2017 QB Fall-off? - Not so fast

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csom_1991

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You probably all know that I am not a huge fan of ML's play - as a person, seems wonderful - as the Gopher QB, not so good. We have also seen a ton of comments lately from people saying that we will be wishing to have ML back next year when our QBs suffer growing pains, etc.

While that may be true - I think a look at the stats is warranted:

ML full stats / ML Stats (ex IndSt*)

ATT: 287 / 257
COMP: 162 / 142
YARDS: 2040 / 1745
TD: 7 / 3
INT: 12 / 12
QBR (NFL): 69.5 / 60.8
QBR (NCAA): 115 / 107

* I exclude IndSt because they are not FBS competition

First things first - you note that the NCAA QBR is ridiculous - I just post that here so people that are unfamiliar with how greatly it differs from NFL can understand just how wide that gulf is.

Second - how does Demry compare? Remember, his PT was against B1G competition and usually came after the wheels had already come off - meaning, against superior competition.

ATT: 17
COMP: 7
YARDS: 34
TD: 0
INT: 0
QBR (NFL): 48.9

So, it was a very limited body of work (essential limited PT in 2 games and a single pass against tOSU) - but the reality is that this was not that much worse that what ML put up on the season against FBS competition. Also, this was as a true freshman without the benefit of 1st team reps and 3 years starting for the Gophers. I would also argue - the fact that he did not turn the ball over (ML averaged 1 INT/21 ATT) probably would place the Gophers in a better position to win.

Limited stats for comparison - but I don't think we are going to see a huge fall off at the QB position regardless of who steps in as starter. If TC and staff remain intact and Croft shows ANY improvement at QB - he should, at a minimum, replicate ML's stats from this year. Even if he, or Green, falls slightly short of ML's stats but limit turnovers, I don't see the total production at QB being worse than this year.

So - overall a reason to be optimistic for next year. I can easily see 8 wins on the schedule even with ML type production. Does that get us overly excited? Probably not - but if we can get 8 wins with a 1st year starter - things look better 2-3 years down the road as they mature (barring an ML regression).
 

I would put almost zero stock into Demry's numbers. Just too little of a sample size. I am cautiously optimistic about either him or Seth however.
 

die hard gopher said:
I would put almost zero stock into Demry's numbers.
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I agree with the small sample size - however, there is NO indication that his stats would be worse than ML other than the argument "the coaches know best" - which is not even valid as there is the RS consideration in his case. If anything, I think CR transferring is a sign that the coaches do have confidence in what they have at QB. Not that Demry would be all-B1G as a 1st year starter - but we won 8 games with ML's poor numbers so I don't see a huge fall off.
 

The bottom line is we have no clue what to expect from the backups. It absolutely could get better and it absolutely could get worse next year.

Mitch was very up and down, at his best he was a solid game manager that wouldn't kill you most of the time and could keep you in games. At his worst....well we all saw that in the 2nd half against Wisconsin yesterday so no need to rehash.

Hopefully the new guys will take the reigns and get it done. The Kill/Claeys era has not given us much reason to expect them to recruit/develop a great option at QB but maybe Green can be that guy.

Will be a very interesting off season and spring to watch to see which option emerges as the likely starter next season. I want to believe it can't get worse but until we see them on the field there is still a distinct possibility that it will be.
 

3 TDs / 12 INTs. Oh my.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 


I sincerely hope that a clear choice emerges next season. I don't want another season like Leidner and Nelson splitting snaps, or the current situation with the Badger QBs. Pick a guy, and let him play through struggles (unless he's a complete disaster of course).

Sorry for the duplicate post below.
 

I sincerely hope that a clear choice emerges next season. I don't want another season like Leidner and Nelson splitting snaps, or the current situation with the Badger QBs. Pick a guy, and let him play through struggles (unless he's a complete disaster of course).

If the QB can just "manage" the offense, make a few key throws here and there, they'll have the luxury of leaning on Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith the next 2 seasons
 

fiopadp7791 said:
I sincerely hope that a clear choice emerges next season.
Click to expand...

My only caveat to that is I want the coach to have a credible threat to pull the guy should they make stupid decisions. We can forgive physical mistakes - under thrown ball, etc - but we cannot have the guy out there forcing throws and making horrible decisions like ML did in the 2nd half - that is not fair to the other players. The coaches should have pulled ML for a series after his 2nd INT before it started to snowball. Without any credible threat - the stupid mistakes will continue (refer to Brett Favre's career).
 

