Back to 17 wins to be “completely safe” heading to BTT

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Angry said:
Well SS preseason predictions were correct since we finished 1-1 against them. Nobody had Michigan at the top of the conference preseason.
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You thought the Iowa games should've been labeled "flip a coin", since we split with them?

Sure you did. :sneaky:
 

MplsGopher said:
I doubt most people thought we had a 50-50 chance of winning today, given the 25pt loss in Ann Arbor followed by a 15pt loss in Iowa City.
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Well there are only 2 possible outcomes to any basketball game, win or lose. In that sense, every game is 50-50.

But truthfully, no, though the +195;m/l was tempting.
 

Ope3 said:
Well there are only 2 possible outcomes to any basketball game, win or lose. In that sense, every game is 50-50.
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But of course (as I'm sure you understand), that doesn't mean each outcome has a probability of 1/n (in this case 1/2).
 

MplsGopher said:
You thought the Iowa games should've been labeled "flip a coin", since we split with them?

Sure you did. :sneaky:
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No because everyone knew Iowa was going to be good preseason. Michigan will have it least 4 more losses in the B1G but that might still may be good enough to win the conference title.
 

Angry said:
No because everyone knew Iowa was going to be good preseason. Michigan will have it least 4 more losses in the B1G but that might still may be good enough to win the conference title.
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That's just fine. I understand what your point is, and I don't think you're wrong, in the sense of pre-season projections.

My point all along was simply advocating for the labeling of the remaining games to track what actually happens during the season. But SS has made his decision that he doesn't want to do that, and that's what it is.
 


Angry said:
No because everyone knew Iowa was going to be good preseason. Michigan will have it least 4 more losses in the B1G but that might still may be good enough to win the conference title.
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Id be stunned if Michigan loses 4 more times in the conference, assuming they are healthy
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Id be stunned if Michigan loses 4 more times in the conference, assuming they are healthy
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It only takes one team (in this case us) to give the template on how to beat a team. Dickinson is good but he looked like a freshman passing out of the double team today.
Given that Iowa has a tougher conference schedule I still think Michigan wins, but it’s going to bloodbath. If all games are played I’m thinking Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin to be around that 14-6 or 15-5 mark.
 

If you had to pick today, what is the number of teams from our conference that makes the Sweet Sixteen? How about the Final Four?
 

Ope3 said:
Well there are only 2 possible outcomes to any basketball game, win or lose. In that sense, every game is 50-50.

But truthfully, no, though the +195;m/l was tempting.
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Surprised the Gophers were only +195 on the ML I would have guessed a lot more. Vegas must be considering our amazing home/away split. I bet Minnesota +410 when they were down 2 pts in Ann Arbor 13 minutes into the 1st half. Of course that turned out horribly, but I felt my odds were good.
 



MplsGopher said:
That's just fine. I understand what your point is, and I don't think you're wrong, in the sense of pre-season projections.

My point all along was simply advocating for the labeling of the remaining games to track what actually happens during the season. But SS has made his decision that he doesn't want to do that, and that's what it is.
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Start a thread and make it happen. SS doesn’t have the only thread regarding the NCAA tournament. I’d love to see your thoughts and updates. I’m being 100% sincere.
 

I got +215 last night around midnight, and I was wondering if I should wait till game time glad I didn’t.
 

golfing18now said:
If you had to pick today, what is the number of teams from our conference that makes the Sweet Sixteen? How about the Final Four?
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It’s all about the draw. I think best case for Iowa is elite 8. Say there a 1,2,3 or 4 seed They’d have to draw another high seed like Creighton on their side of the bracket. If they play a sound defensive team donezo. Michigan and Wisconsin have the most well rounded teams and have the best chance to go to the final four (that felt gross typing)
Dosunmu is Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde but I could see Illinois going on a 3-4 game run.
I’ll say one FF and 5 SS
 






I thought flip a coins would be a hard lift. Looks much more doable now. Still alot work to be done as no easy day in bigten.

Could it be that michigan is really not that good? They played no one in the non conference and have played what has to be the easiest big ten schedule up to this point. They also only play iowa, illinois, ohio state, indiana, rutgers once this season.
 
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golf said:
I thought flip a coins would be a hard lift. Looks much more doable now. Still alot work to be done as no easy day in bigten.

Could it be that michigan is really not that good? They played no one in the non conference and have played what has to be the easiest big ten schedule up to this point. They also only play iowa, illinois, ohio state, indiana, rutgers once this season.
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Eh....

5th in Kenpom
4th in T-rank
11th in BPI
4th in Strength of Record
5th in NET
T5th in Q1 wins

I think they really are that good
 

golf said:
I thought flip a coins would be a hard lift. Looks much more doable now. Still alot work to be done as no easy day in bigten.

