All Things 2022 Minnesota Twins In-Season Thread

From the Parkinglot

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Good post.

Buck has changed his body to be as strong and resilient as possible and they play him much deeper than when he was younger. He simply may just have a propensity to getting “nicked up.”

I’m more worried about him playing regularly later on in the season and for the playoffs then at this point, If they feel this type of approach/management is best, so be it.

They were smart enough to realize while Jax doesn’t have starting quality stuff, it doesn’t work for a hitter’s second/third AB seeing it, it is good enough to make him a weapon as a reliever. I think we’ve seen that they get fat more right than they do wrong overall. Last year was an outlier IMO - they got roasted and rightfully s, but if you’re gonna roast, you have to praise as well, when earned.


If you give me a team that wins 3 division titles in four seasons with one clunker if a season in the middle, I’m happy with that.
The playoffs. I got news for you he will be needed to play 130 games this year in order to make the playoffs.
 


howeda7

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They gave up a closer and 6 million for a tightrope show and a pitcher with arm issues.
Pretty much. I wouldn't have minded the trade in December if they were going to go sign a different closer. But they left themselves with no options doing it on Opening Day.
 

howeda7

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The playoffs. I got news for you he will be needed to play 130 games this year in order to make the playoffs.
That's already unlikely. He's already missed 11 games and will clearly get about 1 game/week off even when healthy. There are 20 weeks left in the season which would put him at 31 games off and 131 played if there are no more injuries.
 

short ornery norwegian

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I'm pretty sure that's not a rule. Just have to be on the 40 man as of the end of August.
I think what parking lot is saying is this:

If Buxton doesn't play at least 130 games, the Twins will not win enough games to make the playoffs.

In other words, the more games Buxton misses, the less chance the Twins have of being a playoff team.

which is pretty much born out by the career stats. when Buxton plays, the Twins' record is much better than when he doesn't play.
 


GophersInIowa

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Update on all players involved in trades before this season started. Not a whole lot of hitting from anyone so far.

C Mitch Garver (TX): .205/.292/.638 with 3 HR, 8 RBI
IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa (NYY): .277/.326/.671 with 0 HR, 7 RBI
P Chase Petty (CINC - minors): 0-2, 3.20 ERA in 19.2 IP in A, just turned 19 in April
3B Josh Donaldson (NYY): .220/.336/.688 with 2 HR, 7 RBI
C Ben Rortvedt (NYY): injured, hasn't played

P Ronny Henriquez (MN-minors): 0-1. 5.00 ERA in 9 IP in AAA, just 21 yrs old
P Sonny Gray (MN): 0-1, 3.48 ERA in 10.1 IP
P Francis Peguero (MN-minors): no appearances so far, 4.72 career minor league ERA, 24 years old
C Gary Sanchez (MN): .211/.273/.625 with 1 HR, 9 RBI
3B Gio Urshela (MN): .232/.298/.591 with 1 HR, 7 RBI
 


GophersInIowa

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I think what parking lot is saying is this:

If Buxton doesn't play at least 130 games, the Twins will not win enough games to make the playoffs.

In other words, the more games Buxton misses, the less chance the Twins have of being a playoff team.

which is pretty much born out by the career stats. when Buxton plays, the Twins' record is much better than when he doesn't play.
Ah my bad. I thought he was saying you have to play 130 games to be eligible.
 

Gopher_In_NYC

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The playoffs. I got news for you he will be needed to play 130 games this year in order to make the playoffs.
Agree to disagree - much deeper/ better cast than before; that’s why his record in years with prior teams while interesting, strikes me as irrelevant at the same time, since this is not the same version as prior years - too many variables.

Also love to know where your magical/arbitrary figure of 130 games came from? Statistics? Which ones?
Or was that your Hs batting avg?

Also, what qualifies you as being the Uber baseball know it all? I played in college, coached and umped and come from a baseball family - as I followed in my old man's footsteps.

You?
 
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short ornery norwegian

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Just saw this in a Tweet:

as of today, the MLB average OPS is .667

to put that into context

the career OPS for that all-time favorite Twin, Nick Punto.......... .646.

It's like a Twilight Zone episode:

What if every player in MLB hit like Nick Punto?

