Which college football teams are most helped — and hurt — by conference realignment?

[60's Guy]

This is a little bit of a word salad, but if I'm deciphering it correctly, you're saying there's a chance we'll be favored in 5 of the first 6 games?

I will bet you any amount of money you wish at any odds you desire that that doesn't happen.

Well, it is dependent on winning. But it is my understanding we are favored vs North Carolina.
We likely will be vs Rhode Island and Nevada.
Brings us to iowa...if we are 3 and 0 playing at home...don't you think we will be favored?
Michigan is not in my equation, other than if we would compete at Michigan and win or lose close...less than 15 points...say
Unless USC is undefeated and scoring 50 points a game I believe we will be favored there too?
All seems pretty likely to me if we win our first four games. Gotta beat North Carolina for any scenario to be relevant.
And USC has LSU, Utah St at Michigan and Wisconsin before us.

 

[disco]

B10 better form some kind of regional divisions again because no one is going to care about team #11 or lower. The old rules have to be brought back about transferring to end the chaos, and the NCAA has to go back into federal court to get a measure of sane governance back in its hands - all the way to SCOTUS, if it has to. In all likelihood, Nebraska is moving up and the Gophers are not in this new system.

The old rules are not coming back. Period.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Well, it is dependent on winning. But it is my understanding we are favored vs North Carolina.
We likely will be vs Rhode Island and Nevada.
Brings us to iowa...if we are 3 and 0 playing at home...don't you think we will be favored?
Michigan is not in my equation, other than if we would compete at Michigan and win or lose close...less than 15 points...say
Unless USC is undefeated and scoring 50 points a game I believe we will be favored there too?
All seems pretty likely to me if we win our first four games. Gotta beat North Carolina for any scenario to be relevant.
And USC has LSU, Utah St at Michigan and Wisconsin before us.

according to ESPN Bets, as of now, Gophers are (-2) over North Carolina.
that's the only game I can find a line on.

But - in the ESPN Power rankings, Gophers are at #61 - 15th in the B1G. of their B1G opponents this season, Gophers are ranked above Illinois. every other team is ranked above the Gophers.

as far as the Iowa game, Iowa is #37 in the power rankings (Gophers #61). barring some odd early-season results, Iowa is going to be favored. USC is #18 in the power rankings. again, unless USC has some really bad results early, they will be favored over the Gophers.

in games where ESPN Bets had an early line, USC is a +6 underdog to LSU, but is favored to beat Wisconsin.

this does NOT mean that the Gophers can't win some of those games - but it does suggest that the Gophers are not going to be the betting favorites in at least 3 of those first 6 games.

 

[60's Guy]

according to ESPN Bets, as of now, Gophers are (-2) over North Carolina.
that's the only game I can find a line on.

But - in the ESPN Power rankings, Gophers are at #61 - 15th in the B1G. of their B1G opponents this season, Gophers are ranked above Illinois. every other team is ranked above the Gophers.

as far as the Iowa game, Iowa is #37 in the power rankings (Gophers #61). barring some odd early-season results, Iowa is going to be favored. USC is #18 in the power rankings. again, unless USC has some really bad results early, they will be favored over the Gophers.

in games where ESPN Bets had an early line, USC is a +6 underdog to LSU, but is favored to beat Wisconsin.

this does NOT mean that the Gophers can't win some of those games - but it does suggest that the Gophers are not going to be the betting favorites in at least 3 of those first 6 games.

And I'm saying IF we are 3 and 0 playing at home, I think we could be favored versus Iowa.
Another words the odds will change. Beat Iowa > etc

 

[short ornery norwegian]

And I'm saying IF we are 3 and 0 playing at home, I think we could be favored versus Iowa.
Another words the odds will change. Beat Iowa > etc

If both IA and MN are 3-0 going into that game, it will depend on which team has looked better. If Gophers have been winning big while Iowa is scraping by, then yes, the Gophers could be favored by a couple of points. But if both teams have looked fairly similar, my way too early guess is that Iowa would be a 2 or 3-point favorite.

both teams are breaking in new QB's. Iowa has a new OC and theoretically, a new offensive scheme. on paper, Iowa has the tougher schedule. so MN could be favored, but it won't be by a lot.

if the Gophers want to be the betting favorite vs Iowa, they need to beat North Carolina, and then they need to win big-time against Rhode Island and Nevada.

