Can past events influence the future? There is a train of thought in casino gambling that what has happened before, say, the outcome of the last five spins of a roulette wheel, is going to affect the outcome of the next one.
This is a gambler’s fallacy, something that people can easily fall into. Players at a legal casino in any country could have experienced this first hand. It is especially noticeable to gamblers placing several small bets in a row, for example on a UK platform with £1 minimum deposit requirements, or at a licensed $1 deposit US casino. When you look at the outcomes of several games in a row, you can clearly see that past results have no bearing on future results.
But does the phenomenon bleed over into sports as well? Does the same bias raise the expectancy that a team on a streak will stay on one? Here we look at the real impact of what has gone before in gambling and sports betting.
Predictive Potential
Casino gambling and sports betting are very different. By design, casino games have greater elements of chance and the house has an edge on every one. Winning a jackpot on a slot machine can range from one in 5,000 to one in 1 million depending on the machine, for example, and there is a 1 in 35 chance of picking the right number from a roulette spin.
There are games with much better odds, like an even money payout on blackjack and selecting a line bet in roulette as opposed to a single number. But the point is, none of the outcomes in any of those games are predictive.
Flip the scene to a soccer match and chance is still involved, such as a costly mistake, the influence of weather, refereeing decisions and so on. However, because of the inclusion of stats in sports betting research, what has happened before can help mitigate risk.
Roulette Study
The randomness of roulette spins perfectly highlights that what’s happened has nothing to do with what will happen. If you have bet on black five times in a row and the result has come up red, you are more inclined to think that you are “due” to get a black on the next spin.
But there is still the same number of reds and blacks on the wheel for every spin. On a roulette table with one zero, there is a 48.6% chance of picking the correct colour (red or black) per spin. That percentage does not change and just because five reds have come up in a row, the probability of a black next doesn’t suddenly jump up to 80% for example.
Patterns in Soccer
Taking the example of a soccer match, then things are very different, as the study of recent form can tell a lot about an expected outcome. A team that has lost five of their last six league matches is just unlikely to win away at a title contender next, for example.
Bettors can look at form patterns across many different statistics, and that will paint a much clearer picture of what is going to happen. Because a team is in winning form currently, and are match favorites, that doesn’t guarantee a win, of course.
Still, a team that’s at -303 moneyline odds to win represents a 75% chance of that particular outcome happening and that will be based on recent results influencing the future. It’s far stronger probably than you’ll find in a casino game.
Exerting Control
Another way to think about this is a player taking a penalty kick. They may have scored their last five successfully, but when they step up to take the next one, there is an implied 50/50 probability of success or failure.
But the player’s training, ability and expertise shift that probability greatly because they can exert a certain degree of control over the situation, like how hard they kick the ball and which part of the goal they target.
In a game of roulette or a slot machine, a player has no control, there’s not one thing they can do to shift the odds of a spin landing in their favor.
In Summary
Past roulette spins and the results from past soccer matches have very different impacts on future outcomes. It’s a non-entity at the casino table, and expecting a win based on what has happened is a gamblers’ fallacy, as there’s no valid strategy that can be applied from past results.
In sports betting, the bettor’s skill in analyzing form and statistics shifts the needle towards realistic expectations, like avoiding backing a team to win away from home after they have scored just two goals in their last six matches.