Yard Barker: How Golden are the Gophers?

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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per Kyle:

Minnesota entered the polls for the first time this season at No. 21 and at 4-0, they seem destined to dictate the 2022 Big Ten West race, so how golden are they?

Three Reasons The Gophers Are Pure Gold​

1. Tanner Morgan​

Morgan had a career day against Michigan State finishing 23 for 26 passing for 268 yards and three touchdowns with a QBR of 97.5. For the season, Morgan has been playing at an elite level this season completing 77.2% of his passes for 886 yards and seven touchdown passes. His 88.7 QBR is currently fifth in the nation.

Morgan has been reunited with offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca who was the mastermind of the offense that Morgan clicked with in 2019. After Ciarrocca’s departure to Penn State, Morgan’s completion percentage dropped nearly 10%. The veteran quarterback is clearly more effective in Ciarrocca's scheme, as evidenced by his 15-2 career under him.

2. Dominance on both sides of the ball​

Minnesota has taken care of business on both sides of the ball in dominant fashion.
The Gophers offense is in the Top 5 nationally in:
  • Total Offense Per Game (No. 3 - 543.3)
  • Total Yards Gained (No. 5 - 2,172)
  • Average Time of Possession (No. 1 - 40 minutes)
  • Third Down % (No. 1 - 78.8%)
  • Rushing Offense (No. 2 - 294.5 yards per game)
  • First Downs (No. 1 - 126)
They are in the Top 11 in:
  • Passing Efficiency (No. 7 - 184.68)
  • Points Per Game (No. 11 - 45.8)
  • Team Completion Percentage (No. 6 - 73.4%)
The Gopher defense has been just as effective, they are No. 1 in the country on Third Down Defense (14.3%), No. 2 in First Downs Allowed (43), No. 2 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game (126), No. 1 in Total Defense (187.8 yards per game), and No. 2 in Scoring Defense (6.0 points per game).

This sort of dominance will bode well in the Big Ten West with so many teams have holes.

3. The schedule​

Outside of visiting Penn State in October and potentially their season-ending battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe in Madison, the Gophers should be favored in all of their games.

What should make the Gophers hopeful is they beat Penn State in 2019. The same backfield that started that game - Tanner Morgan at quarterback and Mohamed Ibrahim at running back - will be starting this one as well. Minnesota will be hoping to repeat their 31-26 upset from that day.

Wisconsin is a main rival and they always seem to figure it out during the season and should be clicking on both sides of the ball.

10-2 is not out of the question for the Gophers and depending what they do in State College and in Madison will determine if they go to Indianapolis but also a potential New Year’s Six bowl.

Three Reasons The Gophers Are Fools Gold​

1. Soft schedule so far​

Their dominance has not been against the toughest of competition, and that is reflected by their 113th out of 130 ranked schedule. This will be a reason if the Gophers are undefeated as the College Football Playoff rankings start to come out, the Gophers will be outside looking in.

2. Lack of explosiveness on offense​

Even with the Gophers out scoring the opposition 183-24 and having 86 plays of ten or more yards, they have had only two plays go for 40 or more yards and rank 100th in the nation in offensive marginal explosiveness.

The ability to burn the opposition big is key when the competition increases and is key when much more talented defenses can cover the Gophers in short and intermediate gains where they have feasted this season.

3. Lack of an elite pass rush​

With only seven total sacks on the season, the Gophers have not gotten to the quarterback. The Gophers are not in the Top 50 for sacks or quarterback pressures. This is a giant red flag when you start talking about being mentioned amongst the best in the nation.

Conclusion​

This team eerily reminds me of the 2015 Iowa Hawkeyes who went undefeated in the regular season but lost the Big Ten Championship Game against Michigan State and the Rose Bowl against Stanford.

Minnesota is in a situation where it should go at minimum 10-2 but they have a schedule where they can beat Penn State in Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions are currently 98th in offensive success rate and 97th defensive success rate. If Minnesota controls the ground they get that win. Wisconsin might be their toughest opponent to conclude the season but the question will be outside of Braelan Allen, who can help Graham Mertz offensively?

Minnesota has an excellent shot at a New Year’s Six bowl berth if they take care of their business where they should and win in Happy Valley or Madison.

www.yardbarker.com

How Golden are the Gophers?

For many prognosticators, the Big Ten West preseason predictions were between three teams: Wisconsin, who, over the past 25 seasons, have been the most
www.yardbarker.com www.yardbarker.com

Go Gophers!!
 



bc2211 said:
Can’t rack up sacks when your defense isn’t on the field. Pressure rate would be a more interesting number to review.
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My dad always mentions the dominant 49er teams. They were amazing against the run…because no one ran against them down 2-3 scores all the time. This is similar in the gopher don’t rush the passer because the passer isn’t on the field.
 

