2025 NFL Circa Survivor Pool

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Not surprising to see over 95% of the field take one of these 3 top teams but DAMN, almost 65% on one team...

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rams were an easy choice this week agreed.

denver on short week is interesting for next week at home vs the raiders. probably have some people winging it on the panthers vs NO as their sneaky pick.
 

TNGophfan said:
Great time to take them. Won't be close to as heavy a favorite rest of year.
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That's what I was thinking, as was everyone else. I was looking for any reason to take the Chargers instead, but their value in a few weeks against the lowly Raiders dismissed that. I was really hoping more had taken the Packers but still, another good chunk eliminated.
upnorthkid said:
rams were an easy choice this week agreed.

denver on short week is interesting for next week at home vs the raiders. probably have some people winging it on the panthers vs NO as their sneaky pick.
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I already used Denver so that's out. I had pegged this next week, Week 10, as the most challenging week for over a month now. Yes, I'm leaning towards using Carolina. From remembering the Metrodome Vikings, I typically fade dome teams playing outside (Saints) and the two teams are trending in opposite directions. Carolina has been largely pretty good at home, the Saints have been destroyed on the road. Not a done deal yet.

Seattle at home against the Cardinals would be in play if the Cardinals throw up all over themselves on MNF tonight, but the Cards have played Seattle tough up there for a while now

EDIT: One other thing I was crossing my fingers for with regards to Saints-Panthers; rumors floating around about the Saints in SELL mode; moving someone like Olave and/or Kamara would sure make me feel better about taking the Panthers
 


Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
That's what I was thinking, as was everyone else. I was looking for any reason to take the Chargers instead, but their value in a few weeks against the lowly Raiders dismissed that. I was really hoping more had taken the Packers but still, another good chunk eliminated.


I already used Denver so that's out. I had pegged this next week, Week 10, as the most challenging week for over a month now. Yes, I'm leaning towards using Carolina. From remembering the Metrodome Vikings, I typically fade dome teams playing outside (Saints) and the two teams are trending in opposite directions. Carolina has been largely pretty good at home, the Saints have been destroyed on the road. Not a done deal yet.

Seattle at home against the Cardinals would be in play if the Cardinals throw up all over themselves on MNF tonight, but the Cards have played Seattle tough up there for a while now

EDIT: One other thing I was crossing my fingers for with regards to Saints-Panthers; rumors floating around about the Saints in SELL mode; moving someone like Olave and/or Kamara would sure make me feel better about taking the Panthers
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given where the Saints are at, wouldn't surprise me if Olave and Kamara are on snap counts even if they play as they're some of their only assets they could move. Sea/Ari scares me too much as the teams always seem to play tight ones as you mention. congrats on getting this far!
 

upnorthkid said:
rams were an easy choice this week agreed.

denver on short week is interesting for next week at home vs the raiders. probably have some people winging it on the panthers vs NO as their sneaky pick.
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So much for the Panthers (vs the Saints) being a "sneaky pick" as you mentioned (the Survivor term is a "contrarian pick")....

Early projections (at least for Circa Survivor) are showing 25% Denver (home against the Raiders), 24% Carolina (home against the Saints), and 20% Buffalo (at Miami), and 19% Seattle (at home against the Cardinals).

The Bears, at home against the NY Giants, is a possibility as well (9% estimated to pick). Not sure I trust the Bears defense though. Up until the Giants started playing better with Dart, I had Chicago pegged for this week. Now? Not so sure. For me it's Carolina or Chicago.

1,769 remaining in Circa, from an original 18,700 or so.
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
So much for the Panthers (vs the Saints) being a "sneaky pick" as you mentioned (the Survivor term is a "contrarian pick")....

Early projections (at least for Circa Survivor) are showing 25% Denver (home against the Raiders), 24% Carolina (home against the Saints), and 20% Buffalo (at Miami), and 19% Seattle (at home against the Cardinals).

The Bears, at home against the NY Giants, is a possibility as well (9% estimated to pick). Not sure I trust the Bears defense though. Up until the Giants started playing better with Dart, I had Chicago pegged for this week. Now? Not so sure. For me it's Carolina or Chicago.

