Wisconsin vs Minnesota - Your Breakdowns

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Yah-E

Yah-E

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OK, love to hear and understand your take on this game. Your thoughts, fears, absolutes, and/or confidence on the positives and negatives going into this "WINNER TAKES ALL" game.

Here are my thoughts

What should get us the "W"
  • We beat them last year AT their house and WITH Jonathan Taylor (supposedly their big weapon this year)
  • We beat them last year WITH our TM, TJ, MI and we still have these guys PLUS better versions of RB, DD, RS, and SB (we have more weapons this year)
  • It's at our house and with all the success we've had, Fleck et al will get our men well prepared for this regular season finale
  • We have AW Jr back on D which we didn't even have last year against them
  • 12th man advantage (y'all know what I'm saying)
What could get us the "L"
  • Our FCUKING special teams and kicking game! Why can't Ryerse kick deeper kickoffs? Field goals and field position can easily break us in the game....most of us remember that 2005 lost to Wisconsin on that last play of the game with 38 second left in the game when we're up 34-31 where our punter mishandled the snap and Wisconsin blocked and recovered the ball in our endzone for the win! 0:38 seconds left, we got the game, just PUNT the ball! This game still hunts me. For whatever reason, our special teams play scares the SH!T out of me
  • Weather - wet, cold, snow....both our running game and passing game potency will be reduced
In summary, we beat those BADgers last year at their place and we both pretty much had the same teams. Their QB has changed, but don't think he's any better than Alex Hornibrook. On the other side, we now have MUCH more offensive weapons than last year AND we got Antoine W Jr back.

We should win this one! 28-17! :party: (y)

Your thoughts and takes?
 

They won’t be able to stop our passing attack. However, we could certainly stop ourselves with drops, tipped balls, spotty protection as at Iowa. How will they defend us this year? They are vulnerable on the back end.

We won’t be able to stop their rushing attack. It’s not only the incredible and incredibly difficult to tackle Taylor but they love to run their WRs on jet sweeps and misdirection has been the bane of this defense. Gut check time. Taylor seems to struggle with fumbles.

Jack Coan has had a remarkably efficient year for a guy that looked absolutely terrible as a freshman. It helps he has Cephus back, as good as almost any in the league. We cannot give him time back there ala Stanley or he will make the throws.

Their kicker is lights out. Ours is more limited on leg strength but hopefully accurate on the shorter range.

Special teams - we are amongst the worst in the nation leading to huge field position swings. Sadly this probably won’t improve this season. Too many young guys playing? Mental mistakes. Kicking out of bounds cannot happen, ever again,

Overall very optimistic as they will not be able to stop the offense. Our defense vs their offense is the key, and the mistakes, turnover unknowns.

HUGE GAME
 

The Gophers have got to be confident but not cocky, that's the key.
 

I’m worried about the snow/rain next weekend. That could really hurt our passing attack. Also need to win both lines of scrimmage
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Overall very optimistic as they will not be able to stop the offense. Our defense vs their offense is the key, and the mistakes, turnover unknowns.

HUGE GAME
Click to expand...

Our defense slowing Taylor will certainly be a key but I actually think getting off to a quick start on offense will be even more important. Coan has been solid but he is not a great QB, key is to make him have to beat us with his arm as opposed to just turning and handing off to Taylor all game.
 


Be really nice if Douglas could get another TD return or if the defense could generate a touchdown. I think the game will come down to that type of play, whichever team makes it.
 

Brandon said:
I’m worried about the snow/rain next weekend. That could really hurt our passing attack. Also need to win both lines of scrimmage
Click to expand...
Wind hurts a passing attack more than anything else. Moisture has an effect on drops and ball security, but a slick field hurts DBs way more than WRs.
 

We will need to score at least 31 points any way we can. We can do that. Go Gophers!!!
 

Dink and dunk short passes with YAC may work. The key is to contain Wisconsin's Defense. If they get to Tanner Morgan, it will be a long afternoon.

On offense, they have Taylor and the new back that the Gophers have to figure out how to shut down.

Weather is a huge uncontrolled variable that may take away the home advantage.
 



My biggest Wisconsin v Minnesota breakdown had to have been the blocked punt returned for a TD, when really only a safety with time expiring should have been conceded. That would have preserved the Axe. I nearly lost it.
 

