Come From Behind Wins

[Gophergrandpa]

I’ve heard that, during PJ’s tenure, the Gophers have never gone down by 10 points in a game and come back to win. Decided to check. I want to preface this piece by saying that I am a huge PJ fan. But … if I got my research right, no PJ Gopher team has ever gone down by more than 7 poibts in a game and come back to win.

The Gophers have come back to win from 7 point deficits several times. In 2019, we were down 7 to Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Illinois and Auburn and won all. In 2021, the Gophers came back to win after being down 7 to Indiana and to Wisconsin. The Gophers came back from a 4 point deficits against New Mexico state in 2018 and against Nebraska in 2020. We’ve overcome 3 point deficits twice—Purdue and Maryland in 2021. Came back from being 2 down against Indiana in 2018 and 1 down against SDSU in 2019.That’s it.

I was surprised by the fact that we led wire to wire in so many of our wins, even several close games I remember as nail biters. Only meaningful “come from behind” wins in the second half of the games were from a 7 point deficit to Fresno State and 6 point deficit against Georgia Southern, both in 2019.

So, in the 5-1/2 years PJ has coached the Gophers, we have never come back to win after falling behind by more than 7 points at any time in any game. Fall behind by more than 7 and it is a loss (if my quick research of game summaries is accurate).

Maybe this is normal, but I think it is statistically odd. I have seen so many big comeback victories, from huge deficits, in college football (including some huge comeback defeats suffered by the Gophers), that I don’t know what to make of this. Perhaps it’s a consequence of PJ’s conservative, strangle-the-clock offensive style. Perhaps it is related to the fact that our defense, though quite good, seems not geared to score points. It’s usually all on the offense.

It will be interesting to see how the Penn State game turns out if we fall behind by more than 7 at any point in the game. If we do, I’d like to see PJ’s team record its first comeback win from such a deficit. A deficit I once thought of as trivial and surmountable. Now I’m not so sure.

Go Gophers!

 

[BilldGopher]

No doubt we are not 2006 Texas Tech nor 2003 Michigan...both teams overcoming historic scoring imbalances to beat Minnesota down to the wire.

Just like the Gophers lose when behind at half-time stat it is reasonable to think we are best when ahead and hold on with defense. That is our modus operandi under PJ Fleck...

 

[RememberMurray]

In order to wrap my head around this, I feel as though I need some context.

My first question would be: how many times have the Gophers been behind by 10 or more points in the Fleck era? If it is a pretty rare occurrence, then I guess I'm not too worried about it.

Second question: how do the Gophers under Fleck compare to other teams under other coaches when it comes to overcoming 10+ point deficits? When any team has a dramatic come from behind win, we hear about it because it's dramatic... and it just may be that it's dramatic and amazing because it's rare.

It's like watching a golf tournament; the networks show highlights, and we see players rolling in putts from 25 feet, and it makes it seem as if that happens often. But if you look at PGA putting stats, the make percentages on tour are actually pretty low from long distance.

Lastly, a comment: why do we Minnesotans always fixate on the games we lose, rather than the games we win?

 

[HitMeAgainIAmStillMoving]

In order to wrap my head around this, I feel as though I need some context.

My first question would be: how many times have the Gophers been behind by 10 or more points in the Fleck era? If it is a pretty rare occurrence, then I guess I'm not too worried about it.

Second question: how do the Gophers under Fleck compare to other teams under other coaches when it comes to overcoming 10+ point deficits? When any team has a dramatic come from behind win, we hear about it because it's dramatic... and it just may be that it's dramatic and amazing because it's rare.

It's like watching a golf tournament; the networks show highlights, and we see players rolling in putts from 25 feet, and it makes it seem as if that happens often. But if you look at PGA putting stats, the make percentages on tour are actually pretty low from long distance.

Lastly, a comment: why do we Minnesotans always fixate on the games we lose, rather than the games we win?

I always hear coaches say the losses hurt more than the wins feel good. I guess we are all coaches here in GH.

 

[RogueGopher]

Last 2 games got down 10-0 early, managed to comeback and either tie or take the lead in the 2nd half.
I'd imagine a lot of times when down 10+ they are down big late in games against teams they didn't really have a chance to beat, or games in like 2017 and 2018 when they just weren't that good to begin with. 2 shutout losses at the end of the 2017 season come to mind.

PJ has a overall winning record at Minnesota, so I'm least concerned about comeback wins. Not getting in those spots in the first place is better.

 

[cjbfbp]

Lastly, a comment: why do we Minnesotans always fixate on the games we lose, rather than the games we win?

That's not limited to Minnesotans.

There's an old joke about this phenomena.

Timmy was an 8 year old boy who had never spoken a word. One day while eating dinner, he took a mouthful of food, spit it out, and yelled "Yuck! This is terrible!"

