2020-2021 Lineup Breakdown

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MplsGopher said:
Disagree. He shouldn't anyway. The language of the family hardship waiver is very clear: it's for when an athlete needs to move back (or closer to) home, to take care of sick/ill close family member. Not at all the case here.

Moot point. Confident the DI Council will vote to approve the changes to general waiver guidelines, for first time requests (which is the case for both, here).
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Doesn't matter if it shouldn't happen according to language. Guarantee that Robbins put COVID-19 uncertainty as his main argument, and that he can be around two close family members at the U should things get bad again next winter. Given the toll that COVID-19 took on the NCAA this spring (athletics and academics), their only move is to approve that waiver. I'm very optimistic.

I'm not as optimistic about new waiver guidelines starting immediately. That seems 50/50 to me. There's been reports on both ends about this. The NCAA could say yes to the one-time immediate transfer, but starting the '21-22 season. But who knows. We'll find out at the end of May. I would like Peterson to play right away...
 

T-Bonegopher said:
Pitino has never had a roster this deep with so much length and versatility, assuming all are eligible. Now that he has more bullets in the gun will he pull the trigger on the strategy of pressing more on defense and pushing the pace on offense?
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That would be fun.
 

Urbandale said:
You and I are diametrically opposed on the value of redshirting. I think it's irresponsible and way too old school for the realities of modern college basketball.

Hot take: Freeman plays more minutes this year than Omersa.
Click to expand...

I disagree with you, but that is a hot take. And I definitely haven't given up on Freeman
 

It's fun to dream up all these numbers, and averages ultimately are a somewhat misleading statistic. It doesn't ever add up to 200 minutes at the end of the season because we never have all the guys play a full season, FYI. But we don't have any other sports so here goes. Looking at what Pitino has done historically can be a good guide for understanding how he will manage the roster next year.

Here's a little analysis of the "trusted" players and their minutes over the years. I included everyone at 10 minutes or above. *denotes partial season:

2013: Hollins (33), Hollins (31), Mathieu (30), King (22), Eliason (22), Malik Smith (19), Walker (19), Osenieks (19)
2014: Hollins (31), King (29), Mathieu (28), Mason (26) Morris (26), Walker (24), Buggs (13), Eliason (11)
2015: Mason (33), King (29), Murphy (27), Morris* (26), Buggs (24), McBrayer (23), Konate (22), Dorsey (19)
2016: Mason (35), Coffey (33), McBrayer (28), Murphy (28), Spring (24), Lynch (23), Curry (20), Konate (10)
2017: Mason (34), Murphy (32), Coffey* (32), McBrayer (29), Lynch* (26), Washington (20), Hurt (19), Konate (15), Harris (14), Fitzgerald (13) (we lost Lynch/Coffey for most of B10 season)
2018: Coffey (35), McBrayer (32), Murphy (31), Kalscheur (31), Oturu (24), Curry* (19), Washington (16), Stockman (11), Stull (10)
2019: Carr (37), Oturu (34), Kalscheur (33), Willis (29), Demir (25), Williams (16), Omersa (12), Ihnen* (11), Hurt (10)
  • Earlier in his tenure, Pitino spread his minutes around a little more. The last few seasons it has been more concentrated in a top 5-6 guys. Seems like we should be deeper this coming year but we have never seen him trust more than 7, max 8 guys. So our minutes distribution should reflect that.
  • We have 17 player seasons in the past 7 years (2.42/yr) where a guy averaged over 30 mpg. So we will probably have two guys do that this year (Carr/Kalscheur).
  • I think one thing that is clear is that point guards don't get less than 33 mpg. Seeing how Carr played 37 mpg last year, I don't see him dipping below 33 mpg.
  • The only time a center has seen more than 22-26 mpg was last year with Oturu, so I would expect Robbins to play in that 22-26 range. I'm guessing Freeman gets a sub or two per game, and Johnson also moves to the 5 to get Ihnen some minutes at the 4 when Robbins sits.
  • To get an idea for highly regarded freshman guard Jamal Mashburn, take a look at our other highly regarded freshmen: Mason (26), McBrayer (23), Dorsey (19), Washington (20), Coffey (33), Kalscheur (31). I think 20 minutes is a realistic guess.
  • Peterson isn't a grad transfer, but if we expect him to play...let's take a look at other transfers: Morris (26), Lynch (23), Fitzgerald (13), Stockman (11), Willis (29), Carr (37). A very wide range of minutes for these guys. Stockman was obviously outplayed by Oturu and actually left the team briefly, and Fitzgerald was coming off an ACL tear (or two?). Peterson should see more time than them, but not like a Willis or a Carr. I'm guessing we see him for ~20 mpg.
  • To get an idea for Brandon Johnson, I looked at past graduate transfers Smith (19), Springs (24), Stull (10), and Demir (25). I am guessing he will see 20-25 minutes.
Going off these assumptions, here is our "trusted distribution".

