2020-2021 Lineup Breakdown

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At the risk of being a buzz kill ----

All of this is based on an assumption that the undergrad transfers will be eligible.

Maybe you trust the NCAA to "do the right thing" or make a logical decision. I don't. I always expect the NCAA to do the wrong thing and make an illogical decision.

Until the NCAA changes the rule, I think you have to prepare for the season as if the undergrad transfers will NOT be eligible. If they are eligible, great. But, if they're not, you had better have a plan, because you will be looking at a very different roster.

Remember all the people who thought Carr was going to get a waiver (including the Head Coach, as I recall)? how did that wind up?
 

Block M said:
Williams will get significantly more than 9 minutes per game. Mashburn probably fewer minutes. Peterson probably fewer minutes.
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I just don't know where those minutes come from. I guess i am just more optimistic on the newcomers. Williams didn't really blow me away last year, dont think he really hurt the team just forgot he was on the court at times. He plays with confidence and has some swagger just didnt have the ball in his hands much, maybe he takes a bigger jump than Inhen and starts at the 3 than i could see 20+ minutes. To me i see more potential from Mashburn and Peterson to provide something more dynamic, at least offensively (based off of very limited tapes).
 

short ornery norwegian said:
At the risk of being a buzz kill ----

All of this is based on an assumption that the undergrad transfers will be eligible.

Maybe you trust the NCAA to "do the right thing" or make a logical decision. I don't. I always expect the NCAA to do the wrong thing and make an illogical decision.

Until the NCAA changes the rule, I think you have to prepare for the season as if the undergrad transfers will NOT be eligible. If they are eligible, great. But, if they're not, you had better have a plan, because you will be looking at a very different roster.

Remember all the people who thought Carr was going to get a waiver (including the Head Coach, as I recall)? how did that wind up?
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Agreed and who knows, but most signs i have seen are that this will go through or maybe this year they will be more lenient on the transfers because of Covid-19. This team would obviously look extremely different if Robbins and to a lesser degree if Peterson cant play, and would be in serious trouble. If the time comes when those 2 or 1 of the 2 are ineligible Ill adjust my breakdown accordingly. Until then ill continue being an eternal optimist and try to enjoy what looks like a solid roster. Gotta imagine Pitino is confident they will be able to play, basically coaching for his job.
 

I think the real question is who will start at the "3" position. Will it be Peterson, ihnen, or Williams? I could see any of these guys starting.
 



Keyser Söze said:
Could also go smaller and play Gabe and Mashburn together. That's my prediction.
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I like it. I just feel though you need Carr to get a break at point so you have mashburn on bench to sub in for gabe and carr. If mashburn is a "diaper dandy" no doubt he will be starting. I just dont know yet how really good he is. Everything I am hearing I take with a grain of salt.
 

JoshuaT81 said:
I like it. I just feel though you need Carr to get a break at point so you have mashburn on bench to sub in for gabe and carr. If mashburn is a "diaper dandy" no doubt he will be starting. I just dont know yet how really good he is. Everything I am hearing I take with a grain of salt.
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You can go that route too, but if they both start and Carr needs a break, you can just shift Mashburn over to PG. You can still make sure that at least 1 of them is on the floor at all times.
 

Keyser Söze said:
You can go that route too, but if they both start and Carr needs a break, you can just shift Mashburn over to PG. You can still make sure that at least 1 of them is on the floor at all times.
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Yup, was also thinking that. I hate say this because it is based on players making big steps and other players I have not seen in a gopher uniform but the depth this next year is crazy. Yes I understand the humongous run on sentence, sorry.
 

manderson1984 said:
They didn't attack him specifically, we had him guarding their best post guy a ton of the time because we wanted to not get Oturu in foul trouble. Of course guys like Garza (2nd in the player of the year standings) tore him up. Again I'm saying he was very average. He lacked things physically, but he was good positionally and was relatively smart.

Remember we were honestly better defensively this year than last year and that was with guys who should've been good at D because of athleticism, length, and experience, but were not.
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When you said they didn't attack him specifically you lost all credibility. He was playing at the right level of basketball prior to the transfer.
 



mizzougopher said:
When you said they didn't attack him specifically you lost all credibility. He was playing at the right level of basketball prior to the transfer.
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Explain your rationale then? Show proof that they did.

Most offenses that I know try to get the ball to their best player. Demir guarded that post a ton because we didn't want Oturu in foul trouble. So you can say they attacked Demir, but they didn't imo, they were getting the ball in their best players hands
 

Thanks for compiling this. This is awesome and why I come back to Gopherhole. I look forward to seeing how this will play out next year assuming we have a season ...and assuming we avoid the dreaded NCAA ruling that "all undergrad transfers are approved - EXCEPT Minnesota"
 

manderson1984 said:
Explain your rationale then? Show proof that they did.

