2019 Sagarin Preseason Predictions

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Gopher07 said:
We're back for another year of mostly meaningless prognostication! As usual, I'll preface my first post of the season with my disclaimer - that is, these predictions are for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean anything when it comes to actual results. That said, it hasn't been too far off in recent years as far as final record is concerned.

Last year it had Minnesota on the line of 5-7 or 6-6 regular season (went 6-6), the year before it had them at 5-7 (went 5-7), and the year before that it said 8-4 was an outcome (went 8-4). All of those came pretty spot on at the end of the day.

All that to say that doesn't mean this year will be the same predictive outcome. However, the ratings would tell us it might be time to pump the brakes on the hype train. The Gophers find themselves in a lot of toss-up games, very few "sure things" and a few not-so-likely-to-win matchups. I expect, as usual, we'll find out a lot about the team in weeks 1 and 2 - a couple of toss-up games (one leaning in Minnesota's favor, one leaning in the opponent's) that, if the team performs well, could swing the season from borderline-bowl to maybe 8+ wins.

A reminder on how this comes together. I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

vs South Dakota State -6
@ Fresno State +2
vs Georgia Southern -13.5
@ Purdue +5.5
vs Illinois -14
vs Nebraska +5.5
@ Rutgers -10.5
vs Maryland -4.5
vs Penn State +9
@ Iowa +12
@ Northwestern +8
vs Wisconsin +7

Final record: 5-7 (3-6)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Georgia Southern, vs Illinois, @ Rutgers
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs South Dakota State, @ Fresno State, @ Purdue, vs Nebraska, vs Maryland
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, @ Iowa, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin
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Gopher07, I think you have a mistake in here. In 2017 Saragin had us going 6-6, not 5-7 according to your August 2017 post.


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Some Day...Maybe said:
Gopher07, I think you have a mistake in here. In 2017 Saragin had us going 6-6, not 5-7 according to your August 2017 post.


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Per my August 2017 post:

vs Buffalo -22
@ Oregon State +2.5
vs Middle Tennessee -9.5
vs Maryland -7.5
@ Purdue -7
vs Michigan State +4.5
vs Illinois -10.5
@ Iowa +6.5
@ Michigan +16.5
vs Nebraska +4
@ Northwestern +10.5
vs Wisconsin +14

Five wins in bold above...unless I'm missing something.
 
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I appreciate this thread.

If PJ gets this team to 6 wins or more he should get an extension for winning with so few seniors and juniors.

I will be really excited for PJ if we were bowl eligible again with such a young team and missing your#1 QB for the season.
 

This moderated my excitement for the season just a bit upon first glance. I think about things that could go negative like Morgan being injured or not playing as well as he did last year.
And then I remembered how many talented players this team has and how well they were gelling over the last four games this year. I think Sagarin might want to check himself.
 




I had double-counted some homefield advantage for Purdue and Northwestern. Updated lines are in the original post - it doesn't change anything from win/loss but does put NW in the toss-up category.
 

How does his formula factor in the 'good' vs. 'bad' Gophers versions of 2018, our best players coming back from injury, returning production, etc., real time injuries to opponents, if at all?
 

FMofDT said:
How does his formula factor in the 'good' vs. 'bad' Gophers versions of 2018, our best players coming back from injury, returning production, etc., real time injuries to opponents, if at all?
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It doesn't, we're penalized by Robb Smith in his rankings
 



Spoofin said:
“Peak”. IALTO.


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The Massey Predictor still has the Gophers by 14.

Please remember that the predictors for both Massey and Sagarin are preseason. THey will change after GSU & the Gophers first 2 games & throughout the season. So you will have to check every week.
 
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salzie said:
It doesn't, we're penalized by Robb Smith in his rankings
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It would be interesting to compare our advanced stats from games with Smith and without, and quantify how big the Smith handicap was. He was horrible.
 


FMofDT said:
How does his formula factor in the 'good' vs. 'bad' Gophers versions of 2018, our best players coming back from injury, returning production, etc., real time injuries to opponents, if at all?
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I dont think either the Massey or Sagarin Preseasons in head to head competition do a good job in the preseason. I think both do a better job by the 3rd game and do count real time injuries to opponents.
 
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Face The Facts said:
I appreciate this thread.

If PJ gets this team to 6 wins or more he should get an extension for winning with so few seniors and juniors.

I will be really excited for PJ if we were bowl eligible again with such a young team and missing your#1 QB for the season.
Click to expand...

Gotta love sarcasm.
 


Gopher07 said:
Per my August 2017 post:

vs Buffalo -22
@ Oregon State +2.5
vs Middle Tennessee -9.5
vs Maryland -7.5
@ Purdue -7
vs Michigan State +4.5
vs Illinois -10.5
@ Iowa +6.5
@ Michigan +16.5
vs Nebraska +4
@ Northwestern +10.5
vs Wisconsin +14

Five wins in bold above...unless I'm missing something.
Click to expand...

My bad, I was looking at your week 1 post before game 1 but after Oregon St had played a game.

vs Buffalo -22
@ Oregon State -1.5
vs Middle Tennessee -9.5
vs Maryland -7.5
@ Purdue -7
vs Michigan State +4.5
vs Illinois -10.5
@ Iowa +6.5
@ Michigan +16.5
vs Nebraska +4
@ Northwestern +10.5
vs Wisconsin +14

Final record: 6-6 (3-6)


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Does Saragin factor in coach led teams vs player led teams?

I think not! [emoji16]


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I don't think Sagarin gives any value for Nextons of the week either.
 

Does this factor in the number of captains on each team?


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I like the Sagarin analysis but I don't usually take it seriously until after a few games.
 

I wanted to see Gopher07 post from last year to see how the prediction panned out:

vs New Mexico State -12.5: actual -38
vs Fresno State -2: actual -7
vs Miami (Ohio) -13.5: actual -23
at Maryland +5.5: actual +29
vs Iowa + 12.5: actual +17:pig:
at Ohio State +32.5: actual +16
at Nebraska +8.5: actual +25
vs Indiana -2: actual -7
at Illinois -5.5: actual +24 :mad:
vs Purdue PICK: actual -31
vs Northwestern +8: actual +10
at Wisconsin +24: actual -22

If you took the points all last year, you would have had a good year
 





Spoofin said:
Does this factor in the number of captains on each team?


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Click to expand...

I think you mean leadership council members...
 
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Where Sagarin ratings are accurate is in the relative strength of opponent. It’s a good relative look at easier v harder games. With Sagarin, covering the spread is the key to moving up. Losing by 2 to Iowa, you move up. Winning by 3 to Illinois, you move down.
 
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