Regarding the pass rush, what I've seen in Rossi's defenses is impressive gap discipline in the front 7. You could see that change the moment he took over. A gap discipline-first defense can come at the expense of sacks, but there's hopefully plenty of pressure to disrupt things.
 


i do worry about the pass rush. we will be in close games at some point this year and we don't have someone who's proven their a gamebreaker on the edge thus far. Undoubtedly there will be a time when a team is trying to make a late drive to tie or win and we'll need to see if someone can fill that role (was a huge reason why Michigan was successful last year was their edge rush)
 

Hopefully the pass rush is in the grooming process and is about to explode.
 

bc2211 said:
Can’t rack up sacks when your defense isn’t on the field. Pressure rate would be a more interesting number to review.
Click to expand...
I can't speak for pressure rate, but the Gophers are 25th in the FBS in sack percentage at 8.22%, just below Michigan and above Ohio State.

This is a 2% improvement from 2021.
 

#2Gopher said:
Hopefully the pass rush is in the grooming process and is about to explode.
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As long as TOP is still greatly in Gophers favor, the sack numbers are going to stay down. Can't sack someone that doesn't have the ball. Sack numbers for this squad don't mean a thing.
 





This is by Mike Farrell...he was the Rivals guy going way back...

..addressed the 10-2/11-1 idea, but didn't mention the 12-0 scenario?
 

#2Gopher said:
Hopefully the pass rush is in the grooming process and is about to explode.
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I'm of the mind that pass rushers are born and not made. The guys have to be fast enough to get off of their blocks. But the "sack percentage rate" that BrewMotivator mentions is interesting and may provide a clearer picture of our pass rush. I have no data but it seems that we are getting some pressure and I don't recall any of those instances where the opponent's QB stands unfettered in the pocket with no one getting within 15 feet of him. Go Gophers!
 



Rossi also seems pretty conservative with his blitzes, but when he sends them they seem to work great.
 

I think the lack of explosive plays can also be attributed to the offense dominating and not risking many deep shots. I think they’ll open that up at times still this year.
 

allthgoodnamesrgone said:
No kidding! And total kick return yardage is pretty low too.
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Here's a record that is individual-impressive but team-insulting: Dec. 28, 2012

HOUSTON (AP) - Gopher senior Troy Stoudermire has broken the NCAA record for career kickoff return yards on the opening kickoff against Texas Tech in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
 

FanSinceTheFifties said:
Here's a record that is individual-impressive but team-insulting: Dec. 28, 2012

HOUSTON (AP) - Gopher senior Troy Stoudermire has broken the NCAA record for career kickoff return yards on the opening kickoff against Texas Tech in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
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Exactly. Great player, but a bittersweet record to hold...
 

I don’t sweat the pass rush, it’s just one element of an overall pass D. Look at Payton T from MSU, sure we didn’t get a lot of sacks, but stifled the passing game nonetheless - with their best receiver back.
 


upnorthkid said:
i do worry about the pass rush. we will be in close games at some point this year and we don't have someone who's proven their a gamebreaker on the edge thus far. Undoubtedly there will be a time when a team is trying to make a late drive to tie or win and we'll need to see if someone can fill that role (was a huge reason why Michigan was successful last year was their edge rush)
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Danny Striggow, No. 92, is coming on strong.
 


Rossi has said on one of the pre/post game videos that the D could get a lot more sacks if they blitzed more BUT they would also give up more big plays AND stopping big/explosive plays is a more important stat if you want to win games. As BtownGopher noted above, when Rossi does blitz they seem pretty effective
 

BleedGopher said:
per Kyle:


1. Tanner Morgan​

Morgan had a career day against Michigan State finishing 23 for 26 passing for 268 yards and three touchdowns with a QBR of 97.5. For the season, Morgan has been playing at an elite level this season completing 77.2% of his passes for 886 yards and seven touchdown passes. His 88.7 QBR is currently fifth in the nation.
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Love the article and love Tanner but lets not downplay his past success. I definitely wouldn't consider Saturday a career day.

Which day would you rather have?
23 for 26, 268 yards, 3 TD, O Int - Saturday vs. Michigan State
21 for 22, 396 yards, 4 TD, 0 Int - Purdue, 2019
18 for 20, 339 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int - Penn State, 2019
 

Not going to lie, he talks 10-2. At this point, that would be a disappointment to me.
It would be fine, no doubt, especially if it comes with a BT west title, but I have to believe aspirations around the program this year are much higher than 10-2.
 

diefirma said:
Rossi has said on one of the pre/post game videos that the D could get a lot more sacks if they blitzed more BUT they would also give up more big plays AND stopping big/explosive plays is a more important stat if you want to win games. As BtownGopher noted above, when Rossi does blitz they seem pretty effective
Click to expand...
100% They play base most of the time and are good at it. They have been able to handle teams so far without resorting to blitzing much. This, to me, signals a rock solid defense.
 

Go Gophs said:
Not going to lie, he talks 10-2. At this point, that would be a disappointment to me.
It would be fine, no doubt, especially if it comes with a BT west title, but I have to believe aspirations around the program this year are much higher than 10-2.
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Not sure 10-2 can ever really be called disappointing. That said it really boils down to where the 2 comes from.

Losses to Bowling Green and Illinois last year were frustrating because we should have been the better team. Losses to Ohio State and Iowa while not the result we want, were a little easier to deal with given the opponent and other circumstances (road against Iowa, Mo going down against Ohio State...).

Think a lot of times people get caught looking at just the record and not what is rolled up into that record.
 

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