2019 Sagarin Preseason Predictions

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Herd said:
Where Sagarin ratings are accurate is in the relative strength of opponent. It’s a good relative look at easier v harder games. The gophers, currently at 53, would need to move up to the 25 range to win 8-10 games.
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I really hope there's some sort of plan in place to make that happen.

If there is a plan, I wonder what the timeline is.
 

vs South Dakota State -6 This is way off in my opinion. Gophers -14
@ Fresno State +2 I think this should be even
vs Georgia Southern -13.5 Didn't Georgia Tech run the triple option? This is about right.
@ Purdue +2 I think this is pretty close.
vs Illinois -14 This is a bit heavy, more like -10
vs Nebraska +5.5 This is the first real dis. I could see even or the obligatory -3 home game, but 5.5?
@ Rutgers -10.5 About right.
vs Maryland -4.5 About right. considering last year.
vs Penn State +9 Another huge dis. +9 at home? This should be within 3 pts of being even
@ Iowa +12 +6 or less. But cut some slack here as this could end up a blowout either way.
@ Northwestern +6 +2 feels more likely with all the changes on NW offense and their stingy defense, I expect a low scoring close game.
vs Wisconsin +7 Apparently Sagarin thinks Whisky is just reloading and not replacing 80% of their offensive line. They also have drank the Kool-Aid on the new quarterback. This should be even.


Not happy with the predictions, but the Gophers have to prove it to get the love.
 

These numbers are based in last year, and the blowout losses to Maryland, Illinois, and Nebraska are negatively affecting our rating quite a bit. If you truly believe the defense turned a corner with the firing of Robb Smith, you shouldn’t worry about this.


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Also...we’re actually 12.5 point favorites against SDSU, which is the first clue that the numbers are off (in this case, by 6.5 points). If we add 6.5 points to every game, things look pretty good.


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PitinoFan said:
Also...we’re actually 12.5 point favorites against SDSU, which is the first clue that the numbers are off (in this case, by 6.5 points). If we add 6.5 points to every game, things look pretty good.
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Sagarin's numbers are predictions based off data. Vegas lines aren't a prediction at all, but rather a number set to draw equal action to both teams. It wasn't that long ago that Vegas wouldn't even take action on FBS vs. FCS games, so it makes sense that the numbers are all over the place.
 


I bet we beat the spread vs SDSU that the Sagarin rankings has put.
 


Otis said:
vs South Dakota State -6 This is way off in my opinion. Gophers -14
@ Fresno State +2 I think this should be even
vs Georgia Southern -13.5 Didn't Georgia Tech run the triple option? This is about right.
@ Purdue +2 I think this is pretty close.
vs Illinois -14 This is a bit heavy, more like -10
vs Nebraska +5.5 This is the first real dis. I could see even or the obligatory -3 home game, but 5.5?
@ Rutgers -10.5 About right.
vs Maryland -4.5 About right. considering last year.
vs Penn State +9 Another huge dis. +9 at home? This should be within 3 pts of being even
@ Iowa +12 +6 or less. But cut some slack here as this could end up a blowout either way.
@ Northwestern +6 +2 feels more likely with all the changes on NW offense and their stingy defense, I expect a low scoring close game.
vs Wisconsin +7 Apparently Sagarin thinks Whisky is just reloading and not replacing 80% of their offensive line. They also have drank the Kool-Aid on the new quarterback. This should be even.


Not happy with the predictions, but the Gophers have to prove it to get the love.
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GSU runs the triple option but not from the Flex as GT did. GSU runs the Shotgun Option which the Gophers have never faced before!
 
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GSUsTALON said:
GSU runs the triple option but not from the Flex as GT did. GSU runs the Shotgun Option which witch the Gophers have never faced before!
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Watching highlights, it doesn’t look like anything daunting to defend. It’s just a bunch of RPO based plays with an extra back. The defense just needs to stay disciplined in containment. From there, it just comes down to who has the better athletes. Fleck said they had already done some preparation for this game in camp, so I’m sure they’ll be ready.

Werts is not nearly as quick as the Georgia Tech QB, but he might be a slightly better passer.

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PitinoFan said:
Watching highlights, it doesn’t look like anything daunting to defend. It’s just a bunch of RPO based plays with an extra back. The defense just needs to stay disciplined in containment. From there, it just comes down to who has the better athletes. Fleck said they had already done some preparation for this game in camp, so I’m sure they’ll be ready.

Werts is not nearly as quick as the Georgia Tech QB, but he might be a slightly better passer.

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Pitino - not true in either cases unless he has become a better passer!


I asked you to watch the way the Shotgun option should be played in the first 2 years GSU became FBS with FCS players.

GSU vs Georgia Tech last 3min under a new HC Fritz using the Pistol Option
GSU vs GThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGCcYrPSNWA

NC State last 3min under HC Fritz using the Pistol Option
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chaDvK8XM1E

2nd year running the Pistol Option under HC Fritz
UGA overtime 6min video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jng0ZOPUeHY

I've said many times GSU had a comeback year last year from a 2-9 team the year before and as I've stated GSUs HC stated we are hugely better than GSUs 2018 10-3 team!
 
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^

The QBs in those highlights look like better passers than Werts, and maybe even a little faster. Is that accurate?

Some of those running plays look a little tricky to defend, but I believe that to be the case with what Georgia Tech did as well. They led the nation in rushing offense for a reason.


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I’d say five and seven is about right right now. I was at the game yesterday. Getting stuffed on the 1 yard line… don’t forget, we are favored by 17… Incredible time out calls… Going for it on fourth and down in our own territory … I’d say six wins is our absolute ceiling. But five and seven looks a lot more likely. Thoughts?
 

Dakota Gopher said:
I’d say five and seven is about right right now. I was at the game yesterday. Getting stuffed on the 1 yard line… don’t forget, we are favored by 17… Incredible time out calls… Going for it on fourth and down in our own territory … I’d say six wins is our absolute ceiling. But five and seven looks a lot more likely. Thoughts?
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If they go 5-7 this year I'll be extremely disappointed. And I don't think I'd be alone in that. I mean, come on — they're 3-0 right now! Would anyone be anything but disappointed if they finished this season 2-7? Yuck!
 
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Gophers currently 37th in both polls.


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RememberMurray said:
If they go 5-7 this year I'll be extremely disappointed. And I don't think I'd be alone in that. I mean, come on — they're 3-0 right now! Would anyone be anything but disappointed if they finished this season 2-7? Yuck!
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Could easily happen without major improvements in execution by both the coaches and players. It's been very disheartening to me as well, but the team we've seen so far is very pedestrian and honestly no better than the one we saw early last season.
 

They have to show that they can win winnable B1G games and knock off a couple of ranked B1G teams along the way. IMHO, the Gophers are relegated to 5th/6th place in the B1G West if the wheels come apart. Staying healthy is a big factor.
 


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