Are We Headed Towards 4 Conferences?

[disco]

Good for them. Merging the MW into the Pac name seems the most logical. It looks like a pretty good conference on paper, football and basketball.

That's a pretty good conference. I'd say it's a step above all the other G5 conferences.

 

[PMWinSTP]

That's a pretty good conference. I'd say it's a step above all the other G5 conferences.

Probably as good or better than the new Big 12.

 

[MplsGopher]

https://ndsmcobserver.com/2023/11/notre-dame-extends-tv-contract-with-nbc-through-2029/

Notre Dame extends TV contract with NBC through 2029​

On Saturday, Notre Dame and Comcast NBCUniversal announced a new TV deal running through 2029.

Notre Dame is expected to receive around $50 million per year from NBC, in addition to the $17 million it receives from the ACC. Notre Dame’s total compensation is slightly less than what members of the Big Ten would receive. NBC has held the rights to Notre Dame football since 1991.

 

[MplsGopher]

$67M per year total, since they get a half cut of ACC revenue per year in addition to NBC for football. (And a weak tie-in to the Orange Bowl.)


This means major conference realignment for confs east of the Rockies is done until 2030 timeframe. ACC, Big 12 are the half step down, and Big Ten and SEC are going to be stable until then. Those confs are going to feel out their new memberships and give it some time to digest.

The new PAC (merger with Mountain West) will be another half step down, but clearly the best G conf.

 

[Ope3]

$67M per year total, since they get a half cut of ACC revenue per year in addition to NBC for football. (And a weak tie-in to the Orange Bowl.)


This means major conference realignment for confs east of the Rockies is done until 2030 timeframe. ACC, Big 12 are the half step down, and Big Ten and SEC are going to be stable until then. Those confs are going to feel out their new memberships and give it some time to digest.

The new PAC (merger with Mountain West) will be another half step down, but clearly the best G conf.

I will bet the under on the 2030 realignment timeframe. Big.

 

[MplsGopher]

I said major. You don’t win unless Big Ten or SEC.

SEC has a shiny new contract and content with just adding OU and Texas. If there had been worthy available additional schools to get to 18 (Kansas, for example), they would’ve already been added.

Both are waiting on ACC, which is off limits until 2036. The GoR cannot be defeated in court. Lawyers have sucked hundreds of hours billed trying to find a crack in it. Airtight.

A school like FSU might just be thick skulked enough to conjure a way to convince donors to pay for a negotiated massive buyout. Not impossible to imagine. That’s your only path to victory here

 

[Ope3]

I said major. You don’t win unless Big Ten or SEC.

SEC has a shiny new contract and content with just adding OU and Texas. If there had been worthy available additional schools to get to 18 (Kansas, for example), they would’ve already been added.

Both are waiting on ACC, which is off limits until 2036. The GoR cannot be defeated in court. Lawyers have sucked hundreds of hours billed trying to find a crack in it. Airtight.

A school like FSU might just be thick skulked enough to conjure a way to convince donors to pay for a negotiated massive buyout. Not impossible to imagine. That’s your only path to victory here

It only takes 1. GoR could also be negotiated.

If only the ACC (or Big 12) adds/subtracts I would declare that a "push".

 

[Some guy]

$67M per year total, since they get a half cut of ACC revenue per year in addition to NBC for football. (And a weak tie-in to the Orange Bowl.)


This means major conference realignment for confs east of the Rockies is done until 2030 timeframe. ACC, Big 12 are the half step down, and Big Ten and SEC are going to be stable until then. Those confs are going to feel out their new memberships and give it some time to digest.

The new PAC (merger with Mountain West) will be another half step down, but clearly the best G conf.

It is interesting that 67 million is Described as “slightly less”

Notre dame math.

 

[MplsGopher]

@Ope3 outside of current/future ACC members (including ND), there are no schools left that could still be added that they wouldn't have already added.

It's stable.

No current ACC members will be allowed to leave. That's controlled by ESPN.

