2025 NFL Circa Survivor Pool

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Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Guy is getting a terrible price on his money for this hedge though. I know you have to do something, but at what is now Cowboys -475, this guy is only going to win just shy of $250,000 on his $1,181,000 bet.

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It’s tough. You have to drum up enough capital to bet and you’re in awesome shape if commanders win. No one would want to be on his ticket with only those two teams left. But that’s a good guaranteed win to take home
 

Surprisingly, 9 lucky folks are moving on for Survivor. I didn't see that coming. If you were one of the folks on the Vikings today, you have made it this far by picking TWO pretty sizable underdogs, one on each of the holiday weekends.

Patriots are by far the biggest favorites this weekend, AT the Jets; looks like just 4 of the remaining 9 alive have the Patriots available. Hard to believe they won't all be on the Patriots.

Next two biggest favorites, the Rams and Seattle, nobody has available. Next two biggest favorites, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay, 7 of the 9 remaining (not the same teams), have either of these or both remaining.

At this point, you have to kind of look at who might be sitting a shitload of people in the next few weeks.
 

One of the guys I listen to said he has a crazy random parlay bet out there right now that's actually frighteningly close to hitting. It's still a longshot, but damn, it's still in play

Tyler Shough - Rookie of the Year
Ben Johnson - Coach of the Year
Myles Garrett - Defensive Player of the Year

$20 bet to win around $34,000
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
One of the guys I listen to said he has a crazy random parlay bet out there right now that's actually frighteningly close to hitting. It's still a longshot, but damn, it's still in play

Tyler Shough - Rookie of the Year
Ben Johnson - Coach of the Year
Myles Garrett - Defensive Player of the Year

$20 bet to win around $34,000
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It’s unfortunate. Shough would’ve had a real shot had he started out the gate. His numbers just won’t be high enough compared to Tet which makes it dead. Johnson wont win either
 

Woof. I have to seriously question taking Tampa Bay on the road against Miami. Pretty ballsy taking the Giants on the road in Vegas, but it looks like it may work out for them.

G9OMhrJbgAAj_Me.jpg
 


Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Woof. I have to seriously question taking Tampa Bay on the road against Miami. Pretty ballsy taking the Giants on the road in Vegas, but it looks like it may work out for them.

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1 week left. 6 entries. $3M implied value each. Sure they're hedging like crazy and/or selling shares. Wonder who they have left.
 

TNGophfan said:
1 week left. 6 entries. $3M implied value each. Sure they're hedging like crazy and/or selling shares. Wonder who they have left.
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The 3 highest percent chance to win next week, Rams, Buffalo, Jacksonville; nobody remaining has them available. It looks like New England is the next best pick, and I think one person has them remaining. I think a few have Philly and Cincy, who would be some of the next highest win percentage picks. Denver is in there but nobody has them

Considering the Patriots are fighting for the #1 overall seed, I'd say the one guy that has them available is looking solid
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
The 3 highest percent chance to win next week, Rams, Buffalo, Jacksonville; nobody remaining has them available. It looks like New England is the next best pick, and I think one person has them remaining. I think a few have Philly and Cincy, who would be some of the next highest win percentage picks. Denver is in there but nobody has them

Considering the Patriots are fighting for the #1 overall seed, I'd say the one guy that has them available is looking solid
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If if and buts we're candy and nuts.... my week 14 upset by Saints over Bucs killed me. My next 3 picks (Niners, Texans and Bengals) won and I would have had Jacksonville this week. Oh well. F the Saints and whoever that rookie qb is. Have to say though, Saints were/are trending much better.
 

I'd imagine some will look at the Vikings given the Packers will likely sit all their starters.
Texans seem like a solid option and will play to win regardless due to seeding.
I'd be going Pats though if I had them as Quinn Ewers will be making his second start ever and the Pats have everything to play for, are at home, and they're just significantly better than the Dolphins
 



TNGophfan said:
If if and buts we're candy and nuts.... my week 14 upset by Saints over Bucs killed me. My next 3 picks (Niners, Texans and Bengals) won and I would have had Jacksonville this week. Oh well. F the Saints and whoever that rookie qb is. Have to say though, Saints were/are trending much better.
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I have to fully admit, there's no scenario in the Circa contest I would have survived the Thanksgiving slate of 4 games, treated as its own week by Circa. All 4 games were won by the underdog and it was the week that knocked out the last major chunk of entries.

