the "analytics" of it are moronic, however not a subject of uncommon debate. Personally a play where you go for it and don't get it takes all the pressure off the opposing team as it's still a 2 score game, changes your game management, and ignores that the team you're playing against may change as the game goes on (what if their best player gets hurt or tossed and now your play is easier). And actually analytics say later in the game you are more favored to kick (drawing the game out longer makes more opportunities for your opponent to screw up/alter play calling rather than just run out the clock or force you into kicking an onside).
Not long ago, NFL coaches resisted doing the unconventional thing because doing the unconventional thing and failing resulted in the kind of criticism that can get a guy fired.
www.nbcsports.com
“I can’t help but ask, one day many years later, when you find your previous awareness, cognition and choices are all wrong, will you keep going along the wrong…
fivethirtyeight.com