Missed-layup
Junior Member, a Senior Mind
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2010
- Messages
- 304
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 16
Where You Are vs. Where You Have Been
Thinking of coaching changes from a projections standpoint, two approaches initially come to mind: 1) looking at program potential, and 2) type of hire. We'll first tackle the issue of program potential. (If you have other suggestions, let us hear them in the comments section.)
Every so often, a historical power struggles under one coach, dumps him for a new one, and rebounds. Oklahoma went five straight years without a winning record from 1994-98, hired Bob Stoops, and won the national title two years later. Florida lost five games per year under Ron Zook, then lost four combined in Urban Meyer's first two seasons. They also won a title in year No. 2. Nick Saban, Mack Brown, and Pete Carroll almost immediately reversed the fortunes of Alabama, Texas and USC, respectively. Hiring a new coach doesn't make an old power good again, of course -- it has to be the right hire. I mentioned in the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac that the only reason any of these great hires were made was because the last hire was poor. But if or when the right hire is made, the rebound is so much easier when you've got historical clout. Historical programs have more money (with which they can draw the big-time coaches) and get more benefit-of-the-doubt from recruits. God bless the oligarchy known as college football.
To put numbers to this, we're going to compare how a team did the previous season to how they did in the previous 10. We will call this a team's Ratio to Recent History. We could shrink that down to an acronym, but a) it might not ever get used again after this column, b) "RTRH" doesn't exactly roll off the tongue, and c) quite frankly, there are already too many acronyms in this world. So Ratio to Recent History it is. If the ratio is above 1.0, that means the team's performance last season was higher than its 10-year baseline. Below 1.0, and it was worse. (This was attempted with five, 10 and 20 years as the baseline, and 10 was the most statistically significant.)
Do BCS conference teams who underachieved compared to recent history tend to rebound a bit faster? Yes, to an extent. Below is data collected from between the 2003-09 seasons. Where it is available (2005-09), S&P+ data is used. Before 2005, Est. S&P+ is substituted.
Ratio to Recent History and First-Year Coaches, BCS Conference Teams (2003-09)
Ratio to
Recent
History
1st-Yr Chg
in S&P+
Applicable 2010 Teams
< .75 -4.9% USC
.75 - 1.00 +2.1% Florida State, Louisville, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Virginia
1.01 - 1.25 -5.9% Cincinnati, Kansas, Kentucky, South Florida, Vanderbilt
> 1.25 N/A none
Teams who finished above or below their 10-year baseline the year before a coach was hired tended to regress to the mean in the coach's first season. If you were below the baseline (within reason), you will likely improve a bit. The first-year change of plus-2.1 percent represents approximately 4-6 spots in the S&P+ rankings.
Meanwhile, if you overachieved before losing your coach, you tend to regress by about 5.9 percent, which could mean a fall of 10-14 spots in the rankings. In theory, this makes sense -- if you overachieved, the chances are greater that your coach was hired away to a bigger job. For the five 2010 teams that fall into this quadrant, however, only one had their coach hired away (Cincinnati). Two (Kentucky, Vanderbilt) are replacing retiring coaches, and, strangely enough, two are replacing coaches who were fired for player abuse. There is not yet enough of a sample size to add "reasons for departure" into this study, but regardless, fans of these schools may be in for an unpleasant autumn.
Then there is the "< .75" quadrant. The sample size is far from plentiful (six teams in eight years), but it appears that when a team bottoms out, a new coach must come in and build from scratch. There might not be a quick fix. Here are the six teams who landed in this quadrant: 2003 Nebraska, 2005 and 2008 Kansas State, 2006 Miami, 2004 Florida and 2009 USC. Nebraska had taken a step backwards in 2003, but in their first season under Bill Callahan they took a few more (a 16.7-percent drop compared to the previous season's Est. S&P+). Kansas State improved slightly in 2006 (+3.9 percent) and regressed in 2009 (-6.8 percent). Miami regressed in 2007 (-6.6 percent), while Florida slightly improved (+1.8 percent). Three of five teams have regressed by at least six percent, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that the same thing would happen to USC this coming season.
