Will coaches have a shorter leash?

[Powder]

In the past, players didn't transfer nearly as much. When a new coach came in he would lose that years seniors and maybe one or two other kids. The saying was that you couldn't judge him until he had 'all of his players' on the team. This was essentially in year 4.

With the direction college basketball is going and the near free-for-all when it comes to being able to transfer, will coaches have a shorter leash and be fired sooner than in the past? Right now Ben Johnson will have 'all of his players' in a maximum of two years and possibly in his first year. He was brought in to recruit in MN where he is already known. Will he have to keep high-end local talent very early in his career to be able to stay? Will this be the same for other coaches around the country?

 

[GopherPoke]

I would say the leash might be dependent on how the transfer portal looks in the future, but it might be opposite of what you say. If the portal continues to be the wild west, coaches may be granted more time to tame defections to the portal. I'm a little worried that the transfer issues has drastically changed how we look at our favorite college athletes/teams.

 

[atsgopher]

In the past, players didn't transfer nearly as much. When a new coach came in he would lose that years seniors and maybe one or two other kids. The saying was that you couldn't judge him until he had 'all of his players' on the team. This was essentially in year 4.

With the direction college basketball is going and the near free-for-all when it comes to being able to transfer, will coaches have a shorter leash and be fired sooner than in the past? Right now Ben Johnson will have 'all of his players' in a maximum of two years and possibly in his first year. He was brought in to recruit in MN where he is already known. Will he have to keep high-end local talent very early in his career to be able to stay? Will this be the same for other coaches around the country?

I think this might be missing what is meant by “all his players.” I think a coach that brings in players for 3-4 years and they grow over that time is how to gauge the coach.

Did they develop, improve, play together (and play together better over time). Do older guys develop younger guys. Do the strengths get stronger. Do their weaknesses improvve, etc, etc....

 

[MNVCGUY]

I would say the leash might be dependent on how the transfer portal looks in the future, but it might be opposite of what you say. If the portal continues to be the wild west, coaches may be granted more time to tame defections to the portal. I'm a little worried that the transfer issues has drastically changed how we look at our favorite college athletes/teams.

Agree that a lot of it will depend on how the transfer portal looks going forward as I don't think it will be quite as insane as it is right now but have no doubt it will continue to be a major factor, especially in basketball.

That said, it shouldn't shorten the leash for a new coach. While true that the vast majority of the 21-22 roster looks like it will be guys that have come in under Johnson I would not consider them to be "his guys". He is just trying to fill a roster with players that can hopefully compete, it won't really be till the 22 class that we start to see "his guys".

I have always felt a new coach deserves at minimum 3-4 years baring some sort of off field/court scandal. Firing coaches prior to that isn't really giving them a fair shot to come in establish any sort of roots.

 

[bizzle22]

Coyle has every reason to give him as much time as possible, but it is true that he’ll have “his guys” much quicker than usual with all the transfers. I think the local Class of 2022 is huge, and that we’ll be able to tell pretty quickly where the Ben Johnson era is headed.

If we can show flashes on the court next season and get 3-4 of the highly rated locals in the 2022 class, then that is a really good sign for what is to come and gives Ben some extra runway. Also gives fans legitimate reason for optimism, and we might see an uptick in season tickets.

If next year is a train wreck (say 8-23 overall with 2 B1G wins) and we largely whiff on the 2022 class, then I could see Ben only lasting 3 years as HC.

 

[Holy Man]

Coyle has every reason to give him as much time as possible, but it is true that he’ll have “his guys” much quicker than usual with all the transfers. I think the local Class of 2022 is huge, and that we’ll be able to tell pretty quickly where the Ben Johnson era is headed.

If we can show flashes on the court next season and get 3-4 of the highly rated locals in the 2022 class, then that is a really good sign for what is to come and gives Ben some extra runway. Also gives fans legitimate reason for optimism, and we might see an uptick in season tickets.

If next year is a train wreck (say 8-23 overall with 2 B1G wins) and we largely whiff on the 2022 class, then I could see Ben only lasting 3 years as HC.

A lot of eggs in the class of 22 basket. Momentum is so important. Not establishing it right away will be a killer for the program. But asking Ben to nail down guys who have been recruited by other programs for years with just six months is a really tall order.