Robbins (25)
Johnson (25)
Peterson (20)
Kalscheur (31)
Carr (34)
Mashburn (20)
Ihnen (20)
Williams (15)
Omersa or Freeman or Curry (10)

Mashburn picks up a few minutes at PG when Carr is out. I think Pitino needs to prepare him to be our Nate Mason style PG in 2021 when Carr almost certainly leaves.

Ihnen splits his minutes at the 3 and 4. Too talented to not get on the floor, even though he won't start.

I don't see Mitchell or Greenlee seeing the floor much at all. Curry is a wildcard, and I have no idea what to expect. So is Freeman, I could see him getting 0 minutes like this year or 10-15 minutes in relief in that Konate role if he has developed. Omersa lost the trust factor in the 2nd half of the season -- does he regain it? Does Freeman/Curry/Ihnen take his minutes?
 
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gopherguy15 said:
Guarantee that Robbins put COVID-19 uncertainty as his main argument, and that he can be around two close family members at the U should things get bad again next winter.
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Again, that is backwards from what the language actually says. It really is not this hard. It has nothing to do with the athlete going into a better situation (healthwise, family-wise) for themselves. Nothing.

It has only to do with the idea that the athlete can help one of their (immediate) family members who has fallen ill.

gopherguy15 said:
I'm not as optimistic about new waiver guidelines starting immediately. That seems 50/50 to me. There's been reports on both ends about this.
Click to expand...
The only reports I've seen on this say: that the working group who looked at the issue recommended to the DI council that they vote to change the guidelines and have the changes apply immediately, and that the DI council would be voting in May.

Have seen no other reports, to the contrary. Please link them, if you have them, thank you.
 

https://www.athleticscholarships.net/ncaa-transfer-exceptions.htm

"
Family Hardship Waivers

Family hardship waivers are some of the most common and most controversial waivers decided by the NCAA. The reason it is so controversial is many student-athletes in football and basketball request these waivers, and whether one is granted or denied can seem inconsistent.

The key thing to remember is that a student-athlete is arguing that the best thing for the athlete and his or her family is to allow the athlete to play immediately and that the athlete needs to transfer to assist with an ill or injured family member. The NCAA measures this in three areas.
  • Nature of the injury or illness: The injury or illness should be life-threatening and involve an immediate family member (parent, legal guardian, or sibling). Waivers that are denied typically involve an extended family member (aunt, uncle, grandparent, etc.) unless that family member raised the student-athlete.
  • Student-athlete’s responsibilities related to the care of the family member: The more involved the student-athlete is in the day-to-day care for the family member, the more likely the waiver is to be granted.
  • Chronology of events: Waivers are more likely to be granted if something changed that prompted the student-athlete’s transfer like a diagnosis, the actual injury, or a worsening condition. Waivers are less likely to be granted if a family member has been ill or injured for a while, and nothing changed that require the student-athlete to transfer.
When requesting the waiver, the school must submit at least three sets of information, much of which will come from the student-athlete or his or her family:
  • Documentation from the doctor who diagnosed the family member;
  • Documentation from the doctor who is currently treating the family member; and
  • A letter from the student-athlete explaining the need for a waiver.
These documentation standards can be hefty. Medical documentation typically includes both a letter from the doctor and medical documents like charts, treatment orders, and prescriptions.
"
 

Urbandale said:
You and I are diametrically opposed on the value of redshirting. I think it's irresponsible and way too old school for the realities of modern college basketball.