Until the bullets are live we have no idea how these guys will perform. The latest example of this is at USC, where two very highly touted QBs fought all offseason with Max Browne eventually getting the nod and starting the first 3 games. He sucked, the backup came in and the rest is history.

I'm probably more pessimistic about next year than most based on the reports I've been reading from the pay-site guys. Obviously anything can happen and they are trying to bring in one or two QBs this year per Claeys. One of those would be a JUCO and a threat to start immediately.
 



To be honest it really doesn't matter who wins the QB battle because our success or lack thereof, will depend on what happens in the off-season with the offensive linemen. If they get bigger, stronger, faster then we have a chance.
 


csom_1991 said:
You probably all know that I am not a huge fan of ML's play - as a person, seems wonderful - as the Gopher QB, not so good. We have also seen a ton of comments lately from people saying that we will be wishing to have ML back next year when our QBs suffer growing pains, etc.

While that may be true - I think a look at the stats is warranted:

ML full stats / ML Stats (ex IndSt*)

ATT: 287 / 257
COMP: 162 / 142
YARDS: 2040 / 1745
TD: 7 / 3
INT: 12 / 12
QBR (NFL): 69.5 / 60.8
QBR (NCAA): 115 / 107

* I exclude IndSt because they are not FBS competition

First things first - you note that the NCAA QBR is ridiculous - I just post that here so people that are unfamiliar with how greatly it differs from NFL can understand just how wide that gulf is.

Second - how does Demry compare? Remember, his PT was against B1G competition and usually came after the wheels had already come off - meaning, against superior competition.

ATT: 17
COMP: 7
YARDS: 34
TD: 0
INT: 0
QBR (NFL): 48.9

So, it was a very limited body of work (essential limited PT in 2 games and a single pass against tOSU) - but the reality is that this was not that much worse that what ML put up on the season against FBS competition. Also, this was as a true freshman without the benefit of 1st team reps and 3 years starting for the Gophers. I would also argue - the fact that he did not turn the ball over (ML averaged 1 INT/21 ATT) probably would place the Gophers in a better position to win.

Limited stats for comparison - but I don't think we are going to see a huge fall off at the QB position regardless of who steps in as starter. If TC and staff remain intact and Croft shows ANY improvement at QB - he should, at a minimum, replicate ML's stats from this year. Even if he, or Green, falls slightly short of ML's stats but limit turnovers, I don't see the total production at QB being worse than this year.

So - overall a reason to be optimistic for next year. I can easily see 8 wins on the schedule even with ML type production. Does that get us overly excited? Probably not - but if we can get 8 wins with a 1st year starter - things look better 2-3 years down the road as they mature (barring an ML regression).
Click to expand...
Mitch had 10 rushing TDs. That adds a little to his value

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Pompous Elitist said:
Until the bullets are live we have no idea how these guys will perform. The latest example of this is at USC, where two very highly touted QBs fought all offseason with Max Browne eventually getting the nod and starting the first 3 games. He sucked, the backup came in and the rest is history.
Click to expand...

I think we should make a play for Browne actually - would be a good gap-filler. He basically got 3 chances at USC - 2 of them against Bama and Stanford. Still, he had the following stats:


ATT: 93
COMP: 58
YARDS: 507
TD: 2
INT: 2
QBR: 74.5

So, he 'sucked' but was still way better than ML despite playing 2 of 3 games vs. top tier defenses. I would like to see what he could do here.

As far as next year - if we have a QB that throws 10-15 times per game at 40-50% but NO TURNOVERS, we win 8 games easily. If they can make a few plays, we have a shot at 9. The future is not all bad.
 



"Wouldn't kill you most of the time."

Mitch killed us in four games this year. You could add the Purdue interception, too.

I'm convinced the QB will not be a step down next year. May not be better, but not worse. They'll make a lot of mistakes, but they have a lot of leeway to match Leidner's mistakes as a 5th year senior. And they'll run better.

It may be true that they weren't good enough to play this year. But players get bigger, stronger and smarter, then they replace those leaving. That's college football.

Frankly, I'm more worried about the offensive line taking a step forward.

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Next year's QB had better hope a viable option at the TE position emerges. I'm not defending Mitch but not having Lingen for pretty much the entire season was devastating, and Wozniak was horribly disappointing. Drops, missed blocks, you name it.

As far as the O-line, everyone but Pirsig comes back basically, and hopefully the JUCO's that came in and were forced into action (Greene, Wright and Calhoun) will have an offseason to digest what it takes to be a B1G O-lineman (and hopefully digest a lot less calories than they have been to this point).

