Why is Iowa struggling with 2022 recruiting? Kirk Ferentz’s age (66 as of Aug. 1) is a significant factor.

Donate To GopherHole
salzie said:
Stupid take
Click to expand...
Why? You're either taking over a program that is reeling or one that has experienced success.

The cupboard was bare at Iowa when Ferentz started. Certainly not the case when TC left.
 

Boomtime said:
Why? You're either taking over a program that is reeling or one that has experienced success.

The cupboard was bare at Iowa when Ferentz started. Certainly not the case when TC left.
Click to expand...
It was most certainly the case in many key spots, namely QB, WR, and OL


While it wasn't Brewster bad, acting like PJ inherited this great situation and just kept the cogs moving is very stupid take
 

salzie said:
It was most certainly the case in many key spots, namely QB, WR, and OL


While it wasn't Brewster bad, acting like PJ inherited this great situation and just kept the cogs moving is very stupid take
Click to expand...
Yeah, he's done this before, completely ignoring that the returning team was nothing like the 9 win team from the previous year. Just another worthless troll. But he'll get his jollies off arguing about it with you from his mom's basement.
 

I find it interesting that Iowa had Pedala, the backup QB listed as a backup corner in 2021. I remember watching him at their camp a few years ago as a recruit. I swear he was 5'11", he had a good career in Colorado.
 

salzie said:
It was most certainly the case in many key spots, namely QB, WR, and OL


While it wasn't Brewster bad, acting like PJ inherited this great situation and just kept the cogs moving is very stupid take
Click to expand...

Some people: Talk about how PJ landed in a great situation.

Meanwhile PJ: Begging a walk on QB to come back to the team to play a season ...
 




cjbfbp said:
Well, maybe, but he is also an old coach with an impressive record of sending players to the NFL, at least for the level of his program. According to a fall 2020 study, Iowa is tied for 12th (with Florida State and Washington) for the number of active players in the NFL (28); that is fourth in the Big Ten behind OSU, Michigan, and Penn State but Iowa was only 4 players behind Penn State and 5 behind Michigan.
Click to expand...
Well congrats. You successfully argued that ferentz is a good coach. Which I never argued. Ferentz is a great coach. Top probably 5-7 coach in the conference since the BCS era started.

I said it might be easier for an old nick Saban to recruit than an old Kirk ferentz. None of that refutes what I was saying.
 

cjbfbp said:
I hadn't thought of that. Illinois has been a pretty fair recruiting turf for Gopher football so I hope that doesn't diminish too much with Bielema's arrival.
Click to expand...
If Bielema takes it serious, he will make Illinois competitive. If he lets himself go like he did at the end at Arkansas he will be a clone hire of Lovie Smith. A guy who is collecting a check but doesn’t care.

BB had it going okay his first few years and Arkansas. They caught a couple of bad breaks and it all fell apart. Then he gained like 150 pounds. I’m assuming he lost discipline in other areas besides weight too.
 




Some guy said:
The first Quarterback in like 25 years not to get Cretin into state and he is a gopher starter.
Click to expand...
That HS program has fallen from grace in recent years, all these private schools seem to be trying to be BB schools.
 

Tommyboy said:
That HS program has fallen from grace in recent years, all these private schools seem to be trying to be BB schools.
Click to expand...
They’re no longer opting up to 6a
Which is interesting.
 





cjbfbp said:
Yes, high level recruiting talent isn't Wisconsin's strength (although Bo did so well he was starting to get higher level talent). Coaching is. Bo Ryan clearly is a Hall of Fame coach. Gard is a protege so I guess that explains the continuity and I would guess some level of player development is part of that. I can't see him doing as well as Bo over the long term but he appears to have continued the same style and he may do well enough to continue there for a long time.
Click to expand...
Wisconsin has landed a few five stars lately. That is high level recruiting. We’ve never landed one.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Wisconsin has landed a few five stars lately. That is high level recruiting. We’ve never landed one.
Click to expand...

I was talking about basketball. The only five star recruit that I remember them getting in recent years was Sam Dekker. Correct me if you think I've forgotten someone. I guess one could argue that Devin Harris was in reality a five star player but I don't believe he was rated that highly coming out of high school. Certainly in his last year of college, Frank Kaminsky played like a five star player but he wasn't that highly rated as a prep either.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Wisconsin has landed a few five stars lately. That is high level recruiting. We’ve never landed one.
Click to expand...
Seems like a low bar. I don't think Wisky getting a 5* lineman who's brother is on the team plus two other 5* lineman is high level recruiting. High level to me is having >50% of your players be 4/5* players.
 

noamfromm said:
Seems like a low bar. I don't think Wisky getting a 5* lineman who's brother is on the team plus two other 5* lineman is high level recruiting. High level to me is having >50% of your players be 4/5* players.
Click to expand...
I think Fleck is recruiting at a level, based on 247 ratings, at about where Wisconsin was up through 2018. That is a real improvement for us. Up through 2018, Wisconsin took a lot of high 3 stars and lower four stars and developed them into a great, cohesive team. Fleck, who has a real eye for "under-rated" talent, has the Gophers on the verge of that level, and it feels good.

