Wojo's Pigskin Picks: Wolverines can't fall into classic Hawkeye trap
Bob WojnowskiThe Detroit News
Detroit – Iowa is a quaint, deceptively odd place. It’s relentlessly flat and friendly and proud of it. It hosts major-league baseball games in cornfields. Among its cherished landmarks is the World’s Largest Truckstop, which is an actual thing.
Yes, Iowa has lots of ears, but no airs. Same thing with the ground-based football team, which plows ahead, year after year, same coaches, same immobile scarecrow quarterbacks, same beefy tight ends, same super-simple game plans. Kinnick Stadium is a happy little place, and the Hawkeyes welcome folks with a firm handshake and a harmless offense. The field is so meticulously manicured, the players avoid stepping on the end-zone sod, and politely encourage visitors to do the same.
Then the game begins and it turns into a Field of Screams. Perhaps you know the noisy history. Iowa usually isn’t good enough to win anything big, but always cheerfully willing to ruin it for others. Five of the last six times the Hawkeyes have hosted a top-five team, they’ve pulled the upset, including a 14-13 squeaker over No. 2 Michigan in 2016. As Jim Harbaugh noted this week, Kinnick is where “top-five teams go to die,” although I would add “for no apparent reason.”
No. 4 Michigan visits Saturday and must be careful not to be duped. I don’t know if the Hawkeyes are playing possum and saving up all their good plays for the Wolverines. But right now, I’m fairly certain they’d struggle to pass for even 65 yards against Michigan State’s secondary. Seriously, that bad!
The thing about the Hawkeyes is, they’ve perfected the art of looking godawful for 57 minutes, and then you glance up at the scoreboard and it’s 10-7 with three minutes left. (Although sometimes in the Big Ten championship game you glance up and it’s 42-3 with three minutes left). The Hawkeyes are a much different team in Kinnick, graphically illustrated by their 7-3 smashing of South Dakota State in the opener. They lull you with a dazzling array of punts, then smack you with their top-rated defense, which allows only 5.8 points per game. Michigan topped 5.8 just three seconds into last week’s victory against Maryland by precisely aiming a kickoff at an opposing player and recovering the face-fumble.
That’s how proficient the Wolverines have been in their 4-0 start, leading the nation with 50 points per game despite being forced to play every game at home. Their first road trip could make them nervous, which is why they asked to wear their yellow pants and requested it not be a night game. They haven't won in Iowa City since 2005 and are taking no chances. They even practiced the recover-your-own-fumble drill with quarterback J.J. McCarthy last week, hoping to remove the fumble-return TD from the Hawkeyes’ four-play playbook. Their go-to scoring plays, in no particular order: Interception return, fumble return, 51-yard field goal, safety.
The Hawkeyes (3-1) will be out for sweet revenge, and they still control their destiny in the Big Ten’s junior division. It’s not wise to patronize the scruffy little squads over there, as Michigan State learned last week. Minnesota had a blast splashing around in the Shallow End of Spartan Stadium, while the Spartans performed massive bellyflops. The result was a 34-7 victory that required such minimal perspiration by the Gophers, they didn’t need deodorant afterward.
In back-to-back blowout losses, MeLL Tucker (#TuckSweatin) discovered the harsh reality that Kenneth Walker III really is gone and unlikely to return. The Spartans can begin their recovery by practicing math. After MSU’s defensive backs repeatedly escorted Gophers to the end zone, coordinator Scottie “Don’t Touch the Beard!” Hazelton suggested it was “death by inches.”
Minnesota piled up 508 total yards, so technically it was death by 18,288 inches. It just seemed like more. It’d be fascinating to see Iowa’s offense go against MSU’s defense, a large immobile object against an easily movable force. I’m guessing the line of scrimmage would never budge and the game would be called at curfew.
MSU (2-2) now heads to Maryland, which loves the whole wide-open-receivers concept. While watching MSU game tape this week, the Terps reportedly consumed nearly 60 pounds of popcorn. The Spartans are in a gruesome stretch of the schedule, and if they’re not careful, Tucker could be MeLLLL in a hurry.
Listen, this is no time for fans to overreact. That’s my job. The Spartans were 11-2 last year but have looked disoriented and confused this season. Strange. It’s almost as if it’s not an ideal strategy to dump half your team and restock by portal-gorging every year. In the meantime, it’s imperative Tucker keeps encouraging his players (#TuckClappin) and makes sure all defensive statistics are redacted in the game notes.
MSU’s defense can’t possibly be that bad. Michigan’s offense can’t possibly be this good. Iowa’s upset mindset can’t possibly be this mesmerizing. Maryland can’t possibly be this adequate. Odds are, someone’s getting duped this weekend and I have (barely) educated guesses on who.
The picks
▶ Michigan at Iowa: Blake Corum keeps rolling up yards and touchdowns, and with his stout stature, has been described as a bowling ball. Only in football and the gourd industry is “bowling ball” considered a complimentary term. Against Iowa’s defense, Corum will have to hit several 7-10-yard splits. Another fun fact about Iowa: It’s the nation’s largest pork producer. Another warning to the Wolverines: Fat, highly ranked hogs go first to slaughter. Pick: Michigan, 23-10▶ Michigan State at Maryland: It’s unfair to judge #TuckStillComin based on his ginormous, virtually unprecedented contract. I mean, come on, people. It’s not like anyone ever obsessed about Harbaugh’s ginormous contract, not ever ever never never. Nope, not once! Truth is, it takes time to build a program no matter how many zeroes on the paycheck, something rational fans would understand if rational fans existed. Pick: Maryland, 38-23
▶ Purdue at Minnesota: Gophers quarterback Tanner Morgan was an underwhelming 23-for-26 against the Spartans’ defense, completing misfiring on three passes. He’ll have to be much more efficient against Purdue, unless the Boilermakers dig up one of their famously ridiculous ways to lose. The 4-0 Gophers popped into the Top 25, and it’s important for P.J. Fleck (#KeepRowin) to remind them they haven’t beaten anyone yet. Pick: Minnesota, 37-20
▶ Rutgers at Ohio State: I noticed 3-1 Rutgers has a top-10 defense, which is probably an accounting error. Even if true, it doesn’t really matter because, as everyone knows, Columbus is where “top-10 defenses go to die.” Here’s my deep-dive analysis of this game: Greg Schiano has done a respectable job with the Scarlet Knights who cannot be overlooked … ohhh the meatloaf special looks good … so the Buckeyes better be more focused than I am … how’s the lemon meringue pie? Pick: Ohio State, 52 zzzzz.
▶ Illinois at Wisconsin: Bret Bielema came to Illinois to beef up in every way, and that includes beefing up the actual team. The Badgers don’t look like their stocky selves, which is a surprise considering no one has spotted a salad in Wisconsin’s football facility since the mid-1950s. At great risk to my long-shattered credibility, I’m gonna hop on the Bielema Beefwagon against his former team.