What do we see when we look at the same data for non-BCS automatic qualifying conferences?
Ratio to Recent History and First-Year Coaches, Non-BCS Conference Teams (2003-09)
Ratio to
Recent
History 1st-Yr Chg Applicable 2010 Teams
< .75 N/A none
.75 - 1.00 +4.3% Marshall
1.01 - 1.25 -0.5% Akron, Central Michigan, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Louisiana Tech, Memphis,
San Jose State, UNLV, Western Kentucky
> 1.25 -3.1% Buffalo, Louisiana-Monroe
The same dynamic is at play, but there are differences. Teams indeed improve by a decent amount if they were below their 10-year baseline the previous season, but teams who slightly overachieved tend to hold steady instead of regressing definitively. Whether this is because of the talent the departing coach left behind (there is parity in terms of talent at the non-BCS level, so a medium-sized batch of it could work wonders) or other factors, it is so far unclear.
Meanwhile, the teams who overachieved significantly (Ball State 2008, New Mexico State 2004, Akron 2003) took sharp tumbles after losing their leader. This is bad news for Buffalo and UL-Monroe.
So what happens if we were to add this "Ratio to Recent History + New Coach" factor into the F/+ projections? How much weight would this factor carry? At the BCS conference level, the correlation between this factor and the next season's performance is 0.189. At the non-BCS level, it is 0.288. This is actually relatively strong for a change factor. For perspective, here are some other change factors and their correlations:
Last year's turnover margin: 0.273
Total starters returning: 0.262
Picks in last year's NFL Draft: 0.193
Last year's fumble recovery percentage: 0.152
So "Ratio to Recent History + New Coach" factor is as strong a predictor of many factors we weight heavily in our own judgment (turnover margin, talent lost, etc.). That appears strong enough to work into the projections. But here is something even more interesting: the "Ratio to Recent History + Second-Year Coach" factor is even stronger, at least at the BCS level. A team's recent performance (as compared to history) and its predictive ability for teams with second-year coaches is 0.275, almost exactly the same as turnover margin. Is it possible that the first year under a new coach is a bit of a crap shoot, but by the second season, the historically strong programs will be able rather predictably make their move (if they've got a move to make)?
Let's look at the same data as above, only with second-year change.
Ratio to Recent History and Second-Year Coaches, BCS Conference Teams (2003-09)
Ratio to
Recent
History 2nd-Yr
Chg Applicable 2010 Teams
< .75 +0.4% Kansas State
.75 - 1.00 +2.2% Auburn, Boston College, Iowa State, Purdue, Syracuse, Washington
1.01 - 1.25 +1.2% Clemson, Mississippi State, Oregon
> 1.25 -2.7% none
As a whole, teams tend to improve in their second seasons under a new head coach. It is uncertain at this point whether he is likely to succeed on a large level yet, but with a few more of his own players in the program, and with a year for players from the previous regime to learn a new system, teams take steps forward. But if things clicked a little too well in the coach's first season (think Baylor 2008, N.C. State 2007), then they might regress at least a little bit in Year Two. These are not earth-shattering conclusions here, but it is nice to see some statistical heft behind the seemingly easy-to-understand concept.
Are we told the same story with the non-BCS data? Yes.
Ratio to Recent History and Second-Year Coaches, Non-BCS Conference Teams (2003-09)
Ratio to
Recent
History 2nd-Yr Chg Applicable 2010 Teams
< .75 N/A none
.75 - 1.00 +1.8% Ball State, Miami-OH, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Toledo
1.01 - 1.25 +2.9% Army, Bowling Green, San Diego State, Utah State, Wyoming
> 1.25 -5.5% none
In general, no matter where a team is in its coach's regime, they are likely to regress (or ascend) back toward their historic power level. But the correlation is stronger in a coach's first couple of seasons.