His parents said to him: Timmy! You can talk! Why have you never spoken before?"

Timmy answered: "Everything was all right up to now."

 

[RememberMurray]

That's not limited to Minnesotans.

There's an old joke about this phenomena.

Timmy was an 8 year old boy who had never spoken a word. One day while eating dinner, he took a mouthful of food, spit it out, and yelled "Yuck! This is terrible!"

His parents said to him: Timmy! You can talk! Why have you never spoken before?"

Timmy answered: "Everything was all right up to now."

Check out the Vikings thread.

The Vikings are 5-1, and would be a #2 seed in the playoffs if it started today. Yet, reading the posts, you'd think the team was 1-5.

In your story, Timmy thought everything was all right, up to now.

But Minnesota fans think everything is dismal, all the time... no matter what the record says.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

Last 2 games got down 10-0 early, managed to comeback and either tie or take the lead in the 2nd half.
I'd imagine a lot of times when down 10+ they are down big late in games against teams they didn't really have a chance to beat, or games in like 2017 and 2018 when they just weren't that good to begin with. 2 shutout losses at the end of the 2017 season come to mind.

PJ has a overall winning record at Minnesota, so I'm least concerned about comeback wins. Not getting in those spots in the first place is better.

I have looked back at all the game summaries (I’m retired!). The PJ-team “predictor” is that when we fall behind by 10 EARLY we lose every time—even when we fight back well, because we have simply spotted the other team too many points too early. Maybe this is true across the board for all football teams—down 10 early means you will lose.

“Remember Murray” asked how often we go down by 10 early. Skipping Year Zero, here are the games in which PJ’s Gophers were down by 10 by mid-2nd Q:
2022: Purdue; Illinois
2021: OSU; Illinois
2020: Michigan, Maryland; Iowa
2019: Iowa
2018: Maryland, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois
We lost all those games.

The 2020 Maryland game was something. We were down 14 in 1Q but led by 4 at the half. We led by 17 in the 3Q(!), but Maryland came back from that deficit to tie and to win in overtime.

All this stuff might be obvious. Fall behind by 10 EARLY and, while the game could be exciting with lots of drama and back and forth, the outcome is preordained. You lose. On the flip side, the Gophers usually win when they go up 10 early.

I am still and will always be a Gopher fan and a PJ fan. But I am a realist, too. PJ’s Gophers aren’t built (or coached) to survive early deficits of more than 7 points.

 

[Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0]

Check out the Vikings thread.

The Vikings are 5-1, and would be a #2 seed in the playoffs if it started today. Yet, reading the posts, you'd think the team was 1-5.

In your story, Timmy thought everything was all right, up to now.

But Minnesota fans think everything is dismal, all the time... no matter what the record says.

Just a theory, but people think because these guys are paid boatloads of money that the offense should score on every possession and the defense should stop the other team on every possession. They forget they play teams that are paid boatloads of money also!

 

[RogueGopher]

I have looked back at all the game summaries (I’m retired!). The PJ-team “predictor” is that when we fall behind by 10 EARLY we lose every time—even when we fight back well, because we have simply spotted the other team too many points too early. Maybe this is true across the board for all football teams—down 10 early means you will lose.

“Remember Murray” asked how often we go down by 10 early. Skipping Year Zero, here are the games in which PJ’s Gophers were down by 10 by mid-2nd Q:
2022: Purdue; Illinois
2021: OSU; Illinois
2020: Michigan, Maryland; Iowa
2019: Iowa
2018: Maryland, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois
We lost all those games.

The 2020 Maryland game was something. We were down 14 in 1Q but led by 4 at the half. We led by 17 in the 3Q(!), but Maryland came back from that deficit to tie and to win in overtime.

All this stuff might be obvious. Fall behind by 10 EARLY and, while the game could be exciting with lots of drama and back and forth, the outcome is preordained. You lose. On the flip side, the Gophers usually win when they go up 10 early.

I am still and will always be a Gopher fan and a PJ fan. But I am a realist, too. PJ’s Gophers aren’t built (or coached) to survive early deficits of more than 7 points.

So, in 4 of the last 7 games when down 10 early they have either tied or taken the lead in the 2nd half. Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that they are capable of overcoming the early deficit, but they are incapable of overcoming the late deficit?
It's also an extremely small sample size but it makes sense that going down double digits, you are more likely to lose than to win.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

I don't think Jerry or anyone else did that often.

Hell most teams don't ...

It's a weird stat IMO.

 

[60's Guy]

I’d say a coach who doesn’t believe there is such a thing as momentum is at a disadvantage.
The awareness to prevent it by your opponents seems like a void.
The awareness and quest to experience the joy of riding it is going to make it less likely to believe as a group it’s possible to rally.

