2025 NFL Circa Survivor Pool

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I had forgotten about the Circa Grandissimo Survivor contest and the weekend's implications there. Holy shit, devastation.

Grandissimo had 69 original entries, $100,000 per entry for a total pool of $6.9M. This was this weekend's board; OUCH...

One bold sonofabitch picked the Vikings and is loving life right now. 15 knocked out with the Rams on Thursday night, 20 knocked out with the Cardinals on that series of bonehead plays, and another 4 knocked out with the Bills last night. Imagine dumping upwards of $200,000 losing an entry because of what Demercado did crossing the goal line....

16 entries left, implied value of $431,250 for each entry.

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Slim Tubby said:
The HC getting fined for doing what every other player on the team wanted to do is a choice.
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The Cardinals are in such a tough spot, it's frustrating to watch. Up until this season, I was very sure that the Cardinals, under Gannon (and Rallis), were a pretty well-coached team that just didn't have enough talent. They've been amassing some really good young talent in the last couple of drafts, have drafted pretty well, moving in the right direction. The roster has really good potential.

But damn, Kyler Murray is just such a different cat. He's good enough to win some games, good enough to make highlight reel plays, but not a natural leader and not good enough to carry a team. The GM I've been listening to a little bit lately categorizes QBs two different ways; a "win with guy" and a "win because guy". The Cardinals win with Murray, they don't win because of Murray.

It was minor, but Gannon took a small black eye with this move. I hope he lasts long enough in the desert to find another QB and see all of this young talent develop into a great roster. It might be tough though. They have to draft a QB next spring, and probably not in the 6th round; much earlier.
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
The Cardinals are in such a tough spot, it's frustrating to watch. Up until this season, I was very sure that the Cardinals, under Gannon (and Rallis), were a pretty well-coached team that just didn't have enough talent. They've been amassing some really good young talent in the last couple of drafts, have drafted pretty well, moving in the right direction. The roster has really good potential.

But damn, Kyler Murray is just such a different cat. He's good enough to win some games, good enough to make highlight reel plays, but not a natural leader and not good enough to carry a team. The GM I've been listening to a little bit lately categorizes QBs two different ways; a "win with guy" and a "win because guy". The Cardinals win with Murray, they don't win because of Murray.

It was minor, but Gannon took a small black eye with this move. I hope he lasts long enough in the desert to find another QB and see all of this young talent develop into a great roster. It might be tough though. They have to draft a QB next spring, and probably not in the 6th round; much earlier.
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Murray is type of QB that a team can trade away and not lose any sleep over it, yet, still be coveted by other QB deprived teams.

Not that they will move him but could ARI expect a better return for Murray than a 3-4 Round Pick at this point? He's still relatively young for his position.
 


Slim Tubby said:
Murray is type of QB that a team can trade away and not lose any sleep over it, yet, still be coveted by other QB deprived teams.

Not that they will move him but could ARI expect a better return for Murray than a 3-4 Round Pick at this point? He's still relatively young for his position.
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Like anything else, it's about the money and the money he is owed. How much salary would Arizona have to eat. Remember he signed that huge deal a few years ago. I'd have to check but I'm guessing that at least after THIS season, they have taken a pretty good chunk of that Cap hit. Not out of the woods yet, but a lot better than they would have been if they tried to move on last spring.

A quick internet search:
"Kyler Murray's 2026 dead cap depends on the timing of any potential release or trade before June 1st or after June 1st. A pre-June 1st release or trade would result in a $34,918,177 dead cap hit for 2026, while a post-June 1st release or trade would be a $27,718,177 dead cap hit, with the rest of the dead money accelerating to the 2027 season

It looks like they can get out of the deal before the 2027 season without much pain at all. I would be surprised if he's the QB in 2027. I hope this regime of Gannon and GM Monti Ossenfort (native of Luverne, MN!) survive what's going on in PHX these next two seasons to enjoy the benefits. I really do think they have assembled a lot of young talent
 

Slim Tubby said:
Murray is type of QB that a team can trade away and not lose any sleep over it, yet, still be coveted by other QB deprived teams.