Thinking of coaching changes from a projections standpoint, two approaches initially come to mind: 1) looking at program potential, and 2) type of hire. We'll first tackle the issue of program potential. (If you have other suggestions, let us hear them in the comments section.)
Every so often, a historical power struggles under one coach, dumps him for a new one, and rebounds. Oklahoma went five straight years without a winning record from 1994-98, hired Bob Stoops, and won the national title two years later. Florida lost five games per year under Ron Zook, then lost four combined in Urban Meyer's first two seasons. They also won a title in year No. 2. Nick Saban, Mack Brown, and Pete Carroll almost immediately reversed the fortunes of Alabama, Texas and USC, respectively. Hiring a new coach doesn't make an old power good again, of course -- it has to be the right hire. I mentioned in the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac that the only reason any of these great hires were made was because the last hire was poor. But if or when the right hire is made, the rebound is so much easier when you've got historical clout. Historical programs have more money (with which they can draw the big-time coaches) and get more benefit-of-the-doubt from recruits. God bless the oligarchy known as college football.
To put numbers to this, we're going to compare how a team did the previous season to how they did in the previous 10. We will call this a team's Ratio to Recent History. We could shrink that down to an acronym, but a) it might not ever get used again after this column, b) "RTRH" doesn't exactly roll off the tongue, and c) quite frankly, there are already too many acronyms in this world. So Ratio to Recent History it is. If the ratio is above 1.0, that means the team's performance last season was higher than its 10-year baseline. Below 1.0, and it was worse. (This was attempted with five, 10 and 20 years as the baseline, and 10 was the most statistically significant.)
Do BCS conference teams who underachieved compared to recent history tend to rebound a bit faster? Yes, to an extent. Below is data collected from between the 2003-09 seasons. Where it is available (2005-09), S&P+ data is used. Before 2005, Est. S&P+ is substituted.
Ratio to Recent History and First-Year Coaches, BCS Conference Teams (2003-09)
Ratio to
Recent
History
1st-Yr Chg
in S&P+
Applicable 2010 Teams
< .75 -4.9% USC
.75 - 1.00 +2.1% Florida State, Louisville, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Virginia
1.01 - 1.25 -5.9% Cincinnati, Kansas, Kentucky, South Florida, Vanderbilt
> 1.25 N/A none
Teams who finished above or below their 10-year baseline the year before a coach was hired tended to regress to the mean in the coach's first season. If you were below the baseline (within reason), you will likely improve a bit. The first-year change of plus-2.1 percent represents approximately 4-6 spots in the S&P+ rankings.
Meanwhile, if you overachieved before losing your coach, you tend to regress by about 5.9 percent, which could mean a fall of 10-14 spots in the rankings. In theory, this makes sense -- if you overachieved, the chances are greater that your coach was hired away to a bigger job. For the five 2010 teams that fall into this quadrant, however, only one had their coach hired away (Cincinnati). Two (Kentucky, Vanderbilt) are replacing retiring coaches, and, strangely enough, two are replacing coaches who were fired for player abuse. There is not yet enough of a sample size to add "reasons for departure" into this study, but regardless, fans of these schools may be in for an unpleasant autumn.
Then there is the "< .75" quadrant. The sample size is far from plentiful (six teams in eight years), but it appears that when a team bottoms out, a new coach must come in and build from scratch. There might not be a quick fix. Here are the six teams who landed in this quadrant: 2003 Nebraska, 2005 and 2008 Kansas State, 2006 Miami, 2004 Florida and 2009 USC. Nebraska had taken a step backwards in 2003, but in their first season under Bill Callahan they took a few more (a 16.7-percent drop compared to the previous season's Est. S&P+). Kansas State improved slightly in 2006 (+3.9 percent) and regressed in 2009 (-6.8 percent). Miami regressed in 2007 (-6.6 percent), while Florida slightly improved (+1.8 percent). Three of five teams have regressed by at least six percent, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that the same thing would happen to USC this coming season.