1,769 remaining in Circa, from an original 18,700 or so.
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think the giants without skat and blowing that Broncos game really killed their "vibe". the raiders should get drilled in Denver, but that one i'm sure is limited from people taking them earlier. that number on Carolina doesn't surprise me as it's one no one will have taken (or even considered taking) early in the year and now it looks good. Trusting young is worrisome, but i don't see the Saints caring at all now that they were sellers and the ground game has been rolling for the panthers (plus the saints suck).
The browns would be an interesting sleeper as well against a defense that traded their best 2 players and an offense that is ass. but any time both teams are basically eliminated, hard to know who shows up
best of luck man. fun to still be in it as things get tougher and tougher
 

upnorthkid said:
think the giants without skat and blowing that Broncos game really killed their "vibe". the raiders should get drilled in Denver, but that one i'm sure is limited from people taking them earlier. that number on Carolina doesn't surprise me as it's one no one will have taken (or even considered taking) early in the year and now it looks good. Trusting young is worrisome, but i don't see the Saints caring at all now that they were sellers and the ground game has been rolling for the panthers (plus the saints suck).
The browns would be an interesting sleeper as well against a defense that traded their best 2 players and an offense that is ass. but any time both teams are basically eliminated, hard to know who shows up
best of luck man. fun to still be in it as things get tougher and tougher
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I like the home/road splits for both the Panthers and Saints in this matchup; the Panthers have been much better at home and as bad as the Saints have been, they've been worse on the road. And I always like fading dome teams playing outside. Being a division game is a minor concern, but I'll roll with it.

Denver and Cleveland, used them both already
 



Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
I like the home/road splits for both the Panthers and Saints in this matchup; the Panthers have been much better at home and as bad as the Saints have been, they've been worse on the road. And I always like fading dome teams playing outside. Being a division game is a minor concern, but I'll roll with it.

Denver and Cleveland, used them both already
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seems to make sense to me. best of luck. Feel like all these long term ones give me hella anxiety as it all ends up being for naught even if you do something that would be very unlikely if you parlayed it all together just to get here (would be a fun random thing if you could pull all the lines to this point to parse it out; unsure who all you've bet on along the way)
 

upnorthkid said:
rams were an easy choice this week agreed.

denver on short week is interesting for next week at home vs the raiders. probably have some people winging it on the panthers vs NO as their sneaky pick.
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Damn. So much for the Panthers being the contrarian pick this week. I'm not totally surprised it's almost 28%, but a little surprised it's the most picked.

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Slim Tubby said:
Did you end up going with CAR this week?
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I did. For me it was Carolina or Chicago, and I just couldn't stomach taking Chicago. I don't trust Caleb Williams and I can see Jaxson Dart coming into Chicago and puling out a game against a shitty Bears defense.
 




Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Damn. So much for the Panthers being the contrarian pick this week. I'm not totally surprised it's almost 28%, but a little surprised it's the most picked.

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Panthers, Bills and Bears all toast. Slaughter week
Edit nvm did not see Wilson was in for the giants and that they could easily blow this because Russ is Russ
 
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upnorthkid said:
Panthers, Bills and Bears all toast. Slaughter week
Edit nvm did not see Wilson was in for the giants and that they could easily blow this because Russ is Russ
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Well, f*ck.... That moment you go out of Survivor is always just a massive kick in the balls, knowing that it's really over. And to top things off, the Bears came back to take the lead against the Giants from down 10. Maybe the Giants can make some magic in the final 2 mins
 

Ogie Ogilthorpe said:
Well, f*ck.... That moment you go out of Survivor is always just a massive kick in the balls, knowing that it's really over. And to top things off, the Bears came back to take the lead against the Giants from down 10. Maybe the Giants can make some magic in the final 2 mins
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Russ goes 1/5 for 0 yards and an 11 yard scramble. Could understand it with a rookie but you expect more with a vet
 

upnorthkid said:
Russ goes 1/5 for 0 yards and an 11 yard scramble. Could understand it with a rookie but you expect more with a vet
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It would have at least been some consolation if the Giants hung on to beat the Bears but alas, no dice. Just one big shitburger day all the way around, topped off by the Vikings throwing up all over themselves
 

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