Road to Selection Sunday: Clock Is Ticking For Likely Bubble Teams

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Road to Selection Sunday: Clock Is Ticking For Likely Bubble Teams
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/341064?referrer_id=388419

BUBBLETOWN, U.S. -- As we inch our way toward February, the 2014 NCAA Tournament bubble remains expansive but is starting to take shape. True, it's not until about the second week of February when "bubble talk" truly starts to become relevant, but we've reached the point of the season where the pressure starts to mount, the games get bigger, and the knuckles get whiter.

Teams simply trying to get noticed by the Selection Committee understand that the clock is ticking (that means you Indiana, La Salle, LSU, and Richmond, among many others). The time to rip off resume-building wins starts right about now. The Gophers (13-5, 3-3 Big Ten) recorded one such win last Thursday over Ohio State, one that, for now, has them on the correct side of the tourney bubble. Other "former" bubble teams made headway last week, as well. Surging Texas knocked off Iowa State, while Xavier -- a team that placed 8th in the 8-team Battle 4 Atlantis -- blitzed Georgetown with a game-ending 16-0 run to solidify its spot in the bracket.

At this writing, only 55 days from Selection Sunday, RTSS is somewhat comfortable filling 63 of the 68 tournament spots. The Gophers, despite their Sunday loss in Iowa City, hold one of those 63. Thirty-two of those are automatic qualifiers, the other 31 at-larges. That leaves five at-large bids available, for which there are 17 teams on my radar: Arizona State; Arkansas; Boise State; BYU; Clemson; Dayton; Georgetown; Illinois; Indiana State; Ole Miss; Providence; Purdue; Saint Mary's; SMU; Southern Miss; Stanford; and Tennessee.

Here's a thumbnail look at each of the 17 teams. We'll include their RPI, record vs. DI opponents, overall strength of schedule, road/neutral record, records vs. the RPI top 50 and 100, and their best RPI win to date. Bubble teams are listed in order by RPI. In addition, for comparative purposes I'll include the Gophers' numbers.

17 for 5

#39. Southern Miss (14-3): 133 SOS, 8-3 road/neutral, 1-1 vs. top 50, 4-1 vs. top 100, best win @ #49 NDSU

#40 BYU (12-7): 15 SOS, 5-6 R/N, 1-4 top 50, 3-4 top 100, vs. #44 Texas

#45. SMU (14-4): 101 SOS, 5-4 R/N, 1-3 top 50, 2-4 top 100, #28 UConn

#48. Providence (13-5): 49 SOS, 4-4 R/N, 1-3 top 50, 4-4 top 100, #15 Creighton

#50. Dayton (13-5): 62 SOS, 5-3 R/N, 2-2 top 50, 3-3 top 100, vs. #23 Gonzaga

#51. Saint Mary's (13-5): 63 SOS, 3-4 R/N, 1-1 top 50, 5-1 top 100, #49 NDSU

#52. Indiana State (12-4): 132 SOS, 6-4 R/N, 0-2 top 50, 3-3 top 100, #75 Belmont

#53. Boise State (11-5): 52 SOS, 5-3 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 1-5 top 100, #94 Utah State

#54 Stanford (12-5): 48 SOS, 4-3 R/N, 2-4 top 50, 3-5 top 100, @ #27 Oregon

#57 Georgetown (11-6): 43 SOS, 3-5 R/N, 2-4 top 50, 5-4 top 100, vs. #34 Kansas State

#58 Illinois (13-6): 54 SOS, 4-4 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 2-4 top 100, vs. #55 Missouri

#59 Tennessee (10-6): 26 SOS, 3-4 R/N, 2-3 top 50, 4-4 top 100, vs. #24 Xavier

#60. Arizona State (13-5): 98 SOS, 4-4 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 1-5 top 100, @ #86 DePaul

#67 Arkansas (12-5): 82 SOS, 2-4 R/N, 3-3 top 50, 4-3 top 100, #13 Kentucky

#68 Ole Miss (12-5): 95 SOS, 5-2 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 1-4 top 100, #64 LSU

