10 More wins and we are dancing?!?

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Skiumah77

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Do you guys think if we win 10 more games this year, win 2 More in Non conference and go 8-10 in Conference.. is that good enough to go Dancing at 20-11 Not counting post season games
 

It really depends on who we beat in-conference. We would need to pick up at least 2-3 signature wins to even be considered at 8-10.
 

I'd feel pretty secure with 22-9, 10-8. The issue with 8-10 with quality wins is that there is likely going to be a couple stinkers in there that will have a negative impact on the SC choosing the Gophers.
 

DeathClutch said:
It really depends on who we beat in-conference. We would need to pick up at least 2-3 signature wins to even be considered at 8-10.
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Would we really? I've kind of wondered how that works. Are we better off if we lose to Penn State twice but beat Wisconsin twice, or the other way around?

To answer the OP's question though, I'd lean toward saying 20-11 and 8-10 would put us on the wrong side of the bubble unless Arkansas ends up being a top 25 caliber win, especially if we lose our first game in the Big Ten tournament, probably to someone like Northwestern, Illinois, or Iowa. It already kinda looks like Vanderbilt and St. John's won't amount to much, and UT-Arlington might very well be our 2nd best non-conference win. The Big Ten already only has 3 ranked teams, with only 1 in the top 10, so if the conference is kinda weak, we might need to put up a better record to get in. On the other hand, the conference being weak makes it easier to get a better record. There might not be a lot of opportunity for signature wins in conference, unless Michigan State gets rolling, and Michigan and Ohio State end up being decent.
 

Cayman said:
Would we really? I've kind of wondered how that works. Are we better off if we lose to Penn State twice but beat Wisconsin twice, or the other way around?

To answer the OP's question though, I'd lean toward saying 20-11 and 8-10 would put us on the wrong side of the bubble unless Arkansas ends up being a top 25 caliber win, especially if we lose our first game in the Big Ten tournament, probably to someone like Northwestern, Illinois, or Iowa. It already kinda looks like Vanderbilt and St. John's won't amount to much, and UT-Arlington might very well be our 2nd best non-conference win. The Big Ten already only has 3 ranked teams, with only 1 in the top 10, so if the conference is kinda weak, we might need to put up a better record to get in. On the other hand, the conference being weak makes it easier to get a better record. There might not be a lot of opportunity for signature wins in conference, unless Michigan State gets rolling, and Michigan and Ohio State end up being decent.
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I would think we should get in if we go 9-9 in conference and win one round or two in the big ten tourney
 


I think 22 is the magic number. 21 wins in the regular season and 1 in the tournament.
 

Cayman said:
Would we really? I've kind of wondered how that works. Are we better off if we lose to Penn State twice but beat Wisconsin twice, or the other way around?

To answer the OP's question though, I'd lean toward saying 20-11 and 8-10 would put us on the wrong side of the bubble unless Arkansas ends up being a top 25 caliber win, especially if we lose our first game in the Big Ten tournament, probably to someone like Northwestern, Illinois, or Iowa. It already kinda looks like Vanderbilt and St. John's won't amount to much, and UT-Arlington might very well be our 2nd best non-conference win. The Big Ten already only has 3 ranked teams, with only 1 in the top 10, so if the conference is kinda weak, we might need to put up a better record to get in. On the other hand, the conference being weak makes it easier to get a better record. There might not be a lot of opportunity for signature wins in conference, unless Michigan State gets rolling, and Michigan and Ohio State end up being decent.
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Sweeping Wisconsin trumps losing to Penn State twice. Quality wins (especially on road) can overcome bad losses. Only the truly elite are likely to end up with no bad losses.
 

DeathClutch said:
It really depends on who we beat in-conference. We would need to pick up at least 2-3 signature wins to even be considered at 8-10.
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Perhaps, but have you seen the sorry condition of the bubble ever since the field expanded?
 

I think 8-10 at least gives us a chance. Makes Selection Sunday a little more interesting anyway!
 




