The Matchup With Iowa

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Generally speaking I agree with the idea that you can't "JUST" run vs Iowa. I get it, they'll expect it. But then:

1. Most other teams have expected it and lost to it. This is not a new situation. I suspect there is more to the running game than "people expect it so it won't work".
2. The alternative is passing ... have you seen our passing game? We're going to beat Iowa with THAT?
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
100%.

I hope we throw a bit but for me it's more about when we throw than how many times we throw. I have no problem running on third down and long and punting in this one. Even though the trading punts game is kind of dangerous in this one. Iowa would likely pick up 10 yards on each of those exchanges.
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I agree.

And with all this talk on Gopher Hole about how scary Iowa's defense is, and how conservative the Gopher offense has been, we seem to be ignoring the other side of the equation: Iowa's offense vs Minnesota's defense.

Earlier in the year, people here were laughing at Iowa's offense.
 

RememberMurray said:
"Some throws?" Yes. Of course.

And, yes, Iowa is preparing to stop Mo. So has every other team Mo has faced. Nobody has actually stopped Mo.

The Gophers are not going to suddenly dial up the passing offense against Iowa. Here are some very sound reasons why they will not and should not do that:

— The Gophers offense is based on running and controlling time of possession. You don't change that philosophy late in the season against a very good defense.

— We have one of the best runners in the nation, and he is extremely productive

— Kaliakmanis is inexperienced

— Our receivers are suspect, at best, and have a habit of dropping the ball

— Iowa thrives on turnovers

— Weather: very cold and fairly windy.
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Well, Mo had 30 carries for 102 yards (a 3.4 average per carry) against PSU. While that's not completely stopping him, I think most opponents will take that if the other runners don't gain much and they limit the passing yards. Athan had 175 passing yards against PSU and the team had 340 yards total and 17 points against PSU. That might be enough to beat Iowa if we don't allow blocked kicks and limit the turnovers and short fields but that's easier said than done.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Generally speaking I agree with the idea that you can't "JUST" run vs Iowa. I get it, they'll expect it. But then:

1. Most other teams have expected it and lost to it. This is not a new situation. I suspect there is more to the running game than "people expect it so it won't work".
2. The alternative is passing ... have you seen our passing game? We're going to beat Iowa with THAT?
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Brief, accurate and to the point. Well said.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Generally speaking I agree with the idea that you can't "JUST" run vs Iowa. I get it, they'll expect it. But then:

1. Most other teams have expected it and lost to it. This is not a new situation. I suspect there is more to the running game than "people expect it so it won't work".
2. The alternative is passing ... have you seen our passing game? We're going to beat Iowa with THAT?
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Have you seen teams run the ball against 8 and 9 man boxes?

Purdue, Illinois, and Penn St did not lose to it. Guaranteed that Iowa's D staff have worn out those films nearly bare watching every inch.
 


RememberMurray said:
I agree.

And with all this talk on Gopher Hole about how scary Iowa's defense is, and how conservative the Gopher offense has been, we seem to be ignoring the other side of the equation: Iowa's offense vs Minnesota's defense.

Earlier in the year, people here were laughing at Iowa's offense.
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Iowa will not do anything on offense ... until they get a short field.

That's what they do. That's their winning formula. Just wait. Wait for special teams or defense to give you a short field, then try to score.
 

cjbfbp said:
Well, Mo had 30 carries for 102 yards (a 3.4 average per carry) against PSU. While that's not completely stopping him, I think most opponents will take that if the other runners don't gain much and they limit the passing yards. Athan had 175 passing yards against PSU and the team had 340 yards total and 17 points against PSU. That might be enough to beat Iowa if we don't allow blocked kicks and limit the turnovers and short fields but that's easier said than done.
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YES, Iowa is preparing to stop the run. BUT....

Gophers are very effective in the running game. How would YOU rate the Gopher passing attack?

How do you like the matchup of Kaliakmanis vs the Iowa defense?
 

Gophers_4life said:
Have you seen teams run the ball against 8 and 9 man boxes?

