Are We Headed Towards 4 Conferences?

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Gophers_4life said:
That is correct. Only Notre Dame is specified in the contract with a pre-agreed upon increase should they be added. There is no Pro Rata clause.
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The ecalator goes up to $10B. That equates to around $2.3B potentially additional revenue over the life of the 7-year contract. The yearly additional amount would be around $328.6M at $10B. The contract may have a predetermined amount for the Irish, but there's no way it's even remotely close to that...I can't see the Irish getting a higher share than existing B1G teams. That extra $2.3B would be enough to add four teams at full shares while maintaining the existing payout amounts.
 

PMWinSTP said:
The ecalator goes up to $10B. That equates to around $2.3B potentially additional revenue over the life of the 7-year contract. The yearly additional amount would be around $328.6M at $10B. The contract may have a predetermined amount for the Irish, but there's no way it's even remotely close to that...I can't see the Irish getting a higher share than existing B1G teams. That extra $2.3B would be enough to add four teams at full shares while maintaining the existing payout amounts.
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Do you have a link to the $10B? Thank you

I think there's a big difference between getting a guaranteed increase specifically for Notre Dame as opposed to language that just basically is acting as a backstop from having to throw the whole contract in the trash and start over. It doesn't mean the networks are obligated, in any way, to actually pay up that $10B, depending on whom is added.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Do you have a link to the $10B? Thank you

I think there's a big difference between getting a guaranteed increase specifically for Notre Dame as opposed to language that just basically is acting as a backstop from having to throw the whole contract in the trash and start over. It doesn't mean the networks are obligated, in any way, to actually pay up that $10B, depending on whom is added.
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www.deseret.com

Does this reported clause in Big Ten’s new media rights deal indicate expansion isn’t over?

A reported escalation clause in the agreement could net the Big Ten nearly $10 billion over the term of the 7-year deal if it expands beyond 16 teams.
www.deseret.com www.deseret.com
www.actionnetwork.com

Big Ten Lands Historic Media Rights Deal; More Expansion Ahead?

Read on for Brett McMurphy's report about the Big Ten Conference's new historic media rights deal and potential expansion.
www.actionnetwork.com www.actionnetwork.com
www.insidenu.com

BREAKING: Big Ten announces media rights deal worth nearly $8 billion

Kevin Warren’s conference is not done yet.
www.insidenu.com www.insidenu.com
 

I do think big ten expansion is possible if it ended up being 4 of:
Florida state, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia tech, Notre dame


I just don’t think Washington/Oregon add enough value.
Perhaps those two could be part of a combo that includes 2-3 of those other 5.
 

PMWinSTP said:
www.deseret.com

Does this reported clause in Big Ten’s new media rights deal indicate expansion isn’t over?

A reported escalation clause in the agreement could net the Big Ten nearly $10 billion over the term of the 7-year deal if it expands beyond 16 teams.
www.deseret.com www.deseret.com
www.actionnetwork.com

Big Ten Lands Historic Media Rights Deal; More Expansion Ahead?

Read on for Brett McMurphy's report about the Big Ten Conference's new historic media rights deal and potential expansion.
www.actionnetwork.com www.actionnetwork.com
www.insidenu.com

BREAKING: Big Ten announces media rights deal worth nearly $8 billion

Kevin Warren’s conference is not done yet.
www.insidenu.com www.insidenu.com
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Thanks!

Right though, what you refer to here is not a guaranteed amount of increase. Only Notre Dame has that explicitly spelled out.

This is just providing a pathway to do increases without needing to draw up a whole new contract. It doesn't guarantee any amount for any specific school. They'd have to haggle on it.
 


I know my question here isn’t exactly in line with what this thread is about, but didn’t the Big10’s presidents and AD’s meet this week to finalize the football schedules for the next 2 years? Article in The Athletic said they were but I’ve heard nothing. Did it get pushed back???
 

Some guy said:
I do think big ten expansion is possible if it ended up being 4 of:
Florida state, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia tech, Notre dame


I just don’t think Washington/Oregon add enough value.
Perhaps those two could be part of a combo that includes 2-3 of those other 5.
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No chance B1G goes after the first four IMHO. I see Irish, Washington, Cal and Stanford to get to 20.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Thanks!

Right though, what you refer to here is not a guaranteed amount of increase. Only Notre Dame has that explicitly spelled out.

This is just providing a pathway to do increases without needing to draw up a whole new contract. It doesn't guarantee any amount for any specific school. They'd have to haggle on it.
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Wild guess and massage all you want. B1G will get the additional $$ if it adds four more teams, no question in my mind, as the math works out almost perfectly for that to happen. That $10B number wasn't done by accident. Keeps all current members whole with four new teams at full shares. Depending on the team, they will come in with a graduated share or start with a full share (like Irish would likely get).
 

