Like I said -- it's the perfect thing for him to say.
- if he happens to be right, then people who pay for the early access feel vindicated and feel like they got in early on the goods
- if he happens to be wrong, no one will give a crap, because they'll be so happy Dawson came here. And he can always give himself a lazy out by saying something like "teens are fickle and change their minds on a whim, glad he changed his mind at the last second on this one!"
Fact of it is: he doesn't have a clue on this one. There is no such thing as "official info". He's posting his opinion, as if it were fact. His opinion is based on his gut feel, and other people he's talked to who claim they know what's going on, claim they know the family, claim they know what Dawson is thinking. Hearsay, as it's called.
This just reaffirms that I, personally, will never pay money to have "early access" to someone's opinions.