Not that they will move him but could ARI expect a better return for Murray than a 3-4 Round Pick at this point? He's still relatively young for his position.
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Quick follow up; at the time they drafted Murray, they had just traded up to draft Josh Rosen at QB the season before at #10 overall. Rosen wasn't great that season but I remember hoping, praying (as a Cards ST holder) that they would just give him another season and instead use that #1 overall pick on EDGE Nick Bosa. Then, if Rosen doesn't work out, you at least still have an elite pass rusher and you can get a QB a year later. So much for that.

Rosen's issues went beyond the field; turns out he was an incredibly unpopular guy in the locker room. Entitled southern CA prick, did not endear himself to his teammates and his time in the NFL was short-lived.

One last funny anecdote, my vaunted jersey curse fully reinforced. I ended up dropping $300 on an authentic Josh Rosen jersey late that season. I'm in the bathroom at State Farm for one of the last games that season taking a piss; guy comes in and sees the jersey and says "You're going all-in early, eh?" Just classic... no more player jerseys for me, ever again. I don't know which was worse, the Rosen jersey or a few decades ago buying an authentic Vikings Erasmus James jersey the year he was drafted?
 

Green Bay will most definitely be a huge pick this week; I've seen projections where as many as 40-50% of entries could pick the Packers. The Rams against a beat up Ravens team is projected to be the 2nd most picked team, followed by Colts, Raiders, Steelers.

For Circa, the numbers won't come out until tonight but it appears as many as 8-10% of entries could have gone down with Philly losing to the Giants on TNF. I don't get the notion of picking Philly, I want them for later this year, but ADIOS to all of those folks!
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Green Bay will most definitely be a huge pick this week; I've seen projections where as many as 40-50% of entries could pick the Packers. The Rams against a beat up Ravens team is projected to be the 2nd most picked team, followed by Colts, Raiders, Steelers.

For Circa, the numbers won't come out until tonight but it appears as many as 8-10% of entries could have gone down with Philly losing to the Giants on TNF. I don't get the notion of picking Philly, I want them for later this year, but ADIOS to all of those folks!
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The Philly pick at least made some sense but went against your golden rule of avoiding Divisional matchups, especially the road teams.

GB seems like the safest pick this week by a very large margin. Good luck...I'm living vicariously through you the rest of the way!
 



Slim Tubby said:
The Philly pick at least made some sense but went against your golden rule of avoiding Divisional matchups, especially the road teams.

GB seems like the safest pick this week by a very large margin. Good luck...I'm living vicariously through you the rest of the way!
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Full disclosure, as much as I'd love to say that I'm killing it and doing great, I got absolutely destroyed last week. I entered last week with 4 entries alive and went down with Arizona, the Rams, and Buffalo. I have one remaining entry in Circa Survivor. Ugghhh...

But alive is alive, with just under 25% of the original entries still alive. 4,646 to start this NFL Week and as I said, a good number will have gone down with Philly.

If I had more than one entry left, I would pick the Raiders with one of them tomorrow but I can't put my only life remaining in the hands of Geno. Too good of a spot with the Steelers; Steelers off a bye week, at home, playing a bad Cleveland team with a rookie QB coming back from London with no week off. About the biggest "rest advantage" you could imagine. One of the guys I listen to often rattles off some ridiculous numbers when it comes to rest advantage
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Full disclosure, as much as I'd love to say that I'm killing it and doing great, I got absolutely destroyed last week. I entered last week with 4 entries alive and went down with Arizona, the Rams, and Buffalo. I have one remaining entry in Circa Survivor. Ugghhh...

But alive is alive, with just under 25% of the original entries still alive. 4,646 to start this NFL Week and as I said, a good number will have gone down with Philly.

If I had more than one entry left, I would pick the Raiders with one of them tomorrow but I can't put my only life remaining in the hands of Geno. Too good of a spot with the Steelers; Steelers off a bye week, at home, playing a bad Cleveland team with a rookie QB coming back from London with no week off. About the biggest "rest advantage" you could imagine. One of the guys I listen to often rattles off some ridiculous numbers when it comes to rest advantage
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Shaffer off the bench for the W🤣
 

Wow. I certainly didn't expect some of these numbers. Steelers the second most picked team after a whopping 54.4% picked Green Bay. And 3rd was the Raiders? The thing I'm pretty surprised about, and disappointed with, is that "only" 89 people picked the Eagles on Thursday night. I saw projects with over 400 of the remaining 4,646.

