Western Conference Finals Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder

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Who you got. OKC is blowing out Denver and not looking back. Game 1 is Tuesday in OKC.
 


Wolves certainly have a shot, but if had to bet the mortgage would go with OKC.

We will have to play better. Won't get away with turning the ball over 20 times against the Thunder.

Thunder have a lot of size, Rudy will play more minutes. How will that go?

Would really help if DDV and NAW break out of their shooting slumps.

Can Julius shoot over Holmgren successfully?
 


golf said:
Wolves certainly have a shot, but if had to bet the mortgage would go with OKC.

We will have to play better. Won't get away with turning the ball over 20 times against the Thunder.

Thunder have a lot of size, Rudy will play more minutes. How will that go?

Would really help if DDV and NAW break out of their shooting slumps.

Can Julius shoot over Holmgren successfully?
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They do? SGA is their 3rd tallest player in the rotation at 6'6". Everyone else in their rotation after SGA, Chet, and Hartenstein are 6'5" or smaller.

The Wolves will have a significant size advantage, just like they did in the last 2 series.
 


We match up well on paper but it won't be much of a series if we continue to turn the ball over at the same rate as we did against LA and GS.

Starters:
Gobert vs Hartenstein - Even
Randle vs Holmgren - Edge MIN
McDaniels vs Williams - Edge OKC
Edwards vs Dort - Edge MIN
Conley vs SGA - Edge OKC

Bench:
Reid/NAW/DDV vs Caruso/Wallace/Wiggins - Even

HCA and the Thunder 's consistency on both ends of the court will be too much to overcome unless our bench guys produce above their season averages.

OKC in 6
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
They do? SGA is their 3rd tallest player in the rotation at 6'6". Everyone else in their rotation after SGA, Chet, and Hartenstein are 6'5" or smaller.

The Wolves will have a significant size advantage, just like they did in the last 2 series.
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"Thunder have a lot of size, Rudy will play more minutes.".

Point made was that OKC has more height than our previous two opponents. That will cause Rudy to play more in this upcoming series.

GS two tallest starters were 6'9" and 6'7"
LA two tallest starters were 6'9" and 6'8"
OKC has 7'1" and 7'0"
Even considering the starting 5's of these three teams, OKC clearly with more height.

(LA had Hayes, but he hardly played and was a nonfactor.)
 
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22 nugget turnovers led to 37 thunder pts today
 

golf said:
"Thunder have a lot of size, Rudy will play more minutes.".

Point made was that OKC has more height than our previous two opponents. That will cause Rudy to play more in this upcoming series.

GS two tallest starters were 6'9" and 6'7"
LA two tallest starters were 6'9" and 6'8"
OKC has 7'1" and 7'0"
Even considering the starting 5's of these three teams, OKC clearly with more height.

(LA had Hayes, but he hardly played and was a nonfactor.)
Click to expand...

I still disagree that the 'Thunder have a lot of size', they don't. They are slightly bigger than the last two teams because they have 1 true center. Hartenstein is averaging less mpg so far this postseason than Rudy, so I don't see Rudy's minutes changing significantly.

Chet is not a traditional big man, which is why he struggles with the Wolves size.
 



golf said:
"Thunder have a lot of size, Rudy will play more minutes.".

Point made was that OKC has more height than our previous two opponents. That will cause Rudy to play more in this upcoming series.

GS two tallest starters were 6'9" and 6'7"
LA two tallest starters were 6'9" and 6'8"
OKC has 7'1" and 7'0"
Even considering the starting 5's of these three teams, OKC clearly with more height.

(LA had Hayes, but he hardly played and was a nonfactor.)
Click to expand...

Agree.. OKC ‘s guards are good size as well.. plus Mike Conley is not
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I still disagree that the 'Thunder have a lot of size', they don't. They are slightly bigger than the last two teams because they have 1 true center. Hartenstein is averaging less mpg so far this postseason than Rudy, so I don't see Rudy's minutes changing significantly.

Chet is not a traditional big man, which is why he struggles with the Wolves size.
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The numbers don't lie. See post #7. Agree to disagree.
 

Roland Brooks said:
Agree.. OKC ‘s guards are good size as well.. plus Mike Conley is not
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Correct. We will we have to deal with size, in contrast to the last two series.

Not only that, OKC was #1 in steals forced and #1 in least turnovers committed themselves
Wolves #16 in steals forced and #19 in turnovers committed.

Points per 100 possessions: Thunder 3rd and Wolves 11th
Point given up per 100 possessions:
Thunder 1st and Wolves 6th

However, it is also true that Wolves have played to the level of their competition all season. Perhaps that fact skews stats such as these somewhat?
 
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The Thunder's HCA is real and the calls SGA gets are real. They are a really, really good team. The wolves can win this series but only if literally all eight players play above the norm.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I still disagree that the 'Thunder have a lot of size', they don't. They are slightly bigger than the last two teams because they have 1 true center. Hartenstein is averaging less mpg so far this postseason than Rudy, so I don't see Rudy's minutes changing significantly.

Chet is not a traditional big man, which is why he struggles with the Wolves size.
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Chet plays big defensively with his shot blocking.
 

I was hoping to come on here and read some good news, but seems the overall sentiment so far is something like less than 50/50 optimistic.

Losing in the Conf Finals two years in a row, with a still active "streak" for the state/market, would be a very bitter one to swallow.
 

GopherGrit said:
I was hoping to come on here and read some good news, but seems the overall sentiment so far is something like less than 50/50 optimistic.