Hot take: Freeman plays more minutes this year than Omersa.
Click to expand...

Most teams truly play 7 guys the majority of minutes and 1 or 2 more 5 minutes or less. That leaves you 4-5 guys who most likely won't play regular minutes. Why wouldn't you want to use 1-3 of those on sit out transfers and redshirts if you truly believe they can be valuable as they get better?
 

manderson1984 said:
Most teams truly play 7 guys the majority of minutes and 1 or 2 more 5 minutes or less. That leaves you 4-5 guys who most likely won't play regular minutes. Why wouldn't you want to use 1-3 of those on sit out transfers and redshirts if you truly believe they can be valuable as they get better?
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The valid counter-argument, these days, is that more and more athletes are using that 5th year to grad transfer somewhere else.
 



manderson1984 said:
Most teams truly play 7 guys the majority of minutes and 1 or 2 more 5 minutes or less. That leaves you 4-5 guys who most likely won't play regular minutes. Why wouldn't you want to use 1-3 of those on sit out transfers and redshirts if you truly believe they can be valuable as they get better?
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The kid has to want to do it. Coaches would love to do it if they could find kids that want to.
 

eker0016 said:
It's fun to dream up all these numbers, and averages ultimately are a somewhat misleading statistic. It doesn't ever add up to 200 minutes at the end of the season because we never have all the guys play a full season, FYI. But we don't have any other sports so here goes. Looking at what Pitino has done historically can be a good guide for understanding how he will manage the roster next year.

Here's a little analysis of the "trusted" players and their minutes over the years. I included everyone at 10 minutes or above. *denotes partial season:

2013: Hollins (33), Hollins (31), Mathieu (30), King (22), Eliason (22), Malik Smith (19), Walker (19), Osenieks (19)
2014: Hollins (31), King (29), Mathieu (28), Mason (26) Morris (26), Walker (24), Buggs (13), Eliason (11)
2015: Mason (33), King (29), Murphy (27), Morris* (26), Buggs (24), McBrayer (23), Konate (22), Dorsey (19)
2016: Mason (35), Coffey (33), McBrayer (28), Murphy (28), Spring (24), Lynch (23), Curry (20), Konate (10)
2017: Mason (34), Murphy (32), Coffey (32), McBrayer (29), Lynch* (26), Washington (20), Hurt (19), Konate* (15), Harris (14), Fitzgerald (13)
2018: Coffey (35), McBrayer (32), Murphy (31), Kalscheur (31), Oturu (24), Curry* (19), Washington (16), Stockman (11), Stull (10)
2019: Carr (37), Oturu (34), Kalscheur (33), Willis (29), Demir (25), Williams (16), Omersa (12), Ihnen* (11), Hurt (10)
  • Earlier in his tenure, Pitino spread his minutes around a little more. The last few seasons it has been more concentrated in a top 5-6 guys. Seems like we should be deeper this coming year but we have never seen him trust more than 7, max 8 guys. So our minutes distribution should reflect that.
  • We have 17 player seasons in the past 7 years (2.42/yr) where a guy averaged over 30 mpg. So we will probably have two guys do that this year (Carr/Kalscheur).
  • I think one thing that is clear is that point guards don't get less than 33 mpg. Seeing how Carr played 37 mpg last year, I don't see him dipping below 33 mpg.
  • The only time a center has seen more than 22-26 mpg was last year with Oturu, so I would expect Robbins to play in that 22-26 range. I'm guessing Freeman gets a sub or two per game, and Johnson also moves to the 5 to get Ihnen some minutes at the 4 when Robbins sits.
  • To get an idea for highly regarded freshman guard Jamal Mashburn, take a look at our other highly regarded freshmen: Mason (26), McBrayer (23), Dorsey (19), Washington (20), Coffey (33), Kalscheur (31). I think 20 minutes is a realistic guess.
  • Peterson isn't a grad transfer, but if we expect him to play...let's take a look at other transfers: Morris (26), Lynch (23), Fitzgerald (13), Stockman (11), Willis (29), Carr (37). A very wide range of minutes for these guys. Stockman was obviously outplayed by Oturu and actually left the team briefly, and Fitzgerald was coming off an ACL tear (or two?). Peterson should see more time than them, but not like a Willis or a Carr. I'm guessing we see him for ~20 mpg.
  • To get an idea for Brandon Johnson, I looked at past graduate transfers Smith (19), Springs (24), Stull (10), and Demir (25). I am guessing he will see 20-25 minutes.
Going off these assumptions, here is our "trusted distribution".

