Heads are rolling at PSU


Franklin criticized lack of explosive plays on offense. Poor passing game. We got to do a better job of play calling to get our QB into a rhythm, he said. I know there are folks on this board who think explosive plays aren’t a big factor in wins—and they might not be against teams over which you hold a big physical snd talent advantage—but in close/toss-up games, explosive plays are a huge separator. My evidence: Northwestern, Illinois and Purdue.
 

Franklin criticized lack of explosive plays on offense. Poor passing game. We got to do a better job of play calling to get our QB into a rhythm, he said. I know there are folks on this board who think explosive plays aren’t a big factor in wins—and they might not be against teams over which you hold a big physical snd talent advantage—but in close/toss-up games, explosive plays are a huge separator. My evidence: Northwestern, Illinois and Purdue.
Who are you debating here?
 






I agree with you, but it is what the “analytics” say to do
the "analytics" of it are moronic, however not a subject of uncommon debate. Personally a play where you go for it and don't get it takes all the pressure off the opposing team as it's still a 2 score game, changes your game management, and ignores that the team you're playing against may change as the game goes on (what if their best player gets hurt or tossed and now your play is easier). And actually analytics say later in the game you are more favored to kick (drawing the game out longer makes more opportunities for your opponent to screw up/alter play calling rather than just run out the clock or force you into kicking an onside).


 

the "analytics" of it are moronic, however not a subject of uncommon debate. Personally a play where you go for it and don't get it takes all the pressure off the opposing team as it's still a 2 score game, changes your game management, and ignores that the team you're playing against may change as the game goes on (what if their best player gets hurt or tossed and now your play is easier). And actually analytics say later in the game you are more favored to kick (drawing the game out longer makes more opportunities for your opponent to screw up/alter play calling rather than just run out the clock or force you into kicking an onside).


Also, if everyone played it by the “numbers”
The “numbers” would all change
 



Who are you debating here?
Not debating. A while back, I posted an extensive study of P5 football that looked at many game features, and concluded that more explosive plays than your opponent correlated very highly with winning (73% if I recall). Some real non-believers on GH. But PSU just fired their OC for lack of explosive plays in their key games: OSU and Michigan. And we lost three key toss-up games on explosive plays against us. The PJ/OC conservative offensive mindset wins games we should dominate. And in most years, it wins some toss ups and losses some toss ups. But in this year it lost the key toss-ups (because the correlative element of PJ’s conservative offense is a dominant defense—-oops).
 


Not debating. A while back, I posted an extensive study of P5 football that looked at many game features, and concluded that more explosive plays than your opponent correlated very highly with winning (73% if I recall). Some real non-believers on GH. But PSU just fired their OC for lack of explosive plays in their key games: OSU and Michigan. And we lost three key toss-up games on explosive plays against us. The PJ/OC conservative offensive mindset wins games we should dominate. And in most years, it wins some toss ups and losses some toss ups. But in this year it lost the key toss-ups (because the correlative element of PJ’s conservative offense is a dominant defense—-oops).
This year the team won the Iowa toss up, and the Nebraska toss up


I think every coach in the country including fleck would tell you the team that has more explosive plays has a clear advantage


You’re winning the debate though, because nobody disagrees with you that explosive plays are important
 

They scored 5 more points than we did vs Michigan… not gud.

Amusing as that’s the guy they fired Kirk C to get.
Correct. Rumors flying they might try to get Joe Moorhead back.
Which IMO would mean Moorhead never wants to be a head coach again. Because if he left Akron to be an OC that fast why would any mid level program ever offer him again
 



Correct. Rumors flying they might try to get Joe Moorhead back.
Which IMO would mean Moorhead never wants to be a head coach again. Because if he left Akron to be an OC that fast why would any mid level program ever offer him again
apparently they must want to go to winging the ball around 40 times. in spite of being on their 3rd string qb, they're still throwing it almost 2:1 there with some real interesting route trees.

His year at PSU, the talent on that time was pretty unreal looking back on offense.
QB: McSorley cashed an NFL paycheck awhile
RB: Saquon with Miles Sanders as the backup
WR: Chris Godwin and Daesean Hamilton
TE: Gesicki
Pretty damn good if you ask me yet we still should've won the game against them that year
 

I guess Fleck isn't the only P5 coach with OC issues. Franklin changes coordinators more frequently than some people change their shorts. Difference is, he did something about it.
Franklin sure does know how to fire 'em, but if he fires his coordinator almost every year, he certainly doesn't appear to know how to hire 'em. Maybe playing a 19 year old quarterback isn't helping right now. The kid is going to be good, but maybe the kid is still just a kid. He was supposed to be the top rated qb prospect in the nation in his class when he signed with PSU.


.
 

apparently they must want to go to winging the ball around 40 times. in spite of being on their 3rd string qb, they're still throwing it almost 2:1 there with some real interesting route trees.

His year at PSU, the talent on that time was pretty unreal looking back on offense.
QB: McSorley cashed an NFL paycheck awhile
RB: Saquon with Miles Sanders as the backup
WR: Chris Godwin and Daesean Hamilton
TE: Gesicki
Pretty damn good if you ask me yet we still should've won the game against them that year
It always is crazy to me that if we don’t blow that game I think Franklin probably gets let go by the end of the year

That win launched them. And he has coasted since. They already had lost to Pitt that year as well as Michigan. Fans were angry.
 

