Am I on Something or On to Something

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husker70

husker70

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When I took a look at the Gopher Schedule and used Gerry DiNardo's method of match up opponent wins, and his comment this team will win one game on special teams I ended up with the Gophers winning eight games.

4 non conference games
Iowa
Purdue
Northwestern
Illinois

Then I looked at Notre Dame
Will they win 4 games?

Navy
Purdue
Michigan State
Michigan
Miami
Stanford
BYU
Oklahoma
Pittsburg
Boston College
Wake Forest
USC
 

Keep dreaming. A 6-6 regular season would be a GOOD year for this team. WMU and Purdue are 2 games that the gophers could easily drop...
 

Judging by Your capitalization scheme, i'd Guess you Are On something.

But seriously, Purdue will be pretty good this year and we will be serious underdogs in that game, same with Iowa (who will have a score to settle with us). I'd be ecstatic if we won 6 games this year.
 


husker70 said:
I ended up with the Gophers winning eight games.
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8 wins might be wishful thinking.

Here's my rough estimate at the percent chance we have to win each game we play in this year. Nothing scientific or stat-geeky.

@UNLV 92-8
New Hampshire 85-15
Western Michigan 50-50
Syracuse 74-26
@Iowa 40-60
Northwestern 63-37
@Wisconsin 8-92
Purdue 66-34
Michigan 12-88
@Illinois 34-66
@Nebraska 14-86
Michigan State 14-86

That puts us at 5.52 wins and 6.48 losses. So, either 5-7 or 6-6. I think I'm being very realistic and maybe a bit optimistic. Anyway, point is, 8 wins is not out of question, but winning 8 is just as likely as winning 3 or 4.
 


glovedgopher said:
Troll alert.
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I agree 6-6 is the most realistic ceiling, maybe 7-6 with a cupcake bowl win, but I'd say 5-7 is more likely than that.

Western Michigan is likely the toughest non-conference game. Alex Carder might be the best QB we face this year. He's coming off two 30+ TD passes seasons and put up 306 yds on Illinois, 479 on UConn, and 439 on Purdue.

Purdue went 4-4 in conference last year and returns two QBs and a lot of RBs and WRs. I'd probably open us as an underdog there.
 

akgopher said:
I agree 6-6 is the most realistic ceiling, maybe 7-6 with a cupcake bowl win, but I'd say 5-7 is more likely than that.

Western Michigan is likely the toughest non-conference game. Alex Carder might be the best QB we face this year. He's coming off two 30+ TD passes seasons and put up 306 yds on Illinois, 479 on UConn, and 439 on Purdue.

Purdue went 4-4 in conference last year and returns two QBs and a lot of RBs and WRs. I'd probably open us as an underdog there.
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(5-7) would be a huge disappointment - Need at least a (6-6) season to bring some positivity back.
 

Tremendous Timmy said:
Keep dreaming. A 6-6 regular season would be a GOOD year for this team. WMU and Purdue are 2 games that the gophers could easily drop...
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Oooh. Good call, Pantherhawk. The only bigger dream would be if someone posted your home address in Glen Burnie Maryland, or maybe a picture from the newspaper touting your father, Michael's retirement party. I can do both. You're a tough guy living on Mary Lane with your Dallas Clark autographed picture hanging over your shoulder. Too bad that out in the real world, you're a single, lonely pussy who's a complete failure of 40 wasted years. See you in Kinnick, if you've got the seeds!
 

PlayHosea said:
Oooh. Good call, Pantherhawk. The only bigger dream would be if someone posted your home address in Glen Burnie Maryland, or maybe a picture from the newspaper touting your father, Michael's retirement party. I can do both. You're a tough guy living on Mary Lane with your Dallas Clark autographed picture hanging over your shoulder. Too bad that out in the real world, you're a single, lonely pussy who's a complete failure of 40 wasted years. See you in Kinnick, if you've got the seeds!
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HaHa I'm actually a big fan of the gophers and not the infamous Pantherhawk. I truthfully believe that a 6-6 season would be a good season for the gophers!
 



I think you overreact, PlayHosea. Pointing out that the Gophers could lose to two good teams, one of which beat them soundly last year, hardly qualifies as trolling.
 

I think some of you guys are underestimating Purdue, they'll be a pretty decent team next season. They were decent last year and they should improve.

As far as expectations, I think 5 wins is a good conservative guess and if we won 7, I'd be ecstatic. 5 wins should not be a disappointment, we are coming off a 3-win season.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
I think some of you guys are underestimating Purdue, they'll be a pretty decent team next season. They were decent last year and they should improve.

As far as expectations, I think 5 wins is a good conservative guess and if we won 7, I'd be ecstatic. 5 wins should not be a disappointment, we are coming off a 3-win season.
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Yes 5 wins is a disappointment - this team NEEDS (6-6) and a bowl game (any small bowl game) to make the fans, students and recruits feel like things are changing. With a healthy Gray (6-6) is definitely the record we should expect.
 




I agree, Husker, and I posted that same number a while back.

DISCLAIMER: I am an unabashed, unapologetic homer.
 

I guess I'd like to know why everyone is so high on Illinois. The same bunch that quit on Zook is suddenly going to be a bunch of world-beaters?
 