 

[60's Guy]

If both IA and MN are 3-0 going into that game, it will depend on which team has looked better. If Gophers have been winning big while Iowa is scraping by, then yes, the Gophers could be favored by a couple of points. But if both teams have looked fairly similar, my way too early guess is that Iowa would be a 2 or 3-point favorite.

both teams are breaking in new QB's. Iowa has a new OC and theoretically, a new offensive scheme. on paper, Iowa has the tougher schedule. so MN could be favored, but it won't be by a lot.

if the Gophers want to be the betting favorite vs Iowa, they need to beat North Carolina, and then they need to win big-time against Rhode Island and Nevada.

I have zero control over it...but I think the Gophers are capable of that. I'm not saying it will for sure happen but I certainly can see it happening. Even going so far as to say it should happen.
Game one is huge!

 

[Some guy]

I think you will see further expansion of the playoffs eventually, League championship games will be automatic entry into playoff or part of the playoff.
Schools will need more and more money with kids getting paid and the networks will no longer be willing to pay for ALABAMA vs the Citadel non matriculated night school early season games where the audience says at halftime, “ Let’s go shopping or Bye, I’m playing nine holes.”
Eventually, every game will be an Interesting one, in league or inter- league against the best with a bigger more involved playoff and maybe 1-2 less regular season meaningless games against weak sisters.
TV will rule because money rules now that the horse is out of the barn and players are getting payed.

Once there is objective criteria for qualification of the playoff it’ll allow that more.

I somewhat think it may end up being like qualification for the international soccer club competitions. Based on rolling years of stats conferences get a rating that’s re-Adjusted every year. The rating would exclusively take into account non conference play both in season and post season.

If it expands that gets even easier.
Say they went to the FCS - 24 model.

Top 6 SEC
Top 6 big 10
Top 4 ACC + Notre Dame
Top 4 Big 12
Top 1 American
Top 1 Sun Belt
Top 1 MAC
Top 1 Mountain West

Those bids could change year to year based on the performance of the league in non conference

That could be negotiated and settled by league. non-transparent committees I feel like eventually will go away.


If the top few leagues separate completely. That could change things too

 

[GopherTheJugular]

Well, it is dependent on winning. But it is my understanding we are favored vs North Carolina.
We likely will be vs Rhode Island and Nevada.
Brings us to iowa...if we are 3 and 0 playing at home...don't you think we will be favored?
Michigan is not in my equation, other than if we would compete at Michigan and win or lose close...less than 15 points...say
Unless USC is undefeated and scoring 50 points a game I believe we will be favored there too?
All seems pretty likely to me if we win our first four games. Gotta beat North Carolina for any scenario to be relevant.
And USC has LSU, Utah St at Michigan and Wisconsin before us.

We won't be favored against USC for one simple reason: if we were, a TON of money would pour in for USC and there wouldn't be nearly enough bets on the other side for any casino to even consider taking that risk.

Betting lines and such are set to get an approximately equal amount of action on both sides. They are not set based upon how some casino employee actually thinks the game will turn out.

 

[ajmadison]

Once there is objective criteria for qualification of the playoff it’ll allow that more.

I somewhat think it may end up being like qualification for the international soccer club competitions. Based on rolling years of stats conferences get a rating that’s re-Adjusted every year. The rating would exclusively take into account non conference play both in season and post season.

If it expands that gets even easier.
Say they went to the FCS - 24 model.

Top 6 SEC
Top 6 big 10
Top 4 ACC + Notre Dame
Top 4 Big 12
Top 1 American
Top 1 Sun Belt
Top 1 MAC
Top 1 Mountain West

Those bids could change year to year based on the performance of the league in non conference

That could be negotiated and settled by league. non-transparent committees I feel like eventually will go away.


