All things Players Coming and Going.

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bonin21 said:
McGroarty staying

If Casey and Hughes stay they're gonna be loaded again and maybe a better top 6 and top 9 than this year.

McGroarty/Casey/Hughes/Soph Moldenhauer/Soph Schifsky
+ incoming Hage/Gridin/Humphreys
+ probably Whitelaw and maybe more from the portal
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Dang, I always thought he was better than Brindley, and definitely the better pro prospect. 3 years out of a guy like that is a big deal.
 

Since Leonard hasn't signed yet I think "The Line" will all be back. Plus Hagens.

The FF teams will once again be the top four favorites. UND and UMN will be hoping to jump one of them to make the FF.
 

Buium gone for Denver. would envision that would mean his brother will go too. Rizzo also just signed with the Flyers
 
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bonin21 said:
Since Leonard hasn't signed yet I think "The Line" will all be back. Plus Hagens.

The FF teams will once again be the top four favorites. UND and UMN will be hoping to jump one of them to make the FF.
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we'll see on "the line". Caps just made the playoffs so we'll see on Leonard. the other 2 its looking more likely, but can't envision the sharks wanting to burn a year. for perrault, probably more depends what happens for the rangers in the offseason. But if they're all back, BC is head and shoulders the favorite, regardless of what BU brings back and how anyone feels about Michigan, Denver, UND, UM, etc.
 






Meh.

79th out of 84 qualified goalies last season in save percentage.
 
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Goaltending will be the weak point for the Gophers next year.
 

bonin21 said:
Meh.

79th out of 84 qualified goalies last season in save percentage.
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He didn’t exactly have a Mike Hastings lock down defensive game plan in front of him. I still think Airy is the guy to start, but who knows.

I do wonder if he’s on scholarship cause it sounds like Fish was forced out due to scholarships. If it was a case of this or Fish would much rather have fish.
 


From the Parkinglot said:
He didn’t exactly have a Mike Hastings lock down defensive game plan in front of him. I still think Airy is the guy to start, but who knows.
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You still need to save the puck. They were 13th in shots against per game, better than the Gophers, so it's not like he was getting peppered.

In fact, they faced fewer shots per game than Hastings' team.

He'll turn 26 before the Big Ten Championship game. :rolleyes:
 
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bonin21 said:
You still need to save the puck. They were 13th in shots against per game, better than the Gophers, so it's not like he was getting peppered.

In fact, they faced fewer shots per game than Hastings' team.

He'll turn 26 before the Big Ten Championship game. :rolleyes:
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perfectly happy with this pick up. was really good as a junior, has played a bunch of games, and is a one year guy. he'll be here to try push Airey and is a more than capable backup. PSU was awful defensively and gave up a bunch of high danger chances every game. It's a solid but not spectacular pickup and would hope this means Bob is going to recruit/sign a younger guy to come in the year after to be the Airey heir apparent.
 

From the Parkinglot said:
He didn’t exactly have a Mike Hastings lock down defensive game plan in front of him. I still think Airy is the guy to start, but who knows.

I do wonder if he’s on scholarship cause it sounds like Fish was forced out due to scholarships. If it was a case of this or Fish would much rather have fish.
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to do what? be the 7th defenseman and/or take minutes from Gruba and/or Whipple for no reason? we still would have no backup goalie and you're going to need a scholarship there one way or the other as you're not going to roll with Airey and an walk on as the only guys rostered.
 

Leonard is back and therefore the three will be back. Ouch.

Think about the Knies-Cooley-Snuggerud line. Make it better. Then have them come back a second year. And have the first overall pick in the next draft on the next line.

I think the regret of blowing it in Tampa is only going to grow over time. It's going to be a major uphill battle to get past the top tier next season.
 
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bonin21 said:
Leonard is back and therefore the three will be back. Ouch.

Think about the Knies-Cooley-Snuggerud line. Make it better. Then have them come back a second year. And have the first overall pick in the next draft on the next line.

I think the regret of blowing it in Tampa is only going to grow over time. It's going to be a major uphill battle to get past the top tier next season.
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I think the Tampa pain will go away next time we win it, which will eventually happen. Having all the guys doesn’t give you the title, we’ll see how it goes but BC will be the odds on favorite for sure
 

upnorthkid said:
I think the Tampa pain will go away next time we win it, which will eventually happen. Having all the guys doesn’t give you the title, we’ll see how it goes but BC will be the odds on favorite for sure
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One and done is crazy, but I'll put them at 85% to make the Frozen Four. So the Gophers will be fighting for one of the other three spots.

I'll put BU at 50% if Celebrini is back. DU will wait to see if Buium is back.

I'll put the odds of someone outside of the top 7 (Frozen Four plus UMN, UND, MSU) making the FF at 10%. It will be another year of haves VS. have-nots.
 

bonin21 said:
One and done is crazy, but I'll put them at 85% to make the Frozen Four. So the Gophers will be fighting for one of the other three spots.

I'll put BU at 50% if Celebrini is back. DU will wait to see if Buium is back.