Robbins (25)
Johnson (25)
Peterson (20)
Kalscheur (31)
Carr (34)
Mashburn (20)
Ihnen (20)
Williams (15)
Omersa or Freeman or Curry (10)

Mashburn picks up a few minutes at PG when Carr is out. I think Pitino needs to prepare him to be our Nate Mason style PG in 2021 when Carr almost certainly leaves.

Ihnen splits his minutes at the 3 and 4. Too talented to not get on the floor, even though he won't start.

I don't see Mitchell or Greenlee seeing the floor much at all. Curry is a wildcard, and I have no idea what to expect. So is Freeman, I could see him getting 0 minutes like this year or 10-15 minutes in relief in that Konate role if he has developed. Omersa lost the trust factor in the 2nd half of the season -- does he regain it? Does Freeman/Curry/Ihnen take his minutes?
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Thanks for the excellent post ! Obviously researched and well thought out.
 

Urbandale said:
You and I are diametrically opposed on the value of redshirting. I think it's irresponsible and way too old school for the realities of modern college basketball.

Hot take: Freeman plays more minutes this year than Omersa.
Click to expand...
That's a good hot take. I agree. Unless Omersa really develops some additional game, he is a 6-6 center in the Big Ten. I love the kid, he's a fantastic person it seems but I think Freeman has more potential. I hope they both surprise!
 

MplsGopher said:
The valid counter-argument, these days, is that more and more athletes are using that 5th year to grad transfer somewhere else.
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I hear that, but most kids graduate after 3 years with summers now anyways. If they transfer they transfer, but if we are winning and we have a good culture, more will stay than leave.
 



manderson1984 said:
I hear that, but most kids graduate after 3 years with summers now anyways. If they transfer they transfer, but if we are winning and we have a good culture, more will stay than leave.
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Agree. And so, we should be "using them up" for their full four years. Not for effectively three of the four, then they might choose to go somewhere else and play more with the "bonus" year.
 

bga1 said:
That's a good hot take. I agree. Unless Omersa really develops some additional game, he is a 6-6 center in the Big Ten. I love the kid, he's a fantastic person it seems but I think Freeman has more potential. I hope they both surprise!
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Like the take as well. As far as Omersa I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a Big Ten player with fewer offensive skills. Maybe a few developmental bigs. I don’t like playing four on five offense when he’s in the game Can he at least improve slightly ? I have my doubts.
 

T-Bonegopher said:
Thanks for the excellent post ! Obviously researched and well thought out.
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Excellent post!!
I would put an asterisk on 2017 however- that was really two season in one year. For the first part of the year we stuck to a basic core using one of the best starting lineups in the league and then we were a little weak on the bench. When things fell apart, the bench had to play big roles and that's how they accumulated all of those minutes.

Pitino has played depth in the past and he has had depth that could play in certain years. However, there haven't been many years where he could expect a lot of scoring punch from the bench. It feels like we have lost a lot of games where teams go on runs when we have bench players out there and we have a drought. This year might be different.
 

Otis said:
Ihnen better get at least 20 minutes a game. Especially if like Ragnor, you think he is our BEST player.
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I think he has the most potential but don't think he was there at the end of the season. Hopefully sometime next season. I expect he will just keep getting better. I would say Carr, Robbins or Johnson will be our best players to start the season, but he could be our best player when the season starts.
 

builtbadgers said:
The kid has to want to do it. Coaches would love to do it if they could find kids that want to.
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In my years of being involved with a program that prefers to redshirt whenever possible, I've seen the tremendous benefits, albeit things that might not show up in a box score. It's more about comfort level in instinctively doing things that need to be done to ensure team efficiency. Things like knowing exactly where to be in your defensive scheme, when and where to play help defense, knowing your teammates abilities & preferences, being fully locked in on how and why you get your offense started in a particular way. A full season of being immersed in those types of things, with-out burning a year of eligibility or making a dumb mistake because you were still learning on the job. Not sure if it applies to a junior transfer with lots of game experience coming over, but I've seen it work wonders over and over again when you're talking about freshmen. Of course, you need to let the player know right away about the plan and the player need to be on board. If he's not, you gotta question why you brought in somebody who isn't going to buy into the program.
 

