Forde: B1G advising members it's still possible there will be no season

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I have a feeling that this is what they're watching, on pins and needles:

5JZgwv5.png
 

I don't think that deaths are the key stat. The odds are still very low that a young, healthy athlete will die from covid. The issue is positive cases.

Look at what is happening in MLB. The Commissioner is threatening to suspend the season if more teams have positive cases.

the issues in college football-
1. how to conduct (and report) regular testing for up to 100 players on a team
2. need to get test results back in a timely fashion
3. the Big One - how will teams handle positive tests in terms of quarantines, contact tracing, etc.
And how long will a player with a positive test have to sit out.

Imagine being a coach, and not knowing from week to week - or even from day to day - how many members of your team will be available to practice or play. or finding out on Friday that X# of players can't play and having to juggle the lineups.

Add that to the travel and lodging issues - unless you fly all teams in and out on game day - another logistical hurdle.

as of today, I would put the odds of having a college football season at about 20% - and that might be generous.
 

Deaths is the "best" indicator of the true state of infections in the country (with a 2,3,4 week lag). Number of active cases is always going to be dependent on testing capacity/ability/funding/political will.

Is the true number of infections right now 2x, 5x, 10x, 20x what the daily number of reported cases is?? We have no idea.
 

Their decisions should be based on projections for the near and intermediate future. Deaths are a lagging indicator, and the reporting isn’t at all timely. I prefer hospitalizations. It’s the only “real time” number we have.

 




The other thing, that some are worried about, is when the flu season hits this fall. If you have the flu, will you then be more susceptible to severe symptoms or death from covid?

No one knows for sure yet.

I don't think that fear would be enough to cancel an attempt at having fall football, but it might contribute to calling off the season before it finishes.


We will see. As was said before, I do believe they're going to try it. Just hope no one dies or suffers greatly because it.
 

Hospitalizations is what I pay attention to also. Still imperfect but seems to give a decent sense of current reality...kind-of...

Oh, did folks notice we will soon be notified of the existance of non-earth based manufactured materials? And not from meteorites...

Sounds about right for 2020...

1596304643880.png
 



PitinoFan said:
Their decisions should be based on projections for the near and intermediate future. Deaths are a lagging indicator, and the reporting isn’t at all timely. I prefer hospitalizations. It’s the only “real time” number we have.

Click to expand...
Except that hospitalizations include those that got it while in the hospital or nursing facility and are still there. That is a huge number, as our hospital and nursing facility employees are the biggest spreaders of the disease within institutions.

The key is how many positive cases and how many are not hospitalized or die. That's the key.

as of today:

USA
4,542,579
TOTAL CASES
CDC | Updated: Aug 1 2020 12:15PM

USA
152,870
TOTAL DEATHS (3.36 %)
CDC | Updated: Aug 1 2020 12:15PM

USA
1,386
Cases per 100,000 People (1.386%)
CDC | Updated: Aug 1 2020 12:15PM

Nursing Homes:

TOTAL COVID-19 CONFIRMED CASES
152,281

TOTAL COVID-19 SUSPECTED CASES
96,648

TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS
40,273



So, how do you want to live?
 
Last edited:

highwayman said:
Except that hospitalizations include those that got it while in the hospital or nursing facility and are still there. That is a huge number, as our hospital and nursing facility employees are the biggest spreaders of the disease within institutions.

The key is how many positive cases and how many are not hospitalized or die. That's the key.

as of today:

USA
4,542,579
TOTAL CASES
CDC | Updated: Aug 1 2020 12:15PM

USA
152,870
TOTAL DEATHS (3.36 %)
CDC | Updated: Aug 1 2020 12:15PM

USA
1,386
Cases per 100,000 People (1.386%)
CDC | Updated: Aug 1 2020 12:15PM

Annual Death - Statistics & Facts
Published by Statista Research Department

So, how do you want to live?
Click to expand...

