Beautiful Target Field will host the 2015 Big Ten Baseball Tournament.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN — When the B1G Baseball Tournament takes place Wednesday-Sunday at Target Field, there will be more than usual at stake. The event likely will be poorly attended, and it certainly doesn’t help that the host team Gophers were not one of the 8 qualifiers. There will be too many fans disguised as empty seats, with the lone exceptions likely to be ‘Husker Nation and (you would think) fans of Illinois, whose sizzling Illini ride a nation-best 26-game winning streak into the tournament. That’s too bad if only a few people notice, because it figures to be a whale of a double-elimination tournament.
In recent times, the B1G Tournament has been nothing more than an opportunity to earn the conference’s automatic bid, with perhaps one or two other teams (at best) having a chance to pick up NCAA Tournament at-large bids. Last year the B1G placed two teams in the NCAA tourney, champion Indiana and Nebraska. That’s pretty much been the norm.
Unlike basketball and most other sports, B1G baseball does not gobble up a lot of at-large bids. Warm-weather conferences like the SEC, ACC, and Pac 12 garner the lion’s share of the at-large bids. That again will be the case in 2015. Again we should expect those conferences to put 22-23 teams into the field, but the B1G hopes Wednesday starts the dawn of a new era.
The B1G has never received more than three bids to the NCAA tourney, but it will be a major surprise if that mark isn’t shattered when the NCAA pairings are announced on Selection Monday. Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana are locks to be selected, while Maryland, Michigan State, and Ohio State all are in good position to earn bids simply by winning a game or two in Minneapolis. Even 8th-place Nebraska (mainly because of its fraudulent #39 RPI) has an outside shot to dance if it can find its way to the title game. Oddly, the only team with no shot at an at-large bid is Michigan, the #3 seed. Go figure.
Here’s the bracket, followed by a snapshot look at each team, predictions, and some food for thought. All statistical numbers are through games played May 17.
Illinois
Seed: #1
Record: 44-6, 21-1 B1G
RPI: #10
Wednesday: vs. Nebraska, 5 p.m. (BTN)
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 14-3
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 17-3
Best 3 Non-Conference Wins: @ #13 Oklahoma State (twice), @ #20 Coastal Carolina
Record vs. Teams Currently Projected into NCAA Field: 15-3
Road/Neutral Record: 23-4
Overall SOS: #148
Non-Conference SOS: #202
Noteworthy: 26 wins in a row? That’s impressive at any level. The Illini are playing for a national seed (top 8), which would earn them the right to host both a Regional and Super Regional.
The Call: The Fighting Illini will win the tournament, but don’t be surprised if they lose one along the way.
NCAA Fate: Earn their national seed
Indiana
Seed: #6
Record: 32-20, 12-10 B1G
RPI: #34
Wednesday: vs. Michigan, 9 a.m.
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 10-8
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 17-15
Best 3 Non-Conference Wins: #9 Louisville, @ #17 College of Charleston, #29 Cal State Fullerton
Record vs. Teams Currently Projected into NCAA Field: 10-8
Road/Neutral Record: 15-12
Overall SOS: #39
Non-Conference SOS: #94
Noteworthy: Outside of Illinois, the hottest team entering the tournament. Have swept both Maryland & Ohio State.
The Call: Don’t be surprised if the Hoosiers come out of the top half of the bracket, the weaker of the two brackets.
NCAA Fate: Hoosiers will hear their name called on Selection Monday with plenty of room to spare.
Iowa
Seed: #2
Record: 35-14, 19-5 B1G
RPI: #30
Wednesday: vs. Ohio State, 1 p.m.
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 7-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 14-6
Best 3 Non-Conference Wins: vs. #8 Missouri State, @ #77 Middle Tennessee (twice)
Record vs. Teams Currently Projected into NCAA Field: 8-2
Road/Neutral Record: 8-2
Overall SOS: #136
Non-Conference SOS: #187
Noteworthy: Won 2 of 3 in series @ Maryland.
The Call: 2 and out for the Hawkeyes means outside chance for hosting a regional go kaput.
NCAA Fate: I don’t like Hawkeyes’ resume all that much, but 19-5 in the conference is 19-5. Despite disappointing B1G tourney, it’s still a breakthrough season that will end with NCAA berth.