Could it be that michigan is really not that good? They played no one in the non conference and have played what has to be the easiest big ten schedule up to this point. They also only play iowa, illinois, ohio state, indiana, rutgers once this season.
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they drilled Minnesota. they drilled wisconsin. they are both good teams. It's ok to accept we are a good team this year
 

Initial post updated through Nebraska postponement. We’ll keep the number of wins as is until we hear if game will be rescheduled.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Final Four I’d go 1, Sweet 16 4.
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Yeah, that sounds about right where you and @Angry have it projected.

I'd say about 8-9 get invited.
6 to the 2nd round
4 to the Sweet Sixteen
2 to the Elite Eight
1 to the Final Four

Although with many of the heavyweights having a down year (Duke/Kentucky/North Carolina/Virginia (trending in the right direction)/ACC in general and the Big Ten pretty deep, it would seem this would be the best chance in awhile to break the national championship drought. Gonzaga looks awfully good though.
 

golfing18now said:
If you had to pick today, what is the number of teams from our conference that makes the Sweet Sixteen? How about the Final Four?
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Great question! I'm going to go conservative and guess 3 for the final 16 (although I'm more tempted to say 4). If there really are a boat load of Big Ten teams in the tournament, at least a couple of them likely will face each other in their second game (like we did with Michigan State two years ago).

I won't make a final four prediction. You can have the best conference in the country and still get no final four teams. We may have the best conference depth in the country but I'm not sure some of our highest ranked teams (like Iowa) have what it takes to go that far and others, like Illinois, may have the talent but could also shoot themselves in the foot along the way. I still think Michigan has what it takes to get there.

There are also those teams who simply get hot and play their best basketball at the end of the season. Remember that Kansas had 11 losses before winning the national championship in 1988 and Villanova had 10 before winning the national championship 3 years earlier. We haven't had a champion like that in some time but Connecticut had 8 losses before winning in 2014 and the national runner-up, Kentucky, had 10 prior to losing the championship game.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Start a thread and make it happen. SS doesn’t have the only thread regarding the NCAA tournament. I’d love to see your thoughts and updates. I’m being 100% sincere.
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Thanks, but I have zero credibility. It would really just be a re-sorting of the remaining games into the three labels based on Big Ten standings and AP rankings. Like, obviously the home game against Michigan would've been upgraded into a "Big boy". And if we were scheduled to play Mich St again, at this point, it would probably get downgraded into the coin flip (or maybe even must win?) category. That type of thing.

In my ideal world, the 2nd post of the thread would be the "updated" version that people could compare the first post to, if they wanted. Or something like that. Not that important.
 

golfing18now said:
If you had to pick today, what is the number of teams from our conference that makes the Sweet Sixteen? How about the Final Four?
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probably would say 5-6 in the S16 as we may have several that end up on the same seed lines or close and get to avoid each other. FF I'd say one as that's just playing the odds but this year feels so wide open that number could be 0 up to 3 (MI, WI, Iowa, MN, Ill all have the horses to get hot and make a run).
 

upnorthkid said:
FF I'd say one as that's just playing the odds but this year feels so wide open that number could be 0 up to 3 (MI, WI, Iowa, MN, Ill all have the horses to get hot and make a run).
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It's very weird seeing someone sincerely include us in that list after reading this board all offseason. What a fun year!
 


With no Nebraska makeup does SS think 16 wins puts them in the tourney?

I do think 16 would put them them in if Nebraska doesn’t get made up
 


SelectionSunday said:
Yes.

I’ll update the thread if or when the Nebraska game is officially announced by the Big Ten as canceled.
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Question for you:
Do you still think 17-10 is a necessary record to feel safe or is too hard to tell? My thoughts are around the quality of wins so far and wondering how you view the rest of the country.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Question for you:
Do you still think 17-10 is a necessary record to feel safe or is too hard to tell? My thoughts are around the quality of wins so far and wondering how you view the rest of the country.
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Gophers are in a really good position. They already have (based on NET) 4 really good wins (Iowa, Michigan, OSU, Saint Louis) and another decent one (MSU) that could get better if MSU figures it out. That’s more quality wins than most teams projected into my Field of 68 have. I still think 17 is a lock. Get a road win before taking a home loss, and then I’ll feel even better about it.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Gophers are in a really good position. They already have (based on NET) 4 really good wins (Iowa, Michigan, OSU, Saint Louis) and another decent one (MSU) that could get better if MSU figures it out. That’s more quality wins than most teams projected into my Field of 68 have. I still think 17 is a lock. Get a road win before taking a home loss, and then I’ll feel even better about it.
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If the Gophers take care of business at home and on the road these next two Saturdays I would think they would become "locks" on the ESPN yearly tournament watchlist or at the very least "should be in" category.

Which would be kind of a nice reprieve from our annual appearance on the "work left to do" category.

Last night's Purdue win really adds some luster to a possible road win at Purdue!
 

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