All Things 2022 CFB Playoffs

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I have a pretty good feeling TN will still be in the top 4 and TCU will be out. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think I will. They had Alabama previously ahead of TCU. Tennessee is better than Alabama.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I have a pretty good feeling TN will still be in the top 4 and TCU will be out. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think I will. They had Alabama previously ahead of TCU. Tennessee is better than Alabama.
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This week's rankings don't matter. If TCU wins out (TX, Baylor, ISU, Championship) they are in the CFP. If they lose a game on the way, and especially the conference championship, that's another matter. They will subject themselves to SEC bias, and maybe even BG10 bias with the loser of OSU/Michigan.

1-2 spots (SEC) - Georgia probably makes the CFP regardless of what happens in the SEC championship. If they lose the championship again, there will be 2 SEC teams - Georgia and the SEC champion.

1 spot for sure (BG10) - The winner of OSU/Michigan will make it (assuming they win the conference championship against whichever 3-loss West team plays).

I'm curious what the committee will do with the inevitable pool of very good 1-loss teams for the 4th and maybe 3rd spot. A 1-loss Tennessee, Michigan/OSU, Clemson, TCU, and Oregon would all have a good argument. In my mind, a 1-loss conference champion in Clemson, TCU or Oregon should get the nod before any 1-loss non-champions (except Georgia).
 

GophersInIowa said:
I have a pretty good feeling TN will still be in the top 4 and TCU will be out. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think I will. They had Alabama previously ahead of TCU. Tennessee is better than Alabama.
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Like usual I was wrong.
 


Ohio St #2, Michigan #3, Penn State up to #14, Illinois down to #21.

Illinois will drop out if they lose to Purdue, and doubt Purdue will come up into the top 25. Would be interesting to see if Gophers would creep in at the bottom if we win.


Lot of churn and losses left above Penn St. And they should be "safe" with remaining schedule of: Maryland, @Rutgers, Mich St.


Three Big Ten teams in the NY6 definitely helps us out in the ultimate goal to play in a major Florida bowl game on Jan 2.

Need Penn St to get up to a top 12 ranking, really top 11 to be sure, with Tulane probably not top 12 even if they win out (though possible).
 


If the Gophers win out the regular season, they almost certainly will be ranked.
 

WAGopher said:
If the Gophers win out the regular season, they almost certainly will be ranked.
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Based on who plays who I think they are 50/50 to be ranked next week. There just won’t be very many 3 of fewer loss teams left
 





Some guy said:
Based on who plays who I think they are 50/50 to be ranked next week. There just won’t be very many 3 of fewer loss teams left
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Id put it at very unlikely. We’re way down the list in others getting votes
 

UCLA, Oregon, and Ole Miss have pretty much been eliminated. There’s growing chances that the SEC East will get 2 teams in. A lot has to still happen but I think there’s a chance the Michigan-Ohio St loser gets in (assuming it’s not a complete blowout).
 

GophersInIowa said:
UCLA, Oregon, and Ole Miss have pretty much been eliminated. There’s growing chances that the SEC East will get 2 teams in. A lot has to still happen but I think there’s a chance the Michigan-Ohio St loser gets in (assuming it’s not a complete blowout).
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If notre dame keeps winning and Michigan beats Ohio state close, I think that’s how Ohio state gets in.
I don’t think Michigan gets in as a second big ten team.

Bad out of conference schedule.
Very few road games. Best road win @iowa
Second best road win @ Rutgers
 

Some guy said:
If notre dame keeps winning and Michigan beats Ohio state close, I think that’s how Ohio state gets in.
I don’t think Michigan gets in as a second big ten team.

Bad out of conference schedule.
Very few road games. Best road win @iowa
Second best road win @ Rutgers
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USC has UCLA and ND left so I think it’s likely the PAC 12 champ has 2 losses. I think a 1 loss Michigan gets in over a 2 loss conference champ other than the SEC. I think they probably get in over a 1-loss non conference champ TCU. Then it would come down to UNC or Clemson losing another regular season game then winning their championship.

But you’re right, OSU losing a close one probably gives the Big Ten the better chance at two teams.
 



GophersInIowa said:
USC has UCLA and ND left so I think it’s likely the PAC 12 champ has 2 losses. I think a 1 loss Michigan gets in over a 2 loss conference champ other than the SEC. I think they probably get in over a 1-loss non conference champ TCU. Then it would come down to UNC or Clemson losing another regular season game then winning their championship.

