All Things 2020-2021 Minnesota Twins Off-Season Thread

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Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Woo Hoo!!

Cleveland trades Francisco Lindor to the Mets! Don't really give a shit what the Indians got in return, Lindor was a Twins killer. Good to see him GONE. Nice to see some more offseason activity to follow as well. Spring Training not really that far off
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Mets Magic is/are comin' back!!
 

nitramnaed said:
Okay. I've been home for some time staying away for Covid. In these times you spend a lot of time on the internet. Well, I guess I reached the end of the internet because I came across a podcast about Barbara Dare, 80's/90's porn star. I guess she had been out of the industry for some 25 years. I'm not going to pretend I don't know who she is. Anyway, it was a pretty good interview and interesting what life was like in that industry at that time. She talked about her relationships outside of the business, Keanu Reeves and others but it came up that she had a relationship with someone from the Minnesota Twins during one of their World Series. She didn't say what year, '87 or '91. My speculation is that is was '91. She said that she broke it off after a trip to Barbados when he wanted her to give up the porn industry. I can only think of one guy that this might be. Scott Erickson. As many old timers would know he was a notorious womanizer back in the day. I even remember talk of a of a local woman sports beat reporter and him in the bathroom at Bullwinkle's. I remember that bathroom, it was not health department standard. I spent a lot of time at the bar drinking beer and eating Coney's.
I know this is gossip but I'd be interested if anyone knows if I'm on the right track.
Just a blast from the past and all in fun.
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No idea, but that makes sense. The only other one that occurred to me while reading this was Knoblauch. Puckett was a one-mistress kind of guy from what I've read.
 

howeda7 said:
No idea, but that makes sense. The only other one that occurred to me while reading this was Knoblauch. Puckett was a one-mistress kind of guy from what I've read.
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I don't see Knaaw-blah as anyone who could have attracted a porn star. Just sayin'
 


howeda7 said:
No idea, but that makes sense. The only other one that occurred to me while reading this was Knoblauch. Puckett was a one-mistress kind of guy from what I've read.
[/QUOTE

FWIW - Dan Gladden was a legendary player back in the day. I was friends with a guy who worked in radio as a DJ/production - no one famous, but a good dude who had worked in Milwaukee before moving to MN. He was friends with a local DJ there and was Gladden's GF when the Twins were in town; she also had the same set up with players from other teams as did Gladden and that was the nature of their relationship.

I also saw him at Micky's when I was eating there late one Friday night/Saturday morning. His date was a of course a knockout, but I was surprised at how thick he was - broad shoulders, thick legs and butt. I know he was a pro athlete and was about my size, 5'10'' 185 lbs and it made me chuckle as there is a vast difference between how we looked - even though I was/am active and worked out regularly.
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If Falvey and Levine are waiting to make a big move this off-season, they're running out of time.

Either A. they have a secret plan they are waiting to spring on us, or
B. ownership has refused to spend any money, so they won't be adding any players and will have to pull guys up from the minors to fill holes.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
If Falvey and Levine are waiting to make a big move this off-season, they're running out of time.

Either A. they have a secret plan they are waiting to spring on us, or
B. ownership has refused to spend any money, so they won't be adding any players and will have to pull guys up from the minors to fill holes.
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Apparently you're new to Twins fandom?

Yankees just took a flyer on a former Cy Young winner, as they can afford to take a chance on somebody like that hoping he's healthy and good (again). Twins sit by and wonder why they get blown out in the playoffs.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
If Falvey and Levine are waiting to make a big move this off-season, they're running out of time.

Either A. they have a secret plan they are waiting to spring on us, or
B. ownership has refused to spend any money, so they won't be adding any players and will have to pull guys up from the minors to fill holes.
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Yes and no. The market is moving like glaciers. A whole bunch of guys are going to end up taking 1-year deals at the last minute. I'll withhold judgement. But they need a DH, starting pitcher, 2 relievers and perhaps an IF'er. So they do need to start sooner than later.
 



