Come From Behind Wins

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Dakota2 said:
That would certainly be one element of building a great program. Now you're actually thinking.
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Could you sum up all of the necessary elements needed to build a great program, and then email them to P.J. Fleck?

I hear your statue is in the planning stages. There's still time for your input.
 

RememberMurray said:
I agree.

In order to discuss, it is good to have context.

Today's topic: It appears that the Gophers lag behind their peers in the area of coming back from a double-digit deficit.

This raises several questions:
Just how far behind are the Gophers in this area, and how important in the overall scheme of building a program is it to be able to come back from a 10+ point deficit?
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See my comment (below?) on PJ’s decision to go for a 4th down on our own 29 yard line EARLY in the game. The failed attempt only cost us three points, explained PJ. But it also moved us from a 7 point deficit to a 10 point deficit, from which his Gopher teams have never come back.

So, I don’t think it is critical to have a team that can comeback from a 10 point deficit. That’s fine. But if you have that kind that kind of team, I think it is very bad game management to take a high-risk, thoroughly unnecessary and against-conventional-wisdom chance, early in a game, when the immediate and foreseeable consequence of failure is to gift the other team an insurmountable lead. If you are a team that can’t come back from a 10-point deficit, then don’t cavalierly gift your opponent a ten point lead. That’s my ultimate point.
 

RememberMurray said:
I agree.

In order to discuss, it is good to have context.

Today's topic: It appears that the Gophers lag behind their peers in the area of coming back from a double-digit deficit.

This raises several questions:
Just how far behind are the Gophers in this area, and how important in the overall scheme of building a program is it to be able to come back from a 10+ point deficit?
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Maroon gave us the stats for the other six teams in our Division over the past five seasons. That is context of the highest order.

Would you assume showing a strong tendency to hold a halftime lead to be a positive? I would. Just as I would consider a history of coming back to win a strong indicator of a great team and program.
 


Dakota2 said:
Maroon gave us the stats for the other six teams in our Division over the past five seasons. That is context of the highest order.

Would you assume showing a strong tendency to hold a halftime lead to be a positive? I would. Just as I would consider a history of coming back to win a strong indicator of a great team and program.
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Okay.

So... what should we change, going forward?
 

60's Guy said:
The first way to prevent momentum by your opponent is to make your players aware of its' existence. Change your belief and realize momentum is a real thing.
It happens in sales, it happens on the internet with algorithms, it can happen in a workout program at the gym. on and on and it certainly happens in sports. Momentum is real, it exists.

Take Eagles vs Vikings....Eagles never let JJ get momentum knowing he's the Vikings barometer to feeling good about themselves. There are many things the game plan takes away. If you let the other team do what they want ... they start to feel good about themselves and they ramp up and steam roll you.

The key, first of all, is to realize it is real and prevent it from happening for the other team from a defensive standpoint....it's the why in explaining things. If they get started they are really difficult to shut down. The importance of the game plan has a why...a consequence.

Offense...Mo can't run...we got no momentum...we have no swagger...we hang our heads.

Hard to gather momentum if you don't believe it exists.
If we were aware that momentum is real, hopefully we'd have a plan to find it elsewhere. I think knowing momentum exists makes it easier to develop it, find it, believe you have a chance, come back from no where to triumph etc etc

I coached a lot of games people thought we were toast only for them to be very disappointed when we closed with momentum and a victory.
If you are aware of momentum...you know sports is all about runs...the other team is going to have a spurt against you...aware of it...no panic...okay, back at you we are going on our run now to overcome. It is a major part of in game adjustments. Exploiting weaknesses with an awareness of the effect, the why, the importance. Same for preventing them from doing what they want to do...so they never gain momentum...think Illinois vs Minnesota. Sports performance is hugely mental.
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That's an excellent post. Most here will understand, although perhaps not all.
 

RememberMurray said:
Could you sum up all of the necessary elements needed to build a great program, and then email them to P.J. Fleck?

I hear your statue is in the planning stages. There's still time for your input.
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Fair to say he's not waiting for my suggestions. Also fair to say he would run like Chase Brown if he suspected you were sending yours.
 