Definitely NOT submitted for your approval........
 

tikited

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Just saw this in a Tweet:

as of today, the MLB average OPS is .667

to put that into context

the career OPS for that all-time favorite Twin, Nick Punto.......... .646.

It's like a Twilight Zone episode:

What if every player in MLB hit like Nick Punto?

Definitely NOT submitted for your approval........
Bring back the juiced balls already. Ban the shift. Hire Albert Belle to teach corking techniques.
 


From the Parkinglot

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Agree to disagree - much deeper/ better cast than before; that’s why his record in years with prior teams while interesting, strikes me as irrelevant at the same time, since this is not the same version as prior years - too many variables.

Also love to know where your magical/arbitrary figure of 130 games came from? Statistics? Which ones?
Or was that your Hs batting avg?

Also, what qualifies you as being the Uber baseball know it all? I played in college, coached and umped and come from a baseball family - as I followed in my old man's footsteps.

You?

Have no idea what it was in 2020 or 2021, but I bet they lose 4-5 games this year if he’s not playing.

Can we not compare who knows more about baseball cause of playing careers. I am not sure what playing baseball has to do with how important Buxton is to the twins and their line up not to mention the pitching staff. There is no need to bring personal attacks into this as it supposed to be a friendly conversation.
 



Gopher_In_NYC

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Have no idea what it was in 2020 or 2021, but I bet they lose 4-5 games this year if he’s not playing.
I conceded this point (record with/without Buck) for prior years and unequivocally stated that while interesting, you cannot use that as the end all/be all in evaluating how the Twins end up this year - each year is its own entity, as the roster changes.
This in no way minimizes Buck's excellent contributions, but it in essence skips over adding a player of Correa's abilities (Top 5 MVP 2, ROY, 5x AS) that we know how one of the best SS-2nd combos and we have a renewed Kepler and young guys like Larnach and Jeffers who are making huge strides as well Offensively.

My chief argument in a prior post was regarding our pitching and D being the key to Winning the Division and I stand by that.

We are fourth in ERA as of today 3.11

We are second in walks allowed as of today with 77

The above shows that we have a good staff this year18% through our 2022 schedule and I fully expect us to stay in the Top 7 for both categories by the end of the year.

We're a much better D team than last year IMO and we've committed 14 errors thus far which puts us in the middle of the pack (I will be shocked if we don't finish in the Top 10, when the season is over) -



Can we not compare who knows more about baseball cause of playing careers.
The pitching and D stats are much more important to me as baseball person than our record with/without Buck (obviously I want him to play as much as possible - but bristle at the notion that he needs to play 130 games for us to be in the playoffs. Pitching and game is what wins over the long haul and matters the most in my experience from my baseball career - that's why I brought it up - it's literally important to me vs. being figurative importance in this instance.

I am not sure what playing baseball has to do with how important Buxton is to the twins and their line up not to mention the pitching staff. There is no need to bring personal attacks into this as it supposed to be a friendly conversation.
A minor jibe about a possible poor HS batting average?
I didn't realize those wounds were still fresh - please accept my apologies or as we do where I currently live - just fuggedaboutit.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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Have no idea what it was in 2020 or 2021, but I bet they lose 4-5 games this year if he’s not playing.

Can we not compare who knows more about baseball cause of playing careers. I am not sure what playing baseball has to do with how important Buxton is to the twins and their line up not to mention the pitching staff. There is no need to bring personal attacks into this as it supposed to be a friendly conversation.

This season the Twins are 13-6 with Buxton, 5-5 without him. Matches up quite well with those stats so far.
 

Ope3

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This season the Twins are 13-6 with Buxton, 5-5 without him. Matches up quite well with those stats so far.
Right now he's on pace to play 106 games. I would say that is the bare minimum, or close, for which they will need him to reach the playoffs. Anything above 115 would be pure gravy, given his track record.
 


BleedGopher

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ESPN: MLB Rookie Rankings: Which young star has impressed the most through one month?