Losing in the Conf Finals two years in a row, with a still active "streak" for the state/market, would be a very bitter one to swallow.
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It always sucks to lose the last game of the season, but reaching the conference finals and losing to the best team in the league is nothing to be ashamed of. This season is a major success no matter what happens against OKC.
 

jamiche said:
The Thunder's HCA is real and the calls SGA gets are real. They are a really, really good team. The wolves can win this series but only if literally all eight players play above the norm.
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Yeah, also Thunder set the NBA record for average point differential this season. +12.9 ppg avg pt differential. Breaking the previous record set by 1971-72 Lakers.
As u said, Wolves are likely going to have to play significantly better than last two series.
 

I think they will play better than thelast two series. I agree with the consensus that they play down to their opponents. However, that still may not be good enough.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I still disagree that the 'Thunder have a lot of size', they don't. They are slightly bigger than the last two teams because they have 1 true center. Hartenstein is averaging less mpg so far this postseason than Rudy, so I don't see Rudy's minutes changing significantly.

Chet is not a traditional big man, which is why he struggles with the Wolves size.
Click to expand...
They also have a lot of guard/wing size (and depth). Their “size” is more they don’t play anyone who’s undersized and their guards can switch onto forwards and their centers can switch onto forwards. Makes it that much harder to put the ball to the rim and makes you have to defend better at the rim. Thinks that’s more why Rudy’s minutes are going to be high as you’re going to need rim protection against this team driving the ball, not so much because there’s going to be a bunch of post up play

The two teams have a ton of size and physicality on both ends. It will be a fun series no matter how it goes. Think thunder have the advantage as SGA is a little further on his development arc than Ant and will come down to if Julius can still have take over moments now playing against a better defensive group from a size and ability standpoint. He embarrassed a now too old draymond last series. Way stiffer test starts Tuesday
 

Get Chet in foul trouble. Avoid foul trouble for McDaniels. Big key to success imo.

Mike Conley needs to play a lot. NAW and Donte will have the ball stripped a lot if they are pg's.

Rudy needs to win the center matchup. He will go up against Hartenstein and Chet. Rudy needs to get the best out of those matchups.

Split the first two games.
 

Lot of interesting storylines in this matchup.

Julius has shined so far in the playoffs.
He has outscored Chet 24 - 16 in the first two series. Can he keep that up?

Can Jaden play JWill to a standstill?

Keeps coming back to turnovers of course as well. Thunder aren't a great 3 pt shooting team, other than Caruso. Don't let Thunder off the hook by giving them a lot of easy pts off turnovers.
 
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GopherGrit said:
I was hoping to come on here and read some good news, but seems the overall sentiment so far is something like less than 50/50 optimistic.

Losing in the Conf Finals two years in a row, with a still active "streak" for the state/market, would be a very bitter one to swallow.
Click to expand...
The "good news" is that this thread even exists.
 

Who guarded SGA during the regular season? Did NAW get a lot of action?
 

Just heard a couple interesting stats:
1) With their size and athletic wings, OKC is #1 in NBA in defense at the rim.

Ant has struggled at the rim this playoffs. Will not get easier for him.

2) However, also OKC is last in NBA in corner three pointers allowed.

Should be corner opportunities for Naz and other corner shooters for the Wolves. Need to knock them down.
 

Wolves in 6.

I fully expect the Wolves to win game 1 and I would take the Wolves +7.5 in game 1 and would also bet the money line.
Go Wolves.
 

tikited said:
Get Chet in foul trouble. Avoid foul trouble for McDaniels. Big key to success imo.

Mike Conley needs to play a lot. NAW and Donte will have the ball stripped a lot if they are pg's.

Rudy needs to win the center matchup. He will go up against Hartenstein and Chet. Rudy needs to get the best out of those matchups.

Split the first two games.
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Where are you going to hide Mike on defense then? That’s the crux Finch has to figure out if he wants to keep Mike out there and is part of what hurts to have none of our young guards have taken the next step
 

golf said:
The numbers don't lie. See post #7. Agree to disagree.
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The numbers don't lie, but you're letting one - two players really skew your perception of OKC.

I pulled the average height of each teams playoff rotation. OKC is bigger than the Lakers by .1", and I didn't include Jaxon Hayes.

Average rotation height by team.
Wolves: 6'6.6"
OKC: 6'6.2"
LAL: 6'6.1"
GS: 6'5.5"

I'm sure you could weight this by minutes played and get a better idea of how the height really matches up, but that would make the Wolves even bigger as NAW/Conely play the fewest minutes in the rotation. Hartenstein plays comparable minutes to Naz/Conley.

The Lakers were bigger/longer at the wings than OKC, they just didn't have a center.
 


GopherWeatherGuy said:
The numbers don't lie, but you're letting one - two players really skew your perception of OKC.

I pulled the average height of each teams playoff rotation. OKC is bigger than the Lakers by .1", and I didn't include Jaxon Hayes.

Average rotation height by team.
Wolves: 6'6.6"
OKC: 6'6.2"
LAL: 6'6.1"
GS: 6'5.5"

I'm sure you could weight this by minutes played and get a better idea of how the height really matches up, but that would make the Wolves even bigger as NAW/Conely play the fewest minutes in the rotation. Hartenstein plays comparable minutes to Naz/Conley.

The Lakers were bigger/longer at the wings than OKC, they just didn't have a center.
Click to expand...
You can’t just look at height. OKC has incredible length ( it’s part of the wolves with Jalen And Rudy as well). They’ve got long lanky guards who can switch. Effectively what Chet is as well
 

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