Will our New PAC12 Additions be in for a Rude Awakening on Defense in 2024?

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99Gopher

99Gopher

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I was looking at Defensive stats and was curious about what our new additions looked like in 2022 regarding Total Defense as we know the B1G is a tough defensive conference with seven teams in the Top 20 last year. I was a little shocked as I knew the PAC 12 was weaker, but not by this much. Total Defense rankings were:
  • #60 - Washington - Opp TDs - 42
  • #71 - Oregon - Opp TDs - 43
  • #87 - UCLA - Opp TDs - 45
  • #106 - USC - Opp TDs - 54
Source: NCAA Stats

As a reference, Illini & Minn gave up a total of 16 & 18 Opp TDs respectively last year. Northwestern who we all agree was terrible last year was still 63rd in Total Defense.

In my opinion, they will all be taking a step up in weight class in terms of overall conference strength when joining the B1G. Can they maintain their lofty aspirations without a drastic improvement on the defensive side of the ball?
 
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99Gopher said:
I was looking at Defensive stats and was curious about what our new additions looked like in 2022 regarding Total Defense as we know the B1G is a tough defensive conference with seven teams in the Top 20 last year. I was a little shocked as I knew the PAC 12 was weaker, but not by this much. Total Defense rankings were:
  • #60 - Washington - Opp TDs - 42
  • #71 - Oregon - Opp TDs - 43
  • #87 - UCLA - Opp TDs - 45
  • #106 - USC - Opp TDs - 54
As a reference, Illini & Minn gave up a total of 16 & 18 Opp TDs respectively last year. Northwestern who we all agree was terrible last year was still 63rd in Total Defense.

In my opinion, they will all be taking a step up in weight class in terms of overall conference strength when joining the B1G. Can they maintain their lofty aspirations without a drastic improvement on the defensive side of the ball?
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Backing up the original post, here are their defensive EPA ranks:
  • Oregon #105
  • USC #106
  • UCLA #113
  • Washington #117
Source: https://www.cfb-graphs.com/
 


I watched quite a bit of Pac this last season. Not one team really cared about defense. Maybe OrST and Utah, but they would be ranked in the lower half of the B1G. That is why they fail on a national level.

2022 B1G National Rank
Pts/Yds
ILL 1/3
IOW 2/2
MIN 4/9
MCH 7/6
PSU 9/17
WIS 17/11
OSU 24/14
MD 43/43
MSU 74/101
PUR 76/53
NEB 77/100
NW 83/63
RUT 96/38
IND 120/119

2022 Pac National Rank
Pts/Yds
ORST 16/25
UTA 27/27
WSU 38/86
WSH 58/60
ORE 75/71
CAL 79/111
UCLA 92/87
USC 94/106
ASU 107/104
STAN 113/114
ARI 126/125
COL 131/130
 

highwayman said:
I watched quite a bit of Pac this last season. Not one team really cared about defense. Maybe OrST and Utah, but they would be ranked in the lower half of the B1G. That is why they fail on a national level.

2022 B1G National Rank
Pts/Yds
ILL 1/3
IOW 2/2
MIN 4/9
MCH 7/6
PSU 9/17
WIS 17/11
OSU 24/14
MD 43/43
MSU 74/101
PUR 76/53
NEB 77/100
NW 83/63
RUT 96/38
IND 120/119

2022 Pac National Rank
Pts/Yds
ORST 16/25
UTA 27/27
WSU 38/86
WSH 58/60
ORE 75/71
CAL 79/111
UCLA 92/87
USC 94/106
ASU 107/104
STAN 113/114
ARI 126/125
COL 131/130
Click to expand...
It will be interesting to see how they hold up in the B1G. As of last year, they had 2 defenses (Ore #26 St & Utah #27) with rankings above 50 in Total Defense. That's why I think it's had to gauge how good the USC offense is when you play that many mediocre/terrible defenses.

Just a NOTE on USC, they scored 54 TDs & gave up 54 TDs. The only reason they weren't 6 -6 last year was that they had Superman (Caleb Williams) and a turnover differential of +22. Like one analyst said, there is no way they sustain a +22 turnover differential in back to back years, so that Defense has to be a lot better.
 


