2025 NFL Circa Survivor Pool

[Slim Tubby]

Atlanta would be almost interesting this week; on the road against a pretty bad Carolina team. Carolina closing the final score against Arizona last week the same way the Saints did against Arizona in Week 1 doesn't exactly impress me.

I hadn't looked at Atlanta because one source I look at for info shows the game as almost 50-50, but another I looked at today showed Atlanta as a much stronger Win Chance. Atlanta SHOULD take care of business, but another general rule of thumb a lot of Survivor experts follow is avoiding Division games if possible. I agree with that too, familiarity between the teams tends to make the games always pretty close.

Excellent point about trying to avoid games within the Division. As for ATL, they made my top 5 for the week but I really need to see more from them to see if they're a legit team.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

Looks like most of the picks in Circa are in (I'm waiting another day, see how some injuries shake out). Nothing SUPER surprising but this is what it looks like now:

Seattle. 38% entries
Buffalo. 16%
Tampa. 13%
Green Bay. 13%
Atlanta. 8%

And a bunch of others. The Atlanta is interesting, like I mentioned earlier I was considering them, but damn Atlanta has a bunch of injuries.

Right now I'm leaning two entries for Seattle and two entries for Tampa Bay, and next week going Buffalo all four entries, not even thinking about it.

 

[upnorthkid]

Miami may pull off the first big upset and show why you avoid divisional Games. May be a fun finish coming up

Tua does a Tua and the bills hang on

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

Miami may pull off the first big upset and show why you avoid divisional Games. May be a fun finish coming up

Tua does a Tua and the bills hang on

It wasn't Buffalo tonight, but the carnage is coming. Gotta believe one or more of these big favorites is going down soon, wiping out all kinds of Survivor folks. Hard to believe it hasn't happened already. Dallas losing last week was about as close as we've come so far

 

[Slim Tubby]

Miami may pull off the first big upset and show why you avoid divisional Games. May be a fun finish coming up

Tua does a Tua and the bills hang on

Three (3) weeks in the books for me. Three (3) wins. Three (3) completely unexpected and unnecessary sweats.

My confidence in my decision-making moving forward isn't exactly soaring at this point but I still get to make a selection for Week 4.

 

[upnorthkid]

I unfortunately don't have access to somewhere to play but it seems that many of my picks would've been the same. Joy so far is your sweats at least ended up winners and that's all that matters.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

Three (3) weeks in the books for me. Three (3) wins. Three (3) completely unexpected and unnecessary sweats.

My confidence in my decision-making moving forward isn't exactly soaring at this point but I still get to make a selection for Week 4.

I'm inordinately nervous and concerned this week, despite having what I think are good matchups. Fingers crossed. Advance this week and sleep like a baby knowing that next week I can take Buffalo in every single entry in what appears to be the most lopsided matchup on the NFL calendar this year

 

[Slim Tubby]

The only teams available to me this week that I feel good about are DET and LAC. Dart could provide a spark for the NYG but the Chargers have been strong on both sides of the ball.

Week 1 - WAS
Week 2 - DAL
Week 3 - BUF
Week 4 - LAC

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Three (3) weeks in the books for me. Three (3) wins. Three (3) completely unexpected and unnecessary sweats.

My confidence in my decision-making moving forward isn't exactly soaring at this point but I still get to make a selection for Week 4.

 

[Slim Tubby]

My future: "Where did it go?"

My reality: "Right in the lumber yard, Danny."

 

[upnorthkid]

The only teams available to me this week that I feel good about are DET and LAC. Dart could provide a spark for the NYG but the Chargers have been strong on both sides of the ball.

Week 1 - WAS
Week 2 - DAL
Week 3 - BUF
Week 4 - LAC

this is a really bad first spot for Dart. A super aggressive, talented defense and a chargers team that should score.

 

[Slim Tubby]

The only teams available to me this week that I feel good about are DET and LAC. Dart could provide a spark for the NYG but the Chargers have been strong on both sides of the ball.

Week 1 - WAS
Week 2 - DAL
Week 3 - BUF
Week 4 - LAC

 

[upnorthkid]

League is so all over the place this year

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

The only teams available to me this week that I feel good about are DET and LAC. Dart could provide a spark for the NYG but the Chargers have been strong on both sides of the ball.

Week 1 - WAS
Week 2 - DAL
Week 3 - BUF
Week 4 - LAC

Not a LOT of carnage this week so far, but there was some; most notably, Slim going down with the Chargers to the rookie in New York. I haven't double-checked but I'm almost certain that a TIE in Survivor (at least Circa Survivor) is counted as a LOSS so I rejoiced tremendously when the Packers merely tied the lowly Cowboys, in Lambeau

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

The only teams available to me this week that I feel good about are DET and LAC. Dart could provide a spark for the NYG but the Chargers have been strong on both sides of the ball.