Why would Mashburn get more "trust" minutes than Ihnen, Williams. Omersa, and Curry?

eker0016 said:
It's fun to dream up all these numbers, and averages ultimately are a somewhat misleading statistic. It doesn't ever add up to 200 minutes at the end of the season because we never have all the guys play a full season, FYI. But we don't have any other sports so here goes. Looking at what Pitino has done historically can be a good guide for understanding how he will manage the roster next year.

Here's a little analysis of the "trusted" players and their minutes over the years. I included everyone at 10 minutes or above. *denotes partial season:

2013: Hollins (33), Hollins (31), Mathieu (30), King (22), Eliason (22), Malik Smith (19), Walker (19), Osenieks (19)
2014: Hollins (31), King (29), Mathieu (28), Mason (26) Morris (26), Walker (24), Buggs (13), Eliason (11)
2015: Mason (33), King (29), Murphy (27), Morris* (26), Buggs (24), McBrayer (23), Konate (22), Dorsey (19)
2016: Mason (35), Coffey (33), McBrayer (28), Murphy (28), Spring (24), Lynch (23), Curry (20), Konate (10)
2017: Mason (34), Murphy (32), Coffey (32), McBrayer (29), Lynch* (26), Washington (20), Hurt (19), Konate* (15), Harris (14), Fitzgerald (13)
2018: Coffey (35), McBrayer (32), Murphy (31), Kalscheur (31), Oturu (24), Curry* (19), Washington (16), Stockman (11), Stull (10)
2019: Carr (37), Oturu (34), Kalscheur (33), Willis (29), Demir (25), Williams (16), Omersa (12), Ihnen* (11), Hurt (10)
  • Earlier in his tenure, Pitino spread his minutes around a little more. The last few seasons it has been more concentrated in a top 5-6 guys. Seems like we should be deeper this coming year but we have never seen him trust more than 7, max 8 guys. So our minutes distribution should reflect that.
  • We have 17 player seasons in the past 7 years (2.42/yr) where a guy averaged over 30 mpg. So we will probably have two guys do that this year (Carr/Kalscheur).
  • I think one thing that is clear is that point guards don't get less than 33 mpg. Seeing how Carr played 37 mpg last year, I don't see him dipping below 33 mpg.
  • The only time a center has seen more than 22-26 mpg was last year with Oturu, so I would expect Robbins to play in that 22-26 range. I'm guessing Freeman gets a sub or two per game, and Johnson also moves to the 5 to get Ihnen some minutes at the 4 when Robbins sits.
  • To get an idea for highly regarded freshman guard Jamal Mashburn, take a look at our other highly regarded freshmen: Mason (26), McBrayer (23), Dorsey (19), Washington (20), Coffey (33), Kalscheur (31). I think 20 minutes is a realistic guess.
  • Peterson isn't a grad transfer, but if we expect him to play...let's take a look at other transfers: Morris (26), Lynch (23), Fitzgerald (13), Stockman (11), Willis (29), Carr (37). A very wide range of minutes for these guys. Stockman was obviously outplayed by Oturu and actually left the team briefly, and Fitzgerald was coming off an ACL tear (or two?). Peterson should see more time than them, but not like a Willis or a Carr. I'm guessing we see him for ~20 mpg.
  • To get an idea for Brandon Johnson, I looked at past graduate transfers Smith (19), Springs (24), Stull (10), and Demir (25). I am guessing he will see 20-25 minutes.
Going off these assumptions, here is our "trusted distribution".