But you’re right, OSU losing a close one probably gives the Big Ten the better chance at two teams.
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You’re probably correct
For the same reason the gophers might be ranked.

Someone has to be top 25
Someone has to be top 4
 

The SEC will force Georgia to throw the title game to LSU. Exact same thing as happened last year, with them throwing the game to Alabama.

But now this year there's also Tennessee, who only lost to Georgia. Come on Vandy!! :D
 

Gophers_4life said:
The SEC will force Georgia to throw the title game to LSU. Exact same thing as happened last year, with them throwing the game to Alabama.

But now this year there's also Tennessee, who only lost to Georgia. Come on Vandy!! :D
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The SEC’s best chance for 2 is Georgia winning and having TN get in

LSU winning would throw some things off a bit.
Probably LSU should go before Georgia. But Georgia before TN.
But TN before LSU


Penn state two loss conference champ was left out for Ohio state one year.
then again, there might be just a few 1 loss teams left

If Baylor beats TCU and then TCU doesn’t win the conference championship game it could end up 2 big ten and 2 SEC
 

True.

Basically, LSU losing to Florida State in that wild ending way back in Week 1, makes it not the same thing as last year with Alabama. That's basically the difference.
 

Gophers_4life said:
True.

Basically, LSU losing to Florida State in that wild ending way back in Week 1, makes it not the same thing as last year with Alabama. That's basically the difference.
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For sure.
It’s very comparable to PSU losing to Pitt then winning the big ten in 2016
 

Top 12 updated from last night:

g5g8Nvn.png
 

They're well into their mode of:
- if you win, you don't move down
- if X teams above you lose and all get moved down below you, then you move up X spots
- if you lose, then you can move down an arbitrary number of spots.



Ohio St, Michigan, and Penn St should all be safe now for NY6 bowls.

OSU is @ Maryland and Mich
Mich is Illinois and @ OSU
Penn St is @ Rutgers and Mich St

The OSU/Mich game won't move the loser out of the top 12 and assuming all other games are wins.


That puts the West winner and runner up likely into the major two Florida NYD (Jan 2 this year) bowls.
 

So let’s say LSU beats Georgia, TCU and Ohio St or Michigan go undefeated, and then both USC and Clemson win their conference championships with just 1 loss.

In that situation TCU and OSU/Michigan are in of course. Who gets the other 2 spots? Clemson would be out. So it would be USC, Georgia and LSU up for the final 2 spots.

Probably dumb to speculate as I don’t think LSU beats Georgia. Still very much possible that the Big Ten gets two teams in.
 

This is crazy. USC has to be in over Ohio St now if they beat Utah, right?

 

^^^^^^ Michigan beats TCU

OSU upsets Georgia

OSU takes their revenge.
 

GophersInIowa said:
This is crazy. USC has to be in over Ohio St now if they beat Utah, right?

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If TCU and USC both win their conference championship games it will be 1Georgia vs 4USC and 2Michigan vs 3TCU in the semis.

The committee values conference championships and avoiding bad losses. OSU is out on both counts and Alabama is out on the former.
 


GophersInIowa said:
This is crazy. USC has to be in over Ohio St now if they beat Utah, right?

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Yeah, but USC has to actually beat Utah. They’re only a 2.5 pt favorite, so it’s almost a coin-toss.

Plus, Ohio State probably gets in if TCU loses (another 2.5 pt favorite).
 


GophersInIowa said:
This is crazy. USC has to be in over Ohio St now if they beat Utah, right?

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That has to be some kind of mistake.

Real odds should be something like:
Georgia IN
Michigan 90+%
USC 60-65%
TCU 55-60%
OSU 50%
Alabama 25%

If the committee puts Bama above the Buckeyes this week then flip those last two percentages.
 

Goldmember said:
Yeah, but USC has to actually beat Utah. They’re only a 2.5 pt favorite, so it’s almost a coin-toss.

Plus, Ohio State probably gets in if TCU loses (another 2.5 pt favorite).
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Right but then it should be in the 50-60% range.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Right but then it should be in the 50-60% range.
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Yeah … I suppose it should be higher for USC.

Though, I don’t think Ohio State falls as much in the CFP rankings as they did in the AP Poll. And from there they probably need a convincing win against Utah to jump OSU, rather than a one-score win.
 

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