Why would they, for example with Florida State, allow a property which they already own at a much cheaper price (that FSU agreed to and signed a contract for!) to break their deal and go someplace like the SEC where they'll have the exact same property at a much more expensive rate?

They won't allow it. TV pays for and therefore owns/controls everything.


FSU isn't a good enough school to join the Big Ten. Not on the table. AAU selected South Florida over FSU ...

 

[Ope3]

@Ope3 outside of current/future ACC members (including ND), there are no schools left that could still be added that they wouldn't have already added.

It's stable.

No current ACC members will be allowed to leave. That's controlled by ESPN.

Why would they, for example with Florida State, allow a property which they already own at a much cheaper price (that FSU agreed to and signed a contract for!) to break their deal and go someplace like the SEC where they'll have the exact same property at a much more expensive rate?

They won't allow it. TV pays for and therefore owns/controls everything.


FSU isn't a good enough school to join the Big Ten. Not on the table. AAU selected South Florida over FSU ...

The same thing in bold said about Washington and Oregon. They took less (something I suggested WAAAAAY back on page 2 in February), however it did not seem occur to anyone else as a possibility. Things changed. Here the are.

Everything else you said makes sense. Now. It could change.

> SMU, Cal & Stanford also all joined the ACC at a significant discount, less then full shares. If it works for them, others may follow their lead.
> New playoff system could cause a major shake-up.
> NIL could have schools wishing to move up and weight classes based on success and well financed boosters.
> As 2030 approaches, maybe the GoR is much more negotiable, say in 2028.
> Is the Division-less Super Conference going to work or may there be a return to Divisions requiring more schools make the numbers work?

The only thing constant for the past 3 decades is consistent change. Seems foolish to think it will remain static for 6 years. The Big 10 has expanded 4 times since 2010.

I don't think the turf war is over with the SEC.

 

[MplsGopher]

No it's not over, but both are waiting out ACC schools. Those are locked up until 2036. I could go earlier than that, but these things always revolve around negotiations for new/re-up TV deals.

Notre Dame will try on $67M for size through 2029. At that time they will assess how much money the BT/SEC have brought in and if they need closer to that to have a shot at the playoff.

I think they'll be just fine.

 

[Some guy]

@Ope3 outside of current/future ACC members (including ND), there are no schools left that could still be added that they wouldn't have already added.

It's stable.

No current ACC members will be allowed to leave. That's controlled by ESPN.

Why would they, for example with Florida State, allow a property which they already own at a much cheaper price (that FSU agreed to and signed a contract for!) to break their deal and go someplace like the SEC where they'll have the exact same property at a much more expensive rate?

They won't allow it. TV pays for and therefore owns/controls everything.


FSU isn't a good enough school to join the Big Ten. Not on the table. AAU selected South Florida over FSU ...

I agree with some of this analysis and it is why a team paying to break GOR agreements is more likely to join the big ten than the SEC

However, if it looks like a valuable property might break GOR to leave ACC for big ten, that changes the calculus for ESPN and it may be better for them to negotiate against themselves and up a team like Florida State’s payment in order to keep them on their network.

But I don’t think it can happen unless the ACC folds (now unlikely post expansion) or if it is much closer to the year they GOR expires so the negotiations would end with a much lower buyout of the contract.

 

[MplsGopher]

That’s what FSU (and Clemson) would love ESPN to think, that they’re going to the Big Ten.

In a strange sense, it’s actually in the Big Ten’s interest to play along. In the same sense as someone who drives the price up at an auction knowing full well they have zero desire to buy the thing, but just to stick it to their competitor.


ESPN can stick to its guns however, knowing full well that neither of those schools are worthy of the Big Ten academic brand. Clemson is the same thing as NDSU, as an academic institution. Florida State is a different animals as it’s not actually the Ag school in the state, despite the name. It’s similar Illinois State, as an academic institution. But much bigger and richer with much better history and brand in CFB.