Dakota2 said:
Fair to say he's not waiting for my suggestions. Also fair to say he would run like Chase Brown if he suspected you were sending yours.
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He's not?

Well... I guess he's hopeless.

You have clearly outlined the crisis: the Gophers can't overcome double-digit deficits. Now we just need a solution...
 




RememberMurray said:
Okay.

So... what should we change, going forward?
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You have maintained there is no issue, concern, or worry. It's just some stuff with no context, you say. So why in the world would you now ask what should be changed?

If you think there's a need for change, start a new thread and ask for ideas. Gramps has started an excellent discussion just on the phenomenon.
 

RememberMurray said:
Okay.

So... what should we change, going forward?
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I would start by not gifting opponents points early in the game. Don’t go for a 4th down early, on your own freaking 29 yard line, when failure to convert will almost certainly push you from a 7 point deficit to an insurmountable 10 point deficit (Purdue game). Start by making better in-game coaching decisions. Know your team. Play to their strengths; don’t make weird decisions that shift momentum and put your players behind the 8 ball.

Next, work on a passing game scheme that is suited to the capabilities of your receivers (and OL) and builds up your QB’s confidence. Might have to be short passes to keep drives and momentum going. See DeVito passing scheme in Illinois game.

This is a good Gopher team. They’ll win more games. I’d like to see them win the most they are capable of.
 

Dakota2 said:
You have maintained there is no issue, concern, or worry. It's just some stuff with no context, you say. So why in the world would you now ask what should be changed?

If you think there's a need for change, start a new thread and ask for ideas. Gramps has started an excellent discussion just on the phenomenon.
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You proved me wrong.

What is the solution?

Don't go for it on fourth down?
 



RememberMurray said:
He's not?

Well... I guess he's hopeless.

You have clearly outlined the crisis: the Gophers can't overcome double-digit deficits. Now we just need a solution...
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You're weaseling again. The thread is not Gophers can't. It's Gophers have not (5 1/2 yrs). It's surprising to some. Shocking to me considering the talent in those years and the high quality of our coaching staff.
 

Dakota2 said:
You're weaseling again. The thread is not Gophers can't. It's Gophers have not (5 1/2 yrs). It's surprising to some. Shocking to me considering the talent in those years and the high quality of our coaching staff.
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Uh huh. And, the solution is...?
 

RememberMurray said:
You proved me wrong.

What is the solution?

Don't go for it on fourth down?
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I didn't prove you wrong. Maroon did that. But I am going to find a big magic marker and circle the date on the calendar so as never to forget the time you conceded you were proved wrong.

The only thing better would be to come out of halftime tomorrow night trailing 23-13 and winning 27-23. In fact, that's a call.
 

Dakota2 said:
I didn't prove you wrong. Maroon did that. But I am going to find a big magic marker and circle the date on the calendar so as never to forget the time you conceded you were proved wrong.

The only thing better would be to come out of halftime tomorrow night trailing 23-13 and winning 27-23. In fact, that's a call.
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Yeah.

Still waiting for your solution, though...
 

RememberMurray said:
You proved me wrong.

What is the solution?

Don't go for it on fourth down?
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I didn't prove you wrong. Maroon did that. But I am going to find a big magic marker and circle the date on the calendar so as never to forget the time you conceded you were proved wrong.

The only thing better would be to come out of halftime tomorrow night trailing 23-13 and winning 27-23. In fact, that's
RememberMurray said:
Yeah.

Still waiting for your solution, though...
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Start a thread. Lay out the issue as you see it. Ask for solutions. You will get responses.
 

Dakota2 said:
I didn't prove you wrong. Maroon did that. But I am going to find a big magic marker and circle the date on the calendar so as never to forget the time you conceded you were proved wrong.

The only thing better would be to come out of halftime tomorrow night trailing 23-13 and winning 27-23. In fact, that's

Start a thread. Lay out the issue as you see it. Ask for solutions. You will get responses.
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I'm only asking for yours, Dak.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
My post. Nothing about a “crisis.” It is a statistical observation about our team. Maybe it is the “norm” that if you fall behind by 10 point early in the game you always lose. I don’t know. But if it is the norm, it’s something to work on—defensively and offensively.
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It is an interesting statistic but think it is more of a coincidence than anything else. We certainly are a team that is built to play from the front and not come back from behind. But as the Illinois and Purdue games this year showed we are capable of erasing a first half deficit.
 