Robbins (25)
Johnson (25)
Peterson (20)
Kalscheur (31)
Carr (34)
Mashburn (20)
Ihnen (20)
Williams (15)
Omersa or Freeman or Curry (10)

Mashburn picks up a few minutes at PG when Carr is out. I think Pitino needs to prepare him to be our Nate Mason style PG in 2021 when Carr almost certainly leaves.

Ihnen splits his minutes at the 3 and 4. Too talented to not get on the floor, even though he won't start.

I don't see Mitchell or Greenlee seeing the floor much at all. Curry is a wildcard, and I have no idea what to expect. So is Freeman, I could see him getting 0 minutes like this year or 10-15 minutes in relief in that Konate role if he has developed. Omersa lost the trust factor in the 2nd half of the season -- does he regain it? Does Freeman/Curry/Ihnen take his minutes?
Click to expand...
 

MplsGopher said:
Again, that is backwards from what the language actually says. It really is not this hard. It has nothing to do with the athlete going into a better situation (healthwise, family-wise) for themselves. Nothing.

It has only to do with the idea that the athlete can help one of their (immediate) family members who has fallen ill.


The only reports I've seen on this say: that the working group who looked at the issue recommended to the DI council that they vote to change the guidelines and have the changes apply immediately, and that the DI council would be voting in May.

Have seen no other reports, to the contrary. Please link them, if you have them, thank you.
Click to expand...

Did you even read my post? In my opinion, the official family hardship waiver isn't related to the COVID-19 situation ("Doesn't matter if it shouldn't happen according to language"). There is nothing in the NCAA transfer rule-book about a pandemic. It's ironic that you made a backhanded comment "it really is not this hard" when you can't even understand my post. If Robbins is granted, it's because the NCAA approved him being close to some family members due to COVID-19. That would be a decision outside the realm of official transfer rules, but one that the NCAA will make. I'm sticking to my opinion. You're more than welcome to stick with yours.
 

Otis said:
Why would Mashburn get more "trust" minutes than Ihnen, Williams. Omersa, and Curry?
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I put Mashburn (20) the same as Ihnen (20).

Ihnen was averaging about 20 mpg in the last month of the season, and with 5th year Brandon Johnson coming in to replace Demir, I would be (pleasantly) surprised if he saw more minutes.

Omersa was seeing around 5 mpg in the final months of the season. Pitino really went away from him. His only games with double digit minutes in the final 9 games were when we blew out Nebraska 107-75, and when Ihnen missed the NW game. Ihnen's development/health was inversely correlated to his minutes. With Brandon Johnson coming in, too, and Peterson taking minutes at the 3 I just don't see many minutes for him unless he develops an offensive game. Omersa might be my single favorite player to watch so I hope he proves me wrong.

As I said, Curry is a wild card. I'm a big man (6'7" 225) with knee problems from basketball. Sometimes your lower body is just never the same. I hope Curry recovers and plays an important role for us but I don't trust it will happen.

As for Mashburn vs. Williams, who knows? I'm taking a guess based on what highly regarded guards have gotten as freshman in the past. I really liked everything I saw from Williams last year, except for his shooting (28%). The last 3 times we saw a freshman guard shoot that poorly (Washington 36%, Harris 35%, Gilbert 30%) they saw fewer minutes their sophomore year or transferred out. I hope Williams' career looks more like McBrayer (33% as a freshman). Williams added a lot on defense so I really hope he sticks around and improves his shooting. If Mashburn shoots more like Gabe as a freshman, then I think he sees more minutes than Williams. If he can't, then Williams' defense and size will probably give him more minutes than Mashburn.

Plus, as I mentioned, I really think Pitino needs to view Mashburn as his succession plan for life after Carr.
 

Otis said:
Why would Mashburn get more "trust" minutes than Ihnen, Williams. Omersa, and Curry?
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I can't speak for eker - but Mashburn fills two roles where we might be a little thin in terms of depth. I still view Williams as more of a 3 as he just doesn't have the handle for a 2 yet. The 3 has a lot of guys that can play it (Peterson, Ihnen, Williams).
 

gopherguy15 said:
it's because the NCAA approved him being close to some family members due to COVID-19. That would be a decision outside the realm of official transfer rules, but one that the NCAA will make.
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No, that’s not a thing.