Week 1 - WAS
Week 2 - DAL
Week 3 - BUF
Week 4 - LAC

These are my picks so far with Circa Survivor:

Entry #1 Entry #2 Entry #3 Entry #4

Week 1 Denver Arizona Arizona Denver
Week 2 Arizona Dallas Dallas Dallas
Week 3 Seattle Tampa Bay Seattle Seattle
Week 4 Detroit Denver Denver Houston

Feeling good so far, not having used really any of elite teams, burned Denver, Dallas and Arizona pretty much. Problem is, a lot of the people in Survivor so far are in the same boat. Way too many folks still alive.

The carnage has to be coming soon, I just hope it doesn't hit me too damn hard. Looks like about 1/3 of the entries have been knocked out so far in the Circa game. At this time last year I think it was over 80% or more. Good season for the Favorites so far

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

Here's a loaded question this week for Survivor.

Would you actually go with the Vikings this week, against a Cleveland team starting Gabriel at QB against the Flores defense? I'm tempted, but damn, the Cleveland defense could still be the best in the NFL. Decimated Vikings OL, not a great spot.

I agree with what I just heard on VSiN; first team to 10 points wins the game probably.

 

[TNGophfan]

Here's a loaded question this week for Survivor.

Would you actually go with the Vikings this week, against a Cleveland team starting Gabriel at QB against the Flores defense? I'm tempted, but damn, the Cleveland defense could still be the best in the NFL. Decimated Vikings OL, not a great spot.

I agree with what I just heard on VSiN; first team to 10 points wins the game probably.

Wouldn't touch it.

I have Arizona and Indy this week. Hope good luck continues.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

Wouldn't touch it.

I have Arizona and Indy this week. Hope good luck continues.

I have those two, at this point, with Buffalo and Detroit, very much subject to change with injury reports later in the week (despite the Thursday Night Football, my pool's picks don't have to be submitted until 4pm Saturday, PST). I have one entry I'm basically doing almost straight chalk every week, the team with the highest Win % chance.

Arizona scares me a little bit, I've seen them (first hand) lose some terrible games at home in State Farm Stadium. Not only did they lose beast RB1 James Conner to injury a week or so ago, I just read that their backup that they love, Trey Benson, is out as well. And they couldn't run the ball WITH those guys this season so far, so not good. Yes, they should handle Tennessee. I'm debating on heading down for the game.

The Raiders are struggling, but you never know when Geno is going to pull a game out of his ass, like Russ Wilson did a few weeks ago. Again, Indy should take care of business. Those two, Indy and Arizona, are projected to be the most picked teams this week

 

[Slim Tubby]

Here's a loaded question this week for Survivor.

Would you actually go with the Vikings this week, against a Cleveland team starting Gabriel at QB against the Flores defense? I'm tempted, but damn, the Cleveland defense could still be the best in the NFL. Decimated Vikings OL, not a great spot.

I agree with what I just heard on VSiN; first team to 10 points wins the game probably.

I wouldn't touch that game. I would look at LAR pretty hard. They have a good defense and are at home against a SF team playing without Purdy, Kittle, Pearsall, Jennings and Aiyuk.

I think it will be a low scoring game so the margin for error decreases in this type of game. It's also within the Division and SF has owned Stafford lately but I'd feel pretty good about the Rams.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

I wouldn't touch that game. I would look at LAR pretty hard. They have a good defense and are at home against a SF team playing without Purdy, Kittle, Pearsall, Jennings and Aiyuk.

I think it will be a low scoring game so the margin for error decreases in this type of game. It's also within the Division and SF has owned Stafford lately but I'd feel pretty good about the Rams.

I would, but I want the LA Rams in Week 9, at home, against the Saints. And I don't like picking division games in Survivor if I can help it. I'll do it on occasion, but would rather not.

There aren't many better shots for the Colts the rest of the way, other than MAYBE at home next week against Arizona (depending on how Arizona looks this week) and a few weeks later at home against the Titans, who are bad but again, a division game for the Colts-Titans

 

[TNGophfan]

I have those two, at this point, with Buffalo and Detroit, very much subject to change with injury reports later in the week (despite the Thursday Night Football, my pool's picks don't have to be submitted until 4pm Saturday, PST). I have one entry I'm basically doing almost straight chalk every week, the team with the highest Win % chance.

