Yes and no. You are correct in that they won't have these 5* first guys off the board for $2m a season guys at Duke, AZ, Indiana etc but once that first wave goes, there would be more than plenty money to "overpay" those guys. Look at all the guys who enter and get paid from lower levels that end up not playing. UCLA paid up for William Kyle from SDSU, now he never sees the floor, you think they wouldn't pay a pretty penny for Winter or Gilmore?If so, that is a ton of money for the way they put their rosters together. Beyond Tonje, there is just no one that jumps out at you as a guy that would rake in a ton in the portal. They just have a bunch of good sound basketball players that play the right way and can shoot it.
It's like the NFL team that misses on the top tier QB so they pay Darnold $35m or Carr $40m because they have the money and don't want to left with nothing.