Most offenses that I know try to get the ball to their best player. Demir guarded that post a ton because we didn't want Oturu in foul trouble. So you can say they attacked Demir, but they didn't imo, they were getting the ball in their best players hands
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I am not going to go through and breakdown tape of them attacking Demir. He was the PF, and he consistently got burned on the post. Eventually Pitino had to give in and put Oturu on players because he was so bad. Just watch the difference with someone like Johnson next year.
 

mizzougopher said:
I am not going to go through and breakdown tape of them attacking Demir. He was the PF, and he consistently got burned on the post. Eventually Pitino had to give in and put Oturu on players because he was so bad. Just watch the difference with someone like Johnson next year.
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That's fine that you see what you see, but I also get to see what I see and I provide data. I think Johnson has the ability to be a better defender than Demir, but so did Jordan Murphy and as a team we were better defensively this year than last years. Was that because Willis was better than McBrayer and Carr was better than Coffey?
 



I have had a change in heart and think the lineup will be this:

Carr
Gabe
Tre
Ihnen/Johnson
Robbins

Significant bench
Peterson Mashburn Ihnen/Johnson Omersa Curry

non significant Greenlee Mitchell Freeman
 

I don’t necessarily think Pitino is done yet. Still might need another player. Screwed if Carr doesn’t come back and/or Robbins/Peterson don’t get immediate eligibility. Still think there’s another transfer (maybe 2) out of the program.

Carr
Gabe
Robbins
Ihnen
Johnson

Curry (4 & 5)
Mashburn (1 & 2)
Peterson (wing)
Williams (wing)
Omersa (4 & energy)

Freeman
Greenlee
Mitchell
 

When the transfer waiver guidelines are voted on in May and pass, it should not surprise people to see even more transfer activity in June.

I could see Greenlee and Freeman looking around and not seeing a ton of playing time in at least the next two seasons.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I don’t necessarily think Pitino is done yet. Still might need another player. Screwed if Carr doesn’t come back and/or Robbins/Peterson don’t get immediate eligibility. Still think there’s another transfer (maybe 2) out of the program.

Carr
Gabe
Robbins
Ihnen
Johnson

Curry (4 & 5)
Mashburn (1 & 2)
Peterson (wing)
Williams (wing)
Omersa (4 & energy)

Freeman
Greenlee
Mitchell
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You may be right. When the NCAA says everyone gets a free transfer, I'd guess we lose one. I just can't see Carr going pro this year with no workouts and almost certainly undrafted. I guess Williams and Greenlee might be the obvious possibles....
 

JoshuaT81 said:
I think the real question is who will start at the "3" position. Will it be Peterson, ihnen, or Williams? I could see any of these guys starting.
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I'd be pretty surprised if it wasn't Peterson starting if he is eligible.
 

die hard gopher said:
I'd be pretty surprised if it wasn't Peterson starting if he is eligible.
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I also thought that. I talked to couple people that have more superior knowledge than myself about peterson and the gopher program and they said peterson would start. Ihnen came on strong though last part of season.
 

JoshuaT81 said:
I also thought that. I talked to couple people that have more superior knowledge than myself about peterson and the gopher program and they said peterson would start. Ihnen came on strong though last part of season.
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Main reason I didnt have him in the starting lineup was i am not sure Pitino would want to start 3 transfers, from an optics standpoint. Not sure the impacts on recruiting but tough sell for the guys already in the program. Coaching from the hot seat he may be thinking differently. Then again if the transfer rule goes through, that could soon be the norm.
 

chri1673 said:
Main reason I didnt have him in the starting lineup was i am not sure Pitino would want to start 3 transfers, from an optics standpoint. Not sure the impacts on recruiting but tough sell for the guys already in the program. Coaching from the hot seat he may be thinking differently. Then again if the transfer rule goes through, that could soon be the norm.
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One thing that didnt cross my mind was having 3 starters that are new to the team. So I definitely see that point. People with a year or more of experience in the gophs system might have the upper hand. Barring an individual that is just way more talented.
 
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chri1673 said:
Main reason I didnt have him in the starting lineup was i am not sure Pitino would want to start 3 transfers, from an optics standpoint. Not sure the impacts on recruiting but tough sell for the guys already in the program.
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1 - if those guys were better than the transfers, it wouldn't be an issue
2 - Pitino is coaching for his job this season
 

JoshuaT81 said:
One thing that didnt cross my mind was having 3 starters that are new to the team.
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But is it much different than a Kentucky, Duke, etc. that have 3 new freshmen McDonald's AA playing with each other for the first time?
 

Based on one highlight tape for Peterson. Based on some highlight tapes and Ihnen's play when he finally got on the floor those two guys are potentially our most explosive players. They should be on the court.
Maybe you can add Carr to that group but he is inconsistent and shorter.
I don't see the Williams love. He can be dependable but I don't see spectacular in him.
Demir standing in the right place does not equate to serviceable defense...definitely a liability most nights on that end.
Just a thought on Gabe: I was roundly booed for suggesting last year certain guys would struggle from three with increased distance. It's possible that was part of Gabe's issue. I believe his issue was mental...psyching himself out, whatever the cause. Hoping he comes back consistent this season.