Maryland
Seed: #4
Record: 36-20, 14-10 B1G
RPI: #59
Wednesday: vs. Michigan State, 9 p.m. (BTN)
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 10-9
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 14-13
Best 3 Non-Conference Wins: #29 Cal State Fullerton (twice), vs. #37 Arkansas
Record vs. Teams Currently Projected into NCAA Field: 11-9
Road/Neutral Record: 21-11
Overall SOS: #96
Non-Conference SOS: #147
Noteworthy: Sophomore ace RHP Mike Shawaryn (6-2, 1.27 ERA) is a semifinalist for the Dick Howser Award, given to the nation’s top player.
The Call: Win the opener over MSU because of Shawaryn, but then drop 2 straight.
NCAA Fate: Terps will be on the bubble, just miss NCAA cut.
Michigan
Seed: #3
Record: 33-23, 14-10 B1G
RPI: #81
Wednesday: vs. Indiana, 9 a.m.
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-9
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 10-12
Best 3 Non-Conference Wins: #13 Oklahoma State, @ #20 Coastal Carolina, @ #73 Long Beach State
Record vs. Teams Currently Projected into NCAA Field: 7-10
Road/Neutral Record: 18-16
Overall SOS: #112
Non-Conference SOS: #146
Noteworthy: UM is coached by former Maryland coach Erik Bakich.
The Call: Go Blue wins a game (perhaps vs. Iowa) and that’s it.
NCAA Fate: No chance.
Michigan State
Seed: #5
Record: 33-21, 14-10 B1G
RPI: #48
Wednesday: vs. Maryland, 9 p.m. (BTN)
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 7-9
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 14-11
Best 3 Non-Conference Wins: @ #20 Coastal Carolina, @ #35 Notre Dame, vs. #42 Southeastern Louisiana
Record vs. Teams Currently Projected into NCAA Field:
Road/Neutral Record: 9-10
Overall SOS: #76
Non-Conference SOS: #43
Noteworthy: Sparty LF & lead-off hitter Cam Gibson is the son of Kirk Gibson. You will most definitely see the resemblance.
The Call: After falling to Shawaryn in opener, Sparty later gets another crack at Terps, win 2nd time around.
NCAA Fate: Like Maryland, Spartacus will be on the bubble, but they’ll nab one of the final at-large bids.
Nebraska
Seed: #8
Record: 34-21, 9-14 B1G
RPI: #39
Wednesday: vs. Illinois, 9 a.m.
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-10
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 15-13
Best 3 Non-Conference Wins: #29 Cal State Fullerton, @ #66 Creighton (twice)
Record vs. Teams Currently Projected into NCAA Field: 2-10
Road/Neutral Record: 13-15
Overall SOS: #51
Non-Conference SOS: #53
Noteworthy: Turns out that the 2-1 series win over the Gophers is what got ‘Huskers a B1G tourney spot.
The Call: ‘Huskers go 0-2 barbecue.
NCAA Fate: Anything short of a title-game appearance and there’s no shot. There are no significant non-conference wins other than Cal State Fullerton, and the record vs. top-50 teams is simply too awful.
Ohio State
Seed: #7
Record: 35-18, 13-11
RPI: #31
Wednesday: vs. Iowa, 1 p.m.
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 6-10
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 13-15
Best 3 Non-Conference Wins: #9 Louisville, @ #16 FAU, @ #82 UAB
Record vs. Teams Currently Projected into NCAA Field: 9-10
Road/Neutral Record: 17-9
Overall SOS: #62
Non-Conference SOS: #97
Noteworthy: OSU catcher Aaron Gretz is from Apple Valley.
The Call: Buckeyes beat Iowa in their opener, win a second game vs. either Michigan or Indiana.
NCAA Fate: Despite late-season swoon, Buckeyes do enough at Target Field to solidify a NCAA appearance.
Final tally for the conference? A record 5 teams will play in the NCAA Tournament. Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa I feel pretty good about. Ohio State would have to go 0-2 not to make it, but I don’t think that will happen. Michigan State will be the 5th (barely), while Maryland will be on the outside looking in. The only way the conference gets 6 bids is if Michigan or Nebraska win the tournament.