As will be made explicitly clear, he’ll be eligible because of the newly updated guidelines.
 

If Carr is back - he will play 35+ minutes a game. bank on it.
The Gophers still do not have a backup PG. Mashburn is a FR combo guard - not a true PG. IMHO, the only time he plays the point is in the last few minutes of games that are out of reach (either way...)

If everyone is back and eligible, then this could be a very interesting team. But, it is also a team with a lot of questions, and a lot of new pieces being fit into the rotation.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Where would you play him? He has pretty solid handles. needs to get stronger but I'm guessing that is happening this summer/fall. He'll be able to get to the rack and dunk on peoples heads
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Agree. I think Ihnen has potential at the 3 as well. Moves well enuf to guard and saw him go off the bounce some last year. Would definitely be helpful if that was an option for us at times next season, especially since not totally sure what Petersen will bring
 

MplsGopher said:
No, that’s not a thing.

As will be made explicitly clear, he’ll be eligible because of the newly updated guidelines.
Click to expand...

And I'm sticking with my point that he'll get immediate eligibility even if the newly updated guidelines aren't approved for this year. We agree to disagree. Moving on.


As for the Mashburn conversation... I think Pitino knows there's a good chance Carr leaves after this next year to play professionally somewhere (he's put his name in the draft for two consecutive years). This is obviously assuming he comes back for this next season. Pitino will give Mashburn decent minutes so that he's ready to take the reigns from Carr in '21-22.
 

eker0016 said:
It's fun to dream up all these numbers, and averages ultimately are a somewhat misleading statistic. It doesn't ever add up to 200 minutes at the end of the season because we never have all the guys play a full season, FYI. But we don't have any other sports so here goes. Looking at what Pitino has done historically can be a good guide for understanding how he will manage the roster next year.

Here's a little analysis of the "trusted" players and their minutes over the years. I included everyone at 10 minutes or above. *denotes partial season:

2013: Hollins (33), Hollins (31), Mathieu (30), King (22), Eliason (22), Malik Smith (19), Walker (19), Osenieks (19)
2014: Hollins (31), King (29), Mathieu (28), Mason (26) Morris (26), Walker (24), Buggs (13), Eliason (11)
2015: Mason (33), King (29), Murphy (27), Morris* (26), Buggs (24), McBrayer (23), Konate (22), Dorsey (19)
2016: Mason (35), Coffey (33), McBrayer (28), Murphy (28), Spring (24), Lynch (23), Curry (20), Konate (10)
2017: Mason (34), Murphy (32), Coffey (32), McBrayer (29), Lynch* (26), Washington (20), Hurt (19), Konate* (15), Harris (14), Fitzgerald (13)
2018: Coffey (35), McBrayer (32), Murphy (31), Kalscheur (31), Oturu (24), Curry* (19), Washington (16), Stockman (11), Stull (10)
2019: Carr (37), Oturu (34), Kalscheur (33), Willis (29), Demir (25), Williams (16), Omersa (12), Ihnen* (11), Hurt (10)
  • Earlier in his tenure, Pitino spread his minutes around a little more. The last few seasons it has been more concentrated in a top 5-6 guys. Seems like we should be deeper this coming year but we have never seen him trust more than 7, max 8 guys. So our minutes distribution should reflect that.
  • We have 17 player seasons in the past 7 years (2.42/yr) where a guy averaged over 30 mpg. So we will probably have two guys do that this year (Carr/Kalscheur).
  • I think one thing that is clear is that point guards don't get less than 33 mpg. Seeing how Carr played 37 mpg last year, I don't see him dipping below 33 mpg.
  • The only time a center has seen more than 22-26 mpg was last year with Oturu, so I would expect Robbins to play in that 22-26 range. I'm guessing Freeman gets a sub or two per game, and Johnson also moves to the 5 to get Ihnen some minutes at the 4 when Robbins sits.
  • To get an idea for highly regarded freshman guard Jamal Mashburn, take a look at our other highly regarded freshmen: Mason (26), McBrayer (23), Dorsey (19), Washington (20), Coffey (33), Kalscheur (31). I think 20 minutes is a realistic guess.
  • Peterson isn't a grad transfer, but if we expect him to play...let's take a look at other transfers: Morris (26), Lynch (23), Fitzgerald (13), Stockman (11), Willis (29), Carr (37). A very wide range of minutes for these guys. Stockman was obviously outplayed by Oturu and actually left the team briefly, and Fitzgerald was coming off an ACL tear (or two?). Peterson should see more time than them, but not like a Willis or a Carr. I'm guessing we see him for ~20 mpg.
  • To get an idea for Brandon Johnson, I looked at past graduate transfers Smith (19), Springs (24), Stull (10), and Demir (25). I am guessing he will see 20-25 minutes.
Going off these assumptions, here is our "trusted distribution".

