Who 👃an Upset on Saturday?

[GopherNtn]

The defense needs to shut down Tyler Warren. You take him out of the equation, Gophers win. Can’t wait to see what Hetherman’s defense has schemed up for this Saturday!

 

[short ornery norwegian]

just checked BetMGM. they have Penn State as a 12.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45.5 - which translates to Penn State winning by a score of 29-16 or 29-17.

a few other notes - Gophers are 7-2-1 against the spread this season.

Penn State is 0-5 ATS (0.0%) in its last 5 games vs. top 25 scoring defenses

Minnesota is 4-1 Straight-Up (80.0%) in its last 5 games at home

The UNDER hit in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home

add it up and it sounds like bet on the Gophers to cover and bet the under.

 

[Word]

The defense needs to shut down Tyler Warren. You take him out of the equation, Gophers win. Can’t wait to see what Hetherman’s defense has schemed up for this Saturday!

If our O-line plays well, I like our chances.

 

[walrus]

Seniors rise to the occasion on Senior Day! Gophers beat Penn. St. to shake up the playoff system!

In State College, PA, the fans with a loss in Minny may try to turn on their coach and pull off the “…franklin firing place look in their Beaver Stadium instead of a normal white out…” for their next home game. Beat that stinking nitty kitty, Gopher! The time is so prime to diminish P-State a little bit…

 

[tikited]

Going to need three Penn State turnovers.

 

[BilldGopher]

Praying is a waste of time but Penn State is always overrated. The Lions struggled beating Bowling Green and had close games with Illinois, UCLA, USC, and Wisconsin. We had close games with Illinois, UCLA, and USC. Lions fans know that Franklin will screw up and thus we have a chance. Either way this is going to be a one score game.

The Football Gods chime in...

 

[upnorthkid]

anyone heard anything about DT/how he's looked in practice? Would imagine the bye week was good for him as he looked a little hobbled last time out. would envision we're going to be doing a lot of short passing and more run heavy this weekend to try keep the clock rolling

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

It does, but it also seemed like it was the betting public putting big money on Ohio State. Line opened at IU +10 and keeps going more to Ohio State with every passing day

The general betting public is a bunch of shameless front-runners who back the big brands and favorites way more than I would expect if you look at big data sets

I don't buy this. There are a lot of big money sports betters who spend their lives staring at different data sets. If there were an obvious inefficiency in the betting markets in favor of big brand teams, the big betters would hammer that bet until the effect was gone.

 

[fmlizard]

I don't buy this. There are a lot of big money sports betters who spend their lives staring at different data sets. If there were an obvious inefficiency in the betting markets in favor of big brand teams, the big betters would hammer that bet until the effect was gone.

Most of the data I can find says the public backs favorites at about a 60-75% clip. It's unclear how much of this is moneyline versus spread betting.

Every NFL game this weekend has more bets on the pointspread favorite.

Every NFL game except for a couple very close ones has dramatically more bets on the heavy moneyline favorite. 95-5% in some cases, and the bigger the favorite the more drastic the money is on them. The "bet 100 to win 10" bet is apparently very popular.

There are some college games listed on that site taking more bets on the spread dog. There's not a single college game I can find with more bets on the moneyline underdog. Moneyline underdog is the bet I make 90% of the time on football.

In the case of the moneyline, the house can take unbalanced action with more bets on favorites because it must pay out less for a win on a favorite. Favorites in the NFL win about 2/3 of the time, but cash less for each win.

 

[Married@SiebertField]

How to defend PSU’s gigantic TE/WR is a tough question—a huge mismatch especially important on a cold day when pure WRs on both sides may struggle to catch the ball. Likely need to score 24 to win—given our offensive struggles to account for 14 points need a short field off a turnover or a defensive TD and a huge play: how about a long gainer by Brockington out of the slot position?

 

[PMWinSTP]

Watch the Gophs pull off the upset then drop the season finale to The badgers...MN sports

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

The 2016 Gopher team lacked discipline often and really should have won that season opener Vs PSU.
Anyone remember this play?

Gopher ejected for hitting 258-pound PSU kicker

Minnesota linebacker Jaylen Waters got into a shoving match with Penn State kicker Joey Julius earlier in the game and then was ejected for later hitting him on a kickoff.

www.espn.com

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

How to defend PSU’s gigantic TE/WR is a tough question—a huge mismatch especially important on a cold day when pure WRs on both sides may struggle to catch the ball. Likely need to score 24 to win—given our offensive struggles to account for 14 points need a short field off a turnover or a defensive TD and a huge play: how about a long gainer by Brockington out of the slot position?

Yeah that goofy looking number 33 is a problem. The Gophers really don’t have a great LB for TE pass coverage. Penn State exploited I believe Lindenberg or Sori-Marin on TE seam routes during the last matchup.

 

[oak_street1981]

I agree, that 2016 Penn State road game was brutal. I was won twice, then lost. Then Tracy C. lead the team to the win in San Diego!

 

[oak_street1981]

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