Yahoo: Ranking the four most likely potential first-round upsets (#1. MTS over Minn)

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BleedGopher

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per Yahoo:

1. No. 12 Middle Tennessee (30-4) over No. 5 Minnesota (24-9)

One year after Middle Tennessee stunned Michigan State in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, a more accomplished Blue Raiders team will try to again leave its mark on March. They arrive in Milwaukee brimming with confidence after a 30-win season that included victories over Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, UNC Wilmington and Belmont. Dynamic guard Giddy Potts and standout forward Reggie Upshaw are again two of Middle Tennessee’s top players, but the arrival of high-flying 6-foot-8 Arkansas transfer Jacorey Williams has elevated the Blue Raders to a level not even last season’s team could reach. That trio possesses high-major-caliber athleticism and accounts for 63.5 percent of Middle Tennessee’s scoring and 54.4 percent of its rebounding. What may ultimately determine whether Middle Tennessee can topple a second straight Big Ten team is if it can take care of the ball against Minnesota’s ball pressure and score at the rim despite the Gophers’ size and length in the paint. The Blue Raiders are among the most two-point-reliant teams in the country, but Minnesota is exceptional defending the rim thanks to Reggie Lynch’s ability to alter shots in the paint. Ken Pomeroy’s odds of an upset: 45 percent

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/rankin...t-round-ncaa-tournament-upsets-143058262.html

Go Gophers!!
 

One of their "marquee" wins is Belmont!!!! Super!
 

With so many people predicting an 'upset', at what point would an MTSU win no longer be considered an upset? We may have already reached that critical point to where us winning the game would be the true upset, at least in the minds of many of the media. A curious phenomenon indeed.
 

If you're the kind of guy or gal who believes in "bulletin board material" to help motivate our team, there is plenty of it.
 

Seany said:
With so many people predicting an 'upset', at what point would an MTSU win no longer be considered an upset? We may have already reached that critical point to where us winning the game would be the true upset, at least in the minds of many of the media. A curious phenomenon indeed.
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Go Gophers!!
 


"What may ultimately determine whether Middle Tennessee can topple a second straight Big Ten team is if it can take care of the ball against Minnesota’s ball pressure"

will there be ball pressure?
 

Keep it coming. The more that think they will lose, the better.
 


Seany said:
With so many people predicting an 'upset', at what point would an MTSU win no longer be considered an upset? We may have already reached that critical point to where us winning the game would be the true upset, at least in the minds of many of the media. A curious phenomenon indeed.
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We are 1 point Vegas underdogs right now, so I'd say we are at that point.
 



And what so many people don't understand is that VEGAS KNOWS WHAT THEY ARE DOING!!! OMG, how does Vegas make the most money? By having the most people make bad bets. They heard all of the talk by the lazy talking heads who simply relied on their gut feelings and absolutely ZERO statistical evidence, all pick MTSU to upset the Gophers, and Vegas is hoping like crazy that their making MTSU a favorite, but only BARELY a favorite, will help reinforce the idea that MTSU could win the game, to get people to think its a great team to pick as their upset special. Then when the Gophers win, Vegas will keep ALL of that money people bet on MTSU. It wouldn't shock me if Minnesota ended up as a 3-4 pt favorite by the time the game is played. Only way for Vegas to continue to get more and more people putting money on MTSU. Then a comfortable win by Minnesota makes Vegas even more money.

Now I'm not claiming to be an expert, not in the least, its just my theory, it makes sense to me. I might be wrong, I admit as much. But it is what I would do if I was a Vegas bookmaker.
 

KillmeNow said:
And what so many people don't understand is that VEGAS KNOWS WHAT THEY ARE DOING!!! OMG, how does Vegas make the most money? By having the most people make bad bets. They heard all of the talk by the lazy talking heads who simply relied on their gut feelings and absolutely ZERO statistical evidence, all pick MTSU to upset the Gophers, and Vegas is hoping like crazy that their making MTSU a favorite, but only BARELY a favorite, will help reinforce the idea that MTSU could win the game, to get people to think its a great team to pick as their upset special. Then when the Gophers win, Vegas will keep ALL of that money people bet on MTSU. It wouldn't shock me if Minnesota ended up as a 3-4 pt favorite by the time the game is played. Only way for Vegas to continue to get more and more people putting money on MTSU. Then a comfortable win by Minnesota makes Vegas even more money.

Now I'm not claiming to be an expert, not in the least, its just my theory, it makes sense to me. I might be wrong, I admit as much. But it is what I would do if I was a Vegas bookmaker.
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Exactly. Vegas doesn't pick who is going to win, Vegas adjusts their line to make sure they make money. The reason for the current line is that there is a ton of bets on MTSU, so they lower the line to get people to bet money on Minnesota.
 

mcal24 said:
Exactly. Vegas doesn't pick who is going to win, Vegas adjusts their line to make sure they make money. The reason for the current line is that there is a ton of bets on MTSU, so they lower the line to get people to bet money on Minnesota.
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In the run to the Final Four (assuming it actually happened, being I watched it), the big "upset" pick was #8 Temple over #1 Minnesota. And then Clemson was supposed to do it (and almost did!), and then UCLA was supposed to wipe the court with the Gophers. And if it wasn't for the huge momentum shifter of that phantom charge on Courtney James against RICK Pitino's Wildcats, they might have been in the final as well.

Point is that no matter when MN football or basketball plays, they are always supposed to be pushovers.

I'll say this much, the only way the Gophers lose this game, IMO, is if Lynch and/or Murphy get in foul trouble. Problem is, the refs know this too, and we'll see how much the refs subconsciously will help an "underdog"...a couple of phantom fouls on either of these guys and the game is a true toss-up.
 

Seany said:
With so many people predicting an 'upset', at what point would an MTSU win no longer be considered an upset? We may have already reached that critical point to where us winning the game would be the true upset, at least in the minds of many of the media. A curious phenomenon indeed.
Click to expand...

Never because it's a seeded tournament, so the Gophers are by definition not the underdog.
 



Ski U Master said:
Never because it's a seeded tournament, so the Gophers are by definition not the underdog.
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I read his comment as us being the "effective" underdog (vegas, popular thinking, etc), not the actual underdog (seed).
 

Minnesota continues to be the 'Rodney Dangerfield' of the Collegiate Sports World.
 


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