 

[Ski-U-Ham]

I think this might be missing what is meant by “all his players.” I think a coach that brings in players for 3-4 years and they grow over that time is how to gauge the coach.

Did they develop, improve, play together (and play together better over time). Do older guys develop younger guys. Do the strengths get stronger. Do their weaknesses improvve, etc, etc....

With instant gratification (seemingly) becoming more and more important for the athletes, it is going to become harder to keep guys for 3-4 years. The grass will often times appear to be greener somewhere else, no matter how green it may have been for them in their original location.

 

[Mulligan]

A lot of eggs in the class of 22 basket. Momentum is so important. Not establishing it right away will be a killer for the program. But asking Ben to nail down guys who have been recruited by other programs for years with just six months is a really tall order.

Don't know if it will have much bearing, but hoping that Ben has established really strong relationships with several of the 2022 guys while trying to recruit them for Xavier. Maybe this will make the order not as tall. And if the support from the local basketball community isn't just lip service, that also will be big in overcoming the shorter time span to recruit. I go back and forth between being genuinely excited about this and a feeling of dread. Faith in Coyle and Ben versus "You know, it's the Gophers."

 

[GopherPoke]

...and think about those new guys coming in that are your 6-8or9 guys. They will most definitely see greener pastures. I see keeping top end talent possibly easier than keeping supporting cast players. That's not a positive!

I feel like building depth in a program might be very tough if the portal is left similar to what it is now.

 

[UpAndUnder43]

...and think about those new guys coming in that are your 6-8or9 guys. They will most definitely see greener pastures. I see keeping top end talent possibly easier than keeping supporting cast players. That's not a positive!

I feel like building depth in a program might be very tough if the portal is left similar to what it is now.

Just become the greener pastures and you can add depth through the portal. Shitty programs will remain shitty, good programs will get better because guys would rather be the 8th man on a good team than the 6th man on a shit team.

 

[MNVCGUY]

A lot of eggs in the class of 22 basket. Momentum is so important. Not establishing it right away will be a killer for the program. But asking Ben to nail down guys who have been recruited by other programs for years with just six months is a really tall order.

Very true, 2023 will be a better reflection on his connection with the local recruits than 2022 will be. Also I think a little too much is being made of his need to land a ton of in-state guys. #1 priority is still to bring in the best players he can regardless of where they are from.

There is a lot of good talent in this state and hopefully Johnson is able to bring us to the point where those players want to stay home and play for the Gophers. But if he builds a successful program it won't matter one bit if the players are "one of us".

 

[GopherPoke]

Just become the greener pastures and you can add depth through the portal. Shitty programs will remain shitty, good programs will get better because guys would rather be the 8th man on a good team than the 6th man on a shit team.

You aren't wrong! But I'm not dumb, either.

 

[UpAndUnder43]

You aren't wrong! But I'm not dumb, either.

When did I say you were dumb? I can see the portal helping rebuild teams, I can see it being used for depth, I can see mid-major stars becoming starters or key reserves on championship level teams...hard to know for now but I think a solid program that is lacking a key backup can hop in the portal and find that guy easier than developing a freshman.

 

[Ski-U-Ham]

Just become the greener pastures and you can add depth through the portal. Shitty programs will remain shitty, good programs will get better because guys would rather be the 8th man on a good team than the 6th man on a shit team.

To an extent, but people still leave the greenest pastures like Gonzaga (a center whose name is escaping me right now is one recent example).

 

[GopherPoke]

When did I say you were dumb? I can see the portal helping rebuild teams, I can see it being used for depth, I can see mid-major stars becoming starters or key reserves on championship level teams...hard to know for now but I think a solid program that is lacking a key backup can hop in the portal and find that guy easier than developing a freshman.

You misunderstand me, I was kidding. You didn't say that, I'm just joking that I'm not under any impression that the Gophers are a destination team yet, and that may take a while.

 

[cjbfbp]

Yes, it's likely that college basketball will have increased transfers in future years over what they were several years ago but almost all programs will face those same conditions. A small number of programs may be able to keep rosters more intact than most others and some programs will have more instability than average. Despite the greater instability, we're still going to have the same overall results: some coaches will win a lot, some won't win much at all, and some will be in-between.

