2025 NFL Circa Survivor Pool

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Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Guy is getting a terrible price on his money for this hedge though. I know you have to do something, but at what is now Cowboys -475, this guy is only going to win just shy of $250,000 on his $1,181,000 bet.

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It’s tough. You have to drum up enough capital to bet and you’re in awesome shape if commanders win. No one would want to be on his ticket with only those two teams left. But that’s a good guaranteed win to take home
 

Surprisingly, 9 lucky folks are moving on for Survivor. I didn't see that coming. If you were one of the folks on the Vikings today, you have made it this far by picking TWO pretty sizable underdogs, one on each of the holiday weekends.

Patriots are by far the biggest favorites this weekend, AT the Jets; looks like just 4 of the remaining 9 alive have the Patriots available. Hard to believe they won't all be on the Patriots.

Next two biggest favorites, the Rams and Seattle, nobody has available. Next two biggest favorites, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay, 7 of the 9 remaining (not the same teams), have either of these or both remaining.

At this point, you have to kind of look at who might be sitting a shitload of people in the next few weeks.
 

One of the guys I listen to said he has a crazy random parlay bet out there right now that's actually frighteningly close to hitting. It's still a longshot, but damn, it's still in play

Tyler Shough - Rookie of the Year
Ben Johnson - Coach of the Year
Myles Garrett - Defensive Player of the Year

$20 bet to win around $34,000
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
One of the guys I listen to said he has a crazy random parlay bet out there right now that's actually frighteningly close to hitting. It's still a longshot, but damn, it's still in play

Tyler Shough - Rookie of the Year
Ben Johnson - Coach of the Year
Myles Garrett - Defensive Player of the Year

$20 bet to win around $34,000
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It’s unfortunate. Shough would’ve had a real shot had he started out the gate. His numbers just won’t be high enough compared to Tet which makes it dead. Johnson wont win either
 

Woof. I have to seriously question taking Tampa Bay on the road against Miami. Pretty ballsy taking the Giants on the road in Vegas, but it looks like it may work out for them.

G9OMhrJbgAAj_Me.jpg
 



TNGophfan said:
1 week left. 6 entries. $3M implied value each. Sure they're hedging like crazy and/or selling shares. Wonder who they have left.
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The 3 highest percent chance to win next week, Rams, Buffalo, Jacksonville; nobody remaining has them available. It looks like New England is the next best pick, and I think one person has them remaining. I think a few have Philly and Cincy, who would be some of the next highest win percentage picks. Denver is in there but nobody has them

Considering the Patriots are fighting for the #1 overall seed, I'd say the one guy that has them available is looking solid
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
The 3 highest percent chance to win next week, Rams, Buffalo, Jacksonville; nobody remaining has them available. It looks like New England is the next best pick, and I think one person has them remaining. I think a few have Philly and Cincy, who would be some of the next highest win percentage picks. Denver is in there but nobody has them

Considering the Patriots are fighting for the #1 overall seed, I'd say the one guy that has them available is looking solid
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If if and buts we're candy and nuts.... my week 14 upset by Saints over Bucs killed me. My next 3 picks (Niners, Texans and Bengals) won and I would have had Jacksonville this week. Oh well. F the Saints and whoever that rookie qb is. Have to say though, Saints were/are trending much better.
 

I'd imagine some will look at the Vikings given the Packers will likely sit all their starters.
Texans seem like a solid option and will play to win regardless due to seeding.
I'd be going Pats though if I had them as Quinn Ewers will be making his second start ever and the Pats have everything to play for, are at home, and they're just significantly better than the Dolphins
 



TNGophfan said:
If if and buts we're candy and nuts.... my week 14 upset by Saints over Bucs killed me. My next 3 picks (Niners, Texans and Bengals) won and I would have had Jacksonville this week. Oh well. F the Saints and whoever that rookie qb is. Have to say though, Saints were/are trending much better.
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I have to fully admit, there's no scenario in the Circa contest I would have survived the Thanksgiving slate of 4 games, treated as its own week by Circa. All 4 games were won by the underdog and it was the week that knocked out the last major chunk of entries.

I'll play again next year, not sure how many entries I'll be in for. Now that I know about the site to buy and sell shares of entries, I may look to monetize a few entries if I manage to get several weeks into the contest, at least come out ahead even if I get knocked out completely. I'm fascinated by the strategy, and the analytical nature of how you look at each week, what others are doing, separating yourself from the pack, taking more calculated risks early, et al.
 

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