I'll play again next year, not sure how many entries I'll be in for. Now that I know about the site to buy and sell shares of entries, I may look to monetize a few entries if I manage to get several weeks into the contest, at least come out ahead even if I get knocked out completely. I'm fascinated by the strategy, and the analytical nature of how you look at each week, what others are doing, separating yourself from the pack, taking more calculated risks early, et al.
 

This is what the remaining entries have left. I guess that professional poker player, Galen Hall (who I mentioned before) owns two of these entries; the Gary and Dylan entriess.

Interesting, it sounds like there was at least SOME collusion (which is perfectly within the rules) last week, some people getting together and working out a strategy, although the Survivor Sweat pod guys were unable to confirm; that's why there were 4 entries on the Vikings when most only thought there would be one.

Many of the remaining have already announced who they are taking: one is on Cincinnati, one on Jacksonville, one on Minnesota and I think one on either Atlanta or Tampa Bay, I forget. That COULD be those 3-4 people working together to cover multiple bases. One of Galen Hall's entries is the one that has New England left so he'll definitely be on them for one pick.

G9rXLM2W0AAgDf7.jpg
 

Not terribly unexpected, 5 different teams were picked by the 6 entries, with 2 on the Vikings. I heard this morning that 2 of the remaining entries are owned by women. Interesting.

G9yP4P4asAEZmgB.jpg
 




Needless to say, one of the folks on the Vikings...

Important secondary note there, that the person included a bet on the tie, because a tie DOES count as a loss for Survivor. I guess you have to do it, but in a meaningless game between 2 teams not going to the playoffs (and with Campbell such a gambler), I don't see any way this game ends in a tie. Late in the game, Campbell and KOC are going to be going for 2 after TDs to break a tie, etc. I doubt either coach even wants anything to do with Overtime.

 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Needless to say, one of the folks on the Vikings...

Important secondary note there, that the person included a bet on the tie, because a tie DOES count as a loss for Survivor. I guess you have to do it, but in a meaningless game between 2 teams not going to the playoffs (and with Campbell such a gambler), I don't see any way this game ends in a tie. Late in the game, Campbell and KOC are going to be going for 2 after TDs to break a tie, etc. I doubt either coach even wants anything to do with Overtime.

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however unlikely, i would not be super happy to lose out on millions and walk away with nothing if it somehow did end that way. very easy hedge there with the dollars on the line.
 

That poor bastard with Cincinnati, going down on a last second 49-yd FG to the Browns. $3M+ out the window.... I hope he was able to hedge like a MoFo. Looks like everyone else will Survive, with just the Patriots left (if the Falcons hang on against the Saints)
 

So one of the Vikings picks borrowed $710k to make hedge bets, and now has lost that money, but it's over right? This was the end, he will be one of the survivors and make at least $3.119M less the $710k he owes.

Wild ride
 

GopherGrit said:
So one of the Vikings picks borrowed $710k to make hedge bets, and now has lost that money, but it's over right? This was the end, he will be one of the survivors and make at least $3.119M less the $710k he owes.

Wild ride
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Person who picked Bengals is out. The other 5 are going to split the pot, so about $3.7 each. The guy that lost his hedge bet on Packers will still net around $ 3 million. Nice payday and don't think he'll miss the $700k.
 

TNGophfan said:
Person who picked Bengals is out. The other 5 are going to split the pot, so about $3.7 each. The guy that lost his hedge bet on Packers will still net around $ 3 million. Nice payday and don't think he'll miss the $700k.
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Pro poker player Galen Hall gets to the finish line with 2 of the 5 entries. Very, very nice payday for him, that's for sure.
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Pro poker player Galen Hall gets to the finish line with 2 of the 5 entries. Very, very nice payday for him, that's for sure.
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Pretty impressive, although if these two entries were under different User Names, it's likely he had at least 20 entries overall? You're allowed 10 entries, but you can get around that by establishing multiple User Names. Still not bad. A $20k investment if he did indeed have 20 entries

 

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