4. Joe Ryan, P, Minnesota Twins

What he's done so far: The Twins acquired Ryan last summer from the Rays for Nelson Cruz and he made five September starts, retaining his rookie eligibility for 2022. He is 3-1 with a 1.63 ERA in five starts. Ryan sits just 92 mph with his four-seam fastball, which he throws over 50% of the time, but gets whiffs with it even though its spin rate is just middle of the road. He's held batters to a .167 average -- just .111 on his fastball -- and two home runs. How does he do it? He creates deception with a low release point, creating a flatter-than-normal plane on his fastball (similar to Jacob deGrom, only Ryan obviously doesn't throw as hard). -- Schoenfield

Predicting the rest of his 2022: The challenge for Ryan will be how hitters adapt to him the more they see his unusual arsenal. And it's two different arsenals. Against righties, he's basically just fastball-slider. Against lefties, he ditches the slider in favor of a curve and changeup. The latter group are the ones to worry about, as his solid numbers against lefty hitters so far have been fairly BABIP-dependent. In other words, Ryan isn't going to remain a 1.63 ERA pitcher but as long as his fastball continues to play against hitters from both sides of the dish, he'll be an above average starter. -- Doolittle

The long-term outlook: Ryan emerged in 2019 for the Rays as a fastball-heavy sleeper with good feel that got by with unique characteristics to his low-90's heater, but there were still big questions about how that would play at the big league level. Three years later, he's still mostly that guy, but his off-speed stuff has improved a notch and now he looks like an innings-eater at worst. -- McDaniel

7. Jhoan Duran, P, Minnesota Twins


What he's done so far: Acquired back in 2018 from Arizona in the Eduardo Escobar deal, Duran had been a starter in the minors, although an elbow strain limited him to 16 innings in 2021. Moving to the bullpen in spring training, Duran has displayed some of the most electric stuff of any reliever in the majors, with a fastball that has averaged 100.3 mph and a big, knee-buckling curveball. He's whiffed 24 batters in 14.2 innings with just three walks for a 42% strikeout rate. The only hitch: He's served up four home runs, three of those off his splitter he's hung a few times too many. -- Schoenfield

Predicting the rest of his 2022: The Twins are likely to contend and contending teams can use a lock-down closer -- and Duran has all the attributes of a top-five fireman. Developed as a starter, Duran has continued to mix in all four of his pitches so far, with his splitter proving to be inconsistent. Either he gets a handle on that or the Twins pare down his arsenal and by October, he's turning out the lights in Minnesota on a nightly basis. -- Doolittle

The long-term outlook: The Twins are flush with big-league-ready prospect arms and Duran was always the unique one. He's 6-foot-5, can sit at 100 mph in short stints, and his changeup (which he throws one-third of the time) is known as a splinker -- a modified splitter grip that has averaged 96 mph this year. He may move into the rotation eventually but he's a relief ace for now. -- McDaniel


Win Twins!!
 


howeda7

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For this year probably but it’s still premature to say overall. He’s under team control for 2 more years while Rogers is a free agent after the season.
I wouldn't count on him for next year either. If he gives you anything it's a bonus. So basically one year of Rogers + $6 million for ~ 1 year of Paddock. At best it could still be a push, IMO unless the prospect we got is a HR. Plus the 2022 Twins are supposedly trying to contend and really needed Rogers. The 2024 Twins may (hopefully)have a rotation in place of Ryan, Ober, Winder, Belezovich, Woods-Martin etc.
 

GophersInIowa

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I wouldn't count on him for next year either. If he gives you anything it's a bonus. So basically one year of Rogers + $6 million for ~ 1 year of Paddock. At best it could still be a push, IMO unless the prospect we got is a HR. Plus the 2022 Twins are supposedly trying to contend and really needed Rogers. The 2024 Twins may (hopefully)have a rotation in place of Ryan, Ober, Winder, Belezovich, Woods-Martin etc.
Sure if you’re already convinced he’s out for the next 1.75 seasons but that’s extremely premature.
 

Ope3

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Questionable trade is officially a bad trade.

In addition to Paddock, Correa has been put on the 10 Day IL (retroactive).

Mark Contreras (OF) and Jharel Cotton (RHP) get the call up from St Paul per Twins twitter.
 

short ornery norwegian

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I was tweeting back and forth on this with a Twins blogger.