#79 Clemson (13-4): 178 SOS, 4-3 R/N, 1-2 top 50, 2-3 top 100, #18 Duke

#88 Purdue (13-5): 139 SOS, 3-4 R/N, 1-3 top 50, 4-4 top 100, #43 Eastern Michigan

#35 GOPHERS (13-5): 17 SOS, 2-4 R/N, 2-4 top 50, 4-5 top 100, #11 Ohio State

Now that we're past the halfway point of the season, it's time to cobble together a few mid-season lists.

A Dozen Coaches Under Duress

Ken Bone (Washington State) -- Wazzu hasn't recovered since Tony Bennett left Pullman.

Ben Braun (Rice) -- Success at Eastern Michigan & Cal seems like a century ago.

Jeff Bzdelik (Wake Forest) -- Soft non-conference schedule didn't fool anyone.

Anthony Grant (Alabama) -- Once considered a home run hire, he's been more like a Texas League single.

Brothers Bill & Tom Herrion (New Hampshire/Marshall) -- Bill's seat likely hotter than Tom's.

Pat Knight (Lamar) -- A bust at Texas Tech, ditto here. Remember when he called his seniors losers?

Steve Lavin (Saint John's) -- Rooting for Lav, a good dude, but Johnnies shouldn't be winless in Big East.

Mark Montgomery (Northern Illinois) -- Izzo disciple's Huskies simply can't score.

Louis Orr (Bowling Green) -- Got a raw deal at Seton Hall, but it's not getting done @ BGSU.

Craig Robinson (Oregon State) -- Win over rival Oregon last night won't hurt his cause.

Ted Woodward (Maine) -- Worst D-I coach in America. Hasn't won conference tourney game since 2005.

A Dozen Coaches Earning Their Paychecks

Rick Barnes (Texas) -- Nice bounce-back season in progress for retooled Longhorns.

John Beilein (Michigan) -- No Mitch McGary, no problem.

Jim Crews (Saint Louis) -- Following the late and charismatic Rick Majerus is no easy task.

Bob Hoffman (Mercer) -- Bears poised to break through, but Florida Gulf Coast likely stands in the way.

Tony Jasick (Fort Wayne) -- IPFW surprisingly sits near the top of Summit League standings.

Tod Kowalczyk (Toledo) -- Off APR probation, the UMD grad has Rockets rolling.

Larry Krystkowiak (Utah) -- Utes now a tough out at the Huntsman Center.

Lon Kruger (Oklahoma) -- Sooners lost a lot from last year's NCAA team, but Kruger just keeps on winning.

Jim Larranaga (Miami-Florida) -- For my money one of the most under-appreciated coaches in the country.

Kyle Smith (Columbia) -- Gave Sparty a scare in East Lansing, may do the same to Harvard in the Ivy League.

Bruce Weber (Kansas State) -- Illinois tenure ended badly, but this guy hasn't forgotten how to coach.

Mike White (Louisiana Tech) -- NIT last season out of WAC, NCAA in reach this season from Conference USA.

1st Team All Big Team (5 best players)

Keith Appling (Michigan State)

Yogi Ferrell (Indiana)

Gary Harris (Michigan State)

Devyn Marble (Iowa)

Nik Stauskas (Michigan)

1st Team All Big Ten (by position)

PG -- Appling

SG -- Harris

SF -- Stauskas

PF -- Aaron White (Iowa)

C- Elliott Eliason (Gophers)

A couple notes. Stauskas is more of a SG and White is more of a SF, but they're versatile enough where I feel comfortable slotting them slightly out of their natural position. Had a difficult time with two things: (1) Adreian Payne (Michigan State) clearly would be on one or both of these lists, but I can't take a guy who's missed so much time because of injury. (2) Seems like Wisconsin should have someone, but the Badgers are so balanced that no one stands out enough to be placed in the top five.