MNVCGUY said:
It is an interesting statistic but think it is more of a coincidence than anything else. We certainly are a team that is built to play from the front and not come back from behind. But as the Illinois and Purdue games this year showed we are capable of erasing a first half deficit.
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I agree. And thanks for pointing out that the Gophers actually overcame a first half deficit against both Purdue and Illinois.

The media loves to point out streaks, and they are good at digging up obscure ones.

"The Gophers haven't won in East Lansing since (whatever year)!"

When they say stuff like that, I find myself thinking, "Gee, that's a long time! How many games have the Gophers actually played in East Lansing since that date?"
 

MNVCGUY said:
It is an interesting statistic but think it is more of a coincidence than anything else. We certainly are a team that is built to play from the front and not come back from behind. But as the Illinois and Purdue games this year showed we are capable of erasing a first half deficit.
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But neither game showed that we were capable of winning after spotting the other team 10 points.
 

Purdue is down 21 in the first quarter. This see if Brohm is good enough to coach his team back to a win.
 


RogueGopher said:
So, in 4 of the last 7 games when down 10 early they have either tied or taken the lead in the 2nd half. Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that they are capable of overcoming the early deficit, but they are incapable of overcoming the late deficit?
It's also an extremely small sample size but it makes sense that going down double digits, you are more likely to lose than to win.
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I’m just saying that if PJ’s Gophers go down by 10 points at ANY TIME in a game—early, middle or late—we lose the game, so far 100% of the time. If we go down 10 early, we might catch up at some point, there might be lead changes, but we still always lose and the other team always wins ultimately. 100% of the time. It’s a statistical oddity with 5-1/2 seasons now. I’d like to see this trend broken. Hate to see us go down 10 early because … we’ll, never mind.
 

I agree that focusing on the number of times we are down 10 is a weird metric, because winning a game without ever falling behind is at least as good as a come from behind win. That said, I'd be curious to know if we have ever lost one we led by 10. If we are built to play from in front, hopefully we make coming from 10+ down as hard on other teams as it is for us.

Also, at some point if you are ever going to compete at the highest level, you need to be able to win some games against really good teams, and there is a good chance at least one of them will come out strong and get an early lead. It's not a good spot to be in if after falling behind early, you find yourself shrugging your shoulders because we're built to play from in front.
 

BigGopher69 said:
are offense is not designed to come from behind, were a time of possesion RPO team, without the run game we have struggled to throw since we had bateman, johnson, and CAB on the same team
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This is true, but even so, if we had just 1-2 more we would be at or above the college football comeback rate

In pro football only 22% of teams losing at halftime win. In college it’s likely even less.

We aren’t that different than every other college team. In 5.5 seasons we have like 1-3 fewer comebacks than expected.
 

Drake University Gopher said:
I wouldn’t call it a crisis, but it might help explain why we haven’t won the West. A win per season (based on what we see here from other teams), could certainly have changed a few seasons. At least now I know to turn off the game from now on if we get down by 10!
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It isn’t a win per season difference. It is a win every 2-3 seasons

And we may have already have gotten that win by being tied or winning at halftime in a game we could have been losing.


Caring about second half comebacks indicates you’d rather have more wins where you are losing at halftime. I would rather have more times we are leading at halftime.

The problem in the Illinois and Purdue games wasn’t the second half it was the first half.
 

RememberMurray said:
I agree. And thanks for pointing out that the Gophers actually overcame a first half deficit against both Purdue and Illinois.
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Erasing a first half deficit but falling into a second half deficit afterwards isn't something that should provide much comfort. Those both ended as two score games.
 

Luckily, the sample size of being down by 10 pts in a game was pretty small since 2019, then all sudden we have 3 in a row.

It all gets back to a below-average passing game since 2020 on. The Gophs passing game in 2019 allowed them to get back in the game late several times in 2019 including at Iowa (though not enough there).

It's totally possible to run a TOP offense and still have a good passing game that provides the flexibility for quick scores when needed. The Gophs simply don't have that passing game right now.
 

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