His point was that the deal probably doesn't get made if Paddack was 100% healthy.

again, you're talking about 1 year of control on a relief pitcher vs a starting pitcher with 3 years of control. If there are no red flags on Paddack, that deal probably doesn't happen. and the Twins got a serviceable reliever in Pagan.

I also have to assume that the Twins' medical people went through Paddack's info and signed off on the deal. I don't think this falls into the Sam Dyson realm, where the Twins traded for a guy who was already hurt.

Paddack had some risk. It was a bit of a gamble. We'll see what happens. If he has to have surgery, with the newer techniques, a lot of pitchers are only missing 9 to 10 months.

I'm not going to assume the worst until it gets here.
 

howeda7

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Sure if you’re already convinced he’s out for the next 1.75 seasons but that’s extremely premature.
TJS is 12-18 months. So best case is probably next June. Maeda had his last August and allegedly could pitch this September but I doubt that will happen either. I don't know whether it being the second TJS makes the timeline longer or shorter.
 

howeda7

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I was tweeting back and forth on this with a Twins blogger.

His point was that the deal probably doesn't get made if Paddack was 100% healthy.

again, you're talking about 1 year of control on a relief pitcher vs a starting pitcher with 3 years of control. If there are no red flags on Paddack, that deal probably doesn't happen. and the Twins got a serviceable reliever in Pagan.

I also have to assume that the Twins' medical people went through Paddack's info and signed off on the deal. I don't think this falls into the Sam Dyson realm, where the Twins traded for a guy who was already hurt.

Paddack had some risk. It was a bit of a gamble. We'll see what happens. If he has to have surgery, with the newer techniques, a lot of pitchers are only missing 9 to 10 months.

I'm not going to assume the worst until it gets here.
I don't agree with that. It's not like Paddock has some proven track record and only his arm injury made him available. He had one good season and two poor ones. He was both a reclamation project and an injury risk.
 

Gopher_In_NYC

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I don't agree with that. It's not like Paddock has some proven track record and only his arm injury made him available. He had one good season and two poor ones. He was both a reclamation project and an injury risk.

Well they had no intention is signing Rodgers next year, so you let him walk instead?
Remember it was widely speculated last year that they would have traded him last year if he hadn’t gotten injured.
To early to call this a “bad trade,” as Paddack’s stuff thus far looks rotation worthy.
 

howeda7

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Well they had no intention is signing Rodgers next year, so you let him walk instead?
Remember it was widely speculated last year that they would have traded him last year if he hadn’t gotten injured.
To early to call this a “bad trade,” as Paddack’s stuff thus far looks rotation worthy.
Yes. If we're trying to win in 2022, you make moves to make the 2022 team as good as possible. I don't care about who "walks". They could have decided 2022 was a rebuild year. But they didn't. They made that choice when they signed Correa. Trading Rogers after that for a reclamation pitcher with a bad arm made no sense.
 

Gopher_In_NYC

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Yes. If we're trying to win in 2022, you make moves to make the 2022 team as good as possible. I don't care about who "walks". They could have decided 2022 was a rebuild year. But they didn't. They made that choice when they signed Correa. Trading Rogers after that for a reclamation pitcher with a bad arm made no sense.

You can always get another arm at the deadline if need be. We have the 4th best team ERA @ 3.11 also.
Go to your local dispensary get a THC Gummy and enjoy being in first place and that most of their off season moves have worked, including not trading Larnach or Lewis for an As starter that you were lobbying for IIRC- you’re not perfect either Howie Falvey-Levine😎
 

tikited

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I don't agree with that. It's not like Paddock has some proven track record and only his arm injury made him available. He had one good season and two poor ones. He was both a reclamation project and an injury risk.
I'm with you on this. I didn't like the trade then and hate it now. Seemed like a white flag move then and now it's a whoops.
 

From the Parkinglot

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Watching the game tonight it appears that Jeffers may actually be costing Ryan strikes by yanking every pitch back into the zone even when they are 5 or 6 inches outside the zone. That last pitch was 4 inches low and Jeffers ya led it back to the strike zone. That got Ryan to think it was a strike and a puzzled look to the home plate ump.
 




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