From Stewart Mandel’s mailbag in The Athletic:
USC should be a top-3 job (only behind Alabama and Ohio State), and it’s pretty stunning how far that program has fallen. Still, it is one of a handful of places where you should be able to compete for a national title every year. Are people thinking too small on this hire? Not saying he would leave, but does Lincoln Riley at least take the call? Does Sean McVay? If those 5-stars in Southern California start staying home, wouldn’t either of those guys create truly scary offenses? — Rob, Atlanta
You’re right that, in theory, USC should be one of the top jobs in college football — maybe not top three, but pretty close. On the surface, it seemingly has everything you could want: a great school with great history and tradition, the deep-pocketed donors, the Hollywood backdrop, Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart popping up on national television every week, and, of course, all that backyard talent.
And yet, just one coach in the last 40 years, Pete Carroll, has had enough success to leave on his own terms. The seven others (not counting interims) have all been fired, with an average tenure of four years. Yes, there were quite a few questionable hires in there (Paul Hackett, anyone?), but at what point do we have to concede that Carroll’s tenure was an extreme outlier that might not be remotely replicable, but against which every subsequent coach has been and will be measured?
It’s all a bit puzzling.
Antonio Morales’ excellent Clay Helton postmortem detailed some of the ways seemingly well-resourced USC’s staffing and infrastructure had actually fallen far behind that of its peers under former athletic directors Pat Haden and Lynn Swann. But given those longevity numbers I cited, the problems clearly go back farther than that.
Carroll did so many things right in building his culture, but one that probably doesn’t get talked up enough is how he used the LA market to his advantage. With no NFL teams then and the Lakers between title runs, Carroll truly turned USC football into LA’s Team, and parlayed all the media coverage and celebrity attention that came with it. For much of Helton’s tenure, it was kind of the opposite. The fans tuned out and turned their attention to the Rams, Dodgers and Lakers. Those that did still come arguably made it harder, not easier, to recruit by constantly booing the team. And the Los Angeles media still covers USC like a pro team, which means a much higher level of criticism and scrutiny than you going to see in most college towns.
For all those reasons, no, I do not see McVay or Riley entertaining that job, and perhaps not even some of the bigger names you’re already seeing pop on lists. If you’re Mario Cristobal, you may believe you’re closer to winning a national title at Oregon than you would be initially at USC. If you’re Chris Petersen, you might ask yourself, why would I come out of retirement to get crushed by the L.A. Times? Or my own fans, if I go 9-3?
But someone good will want that job. As is well-documented, Carroll was far from USC’s first choice at the time, but proved to be uniquely suited for the job. One guy who I personally believe fits that description, and would absolutely embody that Hollywood vibe and absolutely take it: Minnesota’s P.J. Fleck.