This is super cliche, but we have to get an early lead. Paul Chryst has often shown that he's quick to go away from the run and try to force the passing game, despite having an all-time talent in Jonathan Taylor. That's a big part of why we won last year.

I'm not convinced the weather will hurt our passing attack all that much. Wisconsin has some very iffy defensive backs, and I think a slick field could mean a lot of broken ankles with our route running. TM is smart enough to avoid major mistakes, and Fleck showed with the Nebraska game that he knows how to get the boys ready for difficult conditions.
 

hungan1 said:
Dink and dunk short passes with YAC may work. The key is to contain Wisconsin's Defense. If they get to Tanner Morgan, it will be a long afternoon.

On offense, they have Taylor and the new back that the Gophers have to figure out how to shut down.

Weather is a huge uncontrolled variable that may take away the home advantage.
Click to expand...
Fair weather STHs are going to have to either suck it up OR give their tickets away to other faithful that will use them. This is not the game to let inclement weather not have the place full. I'm from Georgia for god's sake and will be there relishing the event, especially the conditions. This also goes for the students. Go to wherever for turkey, ham, or vegan dinner on Thursday, but get back on Saturday to support the team.
 

I think bad weather favors the Gophers, even in bad weather our passing game would be effective. In bad weather, I am not sure their’s can be. We can stop a one dimensional Wisconsin, without having to respect play action.
 



Start fast, accelerate in the middle, and finish strong. Need to do all three to win convincingly. I think we need to outscore them in this one. I don’t see our D shutting Taylor down. They will be out for blood after last year’s result.

38-31 Gophers hang on
 

Pompous Elitist said:
They won’t be able to stop our passing attack. However, we could certainly stop ourselves with drops, tipped balls, spotty protection as at Iowa. How will they defend us this year? They are vulnerable on the back end.

We won’t be able to stop their rushing attack. It’s not only the incredible and incredibly difficult to tackle Taylor but they love to run their WRs on jet sweeps and misdirection has been the bane of this defense. Gut check time. Taylor seems to struggle with fumbles.

Jack Coan has had a remarkably efficient year for a guy that looked absolutely terrible as a freshman. It helps he has Cephus back, as good as almost any in the league. We cannot give him time back there ala Stanley or he will make the throws.

Their kicker is lights out. Ours is more limited on leg strength but hopefully accurate on the shorter range.

Special teams - we are amongst the worst in the nation leading to huge field position swings. Sadly this probably won’t improve this season. Too many young guys playing? Mental mistakes. Kicking out of bounds cannot happen, ever again,

Overall very optimistic as they will not be able to stop the offense. Our defense vs their offense is the key, and the mistakes, turnover unknowns.

HUGE GAME
Click to expand...

Their kicker is not lights out. He is 10/15, Lantz is 6/9, same percentage. The guy that hit the 62 yarder is a different kicker and that was his only attempt.
 

btowngopher said:
Their kicker is not lights out. He is 10/15, Lantz is 6/9, same percentage. The guy that hit the 62 yarder is a different kicker and that was his only attempt.
Click to expand...

Good point and I was repeating some hearsay but Hintz does have a giant leg. He’s led the conference in average kickoff yardage and is either first or second in touchback percentage the last 3 years Looks like only 1 kick out of bounds during that time as well. If it comes down to a long FG they have a decent chance. Clearly he must not be consistent if he lost out to a guy that hasn’t been extraordinary. It’s unfortunate but they seem to have at least a slight advantage on special teams and a puncher’s chance from the 40-45 yard line.
 

The Gophers have to hold their own in the trenches to win the game. They should have beaten Iowa anyway, but the Iowa defensive line outperformed the Minnesota offensive line and the Iowa offensive line outperformed the Minnesota defensive line. A performance like the Gophers front 4 (or maybe more accurately front 7 as you can include the linebackers in this) had against Iowa or Northwestern will not get it done. The offensive line (and TE's) can't perform like they did in the 4th quarter of the Penn State game or through much of the Iowa game. I wish the running game was coming on as the season was coming to a close like it was last year. One of my hopes in this area is Mohamed Ibrahim looked really good on the inside runs against Northwestern. Maybe they need his style of hitting the hole harder/faster is a better fit right now?