Not debating. A while back, I posted an extensive study of P5 football that looked at many game features, and concluded that more explosive plays than your opponent correlated very highly with winning (73% if I recall). Some real non-believers on GH. But PSU just fired their OC for lack of explosive plays in their key games: OSU and Michigan. And we lost three key toss-up games on explosive plays against us. The PJ/OC conservative offensive mindset wins games we should dominate. And in most years, it wins some toss ups and losses some toss ups. But in this year it lost the key toss-ups (because the correlative element of PJ’s conservative offense is a dominant defense—-oops).
We aren’t losing the explosive plays stat just because of the offensive mindset. You have to consider what the defense is giving up. Also it’s not like we don’t call plays that could be explosive, we just don’t have many explosive play makers. Yes we run the ball a lot, but is the lack of explosive runs due to conservative play calling? No, it’s due to not having explosive RBs.
 


Penn Stste is good. They are better than any team in the West. But they just aren’t on the same level as Ohio State and Michigan. Their fans are pissed about that. Franklin is throwing his OC to the wolves to buy time with them. It’s a horrible situation that never ends well.
 

Penn Stste is good. They are better than any team in the West. But they just aren’t on the same level as Ohio State and Michigan. Their fans are pissed about that. Franklin is throwing his OC to the wolves to buy time with them. It’s a horrible situation that never ends well.
Their offense should be more than just 5 more points vs Michigan than we scored with all the talent they have.
 

Penn State is currently 2nd in PPG in the Big Ten. Their 2 losses are against the best defenses in the B1G.Screenshot 2023-11-13 083908.pngScreenshot 2023-11-13 084305.png
 

Their offense should be more than just 5 more points vs Michigan than we scored with all the talent they have.
So far no one has been able to score on Michigan. Maybe Ohio State or Georgia will be able to. We’ll see.
 

Franklin criticized lack of explosive plays on offense. Poor passing game. We got to do a better job of play calling to get our QB into a rhythm, he said. I know there are folks on this board who think explosive plays aren’t a big factor in wins—and they might not be against teams over which you hold a big physical snd talent advantage—but in close/toss-up games, explosive plays are a huge separator. My evidence: Northwestern, Illinois and Purdue.
We've had completions of over 30 yds in 6 straight games and have had a pass play over 20 yds in every game this year. Explosive plays are not the problem. Basic plays to move the chains in the passing game are the issue. We settle for FG's too often.

The main issue is accuracy.
 

We've had completions of over 30 yds in 6 straight games and have had a pass play over 20 yds in every game this year. Explosive plays are not the problem. Basic plays to move the chains in the passing game are the issue. We settle for FG's too often.

The main issue is accuracy.
we're 108th in YPP. it is and always has been difficult to move the ball all the way if you are taking 10-14 plays to get down the field minimum. I think that's where the explosives come into play more as it allows you to get away from having to execute on every single down.

I do completely agree that we settle for FGs far too much, and much of that is inaccuracy, though our overall conservative strategy does us minimal favors (the number of runs out of 2nd and 10 for minimal gains is mind boggling this year)
 

we're 108th in YPP. it is and always has been difficult to move the ball all the way if you are taking 10-14 plays to get down the field minimum. I think that's where the explosives come into play more as it allows you to get away from having to execute on every single down.

I do completely agree that we settle for FGs far too much, and much of that is inaccuracy, though our overall conservative strategy does us minimal favors (the number of runs out of 2nd and 10 for minimal gains is mind boggling this year)
The average on our 13 TD passes is 21 YPP. Our passes seem to be explosive or nothing.
 


The average on our 13 TD passes is 21 YPP. Our passes seem to be explosive or nothing.
Average yards per plays is a very bad way to quantify explosive plays.


A better way to quantify would be to count explosive plays.
 

Average yards per plays is a very bad way to quantify explosive plays.


A better way to quantify would be to count explosive plays.
7 TD over 20 yards and 6 under 20 yard.

3 TD's under 10 yards.

129 completions and our long is 39 yards. We have 30 explosive pass plays in 129 passes this year of over 20 yards. 11 are over 30 yards. 30 pass plays over 20 and we have scored on 1/3 of them.

We're 6th in the conference with 30 pass plays over 20 yards. Tied for 5th with over 30 yard pass plays. We are worse in explosive run plays. 11th in run plays over 20 and have 2 carries over 30.

The 4 PAC 12 schools coming in would be 1-4 in explosive plays in our conference at plays over 20 yards.
USC is #2
Wash. #3
Oregon #18
UCLA #21


The zone read run without a QB that can pull and run is the major issue of this offense.
 

We've had completions of over 30 yds in 6 straight games and have had a pass play over 20 yds in every game this year. Explosive plays are not the problem. Basic plays to move the chains in the passing game are the issue. We settle for FG's too often.

The main issue is accuracy.
Throws to the TE to win the game :(
 





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