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Good weekend for the favorites as there was no real blood in most Survivor pools this weekend. Chicago upsetting the Commanders tonight would be the last chance for a little wreckage.

Next weekend is going to be a challenging week. KC will be the heaviest favorite, at home against the lowly Raiders, followed up by a couple of teams playing road games; Patriots at the Titans, Packers at the Cardinals, and perhaps Denver at home against the Jets.

Folks in the Survivor leagues that treat the Thanksgiving slate of games as a separate week may want to keep KC and Green Bay for later this year, and of course a shitload of people already used Green Bay yesterday.
 



Interesting week coming up in Survivor. A lot of the top teams with the highest win probability could have already been taken in previous weeks, or people will want to save them for the later holiday weeks (like Kansas City and/or Detroit, or even maybe Green Bay I guess).

I think the most picked team will be New England, playing at Tennessee. Chiefs at home against the Raiders is akin to the Packers last week; they should win easy, but do you want to burn a high Future Value team on KC?

I'm leaning pretty hard towards Chicago, at home against the Saints. Saints haven't been BAD, but as many of us older Metrodome Vikings fans know, dome teams sure don't like playing outdoors, and the Bears may be playing with some confidence. I like the Patriots a LITTLE better, but there are one or two Weeks coming up where I would love to have the Patriots; next week against Cleveland, and Week 11 against the Jets most notably. I think the Bears take care of business against the Saints

Final Note: Damn, I really, really, really, really want to pick Cleveland, playing at home against Miami. I think Miami is ass bad, some may have already quit on the Head Coach, and Tua sucks playing up north. I'd feel better if this game were 5-6 weeks from now though. If I had more than one entry remaining, I would definitely take Cleveland with one but I just don't know if I can risk my Survivor life on the Browns. I know there will be some people with multiple entries taking the Browns though.
 

In 1 of my pools, they started with 419 entries and I'm one of 103 left. I like the Bears and maybe Broncos this week. KC for sure, of course, but dont want to burn them yet either.
 

pats, panthers, broncos all look like good picks to me.
 

Gotta believe the Steelers going down tonight burned a bunch of entries in some pools. The projection I saw, estimate, for the Circa pool was around 13% taking the Steelers. I sure hope it was that many or more.

TNGophfan said:
In 1 of my pools, they started with 419 entries and I'm one of 103 left. I like the Bears and maybe Broncos this week. KC for sure, of course, but dont want to burn them yet either.
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The Circa pool is right at about the same percentage eliminated as well; around 25% left of the original pool. Still really want to take Cleveland, but I just don't know if I have the balls to do that. Supposed to be bad weather in Cleveland as well, which will make it even tougher for Tua and Miami.
 

Well, the "expert" Survivor folks say you have to zig when everyone else zags and separate yourself from the pack. I rolled the dice this week and bet my Survivor life on the Browns. Yes, I just said that. Not sure if I'm surprised the number for them was 146 or not? Oh well. Go Browns!!


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Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Well, the "expert" Survivor folks say you have to zig when everyone else zags and separate yourself from the pack. I rolled the dice this week and bet my Survivor life on the Browns. Yes, I just said that. Not sure if I'm surprised the number for them was 146 or not? Oh well. Go Browns!!


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If the weather for MIA-CLE is even close to what's been forecasted, there might not be a total of 20 points scored in that game. I fear your margin of error is quite small, especially with a rookie QB.

I picked CLE in my Pick Em so that should also give you some pause.
 

Slim Tubby said:
If the weather for MIA-CLE is even close to what's been forecasted, there might not be a total of 20 points scored in that game. I fear your margin of error is quite small, especially with a rookie QB.

I picked CLE in my Pick Em so that should also give you some pause.
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Browns win, I live to see another week. Most all the favorites won so most others will be moving on, but I move on with some more good teams available. Still would be helped if the Giants beat the Broncos and/or the Cardinals beat the Packers (obviously the Packers losing is always a great thing)
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Browns win, I live to see another week. Most all the favorites won so most others will be moving on, but I move on with some more good teams available. Still would be helped if the Giants beat the Broncos and/or the Cardinals beat the Packers (obviously the Packers losing is always a great thing)
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Jacoby and Jaxon may do just that for you
 


upnorthkid said:
Woof for bad beat
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I was driving around hunting, listening to the afternoon games, and i'd turned the Giants-Broncos game off because there was no way the Giants were losing. What in the actual f*ck....
 