The other key is special teams as others have already said. The Gophers give up so much hidden yardage on kickoffs and punts and have to get inside the 25 to feel comfortable kicking a field goal. On the other side of the coin, the Gophers have not showed any interest in setting up a punt return all year and basically are happy to start on the 25 after a kickoff if the opposition will give them the opportunity. They've lost this battle decisively almost all year long. Football Outsiders ranks the Gophers special teams 101 out of 130 teams in the nation and I believe others have them ranked even lower (Ryan Burns mentioned someone having them 128 and that was before the Northwestern debacle). It truly says a lot about the rest of the team that they've been able to overcome the special teams in 10 of 11 games this year.

The only thing I am confident about with this game is Wisconsin is going to come in to this game and run their stuff on offense and on defense I am confident they will drop linebackers in the hopes of Tanner throwing a pick as that seems to be one of the few areas where he's been mistake prone.

Both teams need to hold on to the ball to win, but that should go without saying
 

Yah-E said:
OK, love to hear and understand your take on this game. Your thoughts, fears, absolutes, and/or confidence on the positives and negatives going into this "WINNER TAKES ALL" game.

Here are my thoughts

What should get us the "W"
  • We beat them last year AT their house and WITH Jonathan Taylor (supposedly their big weapon this year)
  • We beat them last year WITH our TM, TJ, MI and we still have these guys PLUS better versions of RB, DD, RS, and SB (we have more weapons this year)
  • It's at our house and with all the success we've had, Fleck et al will get our men well prepared for this regular season finale
  • We have AW Jr back on D which we didn't even have last year against them
  • 12th man advantage (y'all know what I'm saying)
What could get us the "L"
  • Our FCUKING special teams and kicking game! Why can't Ryerse kick deeper kickoffs? Field goals and field position can easily break us in the game....most of us remember that 2005 lost to Wisconsin on that last play of the game with 38 second left in the game when we're up 34-31 where our punter mishandled the snap and Wisconsin blocked and recovered the ball in our endzone for the win! 0:38 seconds left, we got the game, just PUNT the ball! This game still hunts me. For whatever reason, our special teams play scares the SH!T out of me
  • Weather - wet, cold, snow....both our running game and passing game potency will be reduced
In summary, we beat those BADgers last year at their place and we both pretty much had the same teams. Their QB has changed, but don't think he's any better than Alex Hornibrook. On the other side, we now have MUCH more offensive weapons than last year AND we got Antoine W Jr back.

We should win this one! 28-17! :party: (y)

Your thoughts and takes?
Click to expand...
I agree with you on our poor special team play. Our offense and defense are playing well but Ryerse's kickoffs are really hurting our field position.
 

I feel like the Gophers need to punch first in this game. Getting behind and letting the defense pin their ears back is not where we want to be.

Gophers need to keep the defense guessing as to what we are running and get some quick hitters to start out with.
 

My breakdowns!

Only when we lost to Iowa. Never again, I say. Never again!
 

Going to need the Gophers D Line and O Line to play a great game. On the defensive line can they go a little heavier up front personnel wise? I noticed Micah Dew-Treadway was getting pushed back a few yards vs Iowa. The Gophers needs an OJ Smith like effort on interior D Line this week. On Offense pass protect and provide some run gaps and the Gophers offense should be able take care of business.
 

WorkingMyTailOff said:
Going to need the Gophers D Line and O Line to play a great game. On the defensive line can they go a little heavier up front personnel wise? I noticed Micah Dew-Treadway was getting pushed back a few yards vs Iowa. The Gophers needs an OJ Smith like effort on interior D Line this week. On Offense pass protect and provide some run gaps and the Gophers offense should be able take care of business.
Click to expand...
Maybe it was just me, but it seemed like he played way less against Northwestern. I agree that the defensive and offensive lines need to have their best game.
 

MinnesotaNice said:
Maybe it was just me, but it seemed like he played way less against Northwestern. I agree that the defensive and offensive lines need to have their best game.
Click to expand...
Maybe so? I did notice Keonte Schad both on the attempted fumble recovery, but also being disruptive on another play.
 

College football is unpredictable as so much depends on players' focus and mindsets on game day. These are fairly volatile factors. In the case of Gophers vs. Badgers, it could swing either way: a 21 point win or 21 point loss.
 

Setting the edge is going to be key in this game. We did a horrible job of that in the Iowa game and it really cost us.
 