 

[BigGopher69]

are offense is not designed to come from behind, were a time of possesion RPO team, without the run game we have struggled to throw since we had bateman, johnson, and CAB on the same team

 

[RememberMurray]

There seems to be a general feeling here that the Gophers are unable to overcome deficits because of their style of play and their lack of playmakers at QB and WR.

My question would (once again) be: where's the context? Meaning, which teams are we comparing ourselves to when it comes to style of play and ability to pass effectively?

Ohio State?

Alabama?

UCLA?

The Kansas City Chiefs?

To me, the valid comparisons are those with other B1G teams, and especially other B1G West teams.

How does our offensive philosophy, offensive personnel, and ability to pass compare to: Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern?

 

[Dakota2]

I’ve heard that, during PJ’s tenure, the Gophers have never gone down by 10 points in a game and come back to win. Decided to check. I want to preface this piece by saying that I am a huge PJ fan But … if I got my research right, no PJ Gopher team has ever gone down by more than 7 poibts in a game and come back to win.

The Gophers have come back to win from 7 point deficits several times. In 2019, we were down 7 to Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Illinois and Auburn and won all. In 2021, the Gophers came back to win after being down 7 to Indiana and to Wisconsin. The Gophers came back from a 4 point deficits against New Mexico state in 2018 and against Nebraska in 2020. We’ve overcome 3 point deficits twice—Purdue and Maryland in 2021. Came back from being 2 down against Indiana in 2018 and 1 down against SDSU in 2019.That’s it.

I was surprised by the fact that we led wire to wire in so many of our wins, even several close games I remember as nail biters. Only meaningful “come from behind” wins in the second half of the games were from a 7 point deficit to Fresno State and 6 point deficit against Georgia Southern, both in 2019.

So, in the 5-1/2 years PJ has coached the Gophers, we have never come back to win after falling behind by more than 7 points at any time in any game. Fall behind by more than 7 and it is a loss (if my quick research of game summaries is accurate).

Maybe this is normal, but I think it is statistically odd. I have seen so many big comeback victories, from huge deficits, in college football (including some huge comeback defeats suffered by the Gophers), that I don’t know what to make of this. Perhaps it’s a consequence of PJ’s conservative, strangle-the-clock offensive style. Perhaps it is related to the fact that our defense, though quite good, seems not geared to score points. It’s usually all on the offense.

It will be interesting to see how the Penn State game turns out if we fall behind by more than 7 at any point in the game. If we do, I’d like to see PJ’s team record its first comeback win from such a deficit. A deficit I once thought of as trivial and surmountable. Now I’m not so sure.

Go Gophers!

Thx for the work, GG. This is an important thread.

Football fans will recognize this is not a good result up to this point, nor is it normal. There are often multiple lead changes when two competitive teams face off.

When your record has a "never" category, as in never did it, you need to change your best.

 

[Dakota2]

There seems to be a general feeling here that the Gophers are unable to overcome deficits because of their style of play and their lack of playmakers at QB and WR.

My question would (once again) be: where's the context? Meaning, which teams are we comparing ourselves to when it comes to style of play and ability to pass effectively?

Ohio State?

Alabama?

UCLA?

The Kansas City Chiefs?

To me, the valid comparisons are those with other B1G teams, and especially other B1G West teams.

How does our offensive philosophy, offensive personnel, and ability to pass compare to: Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern?

Murr ... Somewhat odd you would include Purdue in your question.

But more to the point, it's not just about offense when coming from behind. Rule One in mounting a comeback is don't let the other guy score more points.

 

[RememberMurray]

Murr ... Somewhat odd you would include Purdue in your question.

But more to the point, it's not just about offense when coming from behind. Rule One in mounting a comeback is don't let the other guy score more points.

How is including Purdue "odd"? They're in the B1G West.

Of course defense is a factor. I agree with you. But the feeling that several posters have expressed seemed (to me, at least) to be about P.J. Fleck's offensive philosophy, and how run-heavy it is, which they seem to believe is a cause of this "can't come from behind" crisis the Gophers are in.

 

[RememberMurray]

Thx for the work, GG. This is an important thread.

Football fans will recognize this is not a good result up to this point, nor is it normal. There are often multiple lead changes when two competitive teams face off.

When your record has a "never" category, as in never did it, you need to change your best.

Not "normal", you say. By "not normal", do you mean it is unlike other teams results?

 

[RememberMurray]

How many times has Wisconsin come back from a 10-point deficit to win from 2017-present?

How about Iowa, in the same time period?

We need to know these things, because we apparently have a crisis on our hands. Just how awful have the Gophers been in this area, compared to their peers?