What do we see when we look at the same data for non-BCS automatic qualifying conferences?
Ratio to Recent History and First-Year Coaches, Non-BCS Conference Teams (2003-09)
Ratio to
Recent
History 1st-Yr Chg Applicable 2010 Teams
< .75 N/A none
.75 - 1.00 +4.3% Marshall
1.01 - 1.25 -0.5% Akron, Central Michigan, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Louisiana Tech, Memphis,
San Jose State, UNLV, Western Kentucky
> 1.25 -3.1% Buffalo, Louisiana-Monroe
The same dynamic is at play, but there are differences. Teams indeed improve by a decent amount if they were below their 10-year baseline the previous season, but teams who slightly overachieved tend to hold steady instead of regressing definitively. Whether this is because of the talent the departing coach left behind (there is parity in terms of talent at the non-BCS level, so a medium-sized batch of it could work wonders) or other factors, it is so far unclear.
Meanwhile, the teams who overachieved significantly (Ball State 2008, New Mexico State 2004, Akron 2003) took sharp tumbles after losing their leader. This is bad news for Buffalo and UL-Monroe.
So what happens if we were to add this "Ratio to Recent History + New Coach" factor into the F/+ projections? How much weight would this factor carry? At the BCS conference level, the correlation between this factor and the next season's performance is 0.189. At the non-BCS level, it is 0.288. This is actually relatively strong for a change factor. For perspective, here are some other change factors and their correlations:
Last year's turnover margin: 0.273
Total starters returning: 0.262
Picks in last year's NFL Draft: 0.193
Last year's fumble recovery percentage: 0.152
So "Ratio to Recent History + New Coach" factor is as strong a predictor of many factors we weight heavily in our own judgment (turnover margin, talent lost, etc.). That appears strong enough to work into the projections. But here is something even more interesting: the "Ratio to Recent History + Second-Year Coach" factor is even stronger, at least at the BCS level. A team's recent performance (as compared to history) and its predictive ability for teams with second-year coaches is 0.275, almost exactly the same as turnover margin. Is it possible that the first year under a new coach is a bit of a crap shoot, but by the second season, the historically strong programs will be able rather predictably make their move (if they've got a move to make)?
Let's look at the same data as above, only with second-year change.
Ratio to Recent History and Second-Year Coaches, BCS Conference Teams (2003-09)
Ratio to
Recent
History 2nd-Yr
Chg Applicable 2010 Teams
< .75 +0.4% Kansas State
.75 - 1.00 +2.2% Auburn, Boston College, Iowa State, Purdue, Syracuse, Washington
1.01 - 1.25 +1.2% Clemson, Mississippi State, Oregon
> 1.25 -2.7% none
As a whole, teams tend to improve in their second seasons under a new head coach. It is uncertain at this point whether he is likely to succeed on a large level yet, but with a few more of his own players in the program, and with a year for players from the previous regime to learn a new system, teams take steps forward. But if things clicked a little too well in the coach's first season (think Baylor 2008, N.C. State 2007), then they might regress at least a little bit in Year Two. These are not earth-shattering conclusions here, but it is nice to see some statistical heft behind the seemingly easy-to-understand concept.
Are we told the same story with the non-BCS data? Yes.
Ratio to Recent History and Second-Year Coaches, Non-BCS Conference Teams (2003-09)
Ratio to
Recent
History 2nd-Yr Chg Applicable 2010 Teams
< .75 N/A none
.75 - 1.00 +1.8% Ball State, Miami-OH, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Toledo
1.01 - 1.25 +2.9% Army, Bowling Green, San Diego State, Utah State, Wyoming
> 1.25 -5.5% none
In general, no matter where a team is in its coach's regime, they are likely to regress (or ascend) back toward their historic power level. But the correlation is stronger in a coach's first couple of seasons.