If the top few leagues separate completely. That could change things too

Could work that way in mega leagues also, say, Indiana has three successive terrible years in Big Ten , maybe they fall out of the league and maybe a Central Michigan type team that has been undefeated in the lower ranks ( non championship eligible) moves up into the Big in football ……….
There would be formulas forcing schools to actually try to compete to be in the running ……

 

[60's Guy]

We won't be favored against USC for one simple reason: if we were, a TON of money would pour in for USC and there wouldn't be nearly enough bets on the other side for any casino to even consider taking that risk.

Betting lines and such are set to get an approximately equal amount of action on both sides. They are not set based upon how some casino employee actually thinks the game will turn out.

Bottom line I don't care lol I just want to win those first 5 home games. Ha

 

[ajmadison]

Bottom line I don't care lol I just want to win those first 5 home games. Ha

That’s what makes college football so great, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minn, Nebraska every fanbase this time of the year is trying to justify why they will start 5-0 and why the other schools fan bases are not being realistic .LOL

 

[Some guy]

Could work that way in mega leagues also, say, Indiana has three successive terrible years in Big Ten , maybe they fall out of the league and maybe a Central Michigan type team that has been undefeated in the lower ranks ( non championship eligible) moves up into the Big in football ……….
There would be formulas forcing schools to actually try to compete to be in the running ……

I don’t think relegation will ever happen. The logical place to have done it would’ve been MLS and they didn’t do it because of the financial instability and unpredictability it creates

It only exists in club soccer because it existed before major contracts existed

 

[Gophers1992]

This is a little bit of a word salad, but if I'm deciphering it correctly, you're saying there's a chance we'll be favored in 5 of the first 6 games?

I will bet you any amount of money you wish at any odds you desire that that doesn't happen.

Isn't this all just a long way of saying we will or won't be favored against USC?

 

[dpodoll68]

Isn't this all just a long way of saying we will or won't be favored against USC?

I wouldn't be surprised if we are underdogs against either or both of UNC and Iowa.

 

[Gophers1992]

I wouldn't be surprised if we are underdogs against either or both of UNC and Iowa.

Could happen, although oddsmakers have us as -2 right now for week 1.

I'm just saying anyone making that statement is certainly assuming we are favored against UNC and Iowa, and most people should know we won't be favored in Ann Arbor.

 

[dpodoll68]

Could happen, although oddsmakers have us as -2 right now for week 1.

I'm just saying anyone making that statement is certainly assuming we are favored against UNC and Iowa, and most people should know we won't be favored in Ann Arbor.

It will be interesting to see if the oddsmakers believe we're that much better or UNC is that much worse - or maybe a little bit of both. UNC beat our ass last year, and using the Sagarin ratings from 2023-24 season end, our lines would be:

vs. UNC - Gophers +6
vs. Iowa - Gophers +5
vs. USC - Gophers +12

So if that -2 line holds, that means an 8-point swing in our favor with no games played. If they believe we're that much better, maybe we could be favored against Iowa. But I assume most of that 8-point swing is them dinging UNC because they lost a top-of-the-1st-round generational QB, and if that's the case, we're not going to be favored against Iowa unless we comfortably beat UNC and pound both of the cupcakes.

And at any rate, unless we win each of our first 4 games by 40 and keep it close with Michigan, we're not going to be favored against USC.

 

[Gophers1992]

It will be interesting to see if the oddsmakers believe we're that much better or UNC is that much worse - or maybe a little bit of both. UNC beat our ass last year, and using the Sagarin ratings from 2023-24 season end, our lines would be:

vs. UNC - Gophers +6
vs. Iowa - Gophers +5
vs. USC - Gophers +12

So if that -2 line holds, that means an 8-point swing in our favor with no games played. If they believe we're that much better, maybe we could be favored against Iowa. But I assume most of that 8-point swing is them dinging UNC because they lost a top-of-the-1st-round generational QB, and if that's the case, we're not going to be favored against Iowa unless we comfortably beat UNC and pound both of the cupcakes.

And at any rate, unless we win each of our first 4 games by 40 and keep it close with Michigan, we're not going to be favored against USC.

I agree, although I would take you up on that “any dollar amount and any odds” comment. I’ll bet a dollar if you give me 1 million to 1 odds.