Back to 17 wins to be “completely safe” heading to BTT

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The bright side following tonight's contest in Ann Arbor, the Gophers at 10-3 have now fulfilled the 13 game minimum requirement for consideration by the NCAA Tournament Committee.
 

Ope3 said:
The bright side following tonight's contest in Ann Arbor, the Gophers at 10-3 have now fulfilled the 13 game minimum requirement for consideration by the NCAA Tournament Committee.
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Hang a banner
 


MplsGopher said:
I'm the dbag, because you can't admit you're wrong? Sure thing.
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Do you actually think when I made these Big Ten "tier" projections before the season I expected to be 100% right. Of course I didn't. Never have expected that, never will, that's why they're called projections. My tier projections reveal that I picked Michigan no better than 4th. Blasphemy!

Out of curiosity, where'd you pick Michigan before the season started? Full disclosure (see below), I picked them 6th.

 
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I think your preseason projection of 6th was very good based on their style of play ... what none of knew at the time were the changes Michigan made coming into the season.

Howard emphasized in his post game press conference how CRITICAL it was for them to get better / MUCH BETTER on the defensive end. I watched a couple of their games earlier this year and it was clear. They were going to get after it on the defensive end.

In their closest game of the season against Penn State (62-58 at home), they held Penn State to 30.8% shooting. We were 32.4% from the floor and scored 57 last night. Against Penn State, Michigan shot 44.4% from the floor versus 56.9% last night against us. Even with having an "Off Night on Offense" against Penn State, they still won.

Will they always hold teams in the 30-40% shooting range ... No, because sometimes a player or team is just going have a great game against you.

My biggest takeaway from these numbers is ... if you want to move to the top of the Big Ten, you do it with Defense. Funny how that also tends to be the case in the NBA ... when deep in the playoffs, the best defensive teams tend to win.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Do you actually think when I made these Big Ten "tier" projections before the season I expected to be 100% right. Of course I didn't. Never have expected that, never will, that's why they're called projections. My tier projections reveal that I picked Michigan no better than 4th. Blasphemy!

Out of curiosity, where'd you pick Michigan before the season started? Full disclosure (see below), I picked them 6th.
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The point I was trying to make is so different from what you're responding to here.

- Nothing I've said was ever intended to critique, let alone insult, your projection for this season or your projection abilities.
- It's unquestionable that your projections will be better than mine, because mine would be little better than random.


The only point I was trying to make was: since nobody would ever get the preseason projection perfectly correct, and since there would seem to be almost zero hardship in updating the OP say once a week (when new AP rankings come out, for example) to reflect the reality that a preseason projection can almost never be correct ............. why is it such a big deal to do that???
 

MplsGopher said:
The point I was trying to make is so different from what you're responding to here.

- Nothing I've said was ever intended to critique, let alone insult, your projection for this season or your projection abilities.
- It's unquestionable that your projections will be better than mine, because mine would be little better than random.


The only point I was trying to make was: since nobody would ever get the preseason projection perfectly correct, and since there would seem to be almost zero hardship in updating the OP say once a week (when new AP rankings come out, for example) to reflect the reality that a preseason projection can almost never be correct ............. why is it such a big deal to do that???
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Fair enough. Got it.

To answer your last question, I did that the last couple seasons (changed the original tiers on occasion), but it messed with the number of games (consistency) in each tier and, hence, I got tired of doing it, and being asked to do it.

We all have different opinions on where the games/teams should be tiered as the season goes along, understandable, but also what makes it a hassle. Nothing more than that. And admittedly, I think part of it is I like to see how it all looks at the end of the regular season (how did I do tiering the games/teams?).

My apologies, I let yesterday get the best of me.
 

Personally, I enjoy keeping it the same so can watch the progression as the season goes on. Constantly changing things would cause me to lose interest.
 

golf said:
Personally, I enjoy keeping it the same so can watch the progression as the season goes on. Constantly changing things would cause me to lose interest.
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It wouldn't be hard to keep the OP as is from the start ... and then have another post that gets occasionally updated with new information? So people could pick which version they prefer?
 



SelectionSunday said:
Fair enough. Got it.