Speaking of: Twins sign J.A Happ. Not splashy, but a pretty good #3 or #4 starter. Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ, Dobnak is a solid rotation.

www.baseball-reference.com

J.A. Happ Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

Check out the latest Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More of J.A. Happ. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, bats, throws, school and more on Baseball-reference.com
www.baseball-reference.com www.baseball-reference.com
 

howeda7 said:
Speaking of: Twins sign J.A Happ. Not splashy, but a pretty good #3 or #4 starter. Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ, Dobnak is a solid rotation.

www.baseball-reference.com

J.A. Happ Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

Check out the latest Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More of J.A. Happ. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, bats, throws, school and more on Baseball-reference.com
www.baseball-reference.com www.baseball-reference.com
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I like having a lefty in the rotation, so I'll take this as a reasonable signing and allows to allocate more money for Nelson, if we get hosed and the DH goes to the NL, thus increasing his pool of suitor and maybe upping his yearly salary. i'm good with Dobnak based on last year's performance.
 

Personally I would have rather gone with Smeltzer/Thorpe as a lefty starter (at least to start the year) and saved the money for relievers or lineup. Happ is old AF and is a typical Twins free agent signing. Yeah, he'll be fine but throwing out Smeltzer or Thorpe wouldn't be a huge downgrade in my opinion.
 

tmvander said:
Personally I would have rather gone with Smeltzer/Thorpe as a lefty starter (at least to start the year) and saved the money for relievers or lineup. Happ is old AF and is a typical Twins free agent signing. Yeah, he'll be fine but throwing out Smeltzer or Thorpe wouldn't be a huge downgrade in my opinion.
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They’ll both still get plenty of opportunities as we know there will be injuries. I prefer going with a proven guy like Happ over two guys that haven’t done much yet.
 



GophersInIowa said:
They’ll both still get plenty of opportunities as we know there will be injuries. I prefer going with a proven guy like Happ over two guys that haven’t done much yet.
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His contract wasn't crazy expensive and I haven't followed free agency quite as much as usual so I'm not sure what relievers are even still around so maybe it was the smart move.
 

tmvander said:
Personally I would have rather gone with Smeltzer/Thorpe as a lefty starter (at least to start the year) and saved the money for relievers or lineup. Happ is old AF and is a typical Twins free agent signing. Yeah, he'll be fine but throwing out Smeltzer or Thorpe wouldn't be a huge downgrade in my opinion.
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Neither Smeltzer or Thorpe was nearly as good as Happ last year. Plus we will end up needing 7-8 starters to get through the season.
 

howeda7 said:
Neither Smeltzer or Thorpe was nearly as good as Happ last year. Plus we will end up needing 7-8 starters to get through the season.
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Exactly. There will be injuries, so mapping out a starting 5 is a fool's errand. IMO, Happ is a half-step above a Homer Bailey-level signing, so at least it's something. Of course, I'm not sure any of it matters. Will this move the needle in the post season? Not a chance. With MLB going to the "everybody gets a trophy" style postseason, there isn't as much need to try and win a bunch in the regular season just to get in. Now that basically everybody gets in, you should be forming your roster to try and do damage in the postseason.
 

forever a gopher said:
Exactly. There will be injuries, so mapping out a starting 5 is a fool's errand. IMO, Happ is a half-step above a Homer Bailey-level signing, so at least it's something. Of course, I'm not sure any of it matters. Will this move the needle in the post season? Not a chance. With MLB going to the "everybody gets a trophy" style postseason, there isn't as much need to try and win a bunch in the regular season just to get in. Now that basically everybody gets in, you should be forming your roster to try and do damage in the postseason.
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Well and that's another point. I'd rather spend the 8 mil on a solid reliever who we'll need more in the playoffs than a #4 or 5 starter. Happ is a step above Baily like you said, and he'll provide some depth for injuries but at the end of the day its another signing to really not move the needle
 

tmvander said:
Well and that's another point. I'd rather spend the 8 mil on a solid reliever who we'll need more in the playoffs than a #4 or 5 starter. Happ is a step above Baily like you said, and he'll provide some depth for injuries but at the end of the day its another signing to really not move the needle
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Happ was signed for $8MM. Kluber signed a 1-year deal with the Yankees for $11MM. Now, they are a more attractive destination, so the Twins may not have been able to get a guy like him for that money. But at face value for the sake of argument, at least Kluber has the potential to be dominant, and you can control his innings in the regular season to try and keep him healthy in the hopes that he can be a force in the post season, knowing you're not getting 150+ innings out of him in the regular season. Maybe Kluber is done for and the Yanks can afford to take a flyer on him. But that is the type of roster formation that teams may need to move to- get guys that have shown the ability to be dominant, hoping that you can use them in the post season. Instead of focusing on guys that are "innings eaters" or "durable". If their peak is mid-level at best, you're likely not using them in a short post season series anyway.

As long as you have a core of players that can get you to .500 during the regular season, guys 22-25 on the roster should be geared towards the post season, IMO.
 

forever a gopher said:
Exactly. There will be injuries, so mapping out a starting 5 is a fool's errand. IMO, Happ is a half-step above a Homer Bailey-level signing, so at least it's something. Of course, I'm not sure any of it matters. Will this move the needle in the post season? Not a chance. With MLB going to the "everybody gets a trophy" style postseason, there isn't as much need to try and win a bunch in the regular season just to get in. Now that basically everybody gets in, you should be forming your roster to try and do damage in the postseason.
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They haven't officially said 8 teams yet. I hope they go back to 5 or at least 6. The regular season becomes meaningless otherwise. They're fools if they don't realize it.
 

tmvander said:
Well and that's another point. I'd rather spend the 8 mil on a solid reliever who we'll need more in the playoffs than a #4 or 5 starter. Happ is a step above Baily like you said, and he'll provide some depth for injuries but at the end of the day its another signing to really not move the needle
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They've been in on relievers too and will surely sign 1-2. But the ones good enough to command $8 million usually also command 2-3 year deals and rarely work out.
 

forever a gopher said:
Happ was signed for $8MM. Kluber signed a 1-year deal with the Yankees for $11MM. Now, they are a more attractive destination, so the Twins may not have been able to get a guy like him for that money. But at face value for the sake of argument, at least Kluber has the potential to be dominant, and you can control his innings in the regular season to try and keep him healthy in the hopes that he can be a force in the post season, knowing you're not getting 150+ innings out of him in the regular season. Maybe Kluber is done for and the Yanks can afford to take a flyer on him. But that is the type of roster formation that teams may need to move to- get guys that have shown the ability to be dominant, hoping that you can use them in the post season. Instead of focusing on guys that are "innings eaters" or "durable". If their peak is mid-level at best, you're likely not using them in a short post season series anyway.

As long as you have a core of players that can get you to .500 during the regular season, guys 22-25 on the roster should be geared towards the post season, IMO.
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Kluber is 35 and hasn't pitched anything close to a full season in 3 years. He certainly has more upside, but there's a 2/3 chance he will be hurt or worse than Happ.
 

Saw an interesting stat on Happ. The first two times through the batting order, his numbers are very good - but the 3rd time through the order, his numbers balloon.

So, it's been speculated that Twins are going to use him strictly as a 5-inning pitcher.

Which means you need to have not only good arms in the bullpen, but a guy or two who are capable of going multiple innings.
 

howeda7 said:
They haven't officially said 8 teams yet. I hope they go back to 5 or at least 6. The regular season becomes meaningless otherwise. They're fools if they don't realize it.
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Yes, you are correct. I have no idea how they haven't announced that yet. Like I said, a smart team would be built slightly differently depending on how the playoffs are laid out. I still can't believe these major decisions are just hanging out there still.

The skeptic in me assumes they'll keep it like they did in 2020, because well, money rules all. Generally speaking, owners only care about one thing- money. Adding teams to the playoffs doesn't do anything to diminish the financial value of the team, but it does provide instant cash. Long term, it waters down the product, and makes the regular season less intense. But the other side affect that owners will love is it keeps teams "in the race" much longer, and makes it easer to sell tickets in Aug/Sept to a team who is "only 4 games back of a wildcard spot!" Nevermind they're 10 games under .500 and not that great.
 

forever a gopher said:
Yes, you are correct. I have no idea how they haven't announced that yet. Like I said, a smart team would be built slightly differently depending on how the playoffs are laid out. I still can't believe these major decisions are just hanging out there still.

The skeptic in me assumes they'll keep it like they did in 2020, because well, money rules all. Generally speaking, owners only care about one thing- money. Adding teams to the playoffs doesn't do anything to diminish the financial value of the team, but it does provide instant cash. Long term, it waters down the product, and makes the regular season less intense. But the other side affect that owners will love is it keeps teams "in the race" much longer, and makes it easer to sell tickets in Aug/Sept to a team who is "only 4 games back of a wildcard spot!" Nevermind they're 10 games under .500 and not that great.
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Long term 8 teams hurts attendance and local TV ratings. It's bad enough in the NHL and NBA and they play half as many games.

If you go to 6 teams and expand the WC round to 3 games, that's still adding ~ 8 play-off games to your TV pot without making the regular season a joke. Hell, make the WC round 5 games and the divisional round 7 if you want more play-off games. It would also make having the 1st or 2nd best record mean more so you wouldn't have division winners coasting as much.
 

howeda7 said:
Kluber is 35 and hasn't pitched anything close to a full season in 3 years. He certainly has more upside, but there's a 2/3 chance he will be hurt or worse than Happ.
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You are probably correct. My example was just that- an example. I'm not advocating that the Twins should have signed Kluber for that kind of money. Rather, it's merely an indicator as to how the Yankees can keep doing what they're doing in the postseason, while the Twins are left holding the bag. In this specific example, Kluber's ceiling is way higher than that of Happ. Of course, his floor is also way lower. But IF he stays healthy (or you greatly limit his regular season usage, which frankly the Yanks can probably do), he is a guy that you can throw out there in a post season start and get you a win. It's unlikely Happ is that kind of a guy. It's just a different perspective on who you sign and for what purpose. I'm not saying necessarily the Twins can do the same thing, as their payrolls are vastly different. Merely, an observation on why we shouldn't be surprised when things happen the way they do in the playoffs. It's not always the Stanton trades/signings that make it happen. Sometimes, it's just taking a flyer on a guy like Kluber with high upside.
 

howeda7 said:
Long term 8 teams hurts attendance and local TV ratings. It's bad enough in the NHL and NBA and they play half as many games.

If you go to 6 teams and expand the WC round to 3 games, that's still adding ~ 8 play-off games to your TV pot without making the regular season a joke. Hell, make the WC round 5 games and the divisional round 7 if you want more play-off games. It would also make having the 1st or 2nd best record mean more so you wouldn't have division winners coasting as much.
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I'm not disagreeing with you at all. I honestly didn't like the added wildcard when they added that. I would have been fine keeping it at 4 teams. It may hurt teams like the Yankees and Dodgers, but they're going to sell out regardless if the regular season means as much or not. But it does boost middling teams attendance after the all star game when they have traditionally been all but eliminated.
 

howeda7 said:
Long term 8 teams hurts attendance and local TV ratings. It's bad enough in the NHL and NBA and they play half as many games.

If you go to 6 teams and expand the WC round to 3 games, that's still adding ~ 8 play-off games to your TV pot without making the regular season a joke. Hell, make the WC round 5 games and the divisional round 7 if you want more play-off games. It would also make having the 1st or 2nd best record mean more so you wouldn't have division winners coasting as much.
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Well, the other problem is the season is too damn long. The NBA/NHL could be 65 games, and MLB could be 120 games. I don't think fans would be missing anything. Now, that's never going to happen, but it would be a win if they could even lop off 10 games from each league.
 

tmvander said:
His contract wasn't crazy expensive and I haven't followed free agency quite as much as usual so I'm not sure what relievers are even still around so maybe it was the smart move.
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He was so so last year, as he battled injuries at 2-2 with a ~3.7 ERA, but he is 60-34 since 2017, so I like that experience, as I don't like having two young guys in the 4 and 5 spots.
 
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Great article on Happ signing from The Athletic -

Few players are significantly better in their 30s than they were in their 20s, and even fewer maintain that improvement as they near age 40. J.A. Happ is one of them, and in signing the 38-year-old left-hander to a one-year, $8 million deal on Wednesday the Twins have made an investment in a late-blooming, late-30s free agent for the third straight offseason.

Now they just need this one to work out as well as the first two did.

Two winters ago the Twins signed a 38-year-old Nelson Cruz, one of the most prominent late-bloomers in baseball history, in a move that now ranks as one of the best in team history. Last offseason it was Rich Hill, at age 39 and coming back from elbow surgery, an incentive-laden one-year pickup that paid off with a 3.03 ERA in eight starts during the abbreviated, 60-game 2020 campaign.

Happ is a natural replacement for Hill, and for now at least slots into the No. 4 spot in the rotation after Kenta Maeda, José Berríos and Michael Pineda, with Randy Dobnak penciled into the fifth spot as the Twins likely continue to shop the free-agent market. While not an exciting addition, Happ offers consistent competence and the same type of respected veteran presence provided by Hill.

