3 Reasons Michigan State Will Upset Minnesota in Week 4

BleedGopher

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per Summers:

Run Defense

Minnesota’s calling card is its rushing attack. Led by Mohammed Ibrahim, the Gophers rank second nationally with an absurd average of 315.5 yards per game.

Unstoppable force, meet immovable object. Michigan State allows just 89.7 rushing yards per contest with one of the best run defenses in the entire country. If the Spartans are able to slow Ibrahim down, Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan hasn’t shown he can led a successful offense.

Over the last two years, Morgan completed under 60% of his passes with only 17 TDs to 14 interceptions. Forcing Morgan to make plays is the key to a Michigan State victory.

Spartans’ Home-Field Advantage

Michigan State is an excellent home team, covering the spread in six straight games at Spartan Stadium.

The Spartans are stellar as a home underdog too. They’ve won three of four in this spot and should benefit from the typically-wild crowd. Especially if Michigan State is able to slow Ibrahim down, those raucous fans will make life difficult for Morgan and give the Spartans an edge.

Improving Offense

While the first half against Washington was rough for Payton Thorne and the Spartans’ offense, Michigan State actually outscored the Huskies 20-10 in the 2nd half. Thorne looked decisive and accurate, while Keon Coleman is making a case as one of the Big Ten’s best receivers through three weeks.


Go Gophers!!
 

Com_Cool

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Hmmm I wonder why they limited to showing Morgan's stats only under Sanford...
 





#2Gopher

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Going to be interesting as the game will clearly be the Gophers first big test. I'm confident though that the Gophers can pull it off. Won't be easy, but they don't give up easily.
 


MNVCGUY

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Not sure I would be as quick as this writer is to say the MSU has one of the best Run defenses in the country. They haven't faced a team anywhere close to us in terms of ability to run the football yet this year.

Heck, their 89 yards allowed per game is like 7th in the conference through the non-conf season and again, they haven't played a good rushing team. That said, Western Michigan rolled up over 175 yards on the ground against them but lost a bunch of those yards due to the 7 sacks they gave up which count against the QBs rushing stats in college.

MSU may absolutely win this game but this writer's reasons for why they might are shakey at best.
 

OddStack

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Michigan State is an excellent home team, covering the spread in six straight games at Spartan Stadium.

Gophers by 2.5 right now?
Minnesota wins by 1 or 2, spread is covered. Everyone goes home happy.
The moneyline was Gophers +156 on Sunday when I got t. Tuesday was the last time I checked, it had gone to -150.

Win, and I'll go home really happy!!!!!
 



fmlizard

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One thing we may have learned last week is that Michael Penix is really good.

He got Indiana to what was by original Covid rules the Big Ten championship game. They got much worse after he left.

If I were a NFL team I would like Penix a lot. I think the best QBs make average teams great. He knows what it's like to succeed without all the advantages of a CFP-type roster. I'll pick him over CJ Stroud.

I'm not sure if Washington is a lot better (they lost in November to Colorado last year) or MSU is regressing to their 2018-20 selves.
 

PMWinSTP

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Not sure I would be as quick as this writer is to say the MSU has one of the best Run defenses in the country. They haven't faced a team anywhere close to us in terms of ability to run the football yet this year.

Heck, their 89 yards allowed per game is like 7th in the conference through the non-conf season and again, they haven't played a good rushing team. That said, Western Michigan rolled up over 175 yards on the ground against them but lost a bunch of those yards due to the 7 sacks they gave up which count against the QBs rushing stats in college.

MSU may absolutely win this game but this writer's reasons for why they might are shakey at best.
I agree. They have not even come close to playing rushing offense like Gophers.
 

MNVCGUY

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One thing we may have learned last week is that Michael Penix is really good.

He got Indiana to what was by original Covid rules the Big Ten championship game. They got much worse after he left.

If I were a NFL team I would like Penix a lot. I think the best QBs make average teams great. He knows what it's like to succeed without all the advantages of a CFP-type roster. I'll pick him over CJ Stroud.

I'm not sure if Washington is a lot better (they lost in November to Colorado last year) or MSU is regressing to their 2018-20 selves.
Penix might be really good but he needs to prove it against a strong pass D first. MSU's secondary was a mess last year and it looks like it hasn't gotten much better this year. I mean he had guys running wide open all over the field against MSU.
 




GopherTheJugular

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Michigan State is an excellent home team, covering the spread in six straight games at Spartan Stadium.
To me, this is the worst of the reasons. I can see ignoring Morgan's 2019 season to make your argument look better (I don't agree with doing it, but I can understand why). But the previous 6 games have NOTHING to do with this upcoming Saturday. Heck, most of those 6 would have been with last year's team anyways!
 





fair

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Hmmm I wonder why they limited to showing Morgan's stats only under Sanford...
“Tanner Morgan hasn’t shown he can lead a successful offense”

*except the years that he has*

PSU-graphic.png
 

gopherbadgerman

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Morgan had a tremendous season in 2019. Every other year he has been an average QB. If he brings back the 2019 play the gophers will be tough to beat. Remains to be seen.
 


GO4INLALALAND

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Big Ten road games are brutal. This game will give us a good insight into this team's mental toughness as the stadium will be absolutely bonkers. Given that MSU is coming off a tough loss, they are going to be out for revenge. Looking forward to the game.
 


btowngopher

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One thing we may have learned last week is that Michael Penix is really good.

He got Indiana to what was by original Covid rules the Big Ten championship game. They got much worse after he left.

If I were a NFL team I would like Penix a lot. I think the best QBs make average teams great. He knows what it's like to succeed without all the advantages of a CFP-type roster. I'll pick him over CJ Stroud.

I'm not sure if Washington is a lot better (they lost in November to Colorado last year) or MSU is regressing to their 2018-20 selves.
I'm not ready to say Penix is really good. He has shown a lot of promise at times, but has never played more than 6 games in a season. He was pretty bad last year for Indiana, and it's not like 2020 Indiana was only good because of him.
 



soneillumn

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It's great to be in the position where a loss against a (over the past 15 years) top-half B1G team would be an upset, even if a close one according to the bookies.
 



Yah-E

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I’m pumped for this game so we can’t shut everyone up.

However, there’s a chance that we can get beat and I’m not sure how I will recover from that. Have to read and watch everyone say “we knew MN was a joke, their stats are padded from playing HS teams, blah blah…”

I just hope we get this one because if we don’t, even with 8 more games left, MN will always be looked as a Tier 3 B1G team.
 




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