To answer your last question, I did that the last couple seasons (changed the original tiers on occasion), but it messed with the number of games (consistency) in each tier and, hence, I got tired of doing it, and being asked to do it.

We all have different opinions on where the games/teams should be tiered as the season goes along, understandable, but also what makes it a hassle. Nothing more than that. And admittedly, I think part of it is I like to see how it all looks at the end of the regular season (how did I do tiering the games/teams?).

My apologies, I let yesterday get the best of me.
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I’d put him on ignore
 


Hodger has been doing this for many, many years and i for one really enjoy and appreciate it. I do not feel the need to micromanage how he does it!
 

Ope3 said:
Why not just do that yourself? As you said, it wouldn't be difficult.
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I could. But it would be much better if it came from someone who has credibility (as opposed to me: zero).
 



Seems like we will meet expectations in bigboy and must wins. Also seems like expectations in flip coin are very reachable. At this point gophers are in a good place.
 


If we get to 17 wins and all of our loses are as ugly and one sided as they have been so far, do we still make the tourney? Especially if all the loses are on the road?
 

Not that I think this is likely but I wonder what happens if we go 17-0 at home and 0-10 on the road. In theory the wins are too good we get in I guess. But at some point does the committee say that they cant reward a team that didn't win a single road game
 

Otis said:
If we get to 17 wins and all of our loses are as ugly and one sided as they have been so far, do we still make the tourney? Especially if all the loses are on the road?
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there would be enough big wins in there that I'd imagine yes, particularly with how good everyone is feeling the B10 is this year
 

Even though we've been blown out all of our losses are vs Quad 1 teams. Isn't the joke that it's better to lose against a Quad 1 team than barely beat a Quad 4 team?

At this rate we're a 3 seed.
 

tmvander said:
Even though we've been blown out all of our losses are vs Quad 1 teams. Isn't the joke that it's better to lose against a Quad 1 team than barely beat a Quad 4 team?

At this rate we're a 3 seed.
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I don't think we'll be anywhere close to a #3. As this thread states, we likely need a 17-10 record to get in. While that's doable, it's no sure thing. Even if we do a little better (like 18-9), that probably wouldn't get us anything better than a #7 (and likely worse) unless we made a run to the finals of the Big Ten tournament. I don't think that's likely because we haven't been competitive with three of the top four teams (Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and we were just thrashed by Iowa in the rematch after taking overtime to beat them in the first meeting. I think we might be able to beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament if we faced them but I have my doubts that we could beat Michigan or Illinois anywhere. I guess we'll find out about Michigan in the next game.
 

Otis said:
If we get to 17 wins and all of our loses are as ugly and one sided as they have been so far, do we still make the tourney? Especially if all the loses are on the road?
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If we get to 17 wins the gophers have some combination of 7 quad one or road quad 2 wins.
They’re 10-10 in the toughest conference
They’re unbeaten out of conference with a fringe top 25 win plus an ACC win

A 17 win gopher team going into the big ten tourney is a stone cold lock
 

cjbfbp said:
I don't think we'll be anywhere close to a #3. As this thread states, we likely need a 17-10 record to get in. While that's doable, it's no sure thing. Even if we do a little better (like 18-9), that probably wouldn't get us anything better than a #7 (and likely worse) unless we made a run to the finals of the Big Ten tournament. I don't think that's likely because we haven't been competitive with three of the top four teams (Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and we were just thrashed by Iowa in the rematch after taking overtime to beat them in the first meeting. I think we might be able to beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament if we faced them but I have my doubts that we could beat Michigan or Illinois anywhere. I guess we'll find out about Michigan in the next game.
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You're missing the humor but that's ok. I still think we are good enough to make the tourney though.
 

tmvander said:
You're missing the humor but that's ok. I still think we are good enough to make the tourney though.
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Sorry, I didn't read it that way. Hard to make that clear in writing sometimes.
 

cjbfbp said:
Sorry, I didn't read it that way. Hard to make that clear in writing sometimes.
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Ha no worries...clearly we're not a 3 seed getting out butts kicked but the way NET favors teams with strange things.
 






Well SS preseason predictions were correct since we finished 1-1 against them. Nobody had Michigan at the top of the conference preseason.
 

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