Big Ten Player of the Year

Appling

Big Ten Newcomer of the Year

Noah Vonleh (Indiana)

Big Ten Coach of the Year

Beilein

Big Ten Tournament Bracket

We're 1/3 of the way through the Big Ten schedule. I think ample time has passed to take our first look at what the Big Ten bracket would look like if the tournament were held today. The Gophers hold the #6 spot. All things considered, who they've played, where they've played, etc., that's not bad for starters. There's an opening to improve that number before we hit the halfway point, with their next three games against Wisconsin (home), @ Nebraska, and Northwestern (home).

First Round (Thursday, March 13)


11 a.m. CST -- #8 Ohio State (2-3) vs. #9 Northwestern (2-4), BTN

1:25 p.m. -- #5 Purdue (3-2) vs. #12 Penn State (0-6), BTN

5:30 p.m. -- #7 Indiana (2-3) vs. #10 Illinois (2-4), ESPN2

7:55 p.m. -- #6 GOPHERS vs. #11 Nebraska (0-4), ESPN2

Quarterfinals (Friday, March 14)

11 a.m. -- #1 Michigan State (6-0) vs. Ohio State/Northwestern winner, ESPN/ESPN2

1:25 p.m. -- #4 Wisconsin (3-2) vs. Purdue/Penn State winner, ESPN/ESPN2

5:30 p.m. -- #2 Michigan (5-0) vs. Indiana/Illinois winner, BTN

7:55 p.m. -- #3 Iowa vs. GOPHERS/Nebraska winner, BTN

Bring on the Red Menace.
 

Field of 68 Projection

The complete projected field as referred to above in RTSS column. ...

FIELD OF 68 (Jan. 20)
America East (1): Vermont (122)

American (5): Cincinnati (21), UConn (29), Louisville (31), Memphis (36), SMU (46)

ACC (6): Syracuse (6), Duke (18), Pitt (20), Virginia (24), Florida State (25), North Carolina (56)

Atlantic Sun (1): Mercer (67)

Atlantic Ten (5): UMass (4), George Washington (23), Saint Louis (32), VCU (47), Dayton (52)

Big East (3): Villanova (2), Creighton (15), Xavier (26)

Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado (163)

Big South (1): North Carolina-Asheville (195)

Big Ten (6): Wisconsin (5), Michigan State (7), Ohio State (11), Iowa (19), Michigan (28), GOPHERS (35)

Big XII (7): Kansas (1), Iowa State (10), Oklahoma State (12), Oklahoma (16), Kansas State (34), Texas (40), Baylor (43)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (128)

Colonial (1): Delaware (83)

Conference USA (1): Old Dominion (183)

Horizon (1): Green Bay (42)

Ivy (1): Harvard (37)

MAAC (1): Manhattan (78)

MAC (1): Toledo (38)

MEAC (1): Savannah State (300)

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State (9)

Mountain West (2): San Diego State (13), New Mexico (44)

Northeast (1): Robert Morris (154)

Ohio Valley (1): Belmont (73)

Pac 12 (6): Arizona (3), Colorado (17), Oregon (27), UCLA (30), Cal (33), Stanford (54)

Patriot (1): American (174)

SEC (4): Florida (8), Kentucky (14), Missouri (55), Arkansas (68)

Southern (1): Chattanooga (249)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (104)

SWAC (1): Southern U (176)

Summit (1): South Dakota (185)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (103)

West Coast (2): Gonzaga (22), BYU (41)

WAC (1): Utah Valley (150)
______________________________
Last 4 In: BYU (41), SMU (46), Dayton (52), Arkansas (68)

First 4 Out: Southern Miss (39), Providence (49), Tennessee (57), Illinois (59)

Others Considered: Indiana State (50), Saint Mary's (51), Boise State (53), Georgetown (58), Arizona State (60), Ole Miss (66), Clemson (74), Purdue (88)
 


Thanks. If the Gophers can knock off the Badgers on Wednesday, their resume would be set up nicely for the rest of the season. Big, big, big game because a win gives them a chance to go 6-3 in the first half of the conference season, and I think the first half of the schedule is the more difficult half.
 