Purdue, Illinois, and Penn St did not lose to it. Guaranteed that Iowa's D staff have worn out those films nearly bare watching every inch.
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Again, the Gophers are not expecting Iowa to be caught off-guard by the fact that Minnesota is a run-first offense.

Should we come out on a 16 degree, windy day against an opportunistic defense and start throwing, because it might surprise the Hawkeyes?
 

Gophers_4life said:
Iowa will not do anything on offense ... until they get a short field.

That's what they do. That's their winning formula. Just wait. Wait for special teams or defense to give you a short field, then try to score.
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Yes. This is exactly why we'll pound the rock with Mo.
 



This will be a war of attrition. Best, toughest, most-disciplined team wins.
 

RememberMurray said:
And with all this talk on Gopher Hole about how scary Iowa's defense is, and how conservative the Gopher offense has been, we seem to be ignoring the other side of the equation: Iowa's offense vs Minnesota's defense.

Earlier in the year, people here were laughing at Iowa's offense.
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Do you not read others' posts? Nobody is ignoring anything. Here's why people are still worried:

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Even with mediocre or downright terrible offensive performances, Iowa can still win or hang in there until the end where anything can happen.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Iowa will not do anything on offense ... until they get a short field.

That's what they do. That's their winning formula. Just wait. Wait for special teams or defense to give you a short field, then try to score.
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They always try to score, they just are able to score more often on shorter fields because their offense isn't very good.

It's not like teams have found any success throwing the ball against Iowa either. I would imagine WI would probably throw the ball less if they played Iowa again. They essentially spotted them a touch down. Purdue came out and threw a ton and it didn't work. They are near the top in sacks, interceptions and touch downs on defense.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
100%.

I hope we throw a bit but for me it's more about when we throw than how many times we throw. I have no problem running on third down and long and punting in this one. Even though the trading punts game is kind of dangerous in this one. Iowa would likely pick up 10 yards on each of those exchanges.
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Biggest key is going to be executing when we do go to the air. Receivers have to hold onto the ball because if it bounces off of them there is a good chance Iowa is going to pick it off. QBs have to avoid making risky throws, would rather see them take a sack as opposed to making the dangerous low percentage throw.
 



cjbfbp said:
Do you not read others' posts? Nobody is ignoring anything. Here's why people are still worried:

View attachment 21879

Even with mediocre or downright terrible offensive performances, Iowa can still win or hang in there until the end where anything can happen.
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Yes. And... how does Iowa do that?

By creating and taking advantage of turnovers.

Iowa's best offense is actually the Hawkeye defense creating turnovers.

Therefore: POUND... THE... ROCK.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Biggest key is going to be executing when we do go to the air. Receivers have to hold onto the ball because if it bounces off of them there is a good chance Iowa is going to pick it off. QBs have to avoid making risky throws, would rather see them take a sack as opposed to making the dangerous low percentage throw.
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I haven't seen the stats, but I bet Iowa is pretty good at strip-sacks.
 

Strengths vs Weaknesses:

Iowa pass defense: STRENGTH
Minnesota pass offense: WEAKNESS

Iowa run defense: STRENGTH
Minnesota run offense STRENGTH
 

RememberMurray said:
I haven't seen the stats, but I bet Iowa is pretty good at strip-sacks.
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Doesn't change the fact that I would rather see our QB take a sack as opposed to making the dangerous throw into coverage.

One thing about the Iowa D is they don't seem to miss when they have a chance to make a play on D, especially in the secondary. Odds of an interception would be much higher than a strip sack.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Biggest key is going to be executing when we do go to the air. Receivers have to hold onto the ball because if it bounces off of them there is a good chance Iowa is going to pick it off. QBs have to avoid making risky throws, would rather see them take a sack as opposed to making the dangerous low percentage throw.
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I'd much rather see the QB throw it out of bounds. Sacks lose yardage, sometimes result in fumbles, and can result in significant injuries to your QB.
 

cjbfbp said:
I'd much rather see the QB throw it out of bounds. Sacks lose yardage, sometimes result in fumbles, and can result in significant injuries to your QB.
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If it's third- or second- and long, do not force a throw. Hand it off and punt. Punts are okay, and live to fight another day.
 