I suspect the same factors as usual will control the length of a coach's tenure:

1) the expectations for the program and how that coach performs relative to those expectations; and

2) the ability of the program to tap resources for buyouts and for attracting new coaches.

For example, Indiana is high on both factors and, because of #2, they can afford to fire Archie Miller after four years of a mediocre (but not terrible) record and pay a huge buyout of over $10 million. Then they can turn around and pay Woodson about $3 million per year. This program doesn't have the same level of #2 which is why it isn't in good position to have the same level of #1. That's why Pitino was here for 8 years.

 

[Gopherfan84]

Can the leash get shorter? Tons of coaches aren’t getting more than 4 years already.

 

[PMWinSTP]

Coyle has every reason to give him as much time as possible, but it is true that he’ll have “his guys” much quicker than usual with all the transfers. I think the local Class of 2022 is huge, and that we’ll be able to tell pretty quickly where the Ben Johnson era is headed.

If we can show flashes on the court next season and get 3-4 of the highly rated locals in the 2022 class, then that is a really good sign for what is to come and gives Ben some extra runway. Also gives fans legitimate reason for optimism, and we might see an uptick in season tickets.

If next year is a train wreck (say 8-23 overall with 2 B1G wins) and we largely whiff on the 2022 class, then I could see Ben only lasting 3 years as HC.

What determines a whiff on the 2022 class?

 

[Holy Man]

Don't know if it will have much bearing, but hoping that Ben has established really strong relationships with several of the 2022 guys while trying to recruit them for Xavier. Maybe this will make the order not as tall. And if the support from the local basketball community isn't just lip service, that also will be big in overcoming the shorter time span to recruit. I go back and forth between being genuinely excited about this and a feeling of dread. Faith in Coyle and Ben versus "You know, it's the Gophers."

I'm cynical about the so-called "support" from the local basketball community. I'm not linked in any way and don't do social media, but have not found one word of congratulations and "we're here to support Ben" from the club basketball circuit yet. Ben is going to have do it on his own.

I also have no idea who he may have been recruiting in class of 22 or 23 for X. I hope some, as you indicate, that will give him some inroads.

 

[bizzle22]

What determines a whiff on the 2022 class?

I’d say one or fewer of the local guys plus not making up for it with out-of-state recruits. I’m not at all someone who has ever expected we get all or even most of the local recruits, but the 2022 class has 7 MN players in the top 125 nationally according to 247 composite. 9 in the top 200. One of the main reasons Coyle and others have given for hiring Ben is that he will recruit MN well. If he can’t pull at least a couple of those 2022 MN recruits that would be a sign to me that it’s not working as hoped.

 

[umn99]

I’d say one or fewer of the local guys plus not making up for it with out-of-state recruits. I’m not at all someone who has ever expected we get all or even most of the local recruits, but the 2022 class has 7 MN players in the top 125 nationally according to 247 composite. 9 in the top 200. One of the main reasons Coyle and others have given for hiring Ben is that he will recruit MN well. If he can’t pull at least a couple of those 2022 MN recruits that would be a sign to me that it’s not working as hoped.

Agreed. Ben may be new on the job at the U, but I can’t imagine he is new to these players, coaches, AAU people, etc. I think Mark Coyle (and Ben!) is expecting it to pay off quickly. There’s only one player that feels like we’re probably behind on, but I also expect that he should be able to get a number of those kids. Especially when he is in the media saying not that they can’t get them, but they can’t take them all.

 

[umn99]

. I go back and forth between being genuinely excited about this and a feeling of dread. Faith in Coyle and Ben versus "You know, it's the Gophers."

Me too. Coyle (who I think the world of as an AD) chose him for a reason. I know he can get it done. But I also have PTSD with so many kids picking up a different hat than the hometown school or just the last 20+ years of Gopher bball.

 

[BarnBurner]

I'm cynical about the so-called "support" from the local basketball community. I'm not linked in any way and don't do social media, but have not found one word of congratulations and "we're here to support Ben" from the club basketball circuit yet. Ben is going to have do it on his own.