Thanks. If the Gophers can knock off the Badgers on Wednesday, their resume would be set up nicely for the rest of the season. Big, big, big game because a win gives them a chance to go 6-3 in the first half of the conference season, and I think the first half of the schedule is the more difficult half.

Safe to say the Gophers seem the safest of the bubblers right now, no?
 


Safe to say the Gophers seem the safest of the bubblers right now, no?

Agree. I don't think they're in any immediate danger at this point.

Easily among the Big Ten's other bubblers (Illinois, Indiana, Purdue), the Gophers hold a distinct advantage. They can increase that 10-fold by beating another RPI top-25 opponent (actually #5) like the Badgers.
 

Agree. I don't think they're in any immediate danger at this point.

Easily among the Big Ten's other bubblers (Illinois, Indiana, Purdue), the Gophers hold a distinct advantage. They can increase that 10-fold by beating another RPI top-25 opponent (actually #5) like the Badgers.

I'd like the Michigan game back about now. It was in the grasp, at home, and they were short handed. Continuing on my mantra of much better feel this year than in previous years, they still need to take care of business against the slugs of the conference and do the job at home, but I don't have the worries of previous seasons when I wondered which team would show up in those "winnable" games.
 

Given FSUs high (and highly dubious) RPI the Gophers now have two victories better than the best win for most of the bubblers as well.
 

SS, you never fail to amaze me at your prognostications, and you do, indeed, add to the mystique and excitement as we move onward and upward.

I would make Coach of the Year a choice of two, however, based on year to-date results:

"Big Ten Coach of the Year

Beilein"
Pitino
 



Thanks for the article Selection Sunday.

I wanted to ask you about Mick Cronin? That little guy has a team that refuses to give up points. In 19 games they've allowed their opponent to get to 60 just 5 times, has the Bearcats on a 10 game win streak. He had to be knocking on the door of your "A Dozen Coaches Earning Their Paycheck" category?

Get that W Wednesday! I think they can do it.
 

Great info, thanks SS. Beating Wiscy will make the tricky road game in Lincoln far less stressful.
 

Missing Marquette from your list of potential tourney-dancers and missing Marquette alum Brian Wardle from your list of paycheck earnings (UWGB). :)
 

What conference record puts ohio state on the bubble?
 




Really? What's their best win right now Ohio or NDSU at home?? 8-10 and they should be sweating. 7-11 and they are out.

Edit: I do see that 7 wins would bring them to 20 wins and an RPI likely in the upper 40's, but it all depends on who and where those 5 wins come from.
 

Really? What's their best win right now Ohio or NDSU at home?? 8-10 and they should be sweating. 7-11 and they are out.

Edit: I do see that 7 wins would bring them to 20 wins and an RPI likely in the upper 40's, but it all depends on who and where those 5 wins come from.

Best win might be at Marquette. Have also won at Purdue, vs Maryland, Notre Dame neutral. 8-10 they'd be fine.
 

Marquette, ND, and Purdue are all just borderline top 100 wins, doesn't do much for the resume.

I think the point is moot, they'll most likely end up above .500 in conference.
 

Marquette, ND, and Purdue are all just borderline top 100 wins, doesn't do much for the resume.

I think the point is moot, they'll most likely end up above .500 in conference.

We'll see if all three end up as 'borderline top 100'. MU has a good shot at being a tourney team. Ohio State's win at the Bradley Center was the first win there by a visiting team since 2011, snapping the second longest home winning streak in America I believe.. (MU hasn't lost at home other than to Ohio State this year.)

More importantly, if they ended above .500 then wouldn't the point NOT be moot?
 

Missing Marquette from your list of potential tourney-dancers and missing Marquette alum Brian Wardle from your list of paycheck earnings (UWGB). :)

With their #110 RPI ranking, I can't imagine why. Bigger Big East flop, Marquette or Georgetown?
 