cjbfbp said:
I'd much rather see the QB throw it out of bounds. Sacks lose yardage, sometimes result in fumbles, and can result in significant injuries to your QB.
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Obviously if throwing it away is an option that is preferable to the sack. Talking more about trying to force a throw into tight coverage as opposed to taking the sack.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Biggest key is going to be executing when we do go to the air. Receivers have to hold onto the ball because if it bounces off of them there is a good chance Iowa is going to pick it off. QBs have to avoid making risky throws, would rather see them take a sack as opposed to making the dangerous low percentage throw.
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I agree 100% that's why I keep beating that horse's carcass of throwing early in downs. I know people hate it, but I hope we max protect, have a simple passing game (one or two reads and run) and I hope we are doing it when they don't expect it.

But you're 100% right, if we "hit" on two or three deep passes and they are dropped or the QB misses someone wide open, that could determine the whole game.
 

Iowa wins by capitalizing on mistakes. The win vs. Wisconsin was the classic example. Iowa scores TDs on a blocked punt short field, a pick six, and a long punt return short field. If Minnesota minimizes mistakes and scores a few times, it's game over.
 


Man sure feels like most people are saying play to not lose the game rather than play to win. Hopefully the in game thread sounds the save when pj goes ultra conservative as he does against Iowa
 

RememberMurray said:
Yes. And... how does Iowa do that?

By creating and taking advantage of turnovers.

Iowa's best offense is actually the Hawkeye defense creating turnovers.

Therefore: POUND... THE... ROCK.
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Murray - I understand what you are saying.

But I think you are ignoring the point that I and others are trying to make.

If Mo is running effectively, of course you rely on the run.

BUT - if Iowa is able to stop or slow down the Gophers' running game, the Gophers have to have a Plan B.

If Mo runs the ball 35 times for 100 yards - I will say it flat out - the Gophers will lose the game-----UNLESS they are able to throw the ball to maintain possessions.

look, maybe the Gophers are able to win a 10-7 game where each team has less than 200 yards offense. but I think a game like that plays more to Iowa's strengths.
 

RememberMurray said:
Again, the Gophers are not expecting Iowa to be caught off-guard by the fact that Minnesota is a run-first offense.

Should we come out on a 16 degree, windy day against an opportunistic defense and start throwing, because it might surprise the Hawkeyes?
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I don't know about start throwing.

What I would do, and I suspect Gophers O staff will do, is have a script for the first X plays and it will include a good amount of running plays and hopefully a few play action. This is to gauge who came to play and what they brought to play with, that afternoon.

From then on, we will know how much we need to pass in order to try to win the game.


But mark my word and mark it good: we will not win the game without making a few plays through the air. Will not
 

RememberMurray said:
I agree.

And with all this talk on Gopher Hole about how scary Iowa's defense is, and how conservative the Gopher offense has been, we seem to be ignoring the other side of the equation: Iowa's offense vs Minnesota's defense.

Earlier in the year, people here were laughing at Iowa's offense.
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Agreed MN D beats IA O 1st through 3rd down, but when they trot out Tory Taylor on 4th down they will absolutely flip the field.
 


short ornery norwegian said:
Murray - I understand what you are saying.

But I think you are ignoring the point that I and others are trying to make.

If Mo is running effectively, of course you rely on the run.

BUT - if Iowa is able to stop or slow down the Gophers' running game, the Gophers have to have a Plan B.

If Mo runs the ball 35 times for 100 yards - I will say it flat out - the Gophers will lose the game-----UNLESS they are able to throw the ball to maintain possessions.

look, maybe the Gophers are able to win a 10-7 game where each team has less than 200 yards offense. but I think a game like that plays more to Iowa's strengths.
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Does a more pass-oriented attack by the Gophers play to Minnesota's strengths, or Iowa's?

Everybody is worried that Iowa will stop our run game, and with good reason. If Iowa can stop our run game, we probably won't win. Our passing game is not up to carrying this team. So we'd better run it, and run it effectively.

The game hinges on Minnesota's ability to run the ball. Minnesota's passing game will be a crucial support piece, but that's all.
 
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