But, beginning in 2019, Wisconsin has been recruiting at, if not a "high" level, at a level that is "higher" than it was before. Chryst is bringing in more highly-rated recruits. The 2019-2021 OL recruiting classes at Wisconsin include the following lineman: Nolan Rucci 5* 0.9918; Logan Brown 5* 0.9915; Trey Wedig 4* 0.9641; Jack Nelson 4* 0.9539; JP Benzshewel 4* 0.9387; Riley Mahlman 4* 0.9380; Joe Tippman 4* 0.8967. No one in the B1G West recuits OL at that level (though if we send 4 or 5 OL to the NFL in the next year or two, we might begin to recruit OL at that level). In that same 2019-2021 period, the Gophers' top OL recruits were Curtis Dunlap 4* 0.9168 and Daniel Faalele 4* 0.9008, both of whom came here, arguably, because of Zach Annexstad's efforts.

At LB, another Badger stalwart position, the period 2019-21 saw them get four 4* star recruits and a boatload of high 3* on the verge of four star status. Then there was QB Mertz, 4* 0.9689; RB Berger 4* 0.9374.

This might not be "high" level recruiting, but it is a meaningfully "higher" level of recruiting than seen at Wisconsin in 2018 and prior years. It is a higher level than Nebraska, which traditionally has had the highest-rated (largely wasted) recruiting classes in the B1G West. It is actually meaningfully higher than Nebraska, because so many of Nebraska's 4* recruits seem to transfer out after a year or two, while Wisconsin holds theirs (as Fleck holds onto most of ours).

Wisconsin, on paper, remains the top dog in the B1G West. Fleck has really increased Gopher recruiting, but Wisconsin has been accelerating at the same time. The chase is on!
 
Last edited:

noamfromm said:
Seems like a low bar. I don't think Wisky getting a 5* lineman who's brother is on the team plus two other 5* lineman is high level recruiting. High level to me is having >50% of your players be 4/5* players.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the highest level programs (like Alabama and OSU) probably have a majority of players who are at least four stars. There really aren't that many 5 star players entering college football each year. Here are the number of 5 star players (as rated by ESPN - I think 247 typically has more) for the last five years:

2022: 13
2021: 14
2020: 17
2019: 14
2018: 13
 

cjbfbp said:
Yeah, the highest level programs (like Alabama and OSU) probably have a majority of players who are at least four stars. There really aren't that many 5 star players entering college football each year. Here are the number of 5 star players (as rated by ESPN - I think 247 typically has more) for the last five years:

2022: 13
2021: 14
2020: 17
2019: 14
2018: 13
Click to expand...
I believe 247 treats 5* like the first round of the NFL draft, so they do the top 32 players every year? Could easily be wrong.

But year, if a significant number of your recruits are 4* (or higher), then you're doing it at an elite level.
 

MplsGopher said:
I believe 247 treats 5* like the first round of the NFL draft, so they do the top 32 players every year? Could easily be wrong.

But year, if a significant number of your recruits are 4* (or higher), then you're doing it at an elite level.
Click to expand...
Wisconsin isn't at the highest level of recruiting yet, obviously. But it has upped its recruiting game recently to a new high level for the B1G West (avg. rating of 0.8904 for 2021 class). Whether it can sustain that higher level for years to come, or whether the past few years are a simply a temporary upward blip, remains to be seen ...
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Wisconsin isn't at the highest level of recruiting yet, obviously. But it has upped its recruiting game recently to a new high level for the B1G West (avg. rating of 0.8904 for 2021 class). Whether it can sustain that higher level for years to come, or whether the past few years are a simply a temporary upward blip, remains to be seen ...
Click to expand...
Would be curious to know if that uptick is just a random good luck to have 5* linemen from in-state, who actually have the state pride to sign with their home state school (!!!!!! WTF???!!!!), or if they've installed a deliberate change in recruiting strategy?
 

MplsGopher said:
Would be curious to know if that uptick is just a random good luck to have 5* linemen from in-state, who actually have the state pride to sign with their home state school (!!!!!! WTF???!!!!), or if they've installed a deliberate change in recruiting strategy?
Click to expand...
The two 5* lineman are from Michigan and Pennsylvania. I think WI's established reputation for putting OL in the NFL is starting to bear fruit. Wisconsin's 2022 class (in process--only 11 commits) already includes the state's top OL: Joe Brunner, high 4* at 0.9753. WI isn't recruiting at an elite level across the board, but it really is recruiting at an elite level at the OL position.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
The two 5* lineman are from Michigan and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin's 2022 class (in process--only 11 commits) already includes the state's top OL: Joe Brunner, high 4* at 0.9753. WI isn't recruiting at an elite level across the board, but it really is recruiting at an elite level at the OL position.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the info.

And going all the way over to Mich and PA isn't a massive stretch. Certainly not having to go out to California, Texas, or the deep south.
 