Arizona scares me a little bit, I've seen them (first hand) lose some terrible games at home in State Farm Stadium. Not only did they lose beast RB1 James Conner to injury a week or so ago, I just read that their backup that they love, Trey Benson, is out as well. And they couldn't run the ball WITH those guys this season so far, so not good. Yes, they should handle Tennessee. I'm debating on heading down for the game.

The Raiders are struggling, but you never know when Geno is going to pull a game out of his ass, like Russ Wilson did a few weeks ago. Again, Indy should take care of business. Those two, Indy and Arizona, are projected to be the most picked teams this week

No guarantees in the league. I've used up Buffalo and the Lions in 1 of my 2 pools, so think these are 2 best bets. Keeping fingers crossed.

 

[Slim Tubby]

As for the Colts, I should be a Daniel Jones believer by now but I'm not there yet. Who knows which Geno is going to show up and they do have tons of offense in Jeanty, Bowers, Jakobi and Turner.

Easy for me looking in from the outside.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

As for the Colts, I should be a Daniel Jones believer by now but I'm not there yet. Who knows which Geno is going to show up and they do have tons of offense in Jeanty, Bowers, Jakobi and Turner.

Easy for me looking in from the outside.

Losing starting LT Kolton Miller won't make it easy, but I will not be surprised if the Raiders give the Colts a handful, likely a higher scoring game. I backed off the Colts for Survivor this week. Geno could pull a game out of his ass and I re-ran some of my season projections and it was not hard to make it work without taking the Colts in even 1 entry this week. I'll be cheering like hell for the Raiders to knock out a shitload of Survivor teams.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

I wouldn't touch that game. I would look at LAR pretty hard. They have a good defense and are at home against a SF team playing without Purdy, Kittle, Pearsall, Jennings and Aiyuk.

I would, but I want the LA Rams in Week 9, at home, against the Saints. And I don't like picking division games in Survivor if I can help it. I'll do it on occasion, but would rather not.

And THAT's why I try to avoid picking division games in Survivor. Division games are almost always within 3 pts. Wow. Frickin' San Francisco.

 

[TNGophfan]

Losing starting LT Kolton Miller won't make it easy, but I will not be surprised if the Raiders give the Colts a handful, likely a higher scoring game. I backed off the Colts for Survivor this week. Geno could pull a game out of his ass and I re-ran some of my season projections and it was not hard to make it work without taking the Colts in even 1 entry this week. I'll be cheering like hell for the Raiders to knock out a shitload of Survivor teams.

You didn't believe your own eyes.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

You didn't believe your own eyes.

Shoulda went with the Colts across the board for Circa. Oh well...

The 49ers win definitely blew up the Circa contest this week. They were projecting upwards of close to 20% of entries to select the Rams and it turned out to be over 28%. Going to start getting more and more interesting in the coming weeks, that's for sure.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

I can't remember seeing a team vomit all over themselves in the final quarter or so of a football game as what we just saw in Arizona. Holy f*cking shit.

I lost a Circa entry with that, but happy that 3,151 other people went down with me. That majorly thins the herd.

 

[TNGophfan]

I can't remember seeing a team vomit all over themselves in the final quarter or so of a football game as what we just saw in Arizona. Holy f*cking ####.

I lost a Circa entry with that, but happy that 3,151 other people went down with me. That majorly thins the herd.

God, they really did. Unbelievable. No points in 2nd half. Really ugly. Had them in one of my Survivor pools, but that one gives you 1 buy back, which I will probably use. Had Indy in my big one, so still good there.

 

[Slim Tubby]

I can't remember seeing a team vomit all over themselves in the final quarter or so of a football game as what we just saw in Arizona. Holy f*cking shit.

I lost a Circa entry with that, but happy that 3,151 other people went down with me. That majorly thins the herd.

Mercado dropping the ball before crossing the end zone did nobody any favors. Bud Grant would've shipped his ass to Saskatoon long before the game even ended.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

Mercado dropping the ball before crossing the end zone did nobody any favors. Bud Grant would've shipped his ass to Saskatoon long before the game even ended.

The kid has been sitting behind James Conner and Trey Benson on the depth chart, both of those guys are out injured and he gets his big chance to make in impact and he does that stupid shit. I don't know how on earth this continues to happen, how galactically stupid one has to be.

I almost drove down for the game but dumped my tickets. That would have been a really, really, really long drive back home after watching the Cards shit the bed.

What's worse is it's a continuation of what the Cardinals have been doing this year; against the Saints and then the Panthers, two terrible teams like the Titans, they were in control early, playing well, and let those other teams make a game of it late. This time it cost them. The Cardinals should probably be 0-5 right now