I also have no idea who he may have been recruiting in class of 22 or 23 for X. I hope some, as you indicate, that will give him some inroads.

Aint gonna happen.

 

[PMWinSTP]

I’d say one or fewer of the local guys plus not making up for it with out-of-state recruits. I’m not at all someone who has ever expected we get all or even most of the local recruits, but the 2022 class has 7 MN players in the top 125 nationally according to 247 composite. 9 in the top 200. One of the main reasons Coyle and others have given for hiring Ben is that he will recruit MN well. If he can’t pull at least a couple of those 2022 MN recruits that would be a sign to me that it’s not working as hoped.

So Ben basically gets just one full recruiting class of his own to achieve your expectations?

 

[bizzle22]

So Ben basically gets just one full recruiting class of his own to achieve your expectations?

What happened to “the local AAU community loves Ben”? That narrative goes out the window if he can’t get at least a couple in a local class that is pretty loaded.

I’m excited. I think he gets at least a couple. Not like he’s been living under a rock for the last few years. I’m sure he already talked to most of them well before he even got the MN job.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

I feel like when we hired Pitino, and he had some bad years, we had people saying things like "we knew we hired someone who didn't know what he was doing, so some growing pains were to be expected" and "we always knew that year three was going to be a train wreck" (I don't recall that being said until after year three became a train wreck). I'd really like us not to have to endure that sort of excuse-making.

 

[PMWinSTP]

I feel like when we hired Pitino, and he had some bad years, we had people saying things like "we knew we hired someone who didn't know what he was doing, so some growing pains were to be expected" and "we always knew that year three was going to be a train wreck" (I don't recall that being said until after year three became a train wreck). I'd really like us not to have to endure that sort of excuse-making.

Yeah, I feel Gophs need to finish middle of the pack (6-8th place) almost every year for close to a decade to reset those expectations.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

What happened to “the local AAU community loves Ben”? That narrative goes out the window if he can’t get at least a couple in a local class that is pretty loaded.

I’m excited. I think he gets at least a couple. Not like he’s been living under a rock for the last few years. I’m sure he already talked to most of them well before he even got the MN job.

This is sort of my concern too. It was a situation that I saw with Pitino pretty early as well. We couldn't have immediate expectations and we couldn't even ask when we could realistically have expectations.

If we are a bad program 3 years from now and those AAU recruits aren't coming in, I would move on from Ben. By bad, I mean 10th or worse in the Big 10 all three seasons.

 

[MNVCGUY]

This is sort of my concern too. It was a situation that I saw with Pitino pretty early as well. We couldn't have immediate expectations and we couldn't even ask when we could realistically have expectations.

If we are a bad program 3 years from now and those AAU recruits aren't coming in, I would move on from Ben. By bad, I mean 10th or worse in the Big 10 all three seasons.

In order to pull the plug on Johnson after only 3 years things would have to be really bad record wise with little to no reason to hope for it to get any better. The constant firing coaches and starting over thing doesn't really get it done.

Pitino was given a fair shake, he survived the AD change and was given 8 seasons. IMO Johnson should get at least 4 years as long as there are no off the court scandals or other reasons that make it clear he has to go.

Hopefully there will be some positive signs early in Johnson's time here that show he will be able to get things moving in the right direction. The bar is not set all that high, hopefully he can clear it early and then start to establish a new trajectory for Gopher basketball.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

In order to pull the plug on Johnson after only 3 years things would have to be really bad record wise with little to no reason to hope for it to get any better. The constant firing coaches and starting over thing doesn't really get it done.

Pitino was given a fair shake, he survived the AD change and was given 8 seasons. IMO Johnson should get at least 4 years as long as there are no off the court scandals or other reasons that make it clear he has to go.

Hopefully there will be some positive signs early in Johnson's time here that show he will be able to get things moving in the right direction. The bar is not set all that high, hopefully he can clear it early and then start to establish a new trajectory for Gopher basketball.

Doesn't finishing 10th or worse for all three seasons qualify as really bad record wise?

I am sure some people can correct me, but I can't think of a single example of someone starting their career that bad and becoming a good coach.