With their #110 RPI ranking, I can't imagine why. Bigger Big East flop, Marquette or Georgetown?

MU's RPI certainly isn't 110, but more importantly an RPI at this date on the calendar must be understood (understanding should include that an RPI today means little - it's January).
 

Missing Marquette from your list of potential tourney-dancers and missing Marquette alum Brian Wardle from your list of paycheck earnings (UWGB). :)

Win at Georgetown last night certainly helps. If they get on a roll in the Big East they'll be back in the picture soon enough.

Yep, Wardle is doing a nice job. Glad to see it after that weenie that played for them last year cried to the media.
 


And North Carolina, despite three significant wins (Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan State), continues to try to make it difficult for themselves. Drop to 1-4 in ACC with uninspiring loss @ Virginia. With those three wins all the Tar Heels have to do to make the tournament is stay anywhere near the bubble, but I'm not so sure they'll do it.
 

SS, a couple points that interested me and I'll ask for elaboration from yourself...

* I see that Mark Montgomery is struggling at N. Illinois and it got me wondering about Izzo's coaching tree-am I correct in that it hasn't bore much fruit? Montgomery, Stan Heath, Brian Gregory...who am I missing? It's surprising to me that his former assistants have struggled to establish themselves.

* Mike White from La Tech seems likely to be this year's Pitino or Enfield, even without tourney success. If I remember correctly when his name popped up around the Gophers' search last year, he has a pretty connected father, am I right?
 

SS, a couple points that interested me and I'll ask for elaboration from yourself...

* I see that Mark Montgomery is struggling at N. Illinois and it got me wondering about Izzo's coaching tree-am I correct in that it hasn't bore much fruit? Montgomery, Stan Heath, Brian Gregory...who am I missing? It's surprising to me that his former assistants have struggled to establish themselves.

Tom Crean.
 

Agree Coolhand. Izzo's tree, like Coach K's, hasn't really done that well other than "Clapping & Pacing Maniac" Crean. The ones you mention, plus Doug Wojcik (Tulsa, now College of Charleston) haven't done anything special, though Heath has done a lot more than he gets credit for. ... Elite 8 appearance at Kent State, a pair of NCAAs at Arkansas before getting canned, Round of 32 appearance @ USF that included 2 NCAA tourney wins (First 4). Gregory (Dayton, Georgia Tech) has probably been the biggest disappointment. He made it to the Round of 32 @ Dayton, but that's about it; pretty blah at Tech so far, too.

For Coach K, Mike Brey has been really good during the regular season at Notre Dame, but he can't win in the postseason. Am I missing anyone else? Collins at Northwestern TBD, Dawkins at Stanford nothing special, Henderson at Delaware was a bust, Capel had some success at VCU, but left a dumpster fire at Oklahoma.
 

SS, you never fail to amaze me at your prognostications, and you do, indeed, add to the mystique and excitement as we move onward and upward.

I would make Coach of the Year a choice of two, however, based on year to-date results:

"Big Ten Coach of the Year

Beilein"
Pitino

Izzo would be in there, too. Hobbled or no Payne for most of the Big Ten season, yet (so far) it hasn't resulted in any losses.
 

Izzo would be in there, too. Hobbled or no Payne for most of the Big Ten season, yet (so far) it hasn't resulted in any losses.

Fran McCaffery has to be in the mix, as well. He has a team that was moribund when he took over four years ago and now ranked #9 in the nation and as of now contending for the league title (IA hasn't won a Big Ten title since 1979!).
 

Lotta' good candidates, certainly. It is impressive what McCaffery has done in just 4 short years. It'll all shake out in the next 7 weeks.
 

MU's RPI certainly isn't 110, but more importantly an RPI at this date on the calendar must be understood (understanding should include that an RPI today means little - it's January).

It was #110 per yahoo last night, before the Georgetown win. In any case, I'm sure no one really wants to discuss the minutae of your favorite team here.
 




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