Whyowa picked the wrong year to have the lofty "point total minimum" requirement.
 

On the flip side, all four coming were 2022 top 10 in Scoring Offense. B1G had three teams in the top 65 (MN 4th at #66). It will be interesting to say the least.
 






99Gopher said:
It will be interesting to see how they hold up in the B1G. As of last year, they had 2 defenses (Ore #26 St & Utah #27) with rankings above 50 in Total Defense. That's why I think it's had to gauge how good the USC offense is when you play that many mediocre/terrible defenses.

Just a NOTE on USC, they scored 54 TDs & gave up 54 TDs. The only reason they weren't 6 -6 last year was that they had Superman (Caleb Williams) and a turnover differential of +22. Like one analyst said, there is no way they sustain a +22 turnover differential in back to back years, so that Defense has to be a lot better.
Click to expand...

USC will be fine adopting to B1G. This is only year 2 under their coach and even with the new transfer rules, it takes awhile to build up your program. I think USC should actually be pretty dominant this year in the PAC but will come back done to earth a bit with Williams leaves. However, I think they are one of the few programs that will have no trouble coming up with NIL $s so they will be stacked for years into the future. That is why I am upset about MN losing our opportunity to win the West. With USC being grouped in, our road just got way harder for any sort of a division title.
 

The PAC defense is their offense. There will be lots of adjustments coming into the Big Ten.

It is a bummer that the Gophers will not have a chance for the Big Ten West title in 2024 when the Big Ten East and Big Ten West go away.
 

csom_1991 said:
USC will be fine adopting to B1G. This is only year 2 under their coach and even with the new transfer rules, it takes awhile to build up your program. I think USC should actually be pretty dominant this year in the PAC but will come back done to earth a bit with Williams leaves. However, I think they are one of the few programs that will have no trouble coming up with NIL $s so they will be stacked for years into the future. That is why I am upset about MN losing our opportunity to win the West. With USC being grouped in, our road just got way harder for any sort of a division title.
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I disagree on the assertion that the USC Defense was that bad because it was year one and simply throwing enough NIL money at them will make them great. For some reason, Riley has this commitment to his DC - Alex Grinch, who was with him for the prior 3 yrs at Okla as well. They never fielded anything but avg defenses and from what I have read Riley had plenty of NIL resources in Norman as the Sooners are basically their pro team. If NIL money was the main measure of success then Texas A&M should win the Natty this year as they basically bought last year's team. I guess we'll see on the field in a few short weeks.

This is almost the reverse of what we see at Iowa with Ferentzs', but Grinch isn't family.
 



Looking forward to hosting USC or UCLA for a game in mid-November when the Dilly Bar guy will think it's wintery enough so he can have a treat.
 

Are their offenses so good because their defenses are bad? Or are their defenses good and the offenses are truly great? I think it’s a causation/correlation argument. Honestly how much of B1G defensive stats are inflated from piss poor offenses?

I liken it to Oregon in the teens. They had high octane offenses that transformed CFB. Then they’d play a top SEC/B1G team and put up modest numbers. The new teams will have a hard time with our weather and brand of football but they’ll adjust. It’ll likely be that they dent our D metrics and we dent their O metrics.
 

Gopher_Devil said:
Are their offenses so good because their defenses are bad? Or are their defenses good and the offenses are truly great? I think it’s a causation/correlation argument. Honestly how much of B1G defensive stats are inflated from piss poor offenses?

I liken it to Oregon in the teens. They had high octane offenses that transformed CFB. Then they’d play a top SEC/B1G team and put up modest numbers. The new teams will have a hard time with our weather and brand of football but they’ll adjust. It’ll likely be that they dent our D metrics and we dent their O metrics.
Click to expand...

This is exactly it.

The gophers defensive numbers are helped greatly by playing northwestern and Iowa. those teams are hoping to score 20…so even if they do you’re a top defense that week giving up 20!
 

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