I'm talking conference play only, we're 4th in the conference at 34.1%, and I believe it was lower before Al went down if I'm not mistaken, which I could be. I think Tubby's mixing in more zone, which has helped, but he still goes to that mainstay quite a bit.

My only point was that it's gotten better throughout the year, but yeah, teams are still firing away from deep on us. They're hitting less though, and I feel like just from watching, that more are contested threes. And yes, it's still equivalent to shooting 51% on twos, but you can't ignore the actual FG percentage defense, which is below 40% for the year, and is just a tick above 40% in BT play. With the threes, probably puts us middle of the pack, which is right where we are in scoring defense, so it makes sense.
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Okay I see the stat on Big Ten play only and I see your point. However, I will note that we are still attracting teams to shoot threes at a rate well beyond any Big Ten team. That means they are strategizing to take those threes against us- as that is what we offer them.

Considering that we have a very difficult defense to score against down low- because of our superior size it would seem to be a good option to just play sound man to man on the outside- considering the personnel we have left to work with. I just don't think we have the guys to run this. Oh well.

Maybe we will keep playing more zone- the guys seem to understand that better. I do like that Tubby has adjusted with that some.
 

Bad Gopher said:
The diagram in the linked "Sea of Blue" article looks pretty familiar - in a bad way. How many times have I seen the Gopher weak side defender hedge/help to the inside and leave the shooter wide open. Sucks that, in doing so and trying to stay in position to get to the outside if the ball goes there, he ends up pratically ineffectual doing either. I get the heeby-jeebies just looking at it.

The ball line defense reminds me of the Tampa Two football defense. It works great if you have a Hall of Fame-caliber middle linebacker and two Pro-Bowl defensive linemen. Of course, if you have those caliber of players, your defense will be good regardless of the system.
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Presuming the ASOB author was "happy" with Tubby's first 5 years at UK (NCAA title, 3 SEC and 3 SECT championships, 4 Sweet 16 in 5 years), I'll focus on his last 5 years there.

The BLD was used by the 32-4 (19-0 in SEC) #1 ranked UK team in 2003. It was used by the #1 overall NCAA seeded team that was 27-5 in 2004. And also by the 28-6 UK team in 2005. Those 3 teams (collectively) were 87-15 for #1 overall W-L record in Div I despite playing BLD.

The ASOB author didn't like Tubby for whatever reason(s). Entitled to his opinion. But it's not BLD that is the problem.
 

No doubt Jacobson wants this job and would be in the mix after what UNI did last year to kansas, but as SS said, I think Tim Miles has put himself in the conversation with what he is doing at Colorado St., who was horrible when he took over, not to mention that was his NDSU team that made the NCAA's with Woodside and company.
 

anonymous said:
Howeda,

I largely agree with you, but I don't think the Gophers job is as good as you do. While being the only school in the state is a bonus, there isn't an overabundance of true top-level talent in this state. While there are more and more Division I players in the state, there are not that many truly elite/game-changing recruits. There are a lot of schools that have much more fertile recruiting bases.

I also think Williams Arena is at best a neutral when it comes to recruiting. There is a subset of players (largely local ones) who get what the experience is like, but lots of players are very attracted to new and NBA-like. Fans might not like that type of environment, but lots of players do. The arena is like buying a house. Everybody probably knows people who have a nice house in a suburban subdivision. And they probably also know somebody who has a bungalow in Minneapolis or St. Paul. Both are totally acceptable, but different tastes for different folks. Williams Arena is that old story and a half. Some players don't want that. Some players look at a newer building and think that is awesome.

And I don't think the history is that great. This program hasn't won a NCAA tournament game since 1997. While many of us can remember that run 14 years ago, the players who the Gophers are recruiting now can't remember that. Some of them were barely out of diapers at that point. That's the reality.
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I think being the only progam in a major metro area (and in fact an entire state) is huge. I believe the only other state with only one D-1 basketball program is Wyoming and MN is not Wyoming. Virtually every other large city has multiple D-1 programs fighting for players (Boston, Philly, Washington, Pittsburgh, etc.) Not only is there no other BCS program here, there's no other program period. Not even a Boston University or a La Salle to fight for the 9-12 guys on the roster.

I agree that the Barn itself is probably a neutral (great HC advantage but unimpressive empty), that is why the Practice Facility is important. But I think Minnesota is at this point a 'basketball school' and the fact that they are now selling out for the most part is a signficant. UVa for example, has a wonderful new arena, but if they aren't playing Duke or NC, it's 1/3 empty and the atmosphere sucks. There's a lot of schools in that boat. The Big 10 has great attendence for basketball outside of Penn State and maybe Iowa, so I think it skews perception. Playing in front of a loud, packed house isn't as common in other conferences.

And no, our history isn't great. But look at the other schools in that group. What's the history of Oklahoma State or Missouri or even Purdue or Illinois? These are all solid basketball schools, but how many Final Fours have Purdue or Missouri been to in the last 25 years?

I understand if you think that OSU, Florida, Texas etc. are a step above, they probably are. Certainly they have more resources. But coaches and players have egos. And those are football schools to the core. When you can sell out 90,000 seats for a game against a some I-AA school but you can't fill a 12,000 seat arena for a conference game, that stings. When you see quotes from Tim Tebow literally plastered to the side of a building and know that they will never hang quotes from Joakim Noah anywhere, that stings too.
 




Friend Of Tubby said:
Presuming the ASOB author was "happy" with Tubby's first 5 years at UK (NCAA title, 3 SEC and 3 SECT championships, 4 Sweet 16 in 5 years), I'll focus on his last 5 years there.

The BLD was used by the 32-4 (19-0 in SEC) #1 ranked UK team in 2003. It was used by the #1 overall NCAA seeded team that was 27-5 in 2004. And also by the 28-6 UK team in 2005. Those 3 teams (collectively) were 87-15 for #1 overall W-L record in Div I despite playing BLD.

The ASOB author didn't like Tubby for whatever reason(s). Entitled to his opinion. But it's not BLD that is the problem.
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My post is about what I see with my eyes.
 

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