2025 NFL Circa Survivor Pool

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

Just listened to an incredible podcast on Survivor pools, really eye-opening and educational, although it probably only applies to Large pools, and even large pools with big money maybe? Hard to say. The discussion surrounding strategy and Expected Value and Future Value as it relates to remaining entries, etc was just fascinating.

These two guys who do this pod won the Circa Survivor contest in 2022; I listen to their pod when I remember to, not always. It's like once a week or something. Anyway, they said for this last week for the Thanksgiving games, they said the math dictated that they HAD to take the Bears to upset the Eagles.

The Bears only had a 25% chance of winning but the VALUE of a surviving entry winning with the Bears was not just more than the value of an entry surviving with the Eagles but WAY, WAY more valuable. The math simply said they had to sack up and take the Bears. They told the other folks that were partners in their entry that if they don't take the Bears that week, they really have no business playing in the contest. It was THAT cut and dried.

It's called Survivor Sweat, it's also paired with a website where you can buy and sell Survivor entries, percentage stakes in entries, etc. For anyone remotely interested, the first 15-20 mins of their Survivor Sweat pod that just dropped talking about the Bears-Eagles selection was absolutely fascinating.

The pod is called Survivor Sweat and the website is also just survivorsweat.com

 

[upnorthkid]

Just listened to an incredible podcast on Survivor pools, really eye-opening and educational, although it probably only applies to Large pools, and even large pools with big money maybe? Hard to say. The discussion surrounding strategy and Expected Value and Future Value as it relates to remaining entries, etc was just fascinating.

These two guys who do this pod won the Circa Survivor contest in 2022; I listen to their pod when I remember to, not always. It's like once a week or something. Anyway, they said for this last week for the Thanksgiving games, they said the math dictated that they HAD to take the Bears to upset the Eagles.

The Bears only had a 25% chance of winning but the VALUE of a surviving entry winning with the Bears was not just more than the value of an entry surviving with the Eagles but WAY, WAY more valuable. The math simply said they had to sack up and take the Bears. They told the other folks that were partners in their entry that if they don't take the Bears that week, they really have no business playing in the contest. It was THAT cut and dried.

It's called Survivor Sweat, it's also paired with a website where you can buy and sell Survivor entries, percentage stakes in entries, etc. For anyone remotely interested, the first 15-20 mins of their Survivor Sweat pod that just dropped talking about the Bears-Eagles selection was absolutely fascinating.

The pod is called Survivor Sweat and the website is also just survivorsweat.com

that's interesting given Chicago plays Cleveland later but suppose it also not wanting to always be on the team everyone else will be taking (I'd assume most anyone who has chicago left that week will take them). would envision there's quite a bit of strategy as well if you have multiple entries in how you split them too as you get down the stretch (like the guy with 5 entries left out of 49 you have posted above)

never done a survivor pool for money. maybe next year but i don't stay super up to date on the NFL compared to other leagues so would probably be throwing money away ha.

 

[TNGophfan]

Just listened to an incredible podcast on Survivor pools, really eye-opening and educational, although it probably only applies to Large pools, and even large pools with big money maybe? Hard to say. The discussion surrounding strategy and Expected Value and Future Value as it relates to remaining entries, etc was just fascinating.

These two guys who do this pod won the Circa Survivor contest in 2022; I listen to their pod when I remember to, not always. It's like once a week or something. Anyway, they said for this last week for the Thanksgiving games, they said the math dictated that they HAD to take the Bears to upset the Eagles.

The Bears only had a 25% chance of winning but the VALUE of a surviving entry winning with the Bears was not just more than the value of an entry surviving with the Eagles but WAY, WAY more valuable. The math simply said they had to sack up and take the Bears. They told the other folks that were partners in their entry that if they don't take the Bears that week, they really have no business playing in the contest. It was THAT cut and dried.

It's called Survivor Sweat, it's also paired with a website where you can buy and sell Survivor entries, percentage stakes in entries, etc. For anyone remotely interested, the first 15-20 mins of their Survivor Sweat pod that just dropped talking about the Bears-Eagles selection was absolutely fascinating.

The pod is called Survivor Sweat and the website is also just survivorsweat.com

Interesting. Thanks.

I'm on the Buc's this week. If I survive, its Niners week next week.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

that's interesting given Chicago plays Cleveland later but suppose it also not wanting to always be on the team everyone else will be taking (I'd assume most anyone who has chicago left that week will take them). would envision there's quite a bit of strategy as well if you have multiple entries in how you split them too as you get down the stretch (like the guy with 5 entries left out of 49 you have posted above)

never done a survivor pool for money. maybe next year but i don't stay super up to date on the NFL compared to other leagues so would probably be throwing money away ha.

Interesting. Thanks.

I'm on the Buc's this week. If I survive, its Niners week next week.

Good luck with the Bucs! I've seen projections of near 50% of the field(s) on Tampa this week, with Cleveland (hosting the Titans) as the second most likely. They are saying 12% of folks likely taking Cleveland, I suspect that number will be higher than that. Even with Tampa available, I'd be giving some serious consideration to Cleveland (although in my last entry that got knocked out, I had already used Cleveland).

Again, that strategy of the Bears for last Thur/Fri's separate week; I'm sure that was specific to the Circa contest, factoring in the remaining entries, the pool value, etc. That is most definitely NOT a strategy you are employing in Week 4, taking a 6-7 pt underdog.

I thought I had heard the name before; that guy with the 5 remaining entries, out of 45, is a professional poker player, Galen Hall. There are a lot of professional poker players that play the Circa contest(s), they have that kind of money and they approach it more from an odds and probability, Expected Value and Future Value, etc standpoint than they do from a purely "team with the best chance to win" standpoint.

As an engineer, I find the math in it fascinating, as well as the strategy, and I think next year I will employ a lot more of that, at least with one or two entries anyway.

 

[TNGophfan]

Good luck with the Bucs! I've seen projections of near 50% of the field(s) on Tampa this week, with Cleveland (hosting the Titans) as the second most likely. They are saying 12% of folks likely taking Cleveland, I suspect that number will be higher than that. Even with Tampa available, I'd be giving some serious consideration to Cleveland (although in my last entry that got knocked out, I had already used Cleveland).

Again, that strategy of the Bears for last Thur/Fri's separate week; I'm sure that was specific to the Circa contest, factoring in the remaining entries, the pool value, etc. That is most definitely NOT a strategy you are employing in Week 4, taking a 6-7 pt underdog.

I thought I had heard the name before; that guy with the 5 remaining entries, out of 45, is a professional poker player, Galen Hall. There are a lot of professional poker players that play the Circa contest(s), they have that kind of money and they approach it more from an odds and probability, Expected Value and Future Value, etc standpoint than they do from a purely "team with the best chance to win" standpoint.

As an engineer, I find the math in it fascinating, as well as the strategy, and I think next year I will employ a lot more of that, at least with one or two entries anyway.

Browns were team #2 for me this week if, for example, Mayfield was out. You never know, of course, but sleep better with Bucs than Browns. Last good week for picking Bucs.
Going forward, looking at teams playing Titans, Raiders, Jets or Saints.
Week 17 could be a tough pick.