U2Gopher said:
I know my question here isn’t exactly in line with what this thread is about, but didn’t the Big10’s presidents and AD’s meet this week to finalize the football schedules for the next 2 years? Article in The Athletic said they were but I’ve heard nothing. Did it get pushed back???
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Yup. saw a report online that no decision was announced. the article said this came as a surprise because it was believed that the AD's had figured out most of the issues, like protected rivalries and so forth.

That in turn has people speculating that there is still a chance of further expansion. On the expansion front, I've seen several people stressing that - if the B1G expands, it wants to add more teams in the Western time zone so that USC and UCLA are not left on an island when it comes to scheduling.

so, if you want to speculate and connect the dots........no decision announced on future schedules.......Pac-12 can't come up with a media deal.......B1G wants more Western teams.......does that equal something happening with Washington and Oregon? Inquiring minds want to know.
 



short ornery norwegian said:
so, if you want to speculate and connect the dots........no decision announced on future schedules.......Pac-12 can't come up with a media deal.......B1G wants more Western teams.......does that equal something happening with Washington and Oregon? Inquiring minds want to know.
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Certainly makes some sense. I’ve read that Oregon and Washington could potentially come in with less than a full share with little to no reduction of the other shares so long as what they were getting was more than what the new Pac-12 deal was going to be.
 

PMWinSTP said:
B1G will get the additional $$ if it adds four more teams, no question in my mind, as the math works out almost perfectly for that to happen. That $10B number wasn't done by accident. Keeps all current members whole with four new teams at full shares. Depending on the team, they will come in with a graduated share or start with a full share (like Irish would likely get).
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You're free to speculate that the Big Ten would be able to get the $$$. Just fine. You might even end up being right.

I just want it clear that that the escalator you've brought is not in any way, shape, or form a guaranteed increase.
 

Conference realignment, especially among major conferences, is one of the biggest, most successful forms of clickbait that exists for college athletics.

All the major outlets are pushing over small children right now to put articles out to make sure they get their share of clicks, that the Big Ten is about to add four more PAC schools.


This is the source that everyone is pointing back to, I'll let you decide if you want to click it or not: https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/sources-insist-b1g-isnt-done-raiding-pac-12/

It's pure clickbait trash. Hiding behind "sources say" and no actual quotes from anyone who matters.


Don't be shocked when it doesn't happen.
 

Gophers_4life said:
You're free to speculate that the Big Ten would be able to get the $$$. Just fine. You might even end up being right.

I just want it clear that that the escalator you've brought is not in any way, shape, or form a guaranteed increase.
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All but guaranteed. Zero chance B1G adds teams without getting that additional revenue, they will make sure of that happening.
 



Gophers_4life said:
Conference realignment, especially among major conferences, is one of the biggest, most successful forms of clickbait that exists for college athletics.

All the major outlets are pushing over small children right now to put articles out to make sure they get their share of clicks, that the Big Ten is about to add four more PAC schools.


This is the source that everyone is pointing back to, I'll let you decide if you want to click it or not: https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/sources-insist-b1g-isnt-done-raiding-pac-12/

It's pure clickbait trash. Hiding behind "sources say" and no actual quotes from anyone who matters.


Don't be shocked when it doesn't happen.
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That's pretty much how USC/UCLA broke. It's always private or unnamed sources. This is just sports, but that's how a lot of big journalism stories happen, anonymous sources.
 

PMWinSTP said:
All but guaranteed. Zero chance B1G adds teams without getting that additional revenue, they will make sure of that happening.
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It's not like the Big Ten is going to say "OK guys, we're gonna add four more PAC schools ... AND THEN we'll talk to our TV partners, gee I sure hope they give us pro rata increases, here we goooo!"


No. That's not how it works.

The negotiations with the TV partners will be completed before any invitations ever get made public.

If the negotiations don't go well enough ... then the invites will never go out, in the first place.


I'm saying, that could well be the case. It seems to me that you're saying something more like "the Big Ten will force it to happen, no matter what!" I disagree.
 

PMWinSTP said:
That's pretty much how USC/UCLA broke. It's always private or unnamed sources. This is just sports, but that's how a lot of big journalism stories happen, anonymous sources.
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The difference is when someone like Pete Thamel or Brett McMurphy breaking it ... you listen.


When it's Joe Nobody of thingamajig .com breaking it, then he's lying and fishing for clicks.
 

Gophers_4life said:
It's not like the Big Ten is going to say "OK guys, we're gonna add four more PAC schools ... AND THEN we'll talk to our TV partners, gee I sure hope they give us pro rata increases, here we goooo!"


No. That's not how it works.

The negotiations with the TV partners will be completed before any invitations ever get made public.

If the negotiations don't go well enough ... then the invites will never go out, in the first place.


I'm saying, that could well be the case. It seems to me that you're saying something more like "the Big Ten will force it to happen, no matter what!" I disagree.
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No force, they've already agreed to the escalator $$ should expansion happen. Thanks for the rest of the post, captain obvious.
 