I use this formula for myself: take my best wins estimate and subtract 2 games. This has been incredibly accurate over the past 10 or so years. I predict 6 wins, so we will probably win 4. I know it doesn't sound good, but my formula is usually within a game.
 

GopherRock said:
I guess I'd like to know why everyone is so high on Illinois. The same bunch that quit on Zook is suddenly going to be a bunch of world-beaters?
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I don't get it either. I don't really see it with Purdue either, but what do I know, they beat tOSU last year.

I love this time of year because a lot of us can totally convince ourselves that 8 wins is not only achievable, but very reasonable! I started out saying 5 wins before the season, but I've convinced myself we'll win 6. I also believe we'll win one we shouldn't and lose one we shouldn't.
 

HouseOfHagen said:
I use this formula for myself: take my best wins estimate and subtract 2 games. This has been incredibly accurate over the past 10 or so years. I predict 6 wins, so we will probably win 4. I know it doesn't sound good, but my formula is usually within a game.
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With youth comes inconsistency, and we are young at many positions. You're probably right. I'm going back to 5 wins.
 

I'd say 5-7 is progress, considering how bad it has been. I'd say 5-7 is smashing success if there aren't any blow outs and the margin is within 10 in two of the three against Nebraska, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
I think some of you guys are underestimating Purdue, they'll be a pretty decent team next season. They were decent last year and they should improve.

As far as expectations, I think 5 wins is a good conservative guess and if we won 7, I'd be ecstatic. 5 wins should not be a disappointment, we are coming off a 3-win season.
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Agreed. One number that really sticks out to me is that we only have twelve seniors. Twelve. Also, we only have eleven returning starters. A lot of teams don't improve their win-loss record with only eleven starters returning.
 

HouseOfHagen said:
I use this formula for myself: take my best wins estimate and subtract 2 games. This has been incredibly accurate over the past 10 or so years. I predict 6 wins, so we will probably win 4. I know it doesn't sound good, but my formula is usually within a game.
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I hope you are wrong but I have to admit this approach would have been very accurate over recent years. It also tends to more closely align with the national media or websites that usually predict worse seasons than people closer to the program. I think caring about, and being more knowledgable about players and coaches tends to lead to predictions that are not fully taking weaknesses into account. I'm predicting 6 wins but I shouldn't be surprised with 4. I guess I will hold on to this thought... what if the team surprises me in the OTHER direction for a change? 8-4 baby!
 


4four4 said:
Weiner alert.
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What the hell is with people getting so up in arms about this? Regardless of his account age or his username, it is a very valid post. WMU is widely regarded as our most difficult OOC game, and Purdue will be pretty good this year. In fact, many Purdue fans think they have a chance at winning the Leaders Division with OSU and PSU out of the running. Sound like familiar homerism to anyone here?

6-6 WOULD be a good season for us. I have no idea why everyone is getting their panties all knotted over this post.
 

I 6 or 7 wins this year would give fans and players a reason to be proud of this program.
 

If the Gophs win 5 games this year there will be clammoring on this board to have University Ave renamed after Jerry Kill. If they win 6 and go to a bowl game - Kill will be the next Governor.
 

Art Vandelay said:
If the Gophs win 5 games this year there will be clammoring on this board to have University Ave renamed after Jerry Kill. If they win 6 and go to a bowl game - Kill will be the next Governor.
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Okay - But first things first - We need to name the sewage plant "The Art Vandelay Depository".
 

I would not put Northwestern in the win column so fast. The Wildcats WRs are rated as the best in the B1G and the addition of former 5 star WR Kyle Prater will challenge the DBs. Kain Colter has a lot of experience at QB and is a quicker, more athletic and uninjured Dan Persa-type who will be a nightmare to defend. That said 5 or 6 wins is definitely realistic for the Gophers.
 

Will 8-4 sell any seats? Will it create any buzz? Will it land a better bowl? Will it become the standard for a couple of years before we break through? Anyone with the idea of 3-6 wins is denying what effect the long time coaching staff can and will do. What the JC transfer and freshman class will add. If we have a threat at running back and Gray and Gray can throw and complete on the perimeter this team will be more like last years game against Illinois than last years Michigan game. With an offense that can score 28-35 points a game the defense should be able to hold 8 teams below 21
 

husker70 said:
Will 8-4 sell any seats? Will it create any buzz? Will it land a better bowl? Will it become the standard for a couple of years before we break through? Anyone with the idea of 3-6 wins is denying what effect the long time coaching staff can and will do. What the JC transfer and freshman class will add. If we have a threat at running back and Gray and Gray can throw and complete on the perimeter this team will be more like last years game against Illinois than last years Michigan game. With an offense that can score 28-35 points a game the defense should be able to hold 8 teams below 21
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The best thing about last year's team was you could tell that they were much better at the end of the year. If the team gets better throughout the season, 8-4 is not impossible, but it's improbable.
 

Art Vandelay said:
If the Gophs win 5 games this year there will be clammoring on this board to have University Ave renamed after Jerry Kill. If they win 6 and go to a bowl game - Kill will be the next Governor.
Click to expand...

You might be the least informed poster on this board. People weren't in love with Brew following two 6-6 seasons.
 

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