Wow. I had Broncos in 1 of my 2 pools (Bears in other). How in the hell they won that is beyond comprehension. 33 points in 4th quarter. Giants fail on 3 extra points in game (2 kicks and a try for 2). Unbelievable. Has to be a long flight back to NYC.
 

TNGophfan said:
Wow. I had Broncos in 1 of my 2 pools (Bears in other). How in the hell they won that is beyond comprehension. 33 points in 4th quarter. Giants fail on 3 extra points in game (2 kicks and a try for 2). Unbelievable. Has to be a long flight back to NYC.
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The first XP they went for 2 instead of kicking was coaching malpractice. Up 19-0, yes, 2 pts gets you to an even 21-pt lead, but staying at 19 means two TDs with 2-pt conversions and a FG ties the game. Dumb f*ck. You take all the points you can get. So disappointed to not see a boatload of people bounced from Survivor.
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
The first XP they went for 2 instead of kicking was coaching malpractice. Up 19-0, yes, 2 pts gets you to an even 21-pt lead, but staying at 19 means two TDs with 2-pt conversions and a FG ties the game. Dumb f*ck. You take all the points you can get. So disappointed to not see a boatload of people bounced from Survivor.
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I hate when teams go for 2 early. If they don't make it, they seem to be always chasing that point.
 

Interesting week coming up in Survivor. I think I saw that there are 9 teams favored by at least 5.5 points so a ton of options. The Colts are the biggest favorite against the woeful Titans (but a division game on the road), and a lot of people have already used the Colts. I have them available. Almost seems like a no-brainer, there's not a lot of obvious places to use them the rest of the way, but I'm not sure.

I am looking pretty hard at the Bengals, at home against the shitty NY Jets. They'll have the big rest advantage having played last Thursday night, and the Jets are just dogshit. Bengals are right in the mix in the AFC North and could/should be playing with renewed enthusiasm. Flacco will have another 10 days in the building in Cincy, with the Bengals coaches and offense, receivers, etc.

The rest of the big favorites are teams I want to have available later; Ravens, Patriots, Bucs, Chiefs, Bills, Eagles.
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Interesting week coming up in Survivor. I think I saw that there are 9 teams favored by at least 5.5 points so a ton of options. The Colts are the biggest favorite against the woeful Titans (but a division game on the road), and a lot of people have already used the Colts. I have them available. Almost seems like a no-brainer, there's not a lot of obvious places to use them the rest of the way, but I'm not sure.

I am looking pretty hard at the Bengals, at home against the shitty NY Jets. They'll have the big rest advantage having played last Thursday night, and the Jets are just dogshit. Bengals are right in the mix in the AFC North and could/should be playing with renewed enthusiasm. Flacco will have another 10 days in the building in Cincy, with the Bengals coaches and offense, receivers, etc.

The rest of the big favorites are teams I want to have available later; Ravens, Patriots, Bucs, Chiefs, Bills, Eagles.
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Colts are at home this week. Part of why the spread is so big. Ravens spread surprises me with Lamar still not practicing. Wouldn’t touch the chiefs either until Daniels status more apparent
 

upnorthkid said:
Colts are at home this week. Part of why the spread is so big. Ravens spread surprises me with Lamar still not practicing. Wouldn’t touch the chiefs either until Daniels status more apparent
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That is correct! My bad, Colts are at home. A few days ago, the Colts were penciled in, but like I said, I'm thinking about the Bengals. The "experts" say that there's no great place to use the Colts the rest of the way, and you'll hear them say that about other higher end teams, and I get that. But at the risk of disagreeing with the "experts", I kinda want as many good teams at my disposal late in the season, regardless of the opponent. You never know what's coming in regards to injuries.

Wow. The new projections/estimates have been posted and they are saying 32% Colts, 20% Atlanta, and 16% Cincinnati. Damn. So much for being remotely a "contrarian pick" by taking Cincinnati. My pool only 39% have the Colts remaining so 32% taking them would leave very few with them available the rest of the way.

I probably won't make up my mind until later Friday
 

The picks have been released for the Circa contest. Big number on the Colts, over 34% and only 39% had them available. Not hard to figure out.

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