Fleck has improved recruiting, but there's a very long ways to go be consistently in the conversation as a threat to win the B1G West.

Baby steps.
 

Boomtime said:
Fleck has improved recruiting, but there's a very long ways to go be consistently in the conversation as a threat to win the B1G West.

Baby steps.
Click to expand...
Not really. Once the gophers win it once, they can reasonably be seen as a “threat” almost any year. For instance, northwestern is “a threat” many years.
 

Some guy said:
Not really. Once the gophers win it once, they can reasonably be seen as a “threat” almost any year. For instance, northwestern is “a threat” many years.
Click to expand...
Since 2015, NW's conf record has been:
6-2
5-4
7-2
8-1
1-8
6-1
(bold = they won the West division)

2019 was a bad year, and they had no QB. But otherwise, they've been pretty good.
 

And I believe they've built some pretty nice practice facilities on campus in the last couple years.

Actually you can see it all lit up at night here:
pioE8iQ.png


I think this is only a couple years old? Top notch academic reputation. Fun Chicago city just a train ride down. Etc.

Their gameday stadium is what it is. Probably the smallest and least exciting atmosphere in the Big Ten. Don't think they can do much about that, except try to keep winning and building it up.
 

MplsGopher said:
I believe 247 treats 5* like the first round of the NFL draft, so they do the top 32 players every year? Could easily be wrong.

But year, if a significant number of your recruits are 4* (or higher), then you're doing it at an elite level.
Click to expand...

I noticed they had about double the 5 stars of ESPN so that explanation would make sense. Still, that isn't very many.

Going back to ESPN, they have their Top 300 and it appears that everyone on that list is rated at least a 4 star. For 2021, they have us with one of the top 300 (Athan Kaliakmanis with a rank of #266 and a grade of 81). They have us with two other four stars who are just outside the Top 300 each with a grade of 80. The next highest recruit has a grade of 79 and is rated a 3 star. So, it looks like the "80" grade is ESPN's cutoff for 4 stars.

Not counting the 2021 commit group of freshmen (which is smaller for the obvious reasons of optional year players and transfers), our average class size of freshmen & JUCO commits over the prior 5 years was 24. If you assume most FBS schools have about the same, that would give 3,120 openings every year (130 teams x 24 openings). If only about 350 are rated as four stars or more by ESPN, that would mean that around 11% of FBS recruits are rated as 4 stars or higher. Obviously, that average percentage likely is higher for power conference teams as a whole but maybe not substantially higher for most of them.

For 2021, we had 18 freshman recruits and no JUCO recruits and 3 of them were rated 4 stars by ESPN. So, our 17% average would be higher than the overall estimated FBS average. The percentages for the other teams in our division are:

Wisconsin: 38%
Iowa: 21%
Nebraska: 20%
Northwestern: 18.75%
Purdue: 6.7%
Illinois: 6.25%

So, we fell significantly short of only Wisconsin as Iowa, Northwestern, and Nebraska's marks were pretty close to ours. For another reference point, the most improved Big Ten team of late (Indiana) has a percentage of 13.3%.
 

cjbfbp said:
I noticed they had about double the 5 stars of ESPN so that explanation would make sense. Still, that isn't very many.

Going back to ESPN, they have their Top 300 and it appears that everyone on that list is rated at least a 4 star. For 2021, they have us with one of the top 300 (Athan Kaliakmanis with a rank of #266 and a grade of 81). They have us with two other four stars who are just outside the Top 300 each with a grade of 80. The next highest recruit has a grade of 79 and is rated a 3 star. So, it looks like the "80" grade is ESPN's cutoff for 4 stars.

Not counting the 2021 commit group of freshmen (which is smaller for the obvious reasons of optional year players and transfers), our average class size of freshmen & JUCO commits over the prior 5 years was 24. If you assume most FBS schools have about the same, that would give 3,120 openings every year (130 teams x 24 openings). If only about 350 are rated as four stars or more by ESPN, that would mean that around 11% of FBS recruits are rated as 4 stars or higher. Obviously, that average percentage likely is higher for power conference teams as a whole but maybe not substantially higher for most of them.

For 2021, we had 18 freshman recruits and no JUCO recruits and 3 of them were rated 4 stars by ESPN. So, our 17% average would be higher than the overall estimated FBS average. The percentages for the other teams in our division are:

Wisconsin: 38%
Iowa: 21%
Nebraska: 20%
Northwestern: 18.75%
Purdue: 6.7%
Illinois: 6.25%

So, we fell significantly short of only Wisconsin as Iowa, Northwestern, and Nebraska's marks were pretty close to ours. For another reference point, the most improved Big Ten team of late (Indiana) has a percentage of 13.3%.
Click to expand...
Thanks for this research!

Would be interesting to know what the numbers do if you remove OL recruits from the equation for every school and leave all other parameters the same.

Hypothesis being that Wisc's numbers are "artificially" bolsters by having an unusually high number of 4/5* OL recruits, but few/none at other positions.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom