3 Reasons Michigan State Will Upset Minnesota in Week 4

MNVCGUY

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I’m pumped for this game so we can’t shut everyone up.

However, there’s a chance that we can get beat and I’m not sure how I will recover from that. Have to read and watch everyone say “we knew MN was a joke, their stats are padded from playing HS teams, blah blah…”

I just hope we get this one because if we don’t, even with 8 more games left, MN will always be looked as a Tier 3 B1G team.
Only way people are calling us a joke after this one is if we go there and get blown out which I just don't see happening. Losing a close game on the road wouldn't be a big deal and certainly wouldn't ruin our season.

I think we have the better team of the two but not by a wide margin. Just have to go out and execute on Saturday and see what happens.
 


laazrakit

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If he brings back the 2019 play the gophers will be tough to beat.
I'm certain the Michigan State is planning to find out if Tanner and Kirk can recreate the magic, as they're sure to stack the box and try to suffocate the run game. They've got the personnel to make a legit attempt at this... Although I'm sure Mo's got something to say about that.

It might very well come down to Tanner making some key passes to open up the running game... Yeah, he doesn't have 2019's Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman now... or Chris Autman-Bell, for that matter... but he does have Dylan Wright, Daniel Jackson & Michael Brown-Stephens. I think, more importantly, he's got Brevyn Spann-Ford. I'm thinking that we finally see Brevyn's coming out party, as they say... He's a matchup nightmare for MSU and might very well be the difference maker.
 

FredCoxRocks

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To me, this is the worst of the reasons. I can see ignoring Morgan's 2019 season to make your argument look better (I don't agree with doing it, but I can understand why). But the previous 6 games have NOTHING to do with this upcoming Saturday. Heck, most of those 6 would have been with last year's team anyways!

This is from his "3 Reasons Michigan State Will Upset Washington in Week 3" from last week. :p

Betting Trends

The Spartans are a bettor’s best friend of late. With outright wins in four of their last five games as underdogs, Michigan State is always feisty with Mel Tucker at the helm.

Prior to crushing soft opponents in the first two weeks this year, Washington had covered the spread just once in its last eight games as a home favorite, losing four of those outright.

Don’t forget that Washington is just 4-8 against the spread in its last dozen games against the Big Ten, losing three straight outright.
 



FredCoxRocks

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One of Summer's 3 reasons...

Improving Offense:
While the first half against Washington was rough for Payton Thorne and the Spartans’ offense, Michigan State actually outscored the Huskies 20-10 in the 2nd half. Thorne looked decisive and accurate, while Keon Coleman is making a case as one of the Big Ten’s best receivers through three weeks.
Minnesota’s defense ranks 110th nationally in sacks and
128th in red zone efficiency, which should give Thorne and Coleman the time they need to make the Gophers pay for mistakes.
Look for a statement performance from Thorne as the Spartans utilize Minnesota’s weak pass rush to dial up huge plays in a victory.


How many times have Minnesota's opponents been in the red zone?...2?...3?.
 

FullBanana

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One of Summer's 3 reasons...

Improving Offense:
While the first half against Washington was rough for Payton Thorne and the Spartans’ offense, Michigan State actually outscored the Huskies 20-10 in the 2nd half. Thorne looked decisive and accurate, while Keon Coleman is making a case as one of the Big Ten’s best receivers through three weeks.
Minnesota’s defense ranks 110th nationally in sacks and
128th in red zone efficiency, which should give Thorne and Coleman the time they need to make the Gophers pay for mistakes.
Look for a statement performance from Thorne as the Spartans utilize Minnesota’s weak pass rush to dial up huge plays in a victory.


How many times have Minnesota's opponents been in the red zone?...2?...3?.
And how many times with the first stringers in? Clown show article.
 

Dakota2

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I'm certain the Michigan State is planning to find out if Tanner and Kirk can recreate the magic, as they're sure to stack the box and try to suffocate the run game. They've got the personnel to make a legit attempt at this... Although I'm sure Mo's got something to say about that.

It might very well come down to Tanner making some key passes to open up the running game... Yeah, he doesn't have 2019's Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman now... or Chris Autman-Bell, for that matter... but he does have Dylan Wright, Daniel Jackson & Michael Brown-Stephens. I think, more importantly, he's got Brevyn Spann-Ford. I'm thinking that we finally see Brevyn's coming out party, as they say... He's a matchup nightmare for MSU and might very well be the difference maker.
Don't understand the continually expressed hopes for BSF's "coming out party".

BSF is second on the team in both receptions and yards. He will take the field Saturday as our leader in receptions and yards, with CRAB sidelined.

Tight ends have caught 24% of the passes in three games. Those still waiting for Ciracca to break out the tight ends haven't been watching.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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One of Summer's 3 reasons...

Improving Offense:
While the first half against Washington was rough for Payton Thorne and the Spartans’ offense, Michigan State actually outscored the Huskies 20-10 in the 2nd half. Thorne looked decisive and accurate, while Keon Coleman is making a case as one of the Big Ten’s best receivers through three weeks.
Minnesota’s defense ranks 110th nationally in sacks and
128th in red zone efficiency, which should give Thorne and Coleman the time they need to make the Gophers pay for mistakes.
Look for a statement performance from Thorne as the Spartans utilize Minnesota’s weak pass rush to dial up huge plays in a victory.


How many times have Minnesota's opponents been in the red zone?...2?...3?.
Gophers are #1 in the nation in TOP, averaging 39 minutes per game, and #2 in the nation in First Downs allowed.

I have no doubt that they are ranked extremely low in Sacks, considering the defense is hardly ever on the field; averaging being on the field for 44 plays per game. Damn.

Not sure what they're talking about with RZ Efficiency either, the Gophers have been in the RZ 19 times and scored on 18 of those trips.

I think their stats person is suffering from a major hangover after that Washington game.

EDIT: Whoops, that was RZ Defense, my bad.

Gophers opponents have been in the RZ a WHOPPING three (3) times in three games and scored all 3. Simply horrendous!!!
 



hungan1

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One of Summer's 3 reasons...

Improving Offense:
While the first half against Washington was rough for Payton Thorne and the Spartans’ offense, Michigan State actually outscored the Huskies 20-10 in the 2nd half. Thorne looked decisive and accurate, while Keon Coleman is making a case as one of the Big Ten’s best receivers through three weeks.
Minnesota’s defense ranks 110th nationally in sacks and
128th in red zone efficiency, which should give Thorne and Coleman the time they need to make the Gophers pay for mistakes.
Look for a statement performance from Thorne as the Spartans utilize Minnesota’s weak pass rush to dial up huge plays in a victory.


How many times have Minnesota's opponents been in the red zone?...2?...3?.
The Gophers did not spend much time in the Red Zone in the first three games, IIRC.

The Gophers' Offensive Line will determine the game's outcome.
 

laazrakit

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Don't understand the continually expressed hopes for BSF's "coming out party".
Hopes...? Sure, although I'm fairly certain it is more of a must, this week. He's the one receiver that might be a reliable difference maker. I'll be more than happy to be wrong if Clay Geary goes off for 10/200 or Dylan or Daniel do it... but I think that BSF is the one to put my money on, were I a betting man.

Coming out party... as in being celebrated by national media, and not just on Gopherhole Forum. When the college football world knows how to spell his name, then he's had his coming out party.

Being the leading receiver for the Gophers these days (and only #1 because the actual leader is out for the season) is kinda like being the prettiest waitress over at Applebee's.
 





FredCoxRocks

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The Gophers did not spend much time in the Red Zone in the first three games, IIRC.

The Gophers' Offensive Line will determine the game's outcome.

Just to be clear, that stat was for red zone defense...not offense. But ya, our defense has kept opposing offenses out of the red zone quite well this year. According to NCAA FBS stats, Gopher opponents have two red zone attempts, both successful - one garbage TD against Colorado, and a FG. However, I don't know what field goal they're talking about...wasn't Western Illinois' FG a 47-yarder?

It's like the writer of the article just went searching for some category where Minnesota ranked near the bottom of the list and took off with it.

Anyway, here's a link to the stats page...
 

GopherTheJugular

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I just hope we get this one because if we don’t, even with 8 more games left, MN will always be looked as a Tier 3 B1G team.
I think you're putting 10,000 times more significance on this game than it deserves. It will look bad that we steamrolled cupcakes and then lost to our first real opponent, but we could still have a great season, and a loss to MSU will have no bearing on what people think of us next year.
 

GopherTheJugular

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However, I don't know what field goal they're talking about...wasn't Western Illinois' FG a 47-yarder?
I'm not sure what first goal they are talking about either, but if Western Illinois got inside the 20, then got pushed back by penalties/sacks, etc. then the 47 yard FG would still count as scoring after getting inside the red zone. So that could be it.
 

noamfromm

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Gophers opponents have been in the RZ a WHOPPING three (3) times in three games and scored all 3. Simply horrendous!!!
By my count we have allowed one team in the red zone and they scored a touchdown.
Western scored their 10 points outside of the redzone, 47 yd field goal and 33 yd pass.
Colorado did score in the redzone on a 4yd pass.
 


Grant

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Michigan states big advantage is having played Washington last week. I am very concerned at how we start this game having played 3 of the very worst teams in the country so far. We haven’t been tested on a single play this season.
 

MNVCGUY

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Just to be clear, that stat was for red zone defense...not offense. But ya, our defense has kept opposing offenses out of the red zone quite well this year. According to NCAA FBS stats, Gopher opponents have two red zone attempts, both successful - one garbage TD against Colorado, and a FG. However, I don't know what field goal they're talking about...wasn't Western Illinois' FG a 47-yarder?

It's like the writer of the article just went searching for some category where Minnesota ranked near the bottom of the list and took off with it.

Anyway, here's a link to the stats page...
The same can be said of touting MSU's run defense considering they have yet to face a good running team. The only power 5 team they have faced is Washington and they are very much a pass first team.
 

MNVCGUY

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Michigan states big advantage is having played Washington last week. I am very concerned at how we start this game having played 3 of the very worst teams in the country so far. We haven’t been tested on a single play this season.
Yes we have faced bad teams but they still have athletes out there capable of making plays if you give them the opportunity. We haven't been tested in a high pressure situation but it isn't like we were running plays against air either.

Also, while we haven't been in high pressure situations we have a very experienced team with lots of players who have faced those situations in the past. For example, I don't worry about Morgan, JMS, Ibrahim, Nubin, MSM.....getting rattled because they have been there before.
 

FullBanana

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Don't understand the continually expressed hopes for BSF's "coming out party".

BSF is second on the team in both receptions and yards. He will take the field Saturday as our leader in receptions and yards, with CRAB sidelined.

Tight ends have caught 24% of the passes in three games. Those still waiting for Ciracca to break out the tight ends haven't been watching.
This board loves it some tight ends…ain’t nothin wrong with that.
 

Grant

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Yes we have faced bad teams but they still have athletes out there capable of making plays if you give them the opportunity. We haven't been tested in a high pressure situation but it isn't like we were running plays against air either.

Also, while we haven't been in high pressure situations we have a very experienced team with lots of players who have faced those situations in the past. For example, I don't worry about Morgan, JMS, Ibrahim, Nubin, MSM.....getting rattled because they have been there before.
You could be right and I hope you are but I actually feel like we gained next to nothing from our first three games. I don’t want to be pessimistic by I expect MSU to score the first 14 points. Hopefully we can settle in after that.
 

cjbfbp

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Big Ten road games are brutal. This game will give us a good insight into this team's mental toughness as the stadium will be absolutely bonkers. Given that MSU is coming off a tough loss, they are going to be out for revenge. Looking forward to the game.

Certainly agree with that but Fleck's teams have done pretty well on the road over the last few years. Last season, the Gophers were 4-3 at home, 4-1 on the road, and 1-0 on a neutral field. Both of our bad losses (Bowling Green and Illinois) were at home and we had a too-close-for-comfort win (31-26) against Miami (OH) at home.
 

MNVCGUY

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You could be right and I hope you are but I actually feel like we gained next to nothing from our first three games. I don’t want to be pessimistic by I expect MSU to score the first 14 points. Hopefully we can settle in after that.
I know as Minnesota sports fans we are wired to expect the worst but I will clue you in on a little secret. Sports are a lot more fun when you are actually looking forward to the games believing your team has a shot as opposed to dreading the game just hoping your team doesn't get blown out. :)
 

noamfromm

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You could be right and I hope you are but I actually feel like we gained next to nothing from our first three games. I don’t want to be pessimistic by I expect MSU to score the first 14 points. Hopefully we can settle in after that.
bold prediction -- no team since Rossi was the DC has opened the game 14-0 against minnesota.
it happened 4 times with Smith ('17 Northwestern and Wisconsin, '18 Maryland and Iowa)
 


hello-world

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Hmmm I wonder why they limited to showing Morgan's stats only under Sanford...
I came into this article thinking to myself, "Hard to believe the Gophers are favored in this game." Walked away thinking, "If this is the best argument they have, I'm not sure Gophers by 1.5 is enough."
 


Gophergrandpa

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Is he a big threat to run? I heard their stud receiver missed last game due to a cut he received on the sideline the week before? I trust our coaches will have them ready, just need to execute.
I don’t think he is a QB option runner like Adrian Martinez (important cog in team’s designed rushing game), but he can pull the ball down and run. Can’t lose contain on him. He has some very talented receivers. Our DBs will get first real test of the season.
 




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