Robbins (25)
Johnson (25)
Peterson (20)
Kalscheur (31)
Carr (34)
Mashburn (20)
Ihnen (20)
Williams (15)
Omersa or Freeman or Curry (10)

Mashburn picks up a few minutes at PG when Carr is out. I think Pitino needs to prepare him to be our Nate Mason style PG in 2021 when Carr almost certainly leaves.

Ihnen splits his minutes at the 3 and 4. Too talented to not get on the floor, even though he won't start.

I don't see Mitchell or Greenlee seeing the floor much at all. Curry is a wildcard, and I have no idea what to expect. So is Freeman, I could see him getting 0 minutes like this year or 10-15 minutes in relief in that Konate role if he has developed. Omersa lost the trust factor in the 2nd half of the season -- does he regain it? Does Freeman/Curry/Ihnen take his minutes?
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This is great! Thank you for providing all the info from past seasons good insight.
 

Chico Gopher said:
In my years of being involved with a program that prefers to redshirt whenever possible, I've seen the tremendous benefits, albeit things that might not show up in a box score. It's more about comfort level in instinctively doing things that need to be done to ensure team efficiency. Things like knowing exactly where to be in your defensive scheme, when and where to play help defense, knowing your teammates abilities & preferences, being fully locked in on how and why you get your offense started in a particular way. A full season of being immersed in those types of things, with-out burning a year of eligibility or making a dumb mistake because you were still learning on the job. Not sure if it applies to a junior transfer with lots of game experience coming over, but I've seen it work wonders over and over again when you're talking about freshmen. Of course, you need to let the player know right away about the plan and the player need to be on board. If he's not, you gotta question why you brought in somebody who isn't going to buy into the program.
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If your over 40 it is likely we have met. The three coaches i know that have made such great use of it spell it out on pre season evaluation where they see the minutes falling. If a player wants to play his freshman year and hopes to exceed the 8 minute range than he is welcome to play. If he buys in to learning a complex and rigourous team defense, heavy training, scout team responsibilities , more individual skills time, a great start to academic work and a projection of what it looks like forward then redshirting is a great plan. More often kids take it, many even ask for it knowing it has benefited so many. It is rarely done with point guards as they are further along than bigs. Several times that meant redshirting your best freshman ! The vast majority have been top 100 4 star players. The results have been spectacular for the players and the program.
 

gopherguy15 said:
And I'm sticking with my point that he'll get immediate eligibility even if the newly updated guidelines aren't approved for this year.
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Maybe, but it won’t have anything to do with the reasoning you gave about needing to be closer to (extended) family members during the cv19 crisis. That’s not a thing.
 

builtbadgers said:
If your over 40 it is likely we have met. The three coaches i know that have made such great use of it spell it out on pre season evaluation where they see the minutes falling. If a player wants to play his freshman year and hopes to exceed the 8 minute range than he is welcome to play. If he buys in to learning a complex and rigourous team defense, heavy training, scout team responsibilities , more individual skills time, a great start to academic work and a projection of what it looks like forward then redshirting is a great plan. More often kids take it, many even ask for it knowing it has benefited so many. It is rarely done with point guards as they are further along than bigs. Several times that meant redshirting your best freshman ! The vast majority have been top 100 4 star players. The results have been spectacular for the players and the program.
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Is there a way one could see the top 100 recruiting players over the years that have redshirted? I am quite interested to see who would be on that list over the years.
 

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