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

I’d say a coach who doesn’t believe there is such a thing as momentum is at a disadvantage.
The awareness to prevent it by your opponents seems like a void.
The awareness and quest to experience the joy of riding it is going to make it less likely to believe as a group it’s possible to rally.

How do you “prevent it”?

Score more?

I think they know that…

 

[Gophergrandpa]

How many times has Wisconsin come back from a 10-point deficit to win from 2017-present?

How about Iowa, in the same time period?

We need to know these things, because we apparently have a crisis on our hands. Just how awful have the Gophers been in this area, compared to their peers?

My post. Nothing about a “crisis.” It is a statistical observation about our team. Maybe it is the “norm” that if you fall behind by 10 point early in the game you always lose. I don’t know. But if it is the norm, it’s something to work on—defensively and offensively.

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

Wisconsin comebacks of 8 or more since 2017

2017
Utah State - 10 pt deficit
Indiana - 10 pt deficit
Miami - 11 pt deficit

2018
Purdue - 14 pt deficit

2019
None

2020
Wake Forest - 14 pt deficit

2021
None

 

[RememberMurray]

Wisconsin comebacks of 8 or more since 2017

2017
Utah State - 10 pt deficit
Indiana - 10 pt deficit
Miami - 11 pt deficit

2018
Purdue - 14 pt deficit

2019
None

2020
Wake Forest - 14 pt deficit

2021
None

Thanks for your reply. So, 5 total in 5+ seasons. 3 of the five were in 2017.
Mostly against teams Wisconsin was favored to beat, it appears.

How about Iowa?

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

Iowa comebacks of 8 or more since 2017

2017
Iowa State - 10 pt deficit

2018
None

2019
Iowa State - 8 pt deficit

2020
Illinois - 14 pt deficit

2021
Penn State - 14 pt deficit
Nebraska - 15 pt deficit
Illinois - 10 pt deficit

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

Purdue comebacks of 8 or more since 2017

2017
Minnesota - 8 pt deficit

2018
None

2019
Nebraska - 10 pt deficit
Northwestern - 14 pt deficit

2020
None

2021
Tennessee - 14 pt deficit

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

Northwestern comebacks of 8 or more since 2017

2017
Nevada - 10 pt deficit

2018
Nebraska - 14 pt deficit
Utah - 17 pt deficit

2019
None

2020
Iowa - 17 pt deficit

2021
None

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

Illinois comebacks of 8 or more since 2017

2017
None

2018
Kent State - 14 pt deficit

2019
UConn - 13 pt deficit
Wisconsin - 13 pt deficit
Michigan St - 25 pt deficit

2020
Rutgers - 10 pt deficit

2021
PSU - 10 pt deficit

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

Nebraska comebacks of 8 or more since 2017

2017
Purdue - 8 pt deficit

2018
None

2019
Illinois - 14 pt deficit

2020
None

2021
None

2022
Rutgers - 13 pt deficit

 

[BigTenGuy]

Iowa comebacks of 8 or more since 2017

2017
Iowa State - 10 pt deficit

2018
None

2019
Iowa State - 8 pt deficit

2020
Illinois - 14 pt deficit

2021
Penn State - 14 pt deficit
Nebraska - 15 pt deficit

10-point deficit at any time during game? If so, Iowa 2021 edit: Down 10-0 early to Illinois, Iowa wins 33-23. Iowa/Purdue wr Charlie Jones with the kickoff return for a TD flipped the momentum.

Also, appreciate these stats for the various teams. Lots of work.

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

10-point deficit at any time during game? If so, Iowa 2021 edit: Down 10-0 early to Illinois, Iowa wins 33-23. Iowa/Purdue wr Charlie Jones with the kickoff return for a TD flipped the momentum.

Also, appreciate these stats for the various teams. Lots of work.

Updated. I wonder if there were more of those I spaced on. Hopefully ESPN score trackers were all accurate too.

Ultimately, these mean little to nothing. Maybe it shows a teams confidence in fighting back. Maybe some teams were slow starters. I dont think there's much more to really read into it. Teams with great defenses may rarely ever get down much. Some offenses based on controlling the ball may not have the firepower to comeback. However, it does show how seasons can go from average to good or great.

Wisconsin 2017 with 3 comeback wins. If they blow an early season game, their 13-1 season could have been a 9 win depending on team morale. Their team this year seems to have that residual effect from early losses.

Iowa 2021 with 3 comeback wins. Lose any of those and MN possibly goes to the B1G championship game. Lose any/all of those and that season looks much different. Maybe the OC's seat isn't just on fire this year, but actually melting.

Illinois with 3 comeback wins. If they lose those, Lovie is probably canned and they possibly don't hire Bielema and their current trajectory goes down further.