I’m not sure I follow. I can read those stats, but what do you think they mean, in relation to what we’re taking about?
 

We need this here...

apnews.com

Thousands protest in Berlin against coronavirus restrictions

BERLIN (AP) — Thousands protested Germany's coronavirus restrictions Saturday in a Berlin demonstration marking what organizers called “the end of the pandemic” — a declaration that comes just as authorities are voicing increasing concerns about an uptick in new infections.
apnews.com apnews.com
 

MplsGopher said:
The other thing, that some are worried about, is when the flu season hits this fall. If you have the flu, will you then be more susceptible to severe symptoms or death from covid?

No one knows for sure yet.

I don't think that fear would be enough to cancel an attempt at having fall football, but it might contribute to calling off the season before it finishes.


We will see. As was said before, I do believe they're going to try it. Just hope no one dies or suffers greatly because it.
Click to expand...

Go hide in a hole you pathetic fear monger.


Thousands Protest in Berlin against coronavirus restrictions
 



Baseball season and summer camps for young people are an examples of what could happen to college football.
An erudite baseball player said that sports are a reward for a functional society and we do not have a functional society.
The fight over something as simple and effective as wearing a mask is a perfect example of a dysfunctional society.
 

Plato said:
Baseball season and summer camps for young people are an examples of what could happen to college football.
An erudite baseball player said that sports are a reward for a functional society and we do not have a functional society.
The fight over something as simple and effective as wearing a mask is a perfect example of a dysfunctional society.
Click to expand...

The virus is still spreading in mask wearing societies. Have you checked Japan lately? There’s no stopping it once it gets a head of steam. If you think locking everyone in their homes for weeks is the answer, you are wrong about that too.
 

PitinoFan said:
The virus is still spreading in mask wearing societies. Have you checked Japan lately? There’s no stopping it once it gets a head of steam. If you think locking everyone in their homes for weeks is the answer, you are wrong about that too.
Click to expand...
Masks aren’t a cure, but they can slow the spread. If it saves even 1000 lives, from now until the vaccine is widely available by Q2 next year, then it’s absolutely worth it to strip away the “freedom” to not to wear a mask, from every American.
 

PitinoFan said:
The virus is still spreading in mask wearing societies. Have you checked Japan lately? There’s no stopping it once it gets a head of steam. If you think locking everyone in their homes for weeks is the answer, you are wrong about that too.
Click to expand...
Masks and avoiding crowds are the only arrows in our quiver.
There is no cure, no vaccine, no test that is readily available and with rapid results, there is little contact tracing and 35% of the poulation is too stupid to wear a mask.
Compare the per capita incidence and death rate in Japan with the USA and you will see how false your statement is.
And when he vaccine is available the same 40% will believe a conspiracy theory that alien cells were used.
 


And there is even more from the common flu. Get a clue.
 

alaska said:
And there is even more from the common flu. Get a clue.
Click to expand...

From the CDC for 2017-2018 which they classified as a severe flu season, unlike last year which had notably fewer deaths.

"The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths"

That's versus 155,000 deaths in 7 months and counting. And you're telling somebody to get a clue? The level of stupidity by the hard core is beyond belief. Make up your own shit; believe the whack jobs that Fox features; take your cues from the guy who is pathetically proud that he can repeat, "Person, woman, man, camera, TV;" and bitch incessantly that the football season is threatened even as your actions are making it more likely that we won't have a season.
 

Plato said:
Compare the per capita incidence and death rate in Japan with the USA and you will see how false your statement is.
Click to expand...

I’m still trying to figure out what part of my comment is false. Help me out. Here’s what I said....

“The virus is still spreading in mask wearing societies. Have you checked Japan lately?”

I don’t know where they will end up, but it appears to be just getting started. I constantly see people claiming, “if we would all just wear masks for 4-6 weeks, we could beat this thing.” I don’t think so. I do wear one, so don’t worry about me.

