Thanks for that post, FtF.
Boy, when you start analyzing what is left -- there are now 60 bowl eligible (6+ wins), so 18 bowl slots let to fill -- and looking at what 4/5 win teams are out there and who they play .... it could really come down to the wire for the Gophs, if they don't get to 6 wins themselves.
There are 18 other teams in that list with 5 wins (Miss has a bowl ban). Of those, this is my opinion with two weeks to go:
Ark St - should at least beat S Alabama for 6
Oregon - should at least beat OR St for 6, although it is a big rivalry game and OR St would love to win it
BC - should at least beat UConn for 6, although it is somewhat a rivalry game for UConn and they'd love to win it
Texas - WV on the road will be tough, but they probably "should" beat Tech at home for 6
Texas Tech - TCU at home this week, at Texas next week, so at least one of Texas or Tech will make it to 6
AZ St - should at least beat OR St for 6
Mid Tenn - should at least beat ODU for 6
Utah St - should at least beat Hawaii for 6
Missouri - both Vandy and Ark are the bottom of the SEC, but both games are away ... might be close
WKU - Mid Tenn is a rivalry game I think, and FIU is higher end of conf, so could be close
UTSA - no idea
GT - really hoping they beat Duke for 6
K State - best chance is to beat Iowa St at home next week, hopefully they don't
Utah - best chance is to beat Colorado at home next week, hopefully they don't
Colorado - only have at Utah next week, so at least one of Utah or Colorado will make it to 6
Temple - probably should beat Tulsa on the road next week, hopefully they don't
Cal - at Stanford (huge rivalry), then at UCLA ... hopefully they lose both
UCLA - at USC (huge rivalry), then home vs Cal, so one of Cal or UCLA will make it to 6
Air Force is very unlikely to make it to 6 wins, and they're the top APR. After that, I was wrong about how a tie would be broken with Vandy and Duke. It then goes to the last single-year APR (link here:
http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/a...otball-council-adjusts-bowl-selection-process), which both Vandy and Duke are ahead of Minnesota in that. So Minnesota is solidly in fourth right now for APR criteria.
Now granted it's possible that Air Force, Duke, Vandy all lose their final two games, leaving all three with only 4 wins and out of the picture. That's the best we can hope for. But all three do have winnable games, and all are fighting to make it to bowls at 5-7.
Gonna be interesting. Need to update this again after this weekend.