There are no wide-scale mechanical adjustments planned for Happ, and the Twins aren’t banking on massive pitch-mix changes to tap into undiscovered upside. Instead, the Twins just need Happ to keep doing what he’s been doing on the way to posting a sub-3.75 ERA in five of the past six seasons, including a 3.47 ERA and career-best swinging-strike rate in his nine 2020 starts for the Yankees.

Happ went 72-39 with a 3.74 ERA in 900 2/3 innings from 2015-2020, good for the 28th-best ERA among pitchers with at least 100 starts during that six-year span, sandwiched between Sonny Gray (3.72) and James Paxton (3.72) on one side, Maeda (3.75) and Marcus Stroman (3.78) on the other. Happ is available at a much lower price point than similar pitchers because of his age.

However, he showed no signs of decline in 2020, and in fact looked as good as ever in striking out 42 vs. just 15 walks in 49 1/3 innings, holding opponents to a career-low .208 batting average. Happ swapped out some four-seam fastballs for two-seam sinkers in an effort to limit homers after serving up a career-high 34 in an underwhelming 2019, and he also relied more on an improved slider.

No longer calling Yankee Stadium home could enable Happ to be less focused on avoiding fly balls, perhaps leading to an uptick in high fastballs paired with sliders to lefties and changeups to righties. It’s a pretty straightforward recipe for success, and the late-career development of his slider from middling to bat-missing weapon is reason to think he can continue out-running Father Time.

Happ’s slider usage bottomed out at just 6.5 percent in 2014. Last year, he used the pitch nearly three times as often and it was a different animal, generating a whiff on 31.7 percent of swings, by far a career high. His slider also registered the best spin rate (2,260 RPM) and the most horizontal movement (2.5 inches) of his career in 2020.

YEARUSAGE%WHIFF%H-MOVE
202018.731.72.5
201917.421.22.2
201812.727.41.7
201712.320.90.0
201612.925.51.2
201513.624.21.2
Compared to 2015-2018, the slider Happ has thrown the past two seasons got twice as much horizontal movement and almost 50 percent more whiffs. His fastball velocity dipped about 1.5 mph during that same time, clocking in at 91.6 mph last year, but that’s actually harder than he threw breaking into the majors with the Phillies from 2007-2010.

Happ’s signing may be disappointing for anyone who had visions of a big-ticket free agent joining the rotation, but the Twins return the three best starters from a rotation that had the league’s second-best ERA last season. This is a move to provide stability behind the Maeda-Berríos-Pineda trio, and getting an above-average, veteran starter for $8 million is a solid pickup.

I ranked Happ as the No. 15 starter in this free-agent class, and $8 million for one year is the exact same contract José Quintana (ranked No. 10) and Robbie Ray (13) received. Charlie Morton (6) and Corey Kluber (8), two known Twins targets with more upside, inked one-year deals for $15 million and $11 million, respectively, while Mike Minor (14) secured a two-year, $18 million deal.

What comes next for the Twins is unclear. Happ shouldn’t preclude them from pursuing higher-end rotation help in an incredibly slow-moving market where playoff-caliber starters Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, Jake Odorizzi, Taijuan Walker and Garrett Richards are unsigned, in addition to Cy Young-winning headliner Trevor Bauer. However, they also have several other big holes to fill.

For now, they’ve established a floor for the rotation with four quality veterans and Dobnak, the owner of a 3.12 ERA in 75 career innings, on call to fill the fifth spot if needed. That allows the Twins to let the market come to them as pitchers scramble to find decent paydays just weeks before spring training. If nothing else, they figure to add a low-cost veteran to compete with Dobnak.

In the meantime, the Twins’ focus is now more clearly than ever on re-signing Cruz or finding a replacement big bat in the middle of the lineup, as well as on restocking the right-handed bullpen options and adding much-needed infield depth. Happ bumps the projected payroll just over $100 million, which is $40 million or so under last year’s franchise-record opening-day mark.

However, like many teams, the Twins are likely planning for a reduced payroll in response to big revenue losses from COVID-19 and the overall uncertainty surrounding the 2021 season. Dan Hayes reported last month that the baseline payroll may be closer to $120 million, which could get tricky unless the Twins tap into the expected “wiggle room” he also described.

If their self-imposed budget is indeed around $120 million, re-signing Cruz for something close to the $13 million he averaged the past two years would leave less than $10 million to address the infield and bullpen, not to mention further rotation reinforcements. Happ is a sound signing, solidifying the rotation with a dependable veteran, but it really only works as part of a bigger plan.
 


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