I'll put the odds of someone outside of the top 7 (Frozen Four plus UMN, UND, MSU) making the FF at 10%. It will be another year of haves VS. have-nots.
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Yeah whoever has the one seed has so much of an easier path to get there. Completely agree that’s likely BC again. Once you get 2-7 it’s way more about matchups MOST of the time, especially in the second round. This will probably change more and apply more 3-7 given aha and ccha are going to fall into a pit, but depends who gets that 2 seed. Hell DU needed a couple late penalty kills just to get out of round 1 against UMass. But yes betting odds with the transfer portal and NIL are going to heavily tilt towards the hockey markets, we just have to take advantage of that. Completely agree with your percentage assessment of who will be there with there being a rotation of teams who could do it more frequently pending how things break (will include pretty much all big ten schools because of money).
 

My math doesn't really work out i don't think so it's probably more like
85% BC
65% BU
55% DU
50% UM

40% UND
35% UMN
30% MSU

40% the field

If I'm thinking about that math right
 


bonin21 said:
My math doesn't really work out i don't think so it's probably more like
85% BC
65% BU
55% DU
50% UM

40% UND
35% UMN
30% MSU

40% the field

If I'm thinking about that math right
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I know your schtick is being so anti-homer that you can’t evaluate the gophers properly, but I’d love to hear the logic for UND being 5% higher than us given they are losing Blake and other key pieces while we return most key pieces and added the best player out of the portal.
 

Gophers1992 said:
I know your schtick is being so anti-homer that you can’t evaluate the gophers properly, but I’d love to hear the logic for UND being 5% higher than us given they are losing Blake and other key pieces while we return most key pieces and added the best player out of the portal.
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He meant Notre Dame...he's terrible with abbreviations.
 

Gophers1992 said:
I know your schtick is being so anti-homer that you can’t evaluate the gophers properly, but I’d love to hear the logic for UND being 5% higher than us given they are losing Blake and other key pieces while we return most key pieces and added the best player out of the portal.
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Their class (freshmen plus transfers) is overall slightly better than the Gophers, IMO. And I think they did slightly better than expectations last year while the Gophers did slightly worse. But there is a subconscious NCHC bump in there too, probably.

Looking at it objectively, a seven game series between the two teams next year would probably be insane and go to game seven.
 

bonin21 said:
Their class (freshmen plus transfers) is overall slightly better than the Gophers, IMO. And I think they did slightly better than expectations last year while the Gophers did slightly worse. But there is a subconscious NCHC bump in there too, probably.

Looking at it objectively, a seven game series between the two teams next year would probably be insane and go to game seven.
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Big ten overall has outplayed NCHC in the tournament the last couple years so that’s really dumb reasoning, but not unexpected I guess.

And I guess we’re not considering departures?
 

Gophers1992 said:
Big ten overall has outplayed NCHC in the tournament the last couple years so that’s really dumb reasoning, but not unexpected I guess.

And I guess we’re not considering departures?
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Pitlick-Moore-Snuggerud left a sour taste in my mouth this season, and adding Wood is great but I don't know if it'll be enough to crack the code.

And I have no faith in Gopher goaltending after it ending the last three seasons.

Slotting the Gophers in at number 6 is still higher than I had them going into this season.
 

Gophers1992 said:
Big ten overall has outplayed NCHC in the tournament the last couple years so that’s really dumb reasoning, but not unexpected I guess.
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Outplayed? What games are you talking about other than games the favorite won? I see one upset of Big Ten over NCHC since 2019 and it was a 3 over a 2.

Banners are king, and NCHC is king until the Big Ten wins at least two in the next three.
 

bonin21 said:
Outplayed? What games are you talking about other than games the favorite won? I see one upset of Big Ten over NCHC since 2019 and it was a 3 over a 2.

Banners are king, and NCHC is king until the Big Ten wins at least two in the next three.
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If you want to give Denver the benefit of the doubt, sure, they’ve earned it. But UND has one tournament win in the last 7 years. So to give them a bump simply because they play in Denver’s conference is just dumb. But again you have shown that you aren’t any more objective than even the biggest gopher homers.

Big ten has had 5 frozen four teams in the last 3 years, NCHC has had two. So when calculating the odds of making the frozen four, your logic makes zero sense as usual.
 

I think we can all acknowledge none of us are truly objective as we're fans. Bonin has taken the gophers are always more negative (which is a weird thing as a fan, but as a MN sports fan, yeah I think we can understand) and the rest of us are always more positive. That said, the projected numbers are ludicrous
 

Recent notable portal entries. I don't expect the Gophers to go after any of them.
Charlie Leddy - D - BC - 2 years left
Colby Ambrosio - F - BC - 1 year left
Jeremy Wilmer - F - BU - 2 years left
Ty Gallagher - D - BU - 1 year left
Aiden Hansen-Bukata - D - RIT - 1 year left

Still waiting on confirmation of Whitelaw to UM, after they picked up Lovell and Stein.
 

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