Gopher07
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Back for another year, it's this thing! And the preseason predictions are riding a bit of a hot streak. In 2017, the initial predictions had the Gophers going 5-7 (of course, the Gophers ended up going 5-7). In 2016, the initial predictions had them going 7-5 or 8-4 (Minnesota went 8-4).
My usual disclaimer about these remains in place this year - that is, they're simply for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean a lick when it comes to actual results.
On to the predictions - and they're not super great for our Gophers. The math gives us a big advantage in just two games this year - NMSU and Miami - while the rest are toss-ups or pretty big margins in favor of opponents. Two years ago we had five "should win" games and last year we had four.
In conference, we're expected to be competitive with Maryland, Indiana, Illinois and Purdue, while the non-conference tilt with Fresno is shaping up to be an early-season inflection point for the team. Win the games we're favored in and bowl eligibility may come down to the home game against the Boilermakers - right now it's a PICK between Minnesota and Brohm's squad and it could be the difference between 12 and 13 games.
As for trophy games? The math isn't kind here. Even with home field advantage, we're pegged as nearly two-touchdown underdogs against Iowa (ranked 16th overall in the ratings), while the trip to Wisconsin (ranked 6th overall) is also not looking kind for the 14th year in a row.
But - that's why we play the games. Here's hoping we can perform above and beyond these numbers and really surprise some people in 2018.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs New Mexico State -12.5
vs Fresno State -2
vs Miami (Ohio) -13.5
at Maryland +5.5
vs Iowa + 12.5
at Ohio State +32.5
at Nebraska +8.5
vs Indiana -2
at Illinois -5.5
vs Purdue PICK
vs Northwestern +8
at Wisconsin +24
Final record: 5-7 (2-7)/6-6 (3-6)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs New Mexico State, vs Miami (Ohio)
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Fresno State, @ Maryland, vs Indiana, @ Illinois, vs Purdue
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Nebraska, vs Northwestern, @ Wisconsin
My usual disclaimer about these remains in place this year - that is, they're simply for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean a lick when it comes to actual results.
On to the predictions - and they're not super great for our Gophers. The math gives us a big advantage in just two games this year - NMSU and Miami - while the rest are toss-ups or pretty big margins in favor of opponents. Two years ago we had five "should win" games and last year we had four.
In conference, we're expected to be competitive with Maryland, Indiana, Illinois and Purdue, while the non-conference tilt with Fresno is shaping up to be an early-season inflection point for the team. Win the games we're favored in and bowl eligibility may come down to the home game against the Boilermakers - right now it's a PICK between Minnesota and Brohm's squad and it could be the difference between 12 and 13 games.
As for trophy games? The math isn't kind here. Even with home field advantage, we're pegged as nearly two-touchdown underdogs against Iowa (ranked 16th overall in the ratings), while the trip to Wisconsin (ranked 6th overall) is also not looking kind for the 14th year in a row.
But - that's why we play the games. Here's hoping we can perform above and beyond these numbers and really surprise some people in 2018.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs New Mexico State -12.5
vs Fresno State -2
vs Miami (Ohio) -13.5
at Maryland +5.5
vs Iowa + 12.5
at Ohio State +32.5
at Nebraska +8.5
vs Indiana -2
at Illinois -5.5
vs Purdue PICK
vs Northwestern +8
at Wisconsin +24
Final record: 5-7 (2-7)/6-6 (3-6)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs New Mexico State, vs Miami (Ohio)
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Fresno State, @ Maryland, vs Indiana, @ Illinois, vs Purdue
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Nebraska, vs Northwestern, @ Wisconsin