Last year we had Cashman and Julian Huff as a third linebacker option against run/ and in in coverage vs their run/TE release/4 WR look...SoriMarin has not been that guy. Not sure if Williamson is that guy.

St Juste has been good in coverage, trust him in one on one; needs to hold up in tackling the run. Coney needs to be strong in one on one pass coverage; like Coney against the WI run.

Last year we had Jacob Huff as a tackling safety paired with Howden. Winfield/Howden needs to outperform that unit.

Renner, Dew-Treadway, Schad, DeLatti, Coughlin need to play out of their heads...not sure I trust Teague, Devers, Mafe vs WI oline.

Blitz pickup is huge vs the WI defense. Leonhard dials it up creatively from everywhere. Have to hit the hot routes. RBs have to see it coming. I like the six olineman package with Kieft staying in.

we got three ints from Sconny last year and a fumble and a punt return and a missed FG...that's a lot of breaks,

�
tacklesmisc
TOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Jacob Huff10600100
Thomas Barber6200.5000
Carter Coughlin620.51010
Julian Huff4300000
Jordan Howden4200000
Coney Durr3300000
Terell Smith3300100
Blake Cashman3200000
Kamal Martin3200000
Chris Williamson3100100
Gary Moore300.51.5000
Esezi Otomewo2211000
Kiondre Thomas2200000
Winston DeLattiboudere2100000
Tai'yon Devers2100000
Royal Silver2100000
O.J. Smith1100000
Justus Harris1100000
Jerry Gibson1000000
Demetrius Douglas0000001
Boye Mafe0000010
TEAM613524320
 
Last edited:

I'm glad Wisconsin showed a lot of wrinkles vs. Purdue. The defensive staff seems to have a great plan headed into every game, but if something unexpected happens they're slow to adjust. SDSU was running a lot of new stuff...Iowa took advantage of the soft zone coverage...NW started running various flavors of inside zone and option when Johnson got injured. In each case the staff stopped the bleeding after a couple drives, but it's nice when they have a plan for as much as possible in advance...
 

When we do beat their coverage, we can't drop the routes. Like Iowa and NW this year, WI dline got lots of deflections, knock downs vs Tanner last year...he has to be smart, but confident.
 

swingman said:
Last year we had Cashman and Julian Huff as a third linebacker option against run/ and in in coverage vs their run/TE release/4 WR look...SoriMarin has not been that guy. Not sure if Williamson is that guy.

St Juste has been good in coverage, trust him in one on one; needs to hold up in tackling the run. Coney needs to be strong in one on one pass coverage; like Coney against the WI run.

Last year we had Jacob Huff as a tackling safety paired with Howden. Winfield/Howden needs to outperform that unit.

Renner, Dew-Treadway, Schad, DeLatti, Coughlin need to play out of their heads...not sure I trust Teague, Devers, Mafe vs WI oline.

Blitz pickup is huge vs the WI defense. Leonhard dials it up creatively from everywhere. Have to hit the hot routes. RBs have to see it coming. I like the six olineman package with Kieft staying in.

we got three ints from Sconny last year and a fumble and a punt return...that's a lot of breaks,

�
tacklesmisc
TOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Jacob Huff10600100
Thomas Barber6200.5000
Carter Coughlin620.51010
Julian Huff4300000
Jordan Howden4200000
Coney Durr3300000
Terell Smith3300100
Blake Cashman3200000
Kamal Martin3200000
Chris Williamson3100100
Gary Moore300.51.5000
Esezi Otomewo2211000
Kiondre Thomas2200000
Winston DeLattiboudere2100000
Tai'yon Devers2100000
Royal Silver2100000
O.J. Smith1100000
Justus Harris1100000
Jerry Gibson1000000
Demetrius Douglas0000001
Boye Mafe0000010
TEAM613524320
Click to expand...

Non sequitur to the thread.... but the pasted in table is nice. I couldn't figure out how to do that in the old format.
 

swingman said:
Blitz pickup is huge vs the WI defense. Leonhard dials it up creatively from everywhere. Have to hit the hot routes. RBs have to see it coming. I like the six olineman package with Kieft staying in.
Click to expand...


So much this. We should do whatever it takes to give TM2 a clean pocket and challenge their secondary with our WRs. Only consideration might be to swap out Kieft with Brooks or Ibrahim in the backfield to give us some more options (both good pass blockers).
 

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