The Minnesota Golden Gophers continued their consistent, season-long narrative last Saturday, losing narrowly to another highly-ranked team. Iowa walked away with the Floyd of Rosedale trophy after defeating the Gophers 40-35. As Minnesota constantly clawed their way back into the game, Iowa fans’ saw their patience wear thin and anxiety skyrocket.
In the Iowa student section, numerous students seemed surprised by the Gopher’s talent. They muttered to me something along the lines of, “Wow, you guys are way better than your record!” At least we had some Hawkeye fans nervous. Unfortunately, moral victories currently don’t hold much merit in the midst of a four-game losing streak. Regardless, Minnesota must look ahead to November 21, when they face the Illinois Fighting Illini at TCF Bank Stadium. Below are some indicators as to which team will likely be able to tally one notch in the winner’s column.
Illinois Likely Wins if…
They are able to establish a running game. If the Illinois offensive line can create some holes, the 5-5 Illini can run their way to bowl-game eligibility. Iowa exposed Minnesota’s depleted defensive line last weekend, as running backs LeShun Daniels Jr. and Jordan Canzeri combined for 226 yards and three touchdowns. It appears as if Minnesota will face another running duo in Illinois’ Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Josh Ferguson. Expect Vaughn, a freshman, to receive a majority of the carries. He has rushed for 661 yards and six touchdowns in 10 games this season.
Minnesota Likely Wins if…
Their defense can get Illinois off of the field, especially on third downs. The offense has generally been humming along in recent weeks despite a lethargic start to the season. The defense, however, has had issues as of late. The opponent third-down conversion rate is a small facet of the game, but with large implications. Last weekend in Iowa City, the Gophers allowed 10 third down conversions in 15 attempts (66.67%). This obviously allowed Iowa to extend drives, wear out the defense and improve field position. The highest third down percentage the Gophers have allowed this season while still salvaging a victory came against Ohio. The Bobcats went 8-for-16 on third downs.
Some Extra Notes…
– Minnesota leads the all-time series vs. Illinois 35-29-3. In Minneapolis, Minnesota leads 20-12-2.
– In 2014, Tim Beckman and Jerry Kill were roaming the sidelines, serving as the head coaches for Illinois and Minnesota, respectively. Beckman was canned just a week before the season opener, and Kill retired just weeks ago.
-Illinois is seeking consecutive victories against Minnesota for the first time since the 1993-94 seasons.
-The same five individuals have started each of Illinois’ ten games at offensive line this season. I’m sure you’re well aware that the same sense of offensive continuity has been nothing but a dream for Minnesota, who has faced injuries all season.
In summary, Minnesota will be facing a determined Fighting Illini team seeking to reach bowl game eligibility for the second straight season. Reaching the six-win mark would make Illinois bowl-eligible for the fourth time in six seasons. Not bad for a university considered a “basketball school.” Based strictly on statistics, it appears these two teams are evenly matched. Expect a competitive matchup come Saturday.