2025 Bowl Projection Tracker

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Texan Gopher said:
Detroit, here we come. We will not win another game this year. We look so much slower and pussier than every team we are playing that is at least decent. The top half of the Mac could be this this year. We are lucky we played some terrible Big ten teens. The Nebraska win is going to be the Pinnacle of this year.
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Save this freakout for the game thread. Lord
 




Updated percentages based on results of 11am games.

PlayoffCitrusReliaquestVegasMusic CityPinstripeRateSportsLeft Out
Michigan15.91%
67.37%​
15.48%1.24%0.00%
Iowa25.24%40.13%24.38%10.19%0.06%
Minnesota2.66%0.00%0.32%42.23%0.00%39.05%14.64%1.10%
Illinois64.44%23.87%0.34%11.35%0.00%0.00%
Nebraska29.97%10.17%19.02%23.24%0.00%17.60%0.00%
Northwestern0.15%1.17%28.29%28.32%20.83%21.24%
Rutgers4.08%0.00%0.00%16.62%
Maryland0.00%0.00%0.84%2.41%6.14%
Penn State0.59%35.95%7.73%11.47%
None0.00%0.00%3.76%33.56%
 


Well after the afternoon games, Maryland is officially eliminated. No team will be left out of bowls now.

For those wondering how any scenario could have Minnesota going to Citrus, the following would have to occur:
Minnesota beats Wisconsin
Michigan beats Ohio State and goes to playoff
Penn State beats Nebraska
Iowa beats Nebraska
Illinois beats Northwestern

In that unlikely event I believe Illinois/Iowa will split the Reliaquest/Vegas destinations and MN might get the nod over Nebraska and Northwestern. Could be wrong. Only 3.25% chance we find out anyway.

PlayoffCitrusReliaquestVegasMusic CityPinstripeRateSportsLeft Out
Michigan19.40%
70.63%​
0.00%9.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Iowa0.00%27.65%41.13%0.00%26.34%4.87%0.00%
Minnesota3.25%0.00%0.00%41.82%0.00%42.18%12.75%
Illinois0.00%61.73%26.17%0.34%11.76%0.00%0.00%
Nebraska26.12%10.62%21.43%24.64%0.00%17.19%0.00%
Northwestern0.00%0.00%1.30%28.44%29.35%21.66%19.26%
Rutgers0.00%0.00%0.00%4.77%0.00%0.00%15.83%
Maryland0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Penn State0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%32.54%9.51%13.69%
None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.59%38.47%
 

After the night games here are the percentages. This will likely get readjusted tomorrow as the FPI continues to update. For instance, I'm guessing that Gophers will no longer have a 53.5% chance of beating Badgers. But for now...here are the numbers.

PlayoffCitrusReliaquestVegasMusic CityPinstripeRateSports
Michigan80.60%
​
0.00%​
0.00%​
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Iowa0.00%60.42%14.10%0.00%25.49%0.00%0.00%
Minnesota4.63%0.00%0.00%47.69%0.00%29.04%18.65%
Illinois0.00%6.13%70.07%1.70%22.10%0.00%0.00%
Nebraska14.77%33.45%11.22%20.38%0.00%20.18%0.00%
Northwestern0.00%0.00%4.62%23.79%10.45%30.29%30.86%
Rutgers0.00%0.00%0.00%6.44%0.00%0.00%14.16%
Maryland0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Penn State0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%41.97%20.49%16.94%
None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
19.40%​
 
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12 teams will be eligible for a bowl from the B1G. Winner of Rutgers and PSU becomes the 12th

3 to playoff and 9 to bowls.
 

 
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If Illinois hangs on I'm guessing
Citrus: Michigan
Reliaquest: Iowa
Vegas: Illinois
Music: Minnesota
Pinstripe: Penn State
Rate: Nebraska
Sports: Northwestern
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
If Illinois hangs on I'm guessing
Citrus: Michigan
Reliaquest: Iowa
Vegas: Illinois
Music: Minnesota
Pinstripe: Penn State
Rate: Nebraska
Sports: Northwestern
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I’m not smart, but hard for me to believe something better than Rate takes Huskers based on 1980s history. Only thing that matters now is perceived marketing opportunities.
 



Holy Man said:
I’m not smart, but hard for me to believe something better than Rate takes Huskers based on 1980s history. Only thing that matters now is perceived marketing opportunities.
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I'm wrong quite a bit but Nebraska got absolutely blasted by MN and PSU and is on their backup QB. Gophers were in Phoenix a few years ago and conference is vested in getting new destinations.
 







MNVCGUY said:
Going to a bowl is better then staying home for the holidays. 15 practices for the young guys and a chance for fans to see the team play one more game.
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Definitely. I love bowl season and having another game (regardless of opponent) is a good thing to look forward to.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Going to a bowl is better then staying home for the holidays. 15 practices for the young guys and a chance for fans to see the team play one more game.
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I agree a bowl is way better than staying home. I do think the amount of ire that gets raised over going to the Rate, Music City, Vegas, Pinstripe, and Mayo type bowls is way overblown. In the end they are mid tier at best games that are basically all the same. Outside of a couple hundred hardcore fans the Music City Bowl vs the Pinstripe bowl or Rate Bowl is of little to no cnosequence. The team gets basically the same benefit no matter what bowl they go to.

Although I will admit I would guess everyone thinks the Detroit Bowl is shit.
 
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DarrenTheGreek said:
If Illinois hangs on I'm guessing
Citrus: Michigan
Reliaquest: Iowa
Vegas: Illinois
Music: Minnesota
Pinstripe: Penn State
Rate: Nebraska
Sports: Northwestern
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I wish you were right ... but I think there's next to no chance that the Music City chooses the Gophers over Nebraska, if they are given that choice :(

I don't think record matters, at all, and the conference will just group all teams from Washington to Nebraska together. (Caveat to that is that USC and Washington will fill the two "PAC-12" bowls that are carry-overs, which I believe you're already showing here.)

I do think there is non-zero chance of Vegas, over Illinois. Neither program has a reputation of traveling well.

That said, if we can't get either of those, it's the Rate, guaranteed (EDIT: see what I did there??). We want that bowl, we want to be in Arizona where our alumni are. Warm weather. All day


NW will get the Detroit bowl, at 6-6, and that is fair. They're just lucky to get in a bowl at all.
 
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Holy Man said:
I’m not smart, but hard for me to believe something better than Rate takes Huskers based on 1980s history. Only thing that matters now is perceived marketing opportunities.
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The Bowl Games and their host cities make money on the size of the traveling fan base. They don't make money on TV ratings. And it's still the Bowl Games who get to pick which teams come to play the games. TV gets their ratings pretty much any way. People turn it on to have something on TV, because it's college football, and because it's bowl season. I don't think they care as much about who is playing.
 

What would have been interesting and helpful is if Michigan had beaten Ohio State and gotten a fourth Big Ten team in the playoff. Alas, not to be.

I don't think Illinois and/or Iowa losing would have mattered. If ILL wins and Iowa loses, then perhaps those two swap bowl games, but both would still be "ahead" of Gophers.
 


Seems like we should be in line for Music City - we're the clear 4th other than PAC 12 and playoff teams. Of course we've gotten skipped over by teams worse than us or teams we beat head to head before.
 



OK, maybe swap Neb and Illinois for Vegas/Music City ... but I'll be shocked if Gophers beat out either of those.

Those two bowls are a step above the Rate.

I've been shocked before.
 

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