10-8 if your looking at a non conference schedule that results in only 2 top 100 victories. But there is not a reason before the fact that this team does not get to 10-8 or 11-7. That is what you do to become a better program and become a top 4-5 program in the Big10.
 

builtbadgers said:
10-8 if your looking at a non conference schedule that results in only 2 top 100 victories. But there is not a reason before the fact that this team does not get to 10-8 or 11-7. That is what you do to become a better program and become a top 4-5 program in the Big10.
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Are you saying that in order to become a better program that a team needs to win more games? Solid insight.
 

GopherRock said:
Perhaps, but have you seen the sorry condition of the bubble ever since the field expanded?
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Yeah, folks always over-estimate the quality if the bubble. I'd say 8-10, 20-11 puts them squarely on it, 9-9 probably puts them over the top. It does matter who they beat though. If they somehow get 8 wins while only beating Iowa, PSU, Rutgers, Northwestern, Nebraska, Illinois and Michigan then it wouldn't be enough. But that's incredibly unlikely (they only have 8 games against those teams.)
 



Skiumah77 said:
Do you guys think if we win 10 more games this year, win 2 More in Non conference and go 8-10 in Conference.. is that good enough to go Dancing at 20-11 Not counting post season games
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No we need to go 9-9. Don't think the Bigten is quite strong enough like it was four years ago and while we have some good non con wins there not quite that good
 

Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:
I'd feel pretty secure with 22-9, 10-8. The issue with 8-10 with quality wins is that there is likely going to be a couple stinkers in there that will have a negative impact on the SC choosing the Gophers.
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Other conference teams play into the decision as well. If others on bubble dont have a good reason to be picked we may get in or vice versa.
 

I'd just like to get a first round bye in the BTT tournament once...

We've NOT played in the first round of the BTT exactly once: 2005.

So: Goal #1. Don't play on first day of BTT. Goal #2. Don't play on first two days of BTT.
 

brucekaupa said:
I'd just like to get a first round bye in the BTT tournament once...

We've NOT played in the first round of the BTT exactly once: 2005.

So: Goal #1. Don't play on first day of BTT. Goal #2. Don't play on first two days of BTT.
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I think you're describing a double bye I too would like to avoid playing on Wednesday, top four avoid Thursday
 

Want to take away any doubt (heading to Washington D.C.)?

Win 10 conference games.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Want to take away any doubt (heading to Washington D.C.)?

Win 10 conference games.
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I agree. I think 10 (assuming we go 12-1 NC) does it. I am really excited for this team to start conference play. Getting a W vs MSU on the opening night would be huge to start off B1G Ten play!
 

howeda7 said:
Yeah, folks always over-estimate the quality if the bubble. I'd say 8-10, 20-11 puts them squarely on it, 9-9 probably puts them over the top. It does matter who they beat though. If they somehow get 8 wins while only beating Iowa, PSU, Rutgers, Northwestern, Nebraska, Illinois and Michigan then it wouldn't be enough. But that's incredibly unlikely (they only have 8 games against those teams.)
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I think we might be in for a little shake up at the top of the BIG this year. Northwestern, only losses to top 25 teams Baylor and Butler, looks legit. But yeah we likely need to add OSU, MSU, MD or WISC to that list to get a 2nd quality win.
 

I have no idea how some of you think the Big Ten became bad in the last 10 days. The conference is plenty strong. 7 teams are ahead of us in Kenpom in top 42. Maryland is 11 and 1 and behind us...they'll move up. Illinois is not an easy out, also behind us now. That's nine tough teams and maybe because of injury or unknown circumstances one might slide but the majority of those nine teams are solid programs ahead of us. We gotta play lights out to go 8 and 10. In which case if we win our first conference tournament game, I think we are in at 21 wins... if we win our last two non conference games.... can't stumble there.
 

Thought from previous thread: Gophers "Safe Space" Heading to Washington D.C.

Assumes 12-1 non-conference. Always do these scenarios with idea in mind the Gophers lose their first B1G Tournament game. To feel "completely safe" on Selection Sunday, no questions asked, Gophers need to go 10-8 in the B1G, making them 22-9 heading to D.C. Obviously, if they fall short in one category -- especially the "must wins" -- have to make it up in one of the other (tougher) categories.