If our guys eligible and healthy, it's pretty easy to see a much better team this coming year. Carr leaving however, would require a gift from God to play the point.

I think Mashburn will get minutes. I think he is fairly accomplished by comparison to many other incoming freshmen recently.

My most controversial question....how long is Mitchell in the program if Curry is healthy and the big guys are eligible?
Still need some dominoes to fall, but I think we have the makings of a very good team coming up.
:ROFLMAO:Don't want to even spend time worrying about SON's scenario.
 

MplsGopher said:
But is it much different than a Kentucky, Duke, etc. that have 3 new freshmen McDonald's AA playing with each other for the first time?
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Yeah I edited my post to say barring someone that is just way more talented.
 

PG- Carr-33 Mashburn-7
SG-Kalscheur-27, Mashburn-13
SF-Peterson-27, Williams-10, Kalscheur-3
PF-Johnson-20, Ihnen-20
C-Robbins-27, Omersa-5, Curry(if close to 100% health)-8 otherwise Ihnen and Johnson make up those 8 minutes as I think they could play together against a lot of teams. The real wildcard is that backup center spot. Which Curry do we get? Has Freeman made a jump forward and earned some minutes? I could see Freeman working into some time. As of now really the only guy I can't see playing at all is Greenlee. I don't have Mitchell in there either but I think he could end up being a lot like Ihnen where as the year goes on he could see some time and make more of an impact. Not sure where it would come from though maybe Omersa's minutes or maybe at the PF spot if Curry isn't all the way back and Johnson and Ihnen need to pick up some of those back up center minutes.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
At the risk of being a buzz kill ----

All of this is based on an assumption that the undergrad transfers will be eligible.

Maybe you trust the NCAA to "do the right thing" or make a logical decision. I don't. I always expect the NCAA to do the wrong thing and make an illogical decision.

Until the NCAA changes the rule, I think you have to prepare for the season as if the undergrad transfers will NOT be eligible. If they are eligible, great. But, if they're not, you had better have a plan, because you will be looking at a very different roster.

Remember all the people who thought Carr was going to get a waiver (including the Head Coach, as I recall)? how did that wind up?
Click to expand...
If we are going to have a problem with the NCAA I can't believe it would be on Robbins. Peterson maybe.
 

Carr may be gone. Seems to be the trend to play for money somewhere if possible. Been nice to had Willis if that’s the case. The scholarship used on Greenlee will possibly come back to haunt us unless he develops into a player Which is wishful thinking most likely .
 

Blackhammer said:
Carr may be gone. Seems to be the trend to play for money somewhere if possible. Been nice to had Willis if that’s the case. The scholarship used on Greenlee will possibly come back to haunt us unless he develops into a player Which is wishful thinking most likely .
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Carr will be back. If for any reason he is not Mashburn would play the point. Iowa got some pretty solid point guard play out of Toussant and he wasn't as highly rated as Mashburn.
 

I'll play.

Count me in the camp that doesn't see Ihnen as a 3 man at all. I'd be shocked if he played any minutes there assuming Peterson is eligible to play right away and the perimeter group stays mostly healthy (never a guarantee of course).

Here's my rough idea of minute allocation not counting overtime games:
PG: Carr (33) Mashburn (18)
SG: Kalscheur (32)
SF: Peterson (23) Williams (14)
PF: Johnson (27) Ihnen (21)
C: Robbins (24) Curry/Omersa/Freeman (8)

Before people get bent out of shape over who starts, I don't really care who starts but that's what I would guess the minutes look like. That gives them an 8.5 man rotation which is pretty normal in college hoops nowadays. I'd prefer Kalscheur not play 32 minutes but Pitino trusts him a ton, he's valuable defensively, and I can't see Williams or Mashburn carving too many minutes away from him.

The backup center spot is a mish-mash of folks. In a perfect world, Curry can fill in those minutes when the team doesn't go small with Ihnen and Johnson together. I suspect Robbins will spend more than a few games with foul trouble as that's life in the Big 10 for inexperienced (to the league) bigs. If it isn't Curry, I suppose Omersa is fine for 5-8 minutes a night.

As much as we want Carr to play less minutes, top of the league guards play 35ish minutes a night. And in all liklihood, they'll be playing a lot of contested games, in which Pitino will ride him because of lack of trust in the rest of his team. That, and he's very in tune with the efficiency metrics and won't want to risk those numbers dropping because his best players aren't playing.

I think they'll have better depth than they've had. It's not high-end depth, but it's better. But I still think the backcourt will play 80 percent of the game if only because Pitino is coaching for his job and those two guys have a trustability factor to them.
 

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