“
 

PitinoFan said:
I’m still trying to figure out what part of my comment is false. Help me out. Here’s what I said....

“The virus is still spreading in mask wearing societies. Have you checked Japan lately?”

I don’t know where they will end up, but it appears to be just getting started. I constantly see people claiming, “if we would all just wear masks for 4-6 weeks, we could beat this thing.” I don’t think so. I do wear one, so don’t worry about me.

“
Click to expand...


Japan's Okinawa prefecture has declared a state of emergency following a spike in coronavirus infections connected to an outbreak among US forces based in the region.

Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki on Friday announced that Japan's southernmost prefecture, compromising of dozens of islands, will be placed under a state of emergency between August 1 and 15.

www.dw.com

Okinawa declares COVID-19 emergency after US base outbreaks – DW – 08/01/2020

Okinawa has seen a record daily spike in infections in addition to the island's total cases, the majority of which have been traced to US troops based there. The surge has increased tensions among locals and US forces.
www.dw.com www.dw.com
 

The clue you need is that they are counting every death as a COVID death when most are not due to covid
 

alaska said:
The clue you need is that they are counting every death as a COVID death when most are not due to covid
Click to expand...
Pretty early to be hitting the Kool-Aid
Minnesota had 159 Covid deaths in July
 

Over 90% of those cases had 2 or more underlying significant health issues.

Additionally, there is a huge correlation between obesity and COVID deaths. No one wants to talk about lifestyle and how it affects the bodies capability to fight virus’.

Students should be in school. Businuess should be open.

Someone please plain why Target, Walmart, Home Depot can pack people in but we can have people at sporting events or religious events?
 


PitinoFan said:
I’m still trying to figure out what part of my comment is false. Help me out. Here’s what I said....

“The virus is still spreading in mask wearing societies. Have you checked Japan lately?”

I don’t know where they will end up, but it appears to be just getting started. I constantly see people claiming, “if we would all just wear masks for 4-6 weeks, we could beat this thing.” I don’t think so. I do wear one, so don’t worry about me.
Click to expand...
Can't beat it with masks alone, but can slow it.

Japan - 126.5M people - 146k sqmi land area
US - 328.2M people - 3.12M sqmi land area (continental US only, not including Alaska)


And they're freaking out over ~1500 new daily cases. We've had over 50k new daily cases, every day since July 6th.
 

again people - the question is whether there will be a college football season.

So deaths are not the issue - the issue is positive tests. because a player who tests positive can't play.

Look at how the other sports are faring:
MLS - in a bubble - almost no cases, games played on schedule. (Loons kicking butt!)
NHL - in a bubble - very few cases, games starting on schedule.
NBA - in a bubble. a few cases tied directly to players leaving the bubble. (but that strip club has great wings!)
MLB - no bubble - multiple teams with positive cases - multiple games postponed. Positive cases mostly tied to players going to nightclubs and casinos. (i.e. not following protocols)
NFL - no bubble - multiple players not able to report to training camp due to positive tests.

College Football will not be played in a bubble. College football has the largest rosters, and all of the players are young, college-age men.

Seriously - what are the odds that college football teams will show the discipline to follow all the protocols and avoid positive cases? This may be a little off-point, but I still remember Glen Mason the day after Brandon Hall was shot and died in 2002. Mason said, in his post-game speech, he told the players to enjoy the win, but be smart and stay away from situations that could lead to trouble, including certain downtown clubs. These are college kids. no matter how many times you tell them something, some of them are going to do it anyway.
 

It all points to: they're going to try to have a season, money dictates it, but it's very unlikely they'll be able to finish it.
 

MplsGopher said:
It all points to: they're going to try to have a season, money dictates it, but it's very unlikely they'll be able to finish it.
Click to expand...

Yep. It will start, or at least get close to starting, but people won't have the stomach for COVID outbreaks among unpaid athletes. The Pac-12 boycott threat is the tip of the iceberg.
 

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