Gophers Journey to the Tourney (Do This, NCAA Without A Doubt)
ABSOLUTE "MUST WINS" (5-0)
1 @ Penn State
2 Iowa
3 @ Rutgers
4 Penn State
5 Nebraska

SPLIT THE "EITHER WAYS" (3-3)
1 Michigan State -- Big, big, big, big, big game to start the season. Big for the psyche of a team/program trying to find its way.
2 @ Northwestern
3 Ohio State
4 @ Illinois
5 Maryland
6 Michigan

"STEAL" A COUPLE (2-5)
1 @ Purdue
2 @ Michigan State
3 Wisconsin
4 @ Ohio State
5 Indiana
6 @ Maryland
7 @ Wisconsin
 


SelectionSunday said:
Assumes 12-1 non-conference. Always do these scenarios with idea in mind the Gophers lose their first B1G Tournament game. To feel "completely safe" on Selection Sunday, no questions asked, Gophers need to go 10-8 in the B1G, making them 22-9 heading to D.C. Obviously, if they fall short in one category -- especially the "must wins" -- have to make it up in one of the other (tougher) categories.

Gophers Journey to the Tourney (Do This, NCAA Without A Doubt)
ABSOLUTE "MUST WINS" (5-0)
1 @ Penn State
2 Iowa
3 @ Rutgers
4 Penn State
5 Nebraska

SPLIT THE "EITHER WAYS" (3-3)
1 Michigan State -- Big, big, big, big, big game to start the season. Big for the psyche of a team/program trying to find its way.
2 @ Northwestern
3 Ohio State
4 @ Illinois
5 Maryland
6 Michigan

"STEAL" A COUPLE (2-5)
1 @ Purdue
2 @ Michigan State
3 Wisconsin
4 @ Ohio State
5 Indiana
6 @ Maryland
7 @ Wisconsin
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Hate to say it but it seems unlikely when split out like that. I'd be very happy with 9-9 and would consider 8-10 a success. If we could head to the B1G tournament needing one win to get into the tourney that would be a great outcome imo.
 

Golden_Sloth said:
Hate to say it but it seems unlikely when split out like that. I'd be very happy with 9-9 and would consider 8-10 a success. If we could head to the B1G tournament needing one win to get into the tourney that would be a great outcome imo.
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The Gophers played every ranked B1G team down to the wire last season. They can definitely pull off a few of those victories this year.

I think 9-9 gets them in. 10-8 gets them about a 6 or 7 seed.
 

With a good home crowd behind them, I'm confident this team can beat Indiana and Wisconsin at home.
 

"Either Ways" the most doable

Golden_Sloth said:
Hate to say it but it seems unlikely when split out like that. I'd be very happy with 9-9 and would consider 8-10 a success. If we could head to the B1G tournament needing one win to get into the tourney that would be a great outcome imo.
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I think the "either ways" is the most doable. No reason (for example) Gophers can't beat a young, undersized & banged up MSU, 1 of Michigan/Maryland at home, and 1 of Northwestern/Illinois on the road. I'll actually be disappointed if they're not 4-2 in those games.

However, not yet convinced Gophers are ready to win all 5 games vs. likely inferior teams. Won't be surprised if they go 4-1 or even 3-2 vs. the "absolutes".

Last one's gonna' be difficult because 5 of the 7 are on the road, and the 2 home games are vs. perhaps the B1G's best 2 teams. To counter that, Gophers need to make hay in the "either ways".
 

I don't think it's hard to fathom being either 7-2 or 6-3 at home and flip it to 2-7 or 3-6 on the road. Gets us to 9-9 which I think gets us in. SS is right on when he places so much importance on the Dec 27 game vs Izzo. Need to get the Barn back to a big home court advantage.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

The MSU game is huge. Assuming we're 12-1 going in.

Win that and it'll be, "Hmm...maybe they are for real..." Lose that and it'll be, "Yep, cupcake pre-conference schedule and here we go again..."
 

To Bridges, or Not to Bridges, That is the Question

If Miles Bridges doesn't play, I give the Gophers a 90% chance of winning that game. Gophers, especially Lynch & Murphy, should manhandle Sparty down low.

If Bridges plays, I'd knock it down to about 60% chance of a Gopher win.
 

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