I'm optimistic. There's a lot coming back in all the other positions and a WHOLE lot can happen between now and next fall in terms of maturity and development. I think we'll be alright.
 

Who knows whether there will be a fall-off or not. The coaching staff chose to redshirt both of their potential starting Qbs for next year and the only Qb that got any game experience this year was apparently not good enough to extend a scholarship to for next season and is transferring. The coaches decided to go with Mitch and when he struggled this year, apparently were not confident enough in Rhoda to put him in. Poor starting Qb play and apparently no confidence in your back-up Qb is one of the reasons that this team did not reach its potential this year. If the coaching staff felt that either Croft or Green were better than Rhoda, they should have been Mitch's back-up and have seen some time this year. If the coaches believe that Rhoda was better, it could make for a tough 2017.
 

csom_1991 said:
I think we should make a play for Browne actually - would be a good gap-filler. He basically got 3 chances at USC - 2 of them against Bama and Stanford. Still, he had the following stats:


ATT: 93
COMP: 58
YARDS: 507
TD: 2
INT: 2
QBR: 74.5

So, he 'sucked' but was still way better than ML despite playing 2 of 3 games vs. top tier defenses. I would like to see what he could do here.

As far as next year - if we have a QB that throws 10-15 times per game at 40-50% but NO TURNOVERS, we win 8 games easily. If they can make a few plays, we have a shot at 9. The future is not all bad.
Click to expand...

Perhaps a strong word to use but QBs get a quick hook at USC if they don't perform to a high bar. Since Johnson appears to want a dual threat and we don't have 5 stars running routes I don't know that Browne would be a perfect fit. Obviously tou take a guy like that and try to make it work but he's definitely a pure passer.
 

46Gophers said:
Who knows whether there will be a fall-off or not. The coaching staff chose to redshirt both of their potential starting Qbs
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That could end up hurting or helping TC. If he is still here coaching next year, it was the right move for him. If he is gone, poor choice. I think if they knew how bad Mitch would regress, they would have burned one of the redshirt.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Perhaps a strong word to use
Click to expand...

I agree with you actually - by USC standards, he sucked. It just shows the difference in expectations as well as talent level. Now, Browne had better WR talent than ML - but these were his first real snaps. I would have expected ML to put up much better numbers - I think the coaches did and ML did as well. Again - I can forgive physical mistakes - it is the mental ones that hurt. Shows the kid is uncoachable and/or our coaching is poor....neither a very good cause.
 

csom_1991 said:
I agree with you actually - by USC standards, he sucked. It just shows the difference in expectations as well as talent level. Now, Browne had better WR talent than ML - but these were his first real snaps. I would have expected ML to put up much better numbers - I think the coaches did and ML did as well. Again - I can forgive physical mistakes - it is the mental ones that hurt. Shows the kid is uncoachable and/or our coaching is poor....neither a very good cause.
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Yeah it is clear that Mitch did not have good QB instincts and this was apparent early on but attributed to being just a Sophomore. A propensity to force throws rather than throw it away or check down, holding the ball a tick too long, and horrendous accuracy and decisions in those games we couldn't protect him well. So frustrating as he had a more than adequate arm, looked the part, was a good team player/face of the program. His reign will be debated here for decades to come, long after the memories of the actual gameplay fade the stats will be used in arguments.
 

Hates Monikers said:
"Wouldn't kill you most of the time."

Mitch killed us in four games this year. You could add the Purdue interception, too.

I'm convinced the QB will not be a step down next year. May not be better, but not worse. They'll make a lot of mistakes, but they have a lot of leeway to match Leidner's mistakes as a 5th year senior. And they'll run better.

It may be true that they weren't good enough to play this year. But players get bigger, stronger and smarter, then they replace those leaving. That's college football.

Frankly, I'm more worried about the offensive line taking a step forward.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

We get everyone back except Pirsig. The 3 Juco played a lot this year and will be better, Weyler emerged out of nowhere, Moore played well, and word is that Conner Olson and Sam Schleuter are in the 2 deeps in practice. Our o-line should be better.
 

46Gophers said:
Who knows whether there will be a fall-off or not. The coaching staff chose to redshirt both of their potential starting Qbs for next year and the only Qb that got any game experience this year was apparently not good enough to extend a scholarship to for next season and is transferring. The coaches decided to go with Mitch and when he struggled this year, apparently were not confident enough in Rhoda to put him in. Poor starting Qb play and apparently no confidence in your back-up Qb is one of the reasons that this team did not reach its potential this year. If the coaching staff felt that either Croft or Green were better than Rhoda, they should have been Mitch's back-up and have seen some time this year. If the coaches believe that Rhoda was better, it could make for a tough 2017.
Click to expand...
Interesting analysis. You'd think burning a year would have been worth it if the talent was there to really help. As you suggest, maybe it isn't. Claeys doesn't have the luxury of wasting a year.
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
Interesting analysis. You'd think burning a year would have been worth it if the talent was there to really help. As you suggest, maybe it isn't. Claeys doesn't have the luxury of wasting a year.
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It seems pretty incongruous that Claeys would keep RS on not one but two QBs, while everyone was saying he was making every other personnel decision to win this year at all costs. He brought in several JUCO starters and played a number of true frosh. If Croft or Green were thought to be capable it doesn't make sense that he would be banking on having both of those QBs available 4 years from now, at the expense of this year.
 

csom_1991 said:
My only caveat to that is I want the coach to have a credible threat to pull the guy should they make stupid decisions. We can forgive physical mistakes - under thrown ball, etc - but we cannot have the guy out there forcing throws and making horrible decisions like ML did in the 2nd half - that is not fair to the other players. The coaches should have pulled ML for a series after his 2nd INT before it started to snowball. Without any credible threat - the stupid mistakes will continue (refer to Brett Favre's career).
Click to expand...

Last I checked Brett's career he won a Superbowl and is in the Hall of Fame.
 

John Galt said:
We get everyone back except Pirsig. The 3 Juco played a lot this year and will be better, Weyler emerged out of nowhere, Moore played well, and word is that Conner Olson and Sam Schleuter are in the 2 deeps in practice. Our o-line should be better.
Click to expand...

I wasn't overwhelmed by the JUCO players- especially Calhoun who was constantly reaching after the DL who just crossed his face. They all need to improve.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

kisarazu said:
Last I checked Brett's career he won a Superbowl and is in the Hall of Fame.
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I am Green Bay born and raised so I am and will always be a Favre fan. That said, when he played with discipline, he had much better results for the team. When people have no negative consequences for poor decisions, they tend to keep making poor decisions.
 

I know it's too late now, but had this Wisconsin game happened earlier in the season, maybe the coaches would have sat Mitch in favor of another guy.
You wonder if he lost the trust of the defensive players after that second half.
For next year my gut tells me the team will be better off with a juco, but I haven't seen Green in practice or Croft since last year.
 

46Gophers said:
Who knows whether there will be a fall-off or not. The coaching staff chose to redshirt both of their potential starting Qbs for next year and the only Qb that got any game experience this year was apparently not good enough to extend a scholarship to for next season and is transferring. The coaches decided to go with Mitch and when he struggled this year, apparently were not confident enough in Rhoda to put him in. Poor starting Qb play and apparently no confidence in your back-up Qb is one of the reasons that this team did not reach its potential this year. If the coaching staff felt that either Croft or Green were better than Rhoda, they should have been Mitch's back-up and have seen some time this year. If the coaches believe that Rhoda was better, it could make for a tough 2017.
Click to expand...

We talked with a football player on Tuesday during the basketball game who went to same high as my buddy who I was at the game with. So we asked him tons of football questions and he was willing to answer them honestly.

He said its hard to believe but Mitch was by far best QB on roster and it wasn't close.. those guys are not ready. Says need a transfer or Juco guy otherwise it will be a long year.

Gentry is best WR on roster.. by the time he got healthy end of the year it was to late to move ahead of everyone else.

Myrick overrated fast but that's it will get drafted and be a bust.

He said he doesn't care for Cleays but most of the team likes him and cleays is worried about his job.

santos screwed himself because he had a very good shot at NFL FG kicker not at punter.
 

I honestly hope there is a fall off. If there isn't a fall off we just wasted our best chance at a big ten title in 10 years.
 

Some guy said:
I honestly hope there is a fall off. If there isn't a fall off we just wasted our best chance at a big ten title in 10 years.
Click to expand...

This is only true if there was no doubt Croft or Green was physically ready to step in. Croft was only listed as 200 lbs. at 6-5. Green reportedly needed to add arm strength. Physically, both should get bigger and stronger. Thus, I have a hard time believing that sitting them this year meant the team wasted an opportunity to play in the BT Championship game.
 

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