As I've correctly said multiple times now, the escalator clause is just a backstop so that they don't have to throw the contract into the trash.

It's not a guarantee by any means.


The Big Ten will be in the same room with their TV partners working something out, IF there's something to even work out, at all.

They just did the deal. They're not going to blow it all up.


If Wash and Oregon are really that desperate that they'd take half shares for 20 years or something absurd, well, maybe there's a chance. I don't think that's a good look, to be honest, for the conference.

But we'll see if anything comes of it. I have my doubts.
 

They did all the numbers, already.

If Wash and Oregon were worth similar to the conference as what USC and UCLA were worth ....... then they would've been added at the same time.


Therefore, they're not worth that much. Plain and simple.



So now if Wash and Ore are so desperate that they're crawling and begging to be accepted at lower shares .... well, maybe.
 

I think the Big Ten adds Washington and Oregon. Add some insurance to keep USC and UCLA. Travel partners.

I have no sources or facts. Just wild speculation. Thats how I roll.
 

Gophers_4life said:
They did all the numbers, already.

If Wash and Oregon were worth similar to the conference as what USC and UCLA were worth ....... then they would've been added at the same time.


Therefore, they're not worth that much. Plain and simple.



So now if Wash and Ore are so desperate that they're crawling and begging to be accepted at lower shares .... well, maybe.
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Good grief. Thanks for setting us all straight. Glad we have such a knowledgeable insider like yourself. SMH
 

West Fargo Gopher Fan said:
I think the Big Ten adds Washington and Oregon. Add some insurance to keep USC and UCLA. Travel partners.

I have no sources or facts. Just wild speculation. Thats how I roll.
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Being a Gopher fan living near Seattle, I want Washington to join the B1G. However, I think they take a Bay Area school first to nab the sixth largest media market, and the first choice is most likely Stanford. Ranked 4th academics and seems more committed to sports than Cal.

Then they add Washington for the 12th media market, large public school (50,000) and rank 54 in academics and have a huge commitment to sports.

Then it comes down to how many West Coast teams does the Big Ten want to have? If it’s 5, then both Cal and Oregon get in. If it’s 4, then a choice needs to be made.

Do they take Cal to solidify the Bay Area market, or do they take Oregon to get into the 21st largest media market and also not leave Washington to be the school with the furthest travel needs of any B1G school.

The knock on Oregon is they don’t quite fit the Big Ten profile. Portland is the 21st media market, Oregon is a very small public school (about 20,000 total enrollment), and rank 105 for academics (US News). If it wasn’t for Phil Knight money, they’d still be considered at the same level as Washington State and Oregon State.

The knock on Cal is they seem to support their Olympic sports more than football or basketball.
 


WAGopher said:
Being a Gopher fan living near Seattle, I want Washington to join the B1G. However, I think they take a Bay Area school first to nab the sixth largest media market, and the first choice is most likely Stanford. Ranked 4th academics and seems more committed to sports than Cal.

Then they add Washington for the 12th media market, large public school (50,000) and rank 54 in academics and have a huge commitment to sports.

Then it comes down to how many West Coast teams does the Big Ten want to have? If it’s 5, then both Cal and Oregon get in. If it’s 4, then a choice needs to be made.

Do they take Cal to solidify the Bay Area market, or do they take Oregon to get into the 21st largest media market and also not leave Washington to be the school with the furthest travel needs of any B1G school.

The knock on Oregon is they don’t quite fit the Big Ten profile. Portland is the 21st media market, Oregon is a very small public school (about 20,000 total enrollment), and rank 105 for academics (US News). If it wasn’t for Phil Knight money, they’d still be considered at the same level as Washington State and Oregon State.

The knock on Cal is they seem to support their Olympic sports more than football or basketball.
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Oregon is also a relatively low research school, because the state of Oregon created a completely separate university/institution to be the state's medical school and do medical research, up in Portland.
 


Panthadad2 said:
If BG10 goes after 4 more PAC12 schools, it would make sense that they would be Washington, Stanford, Cal, and Oregon in that order.

View attachment 24293

Equity in Athletics

ope.ed.gov ope.ed.gov
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The numbers that the Big Ten's TV partners are going to care about are projected TV ratings.

Not sure what these numbers prove, in that regard. The sources of these revenues is all over the place, but not the least of which are donations or ROI on investing those endowed gifts (Stanford).
 


There's a rumor out there right now that Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah may be heading to the Big 12...
 

disco said:
There's a rumor out there right now that Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah may be heading to the Big 12...
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If that happens, I bet Oregon and Washington (and potentially Cal/Stanford) would take a lower payout to be in the Big 10 if needed.
 

Some guy said:
I do not agree with that assessment.
It may be Stanford because it’s Stanford.
Colorado and Arizona would be better gets than Cal.
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Can't see a scenario where either ends up in the B1G. Both Berkeley and Stanford